What is an acceptable expectation for a Gopher Men’s Basketball Head Coach?

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Otis

Otis

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Note: not Coyle’s expectations but this boards!

If we could make the NCAA’s 2 out of every 5 years, I think that would be a reasonable expectation. This would require finishing in the top half of the conference at the same rate. These last 4 years have made for rose colored glass viewing on the Pitino and Tubby years! (Which is really saying something!)

I kind of think the Dutcher and Clem level is going to be legendary and unreachable unless some massive NIL gets funneled into the program no matter who the coach is. Especially when HS top recruits are going to make millions in NIL before ever touching an NCAA court!

What would you be happy with?
 

I’d say 2 out of 4 tournaments. But 5 as you said is good too.

That shouldn’t be that hard.

First thing we have to do tho under the next coach. Schedule a smart non con. Enough of this playing 11 non con games where maybe 1 game actually helps the resume from a quality win/loss stand point.
 


Match the success of Iowa State and wisconsin. If past success isn't an option to match, then current and going forward. There's zero excuse that both those programs should be so far ahead of us. They have no built in advantages that we don't.

Go Gophers!!
 





In a 10 year stretch I'd say:

9/10 make B1G tournament
5/10 make NCAA tournament
2/10 miss but on the bubble

Win say 4 ncaa tournament games, make 1-2 finals runs in conf tournament.

Schedule better home and home games. Play in respectable MTE in say 6 of 10 years.

That essentially means 7 of 10 years we are respectable. Allows 3 years in there where maybe injuries hit, transfers out hurt, guys don't pan out etc.
 

It's hard to know where it goes with 18 teams. When there were 11 and then 12 teams the Big Ten often got 7 teams in the tournament. Then in 2014-15 we went to 14 teams and it bounces but mostly we got 7, 8 or 9 teams in. So, with 18 teams in a good year we'll have 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament? You gotta be top 15 to make the Big Ten Tournament. So there isn't much space...you are either decent or you suck. And most teams are decent. Why can't we join that group?

Obviously, we haven't done it...but is it really unreasonable to go to the NCAA Tournament like 9 outta 10 years? It should be kinda similar to going to a bowl game in football? We need to be in the top 12 of the conference. Is there a coach any where who doesn't expect to at least finish in the top half of the conference each year? (Now 9th frickin' place or better) The minimum goal has
to be to make the dang tournament every year. Anything less is just too sad.

We can't keep lowering the bar.
 



Can I just go with have an identity on the court? Like we’ll be up and down and may not always be good, but I would like to have a team that’s known for something, recruits to it, and executes it on the court
 

BleedGopher said:
Match the success of Iowa State and wisconsin. If past success isn't an option to match, then current and going forward. There's zero excuse that both those programs should be so far ahead of us. They have no built in advantages that we don't.

Go Gophers!!
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Add Marquette and Iowa as well. Iowa is the worst of those 4 programs, but they’re the ‘92 Bulls in comparison to what we’ve put on the court the last handful of years. I’m with you; there is absolutely no reason they should have demonstrable advantages over the U. In fact, IMO, at least three of those schools really should have disadvantages compared to the U. We just choose to accept mediocrity and really lame excuses.
 

In the last 12 years, Iowa has finished below .500 in conference play 1 time. Last season broke a streak of 5 straight years where they were ranked at least at some point in the season. They still struggle to get interest in their program despite that success while playing a really fun style of play.
Minnesota has had so much more basketball talent than Iowa over the last 15 years, yet the state has had two (and more recently 3) teams better than the Gophers almost every year. It's Iowa State, Iowa, and then Drake or Northern Iowa. Then both teams in Wisconsin are better. In the past couple years both teams in Nebraska have been better.

It's hard to see how the right coach wouldn't have success here. Tubby needed to get it to the point where his name sold the recruiting because he didn't want to grind anymore and he was very close to doing that. We'll never know but I think it's possible Tubby has kind of a Dana Altman at Oregon type run here if Maturi just lets White and Mbakwe play. Since that point, we've hired two guys who had no business in a Big Ten job and have gotten the expected results.
 

leib0039 said:
In a 10 year stretch I'd say:

9/10 make B1G tournament
5/10 make NCAA tournament
2/10 miss but on the bubble

Win say 4 ncaa tournament games, make 1-2 finals runs in conf tournament.

Schedule better home and home games. Play in respectable MTE in say 6 of 10 years.

That essentially means 7 of 10 years we are respectable. Allows 3 years in there where maybe injuries hit, transfers out hurt, guys don't pan out etc.
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Clem actually did that. He named his daughter Clemette but otherwise was fine with me.
 



Otis said:
Note: not Coyle’s expectations but this boards!

If we could make the NCAA’s 2 out of every 5 years, I think that would be a reasonable expectation. This would require finishing in the top half of the conference at the same rate. These last 4 years have made for rose colored glass viewing on the Pitino and Tubby years! (Which is really saying something!)

I kind of think the Dutcher and Clem level is going to be legendary and unreachable unless some massive NIL gets funneled into the program no matter who the coach is. Especially when HS top recruits are going to make millions in NIL before ever touching an NCAA court!

What would you be happy with?
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Clem and Dutcher levels should not be unreachable. Aside from the Final Four year, Clem's best Big Ten record was 11-7. He was 10-8 four times, 9-9 once and 8-10 once (aside from rebuilding years). He was basically .500 in the conference and lived on the bubble, but struck gold twice in the tournament -- which is what the tournament is all about.

Dutcher inherited the great team in 76-77 and was 12-6 to finish second the next year. After that he had the great Big 10 championship team in 1982, but only finished above .500 (10-8) one other time through 85-86 (two 9-9 teams).

They were good coaches and we remember them fondly, but they essentially coached .500 teams that popped up once or twice to give us great seasons and memories. A coach who can get us back to .500 in the Big Ten on a mostly regular basis and in position to get to the NCAA tournament three or even four years out of five shouldn't be too much to ask for.
 

Hates Monikers said:
Clem and Dutcher levels should not be unreachable. Aside from the Final Four year, Clem's best Big Ten record was 11-7. He was 10-8 four times, 9-9 once and 8-10 once (aside from rebuilding years). He was basically .500 in the conference and lived on the bubble, but struck gold twice in the tournament -- which is what the tournament is all about.

Dutcher inherited the great team in 76-77 and was 12-6 to finish second the next year. After that he had the great Big 10 championship team in 1982, but only finished above .500 (10-8) one other time through 85-86 (two 9-9 teams).

They were good coaches and we remember them fondly, but they essentially coached .500 teams that popped up once or twice to give us great seasons and memories. A coach who can get us back to .500 in the Big Ten on a mostly regular basis and in position to get to the NCAA tournament three or even four years out of five shouldn't be too much to ask for.
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I can recall national pundits in 1996-7 saying that the Gophers had a chance to be a perennial top 25 program. That's how close we were. And then Ganglegate.... 30 years in the wilderness.
 

EG#9 said:
It's hard to see how the right coach wouldn't have success here. Tubby needed to get it to the point where his name sold the recruiting because he didn't want to grind anymore and he was very close to doing that. We'll never know but I think it's possible Tubby has kind of a Dana Altman at Oregon type run here if Maturi just lets White and Mbakwe play. Since that point, we've hired two guys who had no business in a Big Ten job and have gotten the expected results.
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To be in the B1G and have your last two coaches have a grand total of 1 season of head coaching experience between them when hired is utterly ridiculous IMO. While all coaching hires are gambles, to hire a guy with no head coaching experience at a P4/5 program is an unnecessarily large gamble.

Since 2010, here is the list of B1G coaches with no NCAA head coaching experience. **indicates they had previous NBA head coaching experience, but including them on the list. I'm also including Shrewsbury (*), as his head coaching experience was back in 05-07 at IU South Bend (NAIA), and not including his record at that school in the numbers below.

Coach, School (conference record)
Jake Diebler, tOSU (5-1)
Ben Johnson, MN (15-44)
Mike Woodson, IU** (31-29)
Micah Shrewsbury, PSU* (24-36)
Juwan Howard, Mich (49-48)
Greg Gard, UW (104-70)
Eddie Jordan, Rut** (8-46)
Chris Collins, NU (80-129)

Shrewsbury was moderately successful at PSU, then somewhat oddly hired away. Woodson has been a disappointment at IU, considering the expectations and massive advantages he has. Howard had a really good run one year surrounded by his incompetence and inability to control himself. Chris Collins has had a good couple last years, preceded by middling results. Out of all of those, Greg Gard is really the only one you can look to as having even above average results. The rest of the lot is somewhere between disastrous to average at best.
 
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I am very jealous of what Wisconsin has created. They are getting MN recruits that know they are sitting their first year, and they would rather do that than get significant minutes for the gophers. They see the conf wins, the ncaa tourney most year, and every once in a while, a tourney run!

Other than their campus not being in the inner city, they have no advantages over us on paper.
They hire proven coaches, they have consistency, and if you arent a mcdonalds all american and you grow up in MN or Wisc they are a top choice!

I can only dream. Hate on them and their style all you want. Give me that program!
 


leib0039 said:
In a 10 year stretch I'd say:

9/10 make B1G tournament
5/10 make NCAA tournament
2/10 miss but on the bubble

Win say 4 ncaa tournament games, make 1-2 finals runs in conf tournament.

Schedule better home and home games. Play in respectable MTE in say 6 of 10 years.

That essentially means 7 of 10 years we are respectable. Allows 3 years in there where maybe injuries hit, transfers out hurt, guys don't pan out etc.
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This isn't really needed. Not exactly at least.

Many MTE's are pretty worthless. And a lot of teams are realizing it. Get in rotation for big ones like Maui and Atlantis. But some of the 4 teamer ones especially are blah. And if results are wonky you may end up facing random teams not expected to face and it not help metrics as much.

That's why a lot of teams are shifting to hosting MTEs if not in the big events. Get home game vs cupcakes and opens up to scheduling high majors for set games.

That's the focus. We need to(whether its an MTE, neutral 1 off, home home) have at minimum of 5 marquee non con games a year, 6 should be the goal.

Ben has done a horrific job scheduling to this point. I do understand part of that will involved being good enough that a team like Texas Tech finds it worth their time to give us a home and home
 

forever a gopher said:
Add Marquette
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Marquette is a different animal - a private school that spends almost its entire athletic budget on hoops.

march madness said:
In addition, they lose 4 starters from last year.
They must be down right?
#15 in the country currently! 7-0!
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Well, 3 (Wahl/Storr/Hepburn - Essegian was lost, too, but he had lost not just his starting role, but his whole spot in the rotation), But the point stands. Coaching makes a difference.
march madness said:
Other than their campus not being in the inner city, they have no advantages over us on paper.
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I doubt "college-town feel" is a factor for recruits/transfers at all.

As to the question, if it's going to be a given that there's a lower NIL budget relative to the competition, you have to be demonstrably excellent at x's and o's, motivation, and accountability for execution because you will have less talent. Teams like this make the tourney all the time, though, because they're true teams. They won't win the darn thing, but they can be competitive.
 

formerlybis said:
Marquette is a different animal - a private school that spends almost its entire athletic budget on hoops.


Well, 3 (Wahl/Storr/Hepburn - Essegian was lost, too, but he had lost not just his starting role, but his whole spot in the rotation), But the point stands. Coaching makes a difference.

I doubt "college-town feel" is a factor for recruits/transfers at all.

As to the question, if it's going to be a given that there's a lower NIL budget relative to the competition, you have to be demonstrably excellent at x's and o's, motivation, and accountability for execution because you will have less talent. Teams like this make the tourney all the time, though, because they're true teams. They won't win the darn thing, but they can be competitive.
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Gard knows his system, he has seen it work and he knows how to find players that fit it.

Ben has never seen his system- whatever it is- work. So he seems uncertain what types of players he can be successful with. The one season it looked okay- he had a fast PG. The three seasons that we embraced the suck- he's had slow ones. That much I can see.
 

Tubby level success has to be achievable. We fired him in a year we went to the second round after making the tourney 3 of 6 years. If that is worth firing a coach, the bar has to be higher than that.

I don't want to hear about NIL and the new environment as a ceiling until we are out-performing Iowa, Iowa State, and Wisconsin. There is no reason we can't be at their level. If we get to a point where we are among the best non-blue bloods in the country, and still not at the mountain top, then I'll entertain the notion that we've reached our ceiling.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Tubby level success has to be achievable. We fired him in a year we went to the second round after making the tourney 3 of 6 years. If that is worth firing a coach, the bar has to be higher than that.

I don't want to hear about NIL and the new environment as a ceiling until we are out-performing Iowa, Iowa State, and Wisconsin. There is no reason we can't be at their level. If we get to a point where we are among the best non-blue bloods in the country, and still not at the mountain top, then I'll entertain the notion that we've reached our ceiling.
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Minnesota's problems have always been systemic. The culture of the University itself lends itself to a culture of mediocrity. A coach, as good as they may be, may not be able to overcome the culture of the University as a whole.
 

FinnGopher said:
Minnesota's problems have always been systemic. The culture of the University itself lends itself to a culture of mediocrity. A coach, as good as they may be, may not be able to overcome the culture of the University as a whole.
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Whatever culture problems the U itself has, we know from the Tubby years that winning at least 42% of your conference games and making the tournament halftime time is achievable here. And that would be night and day better than what we've been getting.
 

Give me a coach who can navigate the portal well and actually scout talent.

Top 30-50 team every year, be in the top 25 conversation now and again, make the dance once in a while.

Doesn’t seam like much to ask 😭
 

Gophers need a PJ Fleck for basketball. Someone who has a very good track record at a school. Someone who has a culture and a vision and can recruit, improve players, and even convince many to return for 5th seasons! He also has brought in better transfers than he has lost. I know the NIL s better, but would it be if gopher football was as bad as basketball?
 


forever a gopher said:
To be in the B1G and have your last two coaches have a grand total of 1 season of head coaching experience between them when hired is utterly ridiculous IMO. While all coaching hires are gambles, to hire a guy with no head coaching experience at a P4/5 program is an unnecessarily large gamble.
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The University of Minnesota is a research university. This has been one big, long experiment. And we’re all lab rats. 😳
 

Trying to figure out what a reasonable expectation is for making the NCAA Tournament is an interesting question.

Clem - 13 years - 6 tournaments (3 of those fell during the Ganglegate mess)
Monson - 8 years - 1 tournament (little tough to judge him fairly with the penalties he dealt with)
Tubby - 6 years - 3 tournaments
Pitino - 8 years - 2 tournaments

2 NCAA tournaments every 5 years feels like a decent baseline expectation with the hope for more. That is basically what Fran has done at Iowa.

Above and beyond that.....if the Big Ten stays with their current structure for a while then expectation should be qualifying for the Big Ten tournament most years and finishing top half of the conference on a somewhat regular basis.
 


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