What grade would you give the Gophers 2019 football recruiting class?

[caliGopher]

By that standard an A would be basically impossible for us to obtain because the chances of out recruiting Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State is next to zero most years.

This is the thinking PJ Fleck is trying to overcome. It’s not a forgone conclusion. Good, not great class. We’ve improved recruiting, but not by as much as we need to.

Lots of excuses being tossed out as to why we can’t expect better. The total disaster of a DC hire is the biggest reason we didn’t win more this year, and probably last year.

Fleck was hired to dramatically change our recruiting results. He’s improved them, but not enough. Good classes to build from. It needs to be better. This class, claimed to be equal to last year is great, except the schools around us last year improved, so by being equal this is less talent relative to the competition. Given fluctuations and bias in the recruiting rankings, how we do relative to the big ten is more important to me as we look to adopt Fleck’s model of winning by having better recruits than the opposition.


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[die hard gopher]

B right now.

Would be an A if we can get both Williams and Houston to sign.

B+ if only Williams, A- if only Houston.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Yep. Also a question....why are people so pleased when we lost ground with this class on paper?

It is a slight step back from last year, but right now I am grading y comparing to Gopher classes from the fairly recent past. I get that relative to the B1G the improvement is much smaller than the spots gained in rankings. I also believe that classes consistently in the 35-45 range are plenty talent wise to work with to get this program to the next level of success, which in turn should move to classes consistently in the 25-35 range.

All depends on elevating winning, though. Can't continue to be around .500 and expect to be able to pull in classes in that 35-45 range.

 

[btowngopher]

You guys can keep railing on me but look where we are in the B1G. Average, C is average. You guys want and accept average, that's fine I don't. You know what they say about the common man.

So you grade solely on how the class compares to the rest of the conference? So if every Big10 team finished in the top 20, but we were 8th you’d still grade it a C?

 

[btowngopher]

This is the thinking PJ Fleck is trying to overcome. It’s not a forgone conclusion. Good, not great class. We’ve improved recruiting, but not by as much as we need to.

Lots of excuses being tossed out as to why we can’t expect better. The total disaster of a DC hire is the biggest reason we didn’t win more this year, and probably last year.

Fleck was hired to dramatically change our recruiting results. He’s improved them, but not enough. Good classes to build from. It needs to be better. This class, claimed to be equal to last year is great, except the schools around us last year improved, so by being equal this is less talent relative to the competition. Given fluctuations and bias in the recruiting rankings, how we do relative to the big ten is more important to me as we look to adopt Fleck’s model of winning by having better recruits than the opposition.


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How do you know we haven’t improved recruiting enough at this point?

 

[UMwolverine]

As an outside observer, I would give Fleck a solid B. He has Minnesota in good shape because there are two young QBs already on campus. Also, it's not really a level playing field in recruiting. Then there can also be luck involved. Purdue has a very good recruiting class, but I wonder how much lower it would be without George Karlaftis? Brohm would have to be a major screw up to not pull him into the class (from the Athletic:

When George Karlaftis says he lives close to Purdue, he’s sort of underselling it.

The five-star defensive end’s home in West Lafayette, Ind., is a mile north of campus, but it feels more like just a couple blocks. His mom Amy says the drive over to Ross-Ade Stadium takes two minutes.

Karlaftis did not make his commitment to Purdue in the fall of 2017 purely out of convenience. Growing up, Purdue has long been a constant. Amy Karlaftis graduated from Purdue, and so did all four of her siblings. Her parents were big enough fans of the school that their youngest son’s middle name is Purdue. She works for their company, which owns and manages rental properties all over campus.

And now her oldest son gets to carry on their proud tradition in an immense way.

“There’s nothing like playing for your hometown,” George Karlaftis told The Athletic. “To feel like a hometown hero is pretty cool.”

 

[upnorthkid]

Yep. Also a question....why are people so pleased when we lost ground with this class on paper?

Lost ground based on what? I'm not saying you're wrong, asking what metric you're using so I don't say something pointless

 

[OddStack]

Lost ground based on what? I'm not saying you're wrong, asking what metric you're using so I don't say something pointless

Last year 7th in B1G and 2nd in B1G West.
This year 8th in B1G and 4th in B1G West.

On paper the gap increased in talent and didn't decrease. Obviously, things can still change until Feb.

 

[btowngopher]

Michigan, OSU, PSU, and Nebraska are the only BIG10 teams that finish in the top 30 most years. We are right there with the rest of the conference.

 

[GopherHusky]

The class filled need on the defensive side of the ball, or at least appears to addrsss it. I’m excited to see the additions on offense, and another year of growth from the OL and QBs. The future is bright.

 

[BilldGopher]

B seems about right.

I think I've seen at times threads about how an earlier year's class performed down the line. If most of these stay with the program the full 4-5 years and graduate, then I'd guess looking back at that (future) time might grade it higher.

We're still at a level where we need to coach-up whoever wears Maroon and Anthracite...so it's in Coach's hands at this time.

 

[Dano564]

There are some real winners on here.

A couple facts from the last 12 classes of recruits.

1.
Over the last 12 years, 13 different Big Ten teams have tried to out-recruit Ohio State. That's 156 different classes.
So far 1 out of those 156 classes ranked higher than Ohio State. Currently it's Michigan's 2019 class so it's too early to say.

2.
The only time a team other than PSU, Michigan, or OSU was in the Top 3 of Big Ten classes was years when PSU or Michigan had unusually low classes.
2015 - Michigan 37th
2013 - Penn St 33rd
2012 - Penn State 47th
2011 - Penn State 31st
2010 - Ohio State 18th (worst class of the 12 years)
2008 - Penn State 40th

Those three averaged in those 12 years
OSU 6th in the nation
Michigan 14th in the nation
PSU 22nd in the nation

3.
During those 12 years, there have been 168 different recruiting classes.
32 of those 168 were Top 20 classes.
OSU had 12
Michigan had 9
Penn State had 7

All other Big Ten Teams: 4 MSU 2 (2010, 2016), Nebraska 1 (2011), Maryland 1 (2017)
By this measure, of being in the top 3 to have an A, no teams have had an A recruiting class except for those 4 classes.

 

[Dano564]

How do you know we haven’t improved recruiting enough at this point?

He just knows.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

There are some real winners on here.

A couple facts from the last 12 classes of recruits.

1.
Over the last 12 years, 13 different Big Ten teams have tried to out-recruit Ohio State. That's 156 different classes.
So far 1 out of those 156 classes ranked higher than Ohio State. Currently it's Michigan's 2019 class so it's too early to say.

2.
The only time a team other than PSU, Michigan, or OSU was in the Top 3 of Big Ten classes was years when PSU or Michigan had unusually low classes.
2015 - Michigan 37th
2013 - Penn St 33rd
2012 - Penn State 47th
2011 - Penn State 31st
2010 - Ohio State 18th (worst class of the 12 years)
2008 - Penn State 40th

Those three averaged in those 12 years
OSU 6th in the nation
Michigan 14th in the nation
PSU 22nd in the nation

3.
During those 12 years, there have been 168 different recruiting classes.
32 of those 168 were Top 20 classes.
OSU had 12
Michigan had 9
Penn State had 7

All other Big Ten Teams: 4 MSU 2 (2010, 2016), Nebraska 1 (2011), Maryland 1 (2017)
By this measure, of being in the top 3 to have an A, no teams have had an A recruiting class except for those 4 classes.

Thanks for this post.

 

[Dano564]

In the years these teams won the Big Ten, this is what their average class rankings were:

For 2018, 2017, 2016, 2014, Big Ten was won by OSU or PSU with very highly recruited classes.

For the years lower ranked classes won:

2015 MSU
Average of last 4 classes: 30th

2013 MSU
Average of last 4 classes: 30th

2012 Wisconsin
Average of last 4 classes: 49th

2011 Wisconsin
Average of last 4 classes: 42nd

2010 Wisconsin
Average of last 4 classes: 39th

2010 MSU
Average of last 4 classes: 33rd

2009 OSU
Average of last 4 classes: 28th

2008 OSU
Average of last 4 classes: 45th

2008 PSU
Average of last 4 classes: 27th

2007 OSU
Average of last 4 classes: 56th

Older than this the data really starts to get more incomplete.

 

[Dano564]

To compete for a national title, most teams are blue bloods that have perennial top 10 classes.
The "outliers" could be the 2016 Clemson team which was not great for a longer period of time.

Leading up to their 2016 National Title, their recruiting classes were ranked:

2016 -11
2015 -9
2014 -16
2013 - 15
2012 - 20
2011 - 10
2010 - 27
2009 - 36 (Dabo head coach)
2008 - 9
2007 - 16

The only other outlier similar would be Oregon who competed for titles in 2014 and 2010.

2014 - 21
2013 - 19
2012 - 14
2011 - 12
2010 - 12
2009 - 30
2008 - 34
2007 - 14
2006 - 50
2005 - 31
2004 - 12

 

[John Galt]

There are some real winners on here.

A couple facts from the last 12 classes of recruits.

1.
Over the last 12 years, 13 different Big Ten teams have tried to out-recruit Ohio State. That's 156 different classes.
So far 1 out of those 156 classes ranked higher than Ohio State. Currently it's Michigan's 2019 class so it's too early to say.

2.
The only time a team other than PSU, Michigan, or OSU was in the Top 3 of Big Ten classes was years when PSU or Michigan had unusually low classes.
2015 - Michigan 37th
2013 - Penn St 33rd
2012 - Penn State 47th
2011 - Penn State 31st
2010 - Ohio State 18th (worst class of the 12 years)
2008 - Penn State 40th

Those three averaged in those 12 years
OSU 6th in the nation
Michigan 14th in the nation
PSU 22nd in the nation

3.
During those 12 years, there have been 168 different recruiting classes.
32 of those 168 were Top 20 classes.
OSU had 12
Michigan had 9
Penn State had 7

All other Big Ten Teams: 4 MSU 2 (2010, 2016), Nebraska 1 (2011), Maryland 1 (2017)
By this measure, of being in the top 3 to have an A, no teams have had an A recruiting class except for those 4 classes.

Great post, thanks for your work. It shows that anyone expecting a top 20-25 class as this juncture is wearing blinders.

 

[OddStack]

64 power 5 teams...not including the independents...let's say 70. What is half of 70?

Our classes our better than they have been, and we have to walk before you can crawl. In some respects it's better, but why are we so desperate to claim things are good to great (A/B grades)? We've been told PJ is a great recruiter, yet we are in the middle of the B1G and in the middle of Power 5s. The 50th percentile screams average. He appears to be good at recruiting, but how can you not be with the inheriant benefits PJ has: 1. youth and relatability 2. sparkling new digs. That alone should help. Sadly, I feel we are average. We are the lousiest of the best and best of the lousiest.

 

[rugger14]

64 power 5 teams...not including the independents...let's say 70. What is half of 70?

Our classes our better than they have been, and we have to walk before you can crawl. In some respects it's better, but why are we so desperate to claim things are good to great (A/B grades)? We've been told PJ is a great recruiter, yet we are in the middle of the B1G and in the middle of Power 5s. The 50th percentile screams average. He appears to be good at recruiting, but how can you not be with the inheriant benefits PJ has: 1. youth and relatability 2. sparkling new digs. That alone should help. Sadly, I feel we are average. We are the lousiest of the best and best of the lousiest.

He is recruiting better than any coach in recent Gopher history. The deck is stacked against us. The rich get richer in college football. Pay Saban 10 million and he would not come here. It would take Nick frickin Saban years to build this program. He had no interest in getting crappy recruiting classes. That is why he left MSU. Even he could not win it all there. He might be able to bring a top 25 class to Minnesota on name alone.

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[Dano564]

64 power 5 teams...not including the independents...let's say 70. What is half of 70?

Our classes our better than they have been, and we have to walk before you can crawl. In some respects it's better, but why are we so desperate to claim things are good to great (A/B grades)? We've been told PJ is a great recruiter, yet we are in the middle of the B1G and in the middle of Power 5s. The 50th percentile screams average. He appears to be good at recruiting, but how can you not be with the inheriant benefits PJ has: 1. youth and relatability 2. sparkling new digs. That alone should help. Sadly, I feel we are average. We are the lousiest of the best and best of the lousiest.

1. You are using bad math. There are 9 non-BCS teams in the top 70 this year. If you truly want to talk all BCS, you need to include the worst teams as well, all the way down to Kansas at 106. You can't just pick numbers that are convenient for your narrative. Your failure to do so outlines a possible bias in the results you are seeking to share to make PJ's results seem average instead of improved.

2. By almost any practical measure, our last two classes our better than our average, our mean, our best year, or our averages placement compared to other Big Ten Teams over the last 8 years. This could be found rather easily if you were attempting to compare against previous results but you choose not to.

3. Your argument about PJ being a good recruiter is disingenuous at worst and is disparaging of the previous staff's ability to recruit at best. To imply that PJ is a better recruiter (which he has shown) but to such a degree that he would somehow surpass the results of of our previous staffs to that degree has no basis in reality of current day recruiting.

4. You are over-valuing our new facilities. Your belief is that somehow between PJ's ability to our recruit our previous staffs by such a large degree, and by magically mating that with our new facilities, we should be able to trump the facilities of other programs who have had strong recent results. If you believe MN has better facilities than Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Florida, Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, etc, then you would have a fair argument.

Outselling other Universities who have better recent results and better facilities by a large margin is nearly impossible in a free market. (as I outlined in my other post of Big Ten recruiting results).
Only those who would accomplish that immediately without recent results would be that of a salesman who carries snake oil. It appears that's by the expectations you outline, you are hoping for PJ to be someone who sells by swindle.

 

[btowngopher]

64 power 5 teams...not including the independents...let's say 70. What is half of 70?

Our classes our better than they have been, and we have to walk before you can crawl. In some respects it's better, but why are we so desperate to claim things are good to great (A/B grades)? We've been told PJ is a great recruiter, yet we are in the middle of the B1G and in the middle of Power 5s. The 50th percentile screams average. He appears to be good at recruiting, but how can you not be with the inheriant benefits PJ has: 1. youth and relatability 2. sparkling new digs. That alone should help. Sadly, I feel we are average. We are the lousiest of the best and best of the lousiest.

Told by who that he is a great recruiter?

 

[btowngopher]

1. You are using bad math. There are 9 non-BCS teams in the top 70 this year. If you truly want to talk all BCS, you need to include the worst teams as well, all the way down to Kansas at 106. You can't just pick numbers that are convenient for your narrative. Your failure to do so outlines a possible bias in the results you are seeking to share to make PJ's results seem average instead of improved.

2. By almost any practical measure, our last two classes our better than our average, our mean, our best year, or our averages placement compared to other Big Ten Teams over the last 8 years. This could be found rather easily if you were attempting to compare against previous results but you choose not to.

3. Your argument about PJ being a good recruiter is disingenuous at worst and is disparaging of the previous staff's ability to recruit at best. To imply that PJ is a better recruiter (which he has shown) but to such a degree that he would somehow surpass the results of of our previous staffs to that degree has no basis in reality of current day recruiting.

4. You are over-valuing our new facilities. Your belief is that somehow between PJ's ability to our recruit our previous staffs by such a large degree, and by magically mating that with our new facilities, we should be able to trump the facilities of other programs who have had strong recent results. If you believe MN has better facilities than Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Florida, Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, etc, then you would have a fair argument.

Outselling other Universities who have better recent results and better facilities by a large margin is nearly impossible in a free market. (as I outlined in my other post of Big Ten recruiting results).
Only those who would accomplish that immediately without recent results would be that of a salesman who carries snake oil. It appears that's by the expectations you outline, you are hoping for PJ to be someone who sells by swindle.

For point 4, Dinardo was saying that he believes having new facilities are vastly over rated as a recruiting tool.

 

[Dano564]

One could theorize that once you improve your class, you should only keep improving, and that if you are a good recruiter, your recruitings should jump significantly. This has not happened often.

Out of 168 classes (dating back to 2007), only 18 of those classes did rankings improve by more than 20 spots for that University over the previous year. The list is:

OSU 2008
Michigan 2012
Michigan 2016
Penn State 2009
Wisconsin 2013
Purdue 2012
Purdue 2018
Purdue 2019
Indiana 2011
Maryland 2017
Iowa 2010
Northwestern 2007
Minnesota 2008
Minnesota 2018
Illinois 2011
Illinois 2015
Illinois 2017
Rutgers 2011
Rutgers 2017

Out of those 19 years of significant jumps, in the following year this happened:

Of those 19, 6 classes had double digit drops the following years.
Northwestern 2007
Illinois 2011
Illinois 2015
Rutgers 2017
Maryland 2017
Purdue 2012

Two had a single digit drop the following year:
Illinois 2017
Indiana 2011
Minnesota 2008

One was this year so we don't know next year:
Purdue 2019


Currently PJ's 2019 class is one of 9 where the following class is listed as better rated than previous years:

Minnesota 2018
Purdue 2018
Michigan 2016
Michigan 2012
Ohio State 2008
Penn State 2009
Wisconsin 2013
Iowa 2010
Rutgers 2011

(Four of those 9 were OSU, PSU or Mich)

Purdue is the only scenario where they had 20 point improvements 2 years in a row:
2017 - 72
2018 - 51
2019 - 25 (currently)

For comparison purposes.

Minnesota
2017 - 59
2018 - 38
2019 - 33 (currently)

Just to forewarn you, there were not ANY scenarios where recruiting improved 20 spots, then improved again, then improved again the following year. In each case of a 20 spot jump and following improvement, their was a decline in the third year.

 

[Dano564]

For point 4, Dinardo was saying that he believes having new facilities are vastly over rated as a recruiting tool.

I think it gets you in the game, but I don't think it's the point where it automatically boost you into the top 20.
Very few top 20 teams get there without being highly successful the years prior (or being Michigan).

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

This class is a B with or without Williams. Is there any possibility of adding other recruits besides Williams?

 

[salzie]

For point 4, Dinardo was saying that he believes having new facilities are vastly over rated as a recruiting tool.

I don't think facilities alone get you recruits. But I do think our old facilities turned off some recruits

 

[OddStack]

1. You are using bad math. There are 9 non-BCS teams in the top 70 this year. If you truly want to talk all BCS, you need to include the worst teams as well, all the way down to Kansas at 106. You can't just pick numbers that are convenient for your narrative. Your failure to do so outlines a possible bias in the results you are seeking to share to make PJ's results seem average instead of improved.

2. By almost any practical measure, our last two classes our better than our average, our mean, our best year, or our averages placement compared to other Big Ten Teams over the last 8 years. This could be found rather easily if you were attempting to compare against previous results but you choose not to.

3. Your argument about PJ being a good recruiter is disingenuous at worst and is disparaging of the previous staff's ability to recruit at best. To imply that PJ is a better recruiter (which he has shown) but to such a degree that he would somehow surpass the results of of our previous staffs to that degree has no basis in reality of current day recruiting.

4. You are over-valuing our new facilities. Your belief is that somehow between PJ's ability to our recruit our previous staffs by such a large degree, and by magically mating that with our new facilities, we should be able to trump the facilities of other programs who have had strong recent results. If you believe MN has better facilities than Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Florida, Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, etc, then you would have a fair argument.

Outselling other Universities who have better recent results and better facilities by a large margin is nearly impossible in a free market. (as I outlined in my other post of Big Ten recruiting results).
Only those who would accomplish that immediately without recent results would be that of a salesman who carries snake oil. It appears that's by the expectations you outline, you are hoping for PJ to be someone who sells by swindle.

1. Until non-Power 5 schools make the playoffs....none of this matters.

2. Too bad we don't play our previous teams; we'd be golden. That was my point, we compare ourselves to ourselves. PJ asked the fanbase to change their best and change expectations. Quit comparing us to 50 + years of futility and expect something bigger!!!

3. We've been told that he's a great recruiter not simply better than what we've had. I don't see that. I see a solid recruiter not a great one. How are we getting out recruited by Purdue when it comes to blue chippers if he is a great recruiter? Is it better than what we've seen recently? Yes. Is it solid? Yes, but I'd hardly call it great.

4. I agree with this to a point. I know our facilities are not ELITE, but they aren't holding us back either. We no longer have to be ashamed and can strut a recruit through it in some regards. If we truly have a "great" recruiter, we shouldn't be middle of the pack in the B!G two years in a row with what we have to offer.

You can stick with he's a "great" recruiter. I'll stick with he's good, but I'll expect more from him until I move him into the "great" category. It's time to raise the bar and expect more; start comparing us to our peers rather than our past!

 

[bottlebass]

So you grade solely on how the class compares to the rest of the conference? So if every Big10 team finished in the top 20, but we were 8th you’d still grade it a C?

What a stupid question. When your fairy tale scenario plays out I'll answer it.

 

[bottlebass]

Great post, thanks for your work. It shows that anyone expecting a top 20-25 class as this juncture is wearing blinders.

No one is expecting one at this time. That is the goal though. That is what Fleck is promising.

 

[OddStack]

What a stupid question. When your fairy tale scenario plays out I'll answer it.

I'll answer it. I wouldn't give it a C, but I wouldn't be super pumped either. That means we have less talent and will have to outcoach everyone, so we would be a bottom dweller with a losing record in a good conference. Similar to bottom SEC schools.