Time Is Running Out: 19 regular-season wins will shag Gophers a NCAA bid

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SelectionSunday

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Updated through TAMU-CC game.

Per request, here's what I have with 21 games remaining in the regular season. As always, this is based on the Gophers "locking up a bid" before the Big Ten Tournament. So this is what I think the Gophers need for a "stress free" conference tournament & Selection Sunday.

For the record, I agree with Face the Facts' assessment posted in a previous thread that 20 wins is the number. Not trying to step on anyone's toes! Essentially I've "tiered" the Big Ten this way, excluding Michigan because the Gophers don't play the Wolverines again. The way the Wolverines are playing right now, they'd probably fall somewhere in Tier 1 or Tier 2.

Tier 1: Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Tier 2: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Tier 3: Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers

With Gophers currently at 8 wins, here's a reasonable path (allowing for a misstep or two) I think can get the Gophers there:

MUST WIN HOME GAMES (go 5-0; currently 1-0)
Dec. 14: TAMU-CORPUS CHRISTI (W)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY
Dec. 29: ALCORN
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

BUCK UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4; these are likely "signature" wins)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State

Some teams obviously won't necessarily fall into the tiers where they were placed. Some teams get better, some get worse. Teams and seasons evolve. So just to throw this out there, I'm not changing the tiers as we go; it's too much work. This is what we're going with!
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Per request, here's what I have with 21 games remaining in the regular season. As always, this is based on the Gophers "locking up a bid" before the Big Ten Tournament. So this is what I think the Gophers need for a "stress free" conference tournament & Selection Sunday.

For the record, I agree with Fact the Facts' assessment posted in a previous thread that 20 wins is the number. Not trying to step on anyone's toes! Essentially I've "tiered" the Big Ten this way, excluding Michigan because the Gophers don't play the Wolverines again. The way the Wolverines are playing right now, they'd probably fall somewhere in Tier 1 or Tier 2.

Tier 1: Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Tier 2: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Tier 3: Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers

With Gophers currently at 8 wins, here's a reasonable path (allowing for a misstep or two) I think can get the Gophers there:

MUST WIN HOME GAMES (go 5-0)
Dec. 14: TEXAS-A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY
Dec. 29: ALCORN
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

BUCK UP, GO GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4; these are likely "signature" wins)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State

Some teams obviously won't necessarily fall into the tiers where they were placed. Some teams get better, some get worse. Teams and seasons evolve. So just to throw this out there, I'm not changing the tiers as we go; it's too much work. This is what we're going with!
Click to expand...
Thanks SS.

is this the first year you didn’t do one to start the season or recent memory?
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Thanks SS.

is this the first year you didn’t do one to start the season or recent memory?
Click to expand...
I think I've done it for 2 or maybe 3 seasons?

Didn't do one this season for obvious reasons. Then the Gophers went out and surprised the heck out of me and most everyone else! Hoping they can make February & March relevant.
 

Thanks.....very informative!! Glad you are back doing that this year as it’s a fun thread to follow!!
 





Corpus Christi worries me a bit. Pretty quick turnaround after a big victory against a 9-1 squad that should be one of the Southland favorites. Won't be a pushover by any means. Game comes right before a long break too. Hope there isn't a letdown.
 

The OSU, @ wisco, Purdue, @ Iowa stretch could be very important
 



Still can't believe we are at a place where it even makes sense to have this thread. Thanks SS for doing this. Funny thing is last year I thought we had the talent to go and was so excited at this point in the season. Then the coaching wheels derailed the train. This year I think the talent may derail us but not the coaching.

I still think only 6 B1G wins will happen now and that is about it. However, that gets us to 16 wins, which means we are right on the edge. Outcoach/work a few more teams and we got it. What a ride this season has been.
 
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mnhoopboy said:
Corpus Christi worries me a bit. Pretty quick turnaround after a big victory against a 9-1 squad that should be one of the Southland favorites. Won't be a pushover by any means. Game comes right before a long break too. Hope there isn't a letdown.
Click to expand...
sagarin's math model is suggesting about a 19 point win.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Per request, here's what I have with 21 games remaining in the regular season. As always, this is based on the Gophers "locking up a bid" before the Big Ten Tournament. So this is what I think the Gophers need for a "stress free" conference tournament & Selection Sunday.

For the record, I agree with Face the Facts' assessment posted in a previous thread that 20 wins is the number. Not trying to step on anyone's toes! Essentially I've "tiered" the Big Ten this way, excluding Michigan because the Gophers don't play the Wolverines again. The way the Wolverines are playing right now, they'd probably fall somewhere in Tier 1 or Tier 2.

Tier 1: Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Tier 2: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Tier 3: Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers

With Gophers currently at 8 wins, here's a reasonable path (allowing for a misstep or two) I think can get the Gophers there:

MUST WIN HOME GAMES (go 5-0)
Dec. 14: TEXAS-A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY
Dec. 29: ALCORN
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

BUCK UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4; these are likely "signature" wins)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State

Some teams obviously won't necessarily fall into the tiers where they were placed. Some teams get better, some get worse. Teams and seasons evolve. So just to throw this out there, I'm not changing the tiers as we go; it's too much work. This is what we're going with!
Click to expand...
If they do this and the 4-4 is win the home games lose the road games…this team will finish with 10-10 and like 3 quad 1 wins.
I think they’d need to avoid a round 1 loss in BTT to be comfortable.

If the 4-4 is a mix of road/home wins I would be more comfortable
 



Thanks Selection Sunday. Always love this post. Just an update on the teams we have played so far. 8 have winning records and one has a losing record. Pretty solid schedule!
KC 5-5
WKU 6-4 (Neutral Site)
Princeton 8-3 (Neutral Site)
PFW 5-5
Jax 5-3
@Pittsburgh 3-7
@Miss. St. 6-3
MSU 8-2
@Mich 6-4
We are 8-1 having played 3 P6 road games, 2 games at neutral sites and only 4 games at home. I just love this team and its coaches! And I love that we have a thread about what they need to do to get into the tournament. Who'd a thought it?
 

gophernut1 said:
Still can't believe we are at a place where it even makes sense to have this thread. Thanks SS for doing this. Funny thing is last year I thought we had the talent to go and was so excited at this point in the season. Then the coaching wheels derailed the train. This year I think the talent may derail us but not the coaching.

I still think only 6 B1G wins will happen now and that is about it. However, that gets us to 16 wins, which means we are right on the edge. Outcoach/work a few more teams and we got it. What a ride this season has been.
Click to expand...
I don't think it's the talent that will derail us, it's the depth:)
 


Some guy said:
If they do this and the 4-4 is win the home games lose the road games…this team will finish with 10-10 and like 3 quad 1 wins.
Click to expand...

That should be enough for a bid, with relatively few, if any, worries.

That said, Strength of Schedule will take a massive hit the next three games. So, there isn't much room for error within SOS's layout. Better get the ones you have to get.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Per request, here's what I have with 21 games remaining in the regular season. As always, this is based on the Gophers "locking up a bid" before the Big Ten Tournament. So this is what I think the Gophers need for a "stress free" conference tournament & Selection Sunday.

For the record, I agree with Face the Facts' assessment posted in a previous thread that 20 wins is the number. Not trying to step on anyone's toes! Essentially I've "tiered" the Big Ten this way, excluding Michigan because the Gophers don't play the Wolverines again. The way the Wolverines are playing right now, they'd probably fall somewhere in Tier 1 or Tier 2.

Tier 1: Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Tier 2: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Tier 3: Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers

With Gophers currently at 8 wins, here's a reasonable path (allowing for a misstep or two) I think can get the Gophers there:

MUST WIN HOME GAMES (go 5-0)
Dec. 14: TEXAS-A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY
Dec. 29: ALCORN
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

BUCK UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4; these are likely "signature" wins)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State

Some teams obviously won't necessarily fall into the tiers where they were placed. Some teams get better, some get worse. Teams and seasons evolve. So just to throw this out there, I'm not changing the tiers as we go; it's too much work. This is what we're going with!
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity, I'm guessing the Kansas City, Fort Wayne, Jacksonville games would have gone in the Must win category. Western Kentucky and Princeton in the Buck up category, maybe Princeton in the 50/50, they seem like the favorites in the Ivy League. Pitt in the buck up? Miss. State in the 50/50 and Sparty and Michigan have fallen in the slay the heavyweights category? Right now I believe Michigan, Michigan State and Mississippi State are quad one opponents. Pitt Net makes that a quad four right now and I believe Princeton is a quad three. Rest of the non con I think is in quad four.
 

Both this and the other thread (someone else just did one like this) -- have the Rutgers home game in the "lowest" category.

Why?

Did they not just beat the #1 ranked team in the country??
 

thought this one was interesting. Predicting Gophers in at an 11 with a 18-12 record

look which other schools they also have as an 11

Bracketology 2024: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament

NCAA bracketology for 2024 from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.com. Our algorithmic models project all 362 NCAA teams and update daily.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com
 

MplsGopher said:
Both this and the other thread (someone else just did one like this) -- have the Rutgers home game in the "lowest" category.

Why?

Did they not just beat the #1 ranked team in the country??
Click to expand...
Rutgers is notoriously awful on the road in conference play. Took them five years to win a big ten road game
 

It will take 15 wins to qualify for the postseason. Pretty psyched that this team is extremely likely already to make a postseason tourney. If you asked me before the season I would have said woohoo yippee yeehaw at an NIT bid...
 

CoMn said:
It will take 15 wins to qualify for the postseason. Pretty psyched that this team is extremely likely already to make a postseason tourney. If you asked me before the season I would have said woohoo yippee yeehaw at an NIT bid...
Click to expand...
15-15 doesn't make the NIT these days. It would probably take 18-12 at least.
 

howeda7 said:
15-15 doesn't make the NIT these days. It would probably take 18-12 at least.
Click to expand...
thought it was .500 or better. for example in the 2019 NIT both texas and Butler played and had 16-16 records
 

GopherOhana said:
thought it was .500 or better. for example in the 2019 NIT both texas and Butler played and had 16-16 records
Click to expand...
That used to be a rule and in the Clem era, any power 5 team that finished .500 made the NIT. That might still be the minimum.

But you basically have to be on the NCAA bubble to make the NIT now, because non-power 5 regular season champs get an auto bid if they lose their conference tournament and mid-majors get more bids now.

Two years ago, when we played 6 power 6 non-conference games, .500 might have been enough. Our non-conference schedule this year is pretty bad. A 15-15 Gopher team would not make it, or even be particularly close, IMO.
 

MplsGopher said:
Both this and the other thread (someone else just did one like this) -- have the Rutgers home game in the "lowest" category.

Why?

Did they not just beat the #1 ranked team in the country??
Click to expand...

I did the other one before this one was posted.

Rutgers NET is 170 and their RPI is about 149. If we are putting together a scenario to make the tournament, you need must-wins, and thus this is the next most likely must win.

We essentially have the same categories. Here are the teams that differ between he and I.

DayH/AOpponentNETRPIAvgSSFTF
February 9, 2022 (Wednesday)AwayNebraska
233​
235​
234​
BU-RoadMust win
March 2, 2022 (Wednesday)AwayMaryland
157​
153​
155​
BU-RoadMust win
January 19, 2022 (Wednesday)AwayPenn State
110​
93​
102​
BU-RoadChance
January 30, 2022 (Sunday)AwayWisconsin
27​
6​
17​
50-50Steal
February 23, 2022 (Wednesday)HomeWisconsin
27​
6​
17​
50-50Steal
 

The Gophers have 21 games left on the schedule. It is a long season playing a seven-player rotation. The bench needs to get up to speed. Then there is the question of whether Parker Fox can heal fast enough.
 

I gotta think 19-11(9-11) gets us a bid, even if we lose the first game of the B1G tournament. 19-12 will put us, most likely, in the 50's of the NET.

Just looking at the other power conferences, the Pac 12 and ACC are at the most going to get 4 bids max. They've been so awful OOC, collectively. Those conferences NET Rankings are at the point where there isn't many opportunities to get good wins. Going 13-7 in the ACC won't mean much, and will mean less than the Gophers going 9-11 in the B1G IMO. Pretty much the same for the P12. Especially if UCLA, USC and Arizona only lose to each other. Might be a 3 bid league is that's the case. Both only have 4 teams in the top 50 of the NET. Big 12, Big East and B1G are going to hoard all the bids.
 


Updated through TAMU-CC game.

MUST WIN HOME GAMES (go 5-0; currently 1-0)
Dec. 14: TAMU-CORPUS CHRISTI (W)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY
Dec. 29: ALCORN
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

BUCK UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4; these are likely "signature" wins)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
 

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