Time Is Running Out: 19 regular-season wins will shag Gophers a NCAA bid

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Updated through Green Bay game.

MUST WIN HOME GAMES (go 5-0; currently 2-0)
Dec. 14: TAMU-CORPUS CHRISTI (W)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY (W)
Dec. 29: ALCORN
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

BUCK UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
 
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Sagarin has the SOS for the BIG as follows:
MSU 9
tOSU 10
WI 21
MI 24
RUT 44
PSU 62
ILL 76
PUR 96
MN 160
IA 254
NWA 324
 

Plato said:
Sagarin has the SOS for the BIG as follows:
MSU 9
tOSU 10
WI 21
MI 24
RUT 44
PSU 62
ILL 76
PUR 96
MN 160
IA 254
NWA 324
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Think you might be missing a couple teams there. We certainly haven't played a brutal schedule but the team is beating the teams it is supposed to and also beating some of the teams it isn't supposed to (Miss St, Michigan).....been a fun start to a season that on paper looked like it was going to be really rough.

Team is most likely still a longshot to make the NCAA tournament but it will be interesting to see how they hold up against the conference. Early returns are showing this group is going to give teams some problems.

The fact that we can even dream about making the tournament this year is shocking with the injuries and roster makeup.
 

Gophers7633 said:
I gotta think 19-11(9-11) gets us a bid, even if we lose the first game of the B1G tournament. 19-12 will put us, most likely, in the 50's of the NET.

Just looking at the other power conferences, the Pac 12 and ACC are at the most going to get 4 bids max. They've been so awful OOC, collectively. Those conferences NET Rankings are at the point where there isn't many opportunities to get good wins. Going 13-7 in the ACC won't mean much, and will mean less than the Gophers going 9-11 in the B1G IMO. Pretty much the same for the P12. Especially if UCLA, USC and Arizona only lose to each other. Might be a 3 bid league is that's the case. Both only have 4 teams in the top 50 of the NET. Big 12, Big East and B1G are going to hoard all the bids.
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I think Mid Majors will have more comparable at large resumes though. We aren’t just competing against the ACC for bids.

i haven’t studied the bubble but the way to get in with a sub .500 conference record is to have a bunch of Quad 1 wins and few bad losses.

if we are 9-11 we either have some bad losses or less than 5 quad 1 wins at the end.
 

Updated through Illinois game. Gophers now 10-2, 1-2 in Big Ten.

With the Alcorn State game being canceled, the number of wins needed to be locked & loaded for an at-large bid before heading to Indy for the Big Ten Tournament becomes 19.

MUST WIN AT HOME (go 4-0; currently 2-0)
Dec. 14: TAMU-CORPUS CHRISTI (W)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY (W)
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE

MAN UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 2-1)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland

50/50 BALLS (go 4-4)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 16: IOWA
Jan. 30: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
Feb. 27: INDIANA
March 6: @ Northwestern

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 1-4; currently 0-1)
Jan. 2: ILLINOIS (L)
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
 
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Some guy said:
I still have no idea. I hope they get 18
I still am not sure this is a very good team. But at the same time, they’ve won some games. 18 wins would be a fantastic season.
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Gophers have been way better than I thought they'd be, but I still wouldn't change the over-under of 4 Big Ten wins I had prior to the season. It's going to be tough to get 5+ conference wins. Even Nebraska has significantly more talent than the Gophers, so that's where you hope coaching kicks in.
 



Is there an estimate of what it would take to make the NIT? I would consider an NIT berth a major success this year.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Gophers have been way better than I thought they'd be, but I still wouldn't change the over-under of 4 Big Ten wins I had prior to the season. It's going to be tough to get 5+ conference wins. Even Nebraska has significantly more talent than the Gophers, so that's where you hope coaching kicks in.
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Talentwise also will be a challenge for the Gophers to beat Penn St, just from the limited time I have watched them. Certainly can beat them, but no cakewalk. No layups from here on out.
 

Ope3 said:
Talentwise also will be a challenge for the Gophers to beat Penn St, just from the limited time I have watched them. Certainly can beat them, but no cakewalk. No layups from here on out.
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You going to the Tommie game tonight by any chance?
 




SelectionSunday said:
Gophers have been way better than I thought they'd be, but I still wouldn't change the over-under of 4 Big Ten wins I had prior to the season. It's going to be tough to get 5+ conference wins. Even Nebraska has significantly more talent than the Gophers, so that's where you hope coaching kicks in.
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I'm more confident than I was earlier in the season. Most teams have more talent, but they also have looked disorganized. I think good defense and protecting the ball gives them a shot at a lot more wins than we thought before. Big question is can they maintain focus after getting crushed a few times. That can be demoralizing.
 

Holy Man said:
I'm more confident than I was earlier in the season. Most teams have more talent, but they also have looked disorganized. I think good defense and protecting the ball gives them a shot at a lot more wins than we thought before. Big question is can they maintain focus after getting crushed a few times. That can be demoralizing.
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Agree on that. The other big question is staying healthy, knock on wood. Even a sprained ankle or two could have a big impact.
 

Holy Man said:
I'm more confident than I was earlier in the season. Most teams have more talent, but they also have looked disorganized. I think good defense and protecting the ball gives them a shot at a lot more wins than we thought before. Big question is can they maintain focus after getting crushed a few times. That can be demoralizing.
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I’m more confident than I was earlier in the season. But I’ve gone from thinking the gophers have a 0-1% chance in a given game to a 20% chance against good teams and a 50% chance against Nebraska, Penn state, Maryland,
 

With the loss at Indiana, the Gophers are now 0-1 in the 50/50 games Hodger has us needing to go 4-4 in.

Disappointing game today.

Go Gophers!!
 
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BleedGopher said:
With the loss at Indiana, the Gophers are now 0-1 in the 50/50 games Hodger has us neeting to go 4-4 in.

Disappointing game today.

Go Gophers!!
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Is the bloom off the rose...
Has water reached its level...
Can they win a game before Nebraska...

Unless Coach can work magic the answer are:
Yes
Yes
No
 

PhiloVance said:
Is the bloom off the rose...
Has water reached its level...
Can they win a game before Nebraska...

Unless Coach can work magic the answer are:
Yes
Yes
No
Click to expand...
They can win a game before Nebraska but this team straight up isn’t good. Not enough depth of talent.

I didn’t think the gopher roster LAST year was good enough to be a top 30 team once Liam was hurt. That was with Curry playing a minimal role. Now curry is a key player?
Love curry but if he is a critical player you don’t have a very good big ten team. I’ll be surprised with anything more than 5 conference wins.
 

I haven't given up hope. Tired of everyone throwing in the towel after one bad game and a game against Indiana ON THE ROAD that we were in the whole time till the end. We still have a shot if we can beat the teams that we can be competetive against, including when we we get Indiana at home next time. Sure there might be a few ugly ones but we can beat at least half the B1G teams! Schedule wasn't favorable early on here and I think skewed the optics on this team. After @MSU three VERY winnable games. I say we are 4-4 after those. LET'S GO GOPHERS!!
 

Honestly yesterday the game plan was good, Phinosee and Johnson shot it better then they normally do, but if you take TJD away and dare those guys to shoot more often than not' you'll be successful. However, what's becoming a concern is the three point defense, it was great in non con, but it's been terrible in league play. Ultimately getting doubled up on three point percentages isn't recipe for success when you're also undersized. Sparty will be tough, but if we are going to stay in the hunt, got to get the home win vs Iowa and the road win at Penn State before heading to Purdue. Second half of the schedule has some nice opportunities, if we can get to 4-6 at the turn, there's a chance, anything less than that, it's curtains as far as the Dance goes
 

With the Alcorn game canceled, the number of wins needed to be locked & loaded for an at-large bid before heading to Indy for the Big Ten Tournament becomes 19.

I did a 1-time reshuffling of the groups to include all games played to this point. The main change I made was moving the Badgers to the Heavyweight group (read: presumed top 5 in Big Ten).

Updated through Indiana game. Gophers currently 10-3, 1-3 in Big Ten.

MUST WIN AT HOME (go 8-0; currently 5-0)
Nov. 9: KANSAS CITY (WON)
Nov. 19: PURDUE FORT WAYNE (WON)
Nov. 24: JACKSONVILLE (WON)
Dec. 14: TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (WON)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY (WON)
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN

MAN UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 3-2; currently 1-0)
Nov. 30: @ Pitt (WON)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland
March 6: @ Northwestern

50/50 BALLS (go 6-2; currently 4-1)
Nov. 12: vs. Western Kentucky (WON)
Nov. 14: vs. Princeton (WON)
Dec. 5: @ Mississippi State (WON)
Dec. 11: @ Michigan (WON)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana (LOST)
Jan. 16: IOWA
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 27: INDIANA

SLAY THE HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 2-6; currently 0-2)
Dec. 8: MICHIGAN STATE (LOST)
Jan. 4: ILLINOIS (LOST)
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Jan. 30 @ Wisconsin
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
 
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Guessing 19-10, 10-10 in League Play and we're in. Get the home wins vs Rutgers and PSU, Home wins against Iowa, NW, Wisconsin and Indiana, road wins at Nebraska and Penn State, with the road win at Michigan gets you to nine. Have @ Maryland, @ Wisconsin, @ Iowa, @NW, @ Sparty, @ OSU, home games with OSU and Purdue to pick up the 10th win. Obviously the more we win in the latter group the more margin for error there is in the top group
 

Updated through Michigan State game. Gophers currently 10-4, 1-4 in Big Ten.

With the Alcorn game canceled, the number of wins needed to be locked & loaded for an at-large bid before heading to Indy for the Big Ten Tournament becomes 19.

I did a 1-time reshuffling of the groups to include all games. The main change I made was moving the Badgers to the Heavyweight group (read: presumed top 5 in Big Ten).

MUST WIN AT HOME (go 8-0; currently 5-0)
Nov. 9: KANSAS CITY (WON)
Nov. 19: PURDUE FORT WAYNE (WON)
Nov. 24: JACKSONVILLE (WON)
Dec. 14: TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (WON)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY (WON)
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN

MAN UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 3-2; currently 1-0)
Nov. 30: @ Pitt (WON)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland
March 6: @ Northwestern

50/50 BALLS (go 6-2; currently 4-1)
Nov. 12: vs. Western Kentucky (WON)
Nov. 14: vs. Princeton (WON)
Dec. 5: @ Mississippi State (WON)
Dec. 11: @ Michigan (WON)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana (LOST)
Jan. 16: IOWA
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 27: INDIANA

SLAY HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 2-6; currently 0-3)
Dec. 8: MICHIGAN STATE (LOST)
Jan. 4: ILLINOIS (LOST)
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State (LOST)
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Jan. 30 @ Wisconsin
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
 
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JimmyJamesMD said:
can i just say how annoyed i am with with the early schedule.
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There is a positive side to that, though.

Only 5 games in and the Gophers already are done with Illinois & Michigan State, and only have to play Purdue (along with Illinois their other nightmare matchup) once, and that's at home. Now's the time they have to start making hay, starting Sunday with Iowa. Hawkeyes are soft, take the fight to 'em, they'll wilt.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Updated through Michigan State game. Gophers currently 10-4, 1-4 in Big Ten.

With the Alcorn game canceled, the number of wins needed to be locked & loaded for an at-large bid before heading to Indy for the Big Ten Tournament becomes 19.

I did a 1-time reshuffling of the groups to include all games. The main change I made was moving the Badgers to the Heavyweight group (read: presumed top 5 in Big Ten).

MUST WIN AT HOME (go 8-0; currently 5-0)
Nov. 9: KANSAS CITY (WON)
Nov. 19: PURDUE FORT WAYNE (WON)
Nov. 24: JACKSONVILLE (WON)
Dec. 14: TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (WON)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY (WON)
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN

MAN UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 3-2; currently 1-0)
Nov. 30: @ Pitt (WON)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland
March 6: @ Northwestern

50/50 BALLS (go 6-2; currently 4-1)
Nov. 12: vs. Western Kentucky (WON)
Nov. 14: vs. Princeton (WON)
Dec. 5: @ Mississippi State (WON)
Dec. 11: @ Michigan (WON)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana (LOST)
Jan. 16: IOWA
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 27: INDIANA

SLAY HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 2-6; currently 0-3)
Dec. 8: MICHIGAN STATE (LOST)
Jan. 4: ILLINOIS (LOST)
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State (LOST)
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Jan. 30 @ Wisconsin
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
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A bid is definitely still in play. Didn't think I'd be saying that in mid-january. That 50/50 group and heavyweights are still the big question mark. I don't see 4 more wins there, but i've been proven wrong all year.
 

SelectionSunday said:
There is a positive side to that, though.

Only 5 games in and the Gophers already are done with Illinois & Michigan State, and only have to play Purdue (along with Illinois their other nightmare matchup) once, and that's at home. Now's the time they have to start making hay, starting Sunday with Iowa. Hawkeyes are soft, take the fight to 'em, they'll wilt.
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Yeah, start of the Big Ten schedule has been brutal but it definitely gets easier going forward. Not that it is ever easy in the Big Ten.

The Curry injury is a big question mark right now. Given how thin we are up front, if he has to miss any significant amount of time it is going to be very difficult to compete against a lot of teams. He has been huge for the team this season.
 

SelectionSunday said:
There is a positive side to that, though.

Only 5 games in and the Gophers already are done with Illinois & Michigan State, and only have to play Purdue (along with Illinois their other nightmare matchup) once, and that's at home. Now's the time they have to start making hay, starting Sunday with Iowa. Hawkeyes are soft, take the fight to 'em, they'll wilt.
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Also I think our guys have to have a ton of confidence as we’ve played well/been competitive through this tough chunk!
 

Updated through Iowa game. Gophers currently 10-5, 1-5 in Big Ten.

With the Alcorn game canceled, the number of wins needed to be locked & loaded for an at-large bid before heading to Indy for the Big Ten Tournament becomes 19.

MUST WIN AT HOME (go 8-0; currently 5-0)
Nov. 9: KANSAS CITY (WON)
Nov. 19: PURDUE FORT WAYNE (WON)
Nov. 24: JACKSONVILLE (WON)
Dec. 14: TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (WON)
Dec. 22: GREEN BAY (WON)
Jan. 22: RUTGERS
Feb. 12: PENN STATE
Feb. 19: NORTHWESTERN

MAN UP, GET THESE ROAD WINS (go 3-2; currently 1-0)
Nov. 30: @ Pitt (WON)
Jan. 19: @ Penn State
Feb. 9: @ Nebraska
March 2: @ Maryland
March 6: @ Northwestern

50/50 BALLS (go 6-2; currently 4-2)
Nov. 12: vs. Western Kentucky (WON)
Nov. 14: vs. Princeton (WON)
Dec. 5: @ Mississippi State (WON)
Dec. 11: @ Michigan (WON)
Jan. 9: @ Indiana (LOST)
Jan. 16: IOWA (LOST)
Feb. 6: @ Iowa
Feb. 27: INDIANA

SLAY HEAVYWEIGHTS (go 2-6; currently 0-3)
Dec. 8: MICHIGAN STATE (LOST)
Jan. 4: ILLINOIS (LOST)
Jan. 12: @ Michigan State (LOST)
Jan. 27: OHIO STATE
Jan. 30 @ Wisconsin
Feb. 2: PURDUE
Feb. 15: @ Ohio State
Feb. 23: WISCONSIN
 

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