Did some stats analysis, according to
on3's 2025 numbers[take it with a grain of salt] and the FPI from ESPN. You see some weird correlations. Pearson correlation is −0.566 [moderate relationship that as you spend more in NIL you do observe a better FPI, but far from deterministic]. You could interpret this as
only about 31% of performance differences are explained by NIL spending. There is obviously something more than just throwing money at the problem to get college kids to play football [e.g. Nebraska, UCLA, Wisconsin].