You dont have to agree with me but here is my analysis of Shortell.
1) decisive with the ball -that's good
2) immobile
3) not good at reading coverage, especially once defenses have adjusted to a new QB and the coverages are designed to stop his arm
4) inaccurate with the football
He might be okay. But if he is only okay the gophers are gonna peak at a little over .500 the next four years.
If kill goes 3-9, 5-7, 6-6, 7-5 and then is going to have to rebuild after losing a four year starting QB I don't think he'll maintain employment. And I simply don't think Shortell is good enough to lead a team to more than mediocrity.
I'm not trying to argue with you about the next 3-4 years. I'd be delighted if there were another option, one perhaps more suited to the offense Kill and Co. want to implement, that was better than Shortell down the road, maybe even next year. Wouldn't surprise me one bit, wouldn't bother me one bit.
I'm just saying right here, right now, there's not a doubt in my mind that Shortell is well beyond Gray and it's not really that close. I've watched each game already 2-3 times each (God, that sounds pathetic) and when you watch it on replay, with the benefit of the rewind button, Gray looks worse every time and Shortell continues to look better.
This is what I see from Shortell:
Immobile; maybe so, but he's only averaging a
half yard less per attempt than Gray. He takes WAY fewer sacks than Gray because he actually stays in the pocket and throws the ball. Against NDSU in particular, Gray ran himself into a half dozen sacks needlessly due to lack of patience. The pocket was there, he either failed to pull the trigger and/or bailed for no apparent reason.
Some plays that have stuck out with me (and a close buddy of mine who also played 4 years of college ball):
> When they brought him in right off the bench against NDSU for a 3rd and 10 (12?) play, he dropped in a perfect pass, between the corner and safety, to Jones, arguably the smallest target on the field.
> Down in the red zone against NDSU, the bubble screen to Moulton; NDSU DB jumps the route, Shortell patiently waits for him to overrun the receiver, and then delivers a strike. Most young QB's would have just thrown the ball in rhythm and on time like it works in practice, and could have been a pick six. Looks like a 4-yd completion in the books; on tape it was an impressive play.
> Even with short, seemingly easy completions (or opportunities); Shortell makes a decision and fires; Gray sees a guy (or doesn't even see him) and either waits too long to make the decision to throw or just flat out decides he's better off running anyway.
> One of Shortell's easiest completions of the year was one of the more impressive ones to me in that USC game; the TD to Brandon Green. Sure, the obvious thing was that Green was the 2nd or 3rd option but even after that, 2-3 things jumped out to me. When he settled on Green, he (1) made the decision and fired it immediately, allowing Green the chance to catch AND make a play, (2) he FIRED the ball, even for a short pass, getting the ball there quicker and allowing Green to make a move, and (3) he actually hit Green right in the middle of the chest, again, allowing him to actually do something with the ball after making the catch.
All dumb, little things that are easily taken for granted, but ones that stick out more when they are all things Gray has failed to do repeatedly.
> He actually hits the TE in stride on the seam route, something Gray routinely misses
> He seems to make better decisions on the zone read and the running game has been more efffective with him under center. I have a hard time saying that because Gray is the leading rusher, by far, that the "run game" has flourished with him under center. Gray's running numbers may have flourished, largely on broken plays, but the overall run game has been a dumpster fire with Gray at the helm.
Like I said, I have no clue how good Shortell can be THIS year, much less a few years down the road. I'm just saying the decision between Gray and Shortell right now is just not close. One is a QB, and one is a tremendous athlete who's just not really sure what he's doing out there.