PAC-ACC-BIG alliance announcement expected today

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fw_horn_32 said:
I really don’t know what their is to see here with today’s alliance announcement. Right now, it’s just a “gentlemen’s agreement” between 3 conferences and 40+ universities. Nothing in writing. So many things can and will change. The more interesting thing to me is the PAC 12 is supposed to have some big news Friday. I’m curious if they’re going to announce additional schools joining the conference.
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Bolded: ha! It'll probably be to announce something to do with TV, and it will be underwhelming.
 

PMWinSTP said:
We'll see...
theathletic.com

Pac-12 will announce plans on expansion by end of week

“I’ll commit that we’re going to announce our decision about whether or not to expand before the end of the week,” commissioner George Kliavkoff said.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
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However, perhaps tipping off the decision, he also said with the newly formed alliance, which is expected to include multiple nonconference games per team each season between the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12, “We’re able to achieve a lot of what we wanted to achieve when we were thinking about expansion by forming this alliance."
 


Based on that, and like he said: they basically get the extra, high-value games, and get into more Central and Eastern timezone TV sets without having to expand.

Would assume that means they're out on taking some Big XII teams, for now.

Probably the same for Big Ten and ACC.


The details will come out when the PAC and Big Ten negotiate their next TV contracts, knowing they'll be able to offer more high-value games.


I still say that the Big XII can add Cincy and Houston, maybe a different team, or maybe two more, and still be head and shoulders above the Mountain West and American Athletic. Maybe not quite a P conf, but still closer to that than those two. My opinion
 

PMWinSTP said:
We'll see...
theathletic.com

Pac-12 will announce plans on expansion by end of week

“I’ll commit that we’re going to announce our decision about whether or not to expand before the end of the week,” commissioner George Kliavkoff said.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
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I'm real curious on this. Adding members needs to make sense revenue-wise. No sense in diluting the revenue pool of existing schools. If this list is correct, after Texas and Oklahoma, the next largest revenue schools in the Big 12 are TCU #26, Baylor #29, Iowa State #34 then TX Tech at #41. All other 50+. Could TCU and Baylor be the next Pac12 targets?
 

MplsGopher said:
Not until 2025, at the earliest.

They're going to try to block every last red cent they can from of Texas, Oklahoma, the SEC, and ESPN, for as long as they can.
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That would be classic cutting off your nose to spite your face by the remaining Big 12 schools. Going that route would present it's own problems.

The money from a Texas/OU buyout isn't nearly as great as it sounds considering they will split it. If Texas/OU leave immediately the buyout number I've seen is about $150M combined. Split nine ways (I think the conference gets a share, but I could be wrong) that's a little less than $17M per school. A one-time payment of $17M isn't going to do much to cover the long term losses that will be felt by losing Texas/OU. And the payout will be less than that if Texas/OU actually wait until 2025. (I don't think they will.)

Recruiting is going to take a hit for all Big 12 schools for as long as the future is uncertain.

Right now the Big 12 is a strip mall in an isolated area that just lost it's Sears and JCPenney.
 

FormerFatOL said:
I'm real curious on this. Adding members needs to make sense revenue-wise. No sense in diluting the revenue pool of existing schools. If this list is correct, after Texas and Oklahoma, the next largest revenue schools in the Big 12 are TCU #26, Baylor #29, Iowa State #34 then TX Tech at #41. All other 50+. Could TCU and Baylor be the next Pac12 targets?
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I just don’t see scrubby little baylor or the lizards being a fit in the Pac12, but I guess nothing makes sense anymore.
 



bizzle22 said:
That would be classic cutting off your nose to spite your face by the remaining Big 12 schools. Going that route would present it's own problems.

The money from a Texas/OU buyout isn't nearly as great as it sounds considering they will split it. If Texas/OU leave immediately the buyout number I've seen is about $150M combined. Split nine ways (I think the conference gets a share, but I could be wrong) that's a little less than $17M per school. A one-time payment of $17M isn't going to do much to cover the long term losses that will be felt by losing Texas/OU. And the payout will be less than that if Texas/OU actually wait until 2025. (I don't think they will.)

Recruiting is going to take a hit for all Big 12 schools for as long as the future is uncertain.

Right now the Big 12 is a strip mall in an isolated area that just lost it's Sears and JCPenney.
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Nothing you say here is "wrong".

My responses to your main points are:
- OK, but how does that motivate them to allow UT/OU to leave sooner, then? If the money isn't the factor (doesn't seem to be significant, either way) then why not spite the two and ESPN, for as long as they can? Also forced ESPN to pay out the full amount of what they owe the Big XII for their TV contract, for the full term length. That is not insignificant.
- it's tough for me to believe that many recruits are willing to come to Iowa State knowing that Texas and OU are gone, but not willing to come there with the Big XII itself having a doubtful future -- which would mean all the teams likely found homes in other P conferences .... they aren't going to go en masse to the American Athletic. They'll have a better time of it just rebuilding the Big XII, in that case.
- maybe, but what are the realistic alternatives? Just close shop and everyone goes independent? No.
 


PeoplesFront said:
I just don’t see scrubby little baylor or the lizards being a fit in the Pac12, but I guess nothing makes sense anymore.
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Zero chance any of the three have any interest in the Baptist school. They're more likely to go the BYU independence route in football, than anything.
 

MplsGopher said:
Anything you're hearing specifically?
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Possible that ESPN and FOX team up buy UT and OU out of the Big 12, and ESPN handing over certain TV grant of rights for certain schools/conferences exclusively to FOX. It would be a financial win in the long term for both ESPN and FOX. Strictly rumor, but it would make some sense.
 



fw_horn_32 said:
Possible that ESPN and FOX team up buy UT and OU out of the Big 12, and ESPN handing over certain TV grant of rights for certain schools/conferences exclusively to FOX. It would be a financial win in the long term for both ESPN and FOX. Strictly rumor, but it would make some sense.
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FOX pays so that ESPN can get full control of UT/OU, sooner? Hmm ...

Basically it would have to be that ESPN agrees not to bid against FOX for the PAC and Big Ten next TV deals. Wild guess.

Not sure if that's a good thing, from our point of view, unless FOX willing to match ESPN's investment in the SEC.
 

MplsGopher said:
FOX pays so that ESPN can get full control of UT/OU, sooner? Hmm ...

Basically it would have to be that ESPN agrees not to bid against FOX for the PAC and Big Ten next TV deals. Wild guess.

Not sure if that's a good thing, from our point of view, unless FOX willing to match ESPN's investment in the SEC.
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Now you're talking about illegal collusion.
 



I'd be curious what they plan to do with TV rights to games. Are we going to have some games not on BTN in the future?. Lots here that is unknown yet and no signed documents. Leaves a lot of questions on how exactly this does anything to keep these conferences in the mix for the playoffs.
 

MplsGopher said:
Nothing you say here is "wrong".

My responses to your main points are:
- OK, but how does that motivate them to allow UT/OU to leave sooner, then? If the money isn't the factor (doesn't seem to be significant, either way) then why not spite the two and ESPN, for as long as they can? Also forced ESPN to pay out the full amount of what they owe the Big XII for their TV contract, for the full term length. That is not insignificant.
- it's tough for me to believe that many recruits are willing to come to Iowa State knowing that Texas and OU are gone, but not willing to come there with the Big XII itself having a doubtful future -- which would mean all the teams likely found homes in other P conferences .... they aren't going to go en masse to the American Athletic. They'll have a better time of it just rebuilding the Big XII, in that case.
- maybe, but what are the realistic alternatives? Just close shop and everyone goes independent? No.
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- They don't have a choice over whether or not to "allow" Texas and OU to leave early. All Texas/OU have to do is pay the buyout and they are good to join the SEC as soon as the SEC will take them.
- The recruiting is secondary to the money, but there was an article in The Athletic that summed it up nicely. Basically, schools like Iowa State are being shown that even though they are a better football program than Texas right now they will still never be viewed as the same in terms of brand name, and will not be worth as much financially no matter what they do. While many of us always thought this to be the case, it's now out in the open and recruits/players/coaches are aware of this.
- The best option for the Big 12 is to combine with the Mountain West and/or AAC. Whether that is through poaching/merger/alliance I don't know. If they could grab Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and Memphis then it still isn't a conference worthy of Power 5 money in a TV deal. (Would be a pretty good basketball conference though.) But if they can add those schools with current Big 12 members and sign a long-term grant of rights deal like the ACC has then they could at least gain some stability in their ranks. And the TV money would still probably be ok, though much less than what they are getting now. But that is going to be the case anyways without OU/Texas. Maybe stay at 8 and come up with some sort of football scheduling agreement with the AAC/Mountain West? They will need the quality non-conf games if they only have eight schools.
- The Big 12 is kind of screwed no matter what, but they are better off deciding sooner rather than later. If they wait until 2025 then they will be forced to do something, and things don't always turn out well in those situations.
 

MplsGopher said:
However, perhaps tipping off the decision, he also said with the newly formed alliance, which is expected to include multiple nonconference games per team each season between the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12, “We’re able to achieve a lot of what we wanted to achieve when we were thinking about expansion by forming this alliance."
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That was the point I was making by posting...
 

FormerFatOL said:
I'm real curious on this. Adding members needs to make sense revenue-wise. No sense in diluting the revenue pool of existing schools. If this list is correct, after Texas and Oklahoma, the next largest revenue schools in the Big 12 are TCU #26, Baylor #29, Iowa State #34 then TX Tech at #41. All other 50+. Could TCU and Baylor be the next Pac12 targets?
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I don't think there will be expansion any time soon for these conferences now that the alliance has been announced. I think they will solidify it more formally in the coming months to set themselves up for the upcoming TV contract expirations for B1G and Pac 12. I agree that the new contracts will have more of a focus on the streaming services along with broadcast/cable TV companies. I could see Google getting into the mix through YouTube TV. ESPN's streaming is not that good.
 

PMWinSTP said:
That was the point I was making by posting...
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It read to me that you were agreeing with the final sentence of the post you were quoting "I’m curious if they’re going to announce additional schools joining the conference."

I was mistaken
 

The PAC XII will announce that they aren’t expanding at this time. That’s all.

They may also say (again) that they believe it is important that the Big XII flourish.

This declaration will pave the way for the BigXII to add 4-6 teams from the American, and will mean TX and OK will each owe the Big XII a truckload of cash.
 

Goldmember said:
The PAC XII will announce that they aren’t expanding at this time. That’s all.

They may also say (again) that they believe it is important that the Big XII flourish.

This declaration will pave the way for the BigXII to add 4-6 teams from the American, and will mean TX and OK will each owe the Big XII a truckload of cash.
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I disagree. I think UT/OU will make good on their promise to stay in the conf until 2025. Then they won't owe a dime, and both they and the SEC (and ESPN) will have plenty of time to prepare for all the transitions. How the SEC will be reformatted, upgrades to TV contract, how the Longhorn Network will be folded into SEC TV channel, etc.

If it does go earlier, then TV partners will be footing the bill. Schools have basically said they won't do that, with their 2025 declaration.
 

NextYear_76 said:
Seems to me we are heading to sixteen team conferences with 8 team divisions.

Big-ten could go to sixteen games with Kansas and Iowa State
ACC could add West Virginia and Notre Dame as an associate
Pac-12 has twelve teams and could add Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State and BYU or some other combo

Each conference would be sixteen teams and play 8 conference game including all the teams in the division and one crossover and then one game with an ACC team and one game with a Pac-12 team. Might consider allowing a game against a SEC team to be added instead of a ACC or Pac-12 team. Could be done next year based of the Gopher upcoming schedules 2022-2029. We are ready to go. Tougher schedule but more fun.

2022 Colorado (Pac-12)
2023 BYU
2024 North Carolina (ACC)
2025 North Carolina (ACC)
2026 Mississippi State (SEC)
2027 Mississippi State (SEC)
2028 California (Pac-12)
2029 California (Pac-12)
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Why? There is literally nothing I that would require a conference go to 16 team leagues. Why would a league dilute itself for an arbitrary 16
 

Goldmember said:
The PAC XII will announce that they aren’t expanding at this time. That’s all.

They may also say (again) that they believe it is important that the Big XII flourish.

This declaration will pave the way for the BigXII to add 4-6 teams from the American, and will mean TX and OK will each owe the Big XII a truckload of cash.
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Would make sense if Big XII decides to go down fighting:


Not the worst choice IMO....
 

Some guy said:
Why? There is literally nothing I that would require a conference go to 16 team leagues. Why would a league dilute itself for an arbitrary 16
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I agree that it provides nothing of real value. I just was noting that we seem to heading that way. Does allow easier cross conference scheduling.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Would make sense if Big XII decides to go down fighting:


Not the worst choice IMO....
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I don't think they need to add more than two, but if they want to gut the American for trying to carry out ESPN's plan to kill the Big XII, I could see that.

In addition to Cincy and Houston, grab UCF/USF, Memphis and perhaps 1-3 more.
 

Some guy said:
Why? There is literally nothing I that would require a conference go to 16 team leagues. Why would a league dilute itself for an arbitrary 16
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Mostly agree, if pure TV money maximization is the target.

If Big Ten could somehow add USC and Notre Dame (they can't), that would be a worthwhile expansion to 16, any way you slice it.
 

bizzle22 said:
- They don't have a choice over whether or not to "allow" Texas and OU to leave early. All Texas/OU have to do is pay the buyout and they are good to join the SEC as soon as the SEC will take them.
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"Allow" bad word choice by me, better would be "make it easier for them to leave", ie what motivation does the Big XII have to do that? None.

UT/OU won't pay anything to leave early. Hence why they've declared they won't until 2025. If they do leave earlier, it's because ESPN paid for it.

bizzle22 said:
- The recruiting is secondary to the money, but there was an article in The Athletic that summed it up nicely. Basically, schools like Iowa State are being shown that even though they are a better football program than Texas right now they will still never be viewed as the same in terms of brand name, and will not be worth as much financially no matter what they do. While many of us always thought this to be the case, it's now out in the open and recruits/players/coaches are aware of this.
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I doubt there are recruits that are shocked by this. Or for K-State, or Oklahoma State for that matter.

bizzle22 said:
- The best option for the Big 12 is to combine with the Mountain West and/or AAC. Whether that is through poaching/merger/alliance I don't know. If they could grab Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and Memphis then it still isn't a conference worthy of Power 5 money in a TV deal. (Would be a pretty good basketball conference though.) But if they can add those schools with current Big 12 members and sign a long-term grant of rights deal like the ACC has then they could at least gain some stability in their ranks. And the TV money would still probably be ok, though much less than what they are getting now. But that is going to be the case anyways without OU/Texas. Maybe stay at 8 and come up with some sort of football scheduling agreement with the AAC/Mountain West? They will need the quality non-conf games if they only have eight schools.
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All good points, and I agree with them.

I think they'll look to grab some number of schools from the AAC and live with the TV money that's deemed to be worth, as best they can.

bizzle22 said:
- The Big 12 is kind of screwed no matter what, but they are better off deciding sooner rather than later. If they wait until 2025 then they will be forced to do something, and things don't always turn out well in those situations.
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I don't think they have to wait until 2025 to expand. They should revoke OU and UT's votes on that matter.
 

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