Other Bowl Games Thread

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GophersInIowa said:
What a dumb decision by ND to blitz and leave him 1 on 1. It was 3rd and 11.
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Agreed 100%. Smith you double. Play coverage and tackle. An incompletion is huge. A sack actually ain’t that horribly negative a play for OSU in that setting and is better than an incompletion
 

Some guy said:
Didn’t think you could get the 4th and goal and would cover 2 two point conversions


I disagree with the choice but that’s why


If you hit it it’s 31-25 right now
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And you still need the ball back which isn’t going to happen. If you go for it and convert, it could be tied. Plus, with the penchant OSU had for penalties in the secondary, you have to try to get a TD.

It was one of the dumbest, most inexcusable decisions I’ve seen in a long time.
 





Never got the ball back. That’s why you have to go for it. You can use all the math you want to say how this and that means they have a chance to win but all that’s dependent on having enough chances. The fact is they were already on the 9 yard line there. That drive was already down to the end zone so you have to try to score when you’re down there.
 

With all the stupid shit that PJ does on game day it’s interesting to see everybody just hammering the coaches here. Makes me laugh. On that third down play I saw Howard being a stud facing down the pressure and throwing a beautiful ball to a highly talented WR. In those circumstances, that’s not easy to do and I celebrate their talent and balls to be a hero.
 

upnorthkid said:
Personally I hate trying to use the argument of how the game plays out after like nothing would’ve changed. Changes everything starting very simply with field position and then going to game theory
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Yeah but saying that field goal would’ve made it 8 points right now isn’t a huge stretch of retrospect
 

With all the stupid shit that PJ does on game day it’s interesting to see everybody just hammering the coaches here. Makes me laugh. On that third down play I saw Howard being a stud facing down the pressure and throwing a beautiful ball to a highly talented WR. In those circumstances, that’s not easy to do and I celebrate their talent and balls to be a hero.
 






Gopherchase said:
With all the stupid shit that PJ does on game day it’s interesting to see everybody just hammering the coaches here. Makes me laugh. On that third down play I saw Howard being a stud facing down the pressure and throwing a beautiful ball to a highly talented WR. In those circumstances, that’s not easy to do and I celebrate their talent and balls to be a hero.
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None of this has much to do with fleck

You have a problem. Seek help
 



Crazy that any other year besides this one OSU doesn’t make the playoffs and Ryan Day probably gets fired after the Michigan loss.
 


WilliamsArenaGuy said:
Never got the ball back. That’s why you have to go for it. You can use all the math you want to say how this and that means they have a chance to win but all that’s dependent on having enough chances. The fact is they were already on the 9 yard line there. That drive was already down to the end zone so you have to try to score when you’re down there.
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Kicking what should have been an automatic FG eliminates the need for two 2-pt conversions. And they had to convert a 4th and 9. There’s like a 10% chance of all those things happening. And even then you only tie the game with maybe a 50% chance of winning after the fact.

At a minimum I don’t think there’s much of a difference between these two:

- Convert 4th and 9 for a TD, get 2-pt conversion, score another TD and get another 2-pt conversion. Then hope to win in OT.
- Kick short FG and score two more TDs.

If it was 4th and medium, then maybe you go for it.
 

Some guy said:
Yeah but saying that field goal would’ve made it 8 points right now isn’t a huge stretch of retrospect
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i dunno. it's really hard to say. Scoring a TD there and Day plays it wildly different. Miss the TD and OSU gets the ball at the 9 and plays conservative and you get the ball near midfield. Make the FG, maybe roughly the same as what happened? Just changes a lot of decision making. Personally think OSU taking their foot off the gas was the worst decision. I get what you're saying, just saying it's awfully tough to know
 

upnorthkid said:
i dunno. it's really hard to say. Scoring a TD there and Day plays it wildly different. Miss the TD and OSU gets the ball at the 9 and plays conservative and you get the ball near midfield. Make the FG, maybe roughly the same as what happened? Just changes a lot of decision making. Personally think OSU taking their foot off the gas was the worst decision. I get what you're saying, just saying it's awfully tough to know
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I’m just saying kicking the field goal was the wrong choice because it’s still a two touchdown game

But the fact it would’ve still been a two touchdown game is why the next two possessions probably play out similarly

But any time something happens in a game the rest of the game could go differently, of course. Maybe if they go for it they end up losing by 4 scores. Maybe if they go for it they win.
Maybe if they hit the field goal they end up winnings maybe if they hit the field goal they end up losing by 28. Who knows
 

GophersInIowa said:
Kicking what should have been an automatic FG eliminates the need for two 2-pt conversions. And they had to convert a 4th and 9. There’s like a 10% chance of all those things happening. And even then you only tie the game with maybe a 50% chance of winning after the fact.

At a minimum I don’t think there’s much of a difference between these two:

- Convert 4th and 9 for a TD, get 2-pt conversion, score another TD and get another 2-pt conversion. Then hope to win in OT.
- Kick short FG and score two more TDs.

If it was 4th and medium, then maybe you go for it.
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Kicking a FG requires another entire possession to even have a chance. A possession they predictably didn’t get.
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
Kicking a FG requires another entire possession to even have a chance. A possession they predictably didn’t get.
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It comes down to what do you think you have a better chance of achieving:

- Get an entire extra possession
- or convert a 4th and 9, and two 2 point conversions

The chances of converting the 4th down and getting both 2 pt conversions is like 10%. The chances of getting an extra possession is probably higher than that. Or at a minimum, very similar.

It nearly worked too. They should have made that short of a FG and if they get the 3rd and long stop, they get the ball back with over 2 minutes left down by 6.
 

GophersInIowa said:
It comes down to what do you think you have a better chance of achieving:

- Get an entire extra possession
- or convert a 4th and 9, and two 2 point conversions

The chances of converting the 4th down and getting both 2 pt conversions is like 10%. The chances of getting an extra possession is probably higher than that. Or at a minimum, very similar.

It nearly worked too. They should have made that short of a FG and if they get the 3rd and long stop, they get the ball back with over 2 minutes left down by 6.
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They had the worst FG % of any power 4 team this year I’m pretty sure

Another reason not to kick
 

GophersInIowa said:
It comes down to what do you think you have a better chance of achieving:

- Get an entire extra possession
- or convert a 4th and 9, and two 2 point conversions

The chances of converting the 4th down and getting both 2 pt conversions is like 10%. The chances of getting an extra possession is probably higher than that. Or at a minimum, very similar.

It nearly worked too. They should have made that short of a FG and if they get the 3rd and long stop, they get the ball back with over 2 minutes left down by 6.
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the problem with this logic is its not mutually exclusive as you're portraying it.

If you don't get it, OSU is at the 9 and you still can get 2 TDs and 2 2 pts. If you score and don't get the 2, you're down 10 instead of 13. So in all scenarios, you're at worst down 2 scores still versus you gave yourself the only chance to cut it to one with the catch if you stop them without a 1st down, they're punting out of their end zone.

To me, they were passing the ball well and had drawn multiple flags recently and OSUs defense was gassed.

Trying to say what happened downstream is exactly how it would've played out just isn't accurate given OSU probably doesn't just come out and run it 5 straight times if ND makes the FG.

On an aside, the fake punt was also a horribly telegraphed call given the time and circumstance. It was a great throw that probably should've been caught, but is also what happens when you put backups out there to try make your big plays rather than starters. Don't know why you don't just go for it with your offense given the whole OSU team was aware the fake may be coming. This also handed OSU points.
 

upnorthkid said:
the problem with this logic is its not mutually exclusive as you're portraying it.

If you don't get it, OSU is at the 9 and you still can get 2 TDs and 2 2 pts. If you score and don't get the 2, you're down 10 instead of 13. So in all scenarios, you're at worst down 2 scores still versus you gave yourself the only chance to cut it to one with the catch if you stop them without a 1st down, they're punting out of their end zone.

To me, they were passing the ball well and had drawn multiple flags recently and OSUs defense was gassed.

Trying to say what happened downstream is exactly how it would've played out just isn't accurate given OSU probably doesn't just come out and run it 5 straight times if ND makes the FG.

On an aside, the fake punt was also a horribly telegraphed call given the time and circumstance. It was a great throw that probably should've been caught, but is also what happens when you put backups out there to try make your big plays rather than starters. Don't know why you don't just go for it with your offense given the whole OSU team was aware the fake may be coming. This also handed OSU points.
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Kicking a FG there means you likely win with 2 TDs. Going for it and not getting it still gives you a chance if you score 2 TDs but that still only ties it and winning is still 50/50 in OT.

I guess my main point is the chances of winning aren’t great either way. We can go back and forth all day long about which decision gives a better chance of winning but the difference is very minimal. People acted like it was a horrible decision. 4th and 9 is tough to convert.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Kicking a FG there means you likely win with 2 TDs. Going for it and not getting it still gives you a chance if you score 2 TDs but that still only ties it and winning is still 50/50 in OT.

I guess my main point is the chances of winning aren’t great either way. We can go back and forth all day long about which decision gives a better chance of winning but the difference is very minimal. People acted like it was a horrible decision. 4th and 9 is tough to convert.
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That’s true but you have the worst FG % of any team in power 4 football and you attempt a FG (and miss) when the score wouldn’t eliminate a possession anyways.

The same downside with less upside seems like a bad bet.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Kicking a FG there means you likely win with 2 TDs. Going for it and not getting it still gives you a chance if you score 2 TDs but that still only ties it and winning is still 50/50 in OT.

I guess my main point is the chances of winning aren’t great either way. We can go back and forth all day long about which decision gives a better chance of winning but the difference is very minimal. People acted like it was a horrible decision. 4th and 9 is tough to convert.
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fair giving the odds of winning there are exceedingly poor regardless. given you needed 2 TDs, I like the giving yourself 3 times to try score the TD makes more sense to me, knowing if you don't make the FG, you still need 2 more possessions. In the end, didn't work out for them but yeah that play call isn't what decided the game.
 

Back to the never ending discussion of playing to win vs not to lose, playing to win is throwing it deep on 3rd and 11 to virtually end the game. Playing not to lose would have been running into the pile to make ND burn their last timeout before punting and giving them the ball with meaningful time to tie the game.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Back to the never ending discussion of playing to win vs not to lose, playing to win is throwing it deep on 3rd and 11 to virtually end the game. Playing not to lose would have been running into the pile to make ND burn their last timeout before punting and giving them the ball with meaningful time to tie the game.
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Playing to win is notre dame running cover 0 while defending 3rd and 11 and getting torched
Playing not to lose would’ve been sitting back in a soft zone and giving up a 7 yard hitch.


It cuts the other way too




In a game without ties playing to win and playing not to lose are literally the same thing
 

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