Assume a 33% hit rate for recruits. If we had a class of 24 this year, that means 8 are probably starters or key players. I realize this year is more JuCo than most years, but we may take 6-8. Say we took 18 freshmen and 6 JuCos, you may have 2 less key players down the road given the hit %.
That may not seem like a lot but if it is your strategy, it adds up. You also can't redshirt as much because some of your young players are always a backup. Maybe you think losing a bit of this depth can be covered by more JuCos in 2 years, but you're again adding guys that have never been in your system.
I also think that getting a kid as a freshman gives you a better chance of developing an All BIG player.
Finally, I am all for kids getting every chance to achieve. I'm glad JuCos exist and I'm glad that kids can get back into major college programs. Most of them are great kids and just needed a different environment to succeed or had a tough situation in life.
All of that said, we are grouping ourselves with Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, and Tennessee. We like to talk ourselves up as a world class institution (including for athletes) and we are not exactly bringing in a bunch of top tier students. I don't see Northwestern, Purdue, Vanderbilt, ND, Wisky, Stanford bringing in a bunch of JuCos. Can't have our cake and eat it, too. Ok, I guess Purdue does take a lot of JuCos.