I think recruiting definitely matters and I even think rivals does a better job than most at predicting success. However, some coaches do a nice job of finding talented players in other places. WI has been doing it for years (they don't have bad recruiting, but you wouldn't look at their recruiting and think they'd go to the Rose Bowl 3 straight years), NWestern has been doing it, etc.
I think Kill has had some success in his short time in MN at finding decent players who weren't very well recruited. If you think PLsek and Wells are just "an average Big 10 player at best", well then they should be ranked much higher than a 2 star. The average Big 10 recruit is not 2 stars.
Time will tell with these guys, but it's you'll never understand recruiting if you just analyze the commit lists on NSD. It's a matter of fit, attrition, balancing classes, and doing slightly better than rivals would suggest. There is a really fine difference between a "bad" recruiting class (Purdue 15 recruits at 2.8 stars) and a good recruiting class (Penn State 17 recruits at 3.0 stars). If 1 player doesn't get in, a player overperforms or walkon establishes himself....those classes could easily switch.
