Skip if you can't stand essays:
I had thought we passed more in 2019, but I checked again and Murray is right. In 2019, our split was 63% run, 37% pass. PJ probably will never pass more than 40% because he wants to shorten/control games. And incomplete passes lengthen games. By comparison, in this just closed out 2023 season our split was 62% run, 38% pass.
What I think so many GHs are trying to articulate is that, if we are win more toss-up games, and occasionally pull off an upset of a ranked opponent, something has to change dramatically in our passing game--not splits necessarily, but effectiveness.
Let's first compare our 2019 to 2023 rushing numbers, keeping in mind that in 2019 (even with PJ's predilection to run the clock down) we attempted 883 plays; in 2023 we attempted only 817 plays. Anyway, in 2019 (with a great 3-back rotation: Smith, Brooks and Ibrahim) we attempted 560 rushes for 2323 yards net, or 4.1 yards per attempt. In 2023, with injuries decimating our RBs and a walk-on RB carrying a heavy load at year's end, we attempted 505 rushes for 2048 yards net, or 4.1 yards per attempt. Very, very similar--even with injuries among our RBs. We have a good OL. Because of more plays being run in 2019, we averaged 178.7 rushing yards per game, but only 157.5 in 2019. A significant difference was that we scored 25 rushing TDs in 2019, but only 13 in 2023.
The difference in what we did with 37% passes in 2019 and 38% passes in 2023 is far more stark. We attempted 323 passes in 2019, 312 passes in 2023. Pretty much the same. There, however, the similarity ends. The Gophers completed 212 (65.6%) passes in 2019, but only 164 (52.5%) in 2023. The Gophers passed for 3293 yards in 2019, but only 1864 yards in 2023. Yards per attempt (not per completions, but per attempts) was an astounding 10.2 yards in 2023; in 2023 it was 5.97 yards. The passing game produced 31 TDs in 2019; it produced 16 in 2023.
So, for me, when I bitch about the passing game, I guess it really isn't about passing more--because PJ just isn't going to pass more than 40% (unless we start throwing to RBs in the flat, which are essentially running plays with a long lateral). It is about having a competent passing attack that is mutually productive with the running game, and one that stresses defenses more.
In 2019, our passing attack (37% of plays) produced far more yardage than our 2019 running game (3293 vs. 2323); more TDs also (31 vs 25). In 2019 and 2023, we had nearly the same number of rushing plays and exactly the same yards per rush (4.1), yet in 2019 we scored 56 TDs while in 2019 we scored only 29 TDs! In 2019, we averaged 253.3 passing yards per game; in 2023 we averaged only 143.4 yards per game.
To me it's pretty simple. So long as PJ's core strategy is to shorten games, the Gophers are going to run the ball at least 60% of the time. Our running game is designed to control games and to win, essentially alone, games against lesser opponents. Our running game can win toss up games almost alone, too, provided we play suffocating defense and have some positive production from our return Its (giving us some field position advantages). But to consistently come out on top in toss up games, and to have a chance in games against ranked opponents (which will be more common starting in 2024). we need a massively more productive passing game. Our rushing game, already producing near its ceiling, simply can't be expected to handle 70% of points production and yardage in a high-scoring game.
We could increase our passing yardage, and probably our passing TDs, by throwing much more. Our passing game is always more productive per play than our running game. In 2019, on 37% of our plays, the passing game produced 58.6% of our yardage and 55.3% of outr TDs. Even our miserable 2023 passing game produced 5.97 yards per attempt compared to our dominant running game's 4.10 yards per attempt. And our miserable 2023 passing game produced 16 TDs to our rushing game's 13 TDs. But, because of PJ's game control orientation, we aren't really going to be competitive in tougher games unless and until we squeeze a lot more productions (yards and TDs) out of the 38% or so passes. Which is why it is best that Athan has moved on. And why Brosmer can make such a huge difference next year, especially in our many tough games.
Go Gophers.
www.twincities.com
