Notre Dame to the Big Ten?

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the "playoffs" issue is an interesting piece of the puzzle.

the push for an expanded playoff fell apart because the power-5 conferences could not agree on a system.

well, when the musical chairs stop, will there still be 5 'power' conferences?
who will decide the new playoff structure?
will there even be a playoff structure?

the current CFP contract expires after the 2025 season.

the worst-case scenario for Notre Dame would be this:
there is no playoff system, and
Notre Dame is still independent, or aligned with a 'lesser' conference.

staying independent is a big gamble. Notre Dame could stand to lose 100's of millions of $. In the end, I think they cut the best deal they can with the B1G or the SEC.
 

gopheraschells said:
sorry for being dense.. but can someone explain why Notre Dame is this golden goose? Are they really going to raise the number of viewers more than say Washington and the Seattle market? Seems like they are still running on the fumes of their prestige of the past? I am of the younger generation and couldn't care less about Notre Dame.

I hope they are the picky girl that declines all offers and they find there is no one else left to dance with. screw'em
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The theory is that they have a large following in the Catholic community and thus pull in a lot of viewers. I don't buy it. If we're going with that logic then either Army or Navy makes more sense.

Plus, the B1G really has a lot of leverage now over ND especially if we add Stanford. All we have to say is "sorry, we can't fit you into any more Non-conference game slots" and ND will end up having to play NDsu-type schools to get games.
 

Notre Dame also brings in a lot of viewers in the Chicago TV market. Yes, Northwestern is also in the Chicago market, but Notre Dame is a much bigger TV draw - and a bigger draw for advertisers.
 

We'll all know how ND is valued when their next tv contract comes up ('25). Obviously they are regarded well enough to have one on their own and the alumni support that funds that whole program despite being well behind the B1G and SEC. They seem to compete just fine. So no matter what we personally think of ND, the fact is they bring in lots of money and are highly sought after by most conferences. They will never be left without a dance partner.
 



Lot of good stuff in that article. Big issue is going to be how they address travel to and from LA.

“With an increased and anticipated increase in money, I think all of us have talked about we have to make sure if our soccer team or volleyball team is expected to go play on a Tuesday night in (Los Angeles) … we've been chartering in volleyball, but that might be a situation where maybe in the past we wouldn't have chartered in soccer, maybe we're going to have to now,” Barta said. “It's high on our list to look at scheduling and travel as it relates to student-athlete well-being in this new day.”
 

— On whether the Big Ten would consider adding other West Coast teams, like Oregon and Washington. “Again, my answer is very similar in that we've studied the types of schools. I'm not going to talk directly about any one school. I doubt that I'll be forced or asked to make that decision or our president will be this summer, so right now my sense is we are where we are, and we're going to move forward with who we have, with the addition of USC and UCLA. Right now I'm not really going to speculate whether or not, because I don't think we're going to be adding any more this summer. That's just one person's opinion.”

Interesting he says this right after...talking about one school. Reading his answers, he is purely speculating on his own.
 

Speculating but I don’t think the Big Ten is necessarily including school ADs in their email chains with the presidents.

The Big Ten has a strong hand; as time goes on the leftover schools may be increasingly willing to accept hard luck reduced distribution agreements. Will the bottom line projected revenue be the solitary criterion (beyond nebulous pompous elitism) for these decisions.

Interesting times.
 

Remember Barta was Senior Associate A.D. at Washington for 8 years. Also Ohio State’s A.D. Gene Smith is a graduate of N.D. It would seem both would sway opinions if asked to vote.
 




dlw4gophers said:
Really. Contracts mean very little in this day and age.
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At the very least, there is zero chance that the Big Ten will ban USC from playing Notre Dame. Maybe other members (though still highly unlikely, in my opinion).

The whole point of adding USC was to (eventually) try to induce Notre Dame to join.
 

PMWinSTP said:
— On whether the Big Ten would consider adding other West Coast teams, like Oregon and Washington. “Again, my answer is very similar in that we've studied the types of schools. I'm not going to talk directly about any one school. I doubt that I'll be forced or asked to make that decision or our president will be this summer, so right now my sense is we are where we are, and we're going to move forward with who we have, with the addition of USC and UCLA. Right now I'm not really going to speculate whether or not, because I don't think we're going to be adding any more this summer. That's just one person's opinion.”

Interesting he says this right after...talking about one school. Reading his answers, he is purely speculating on his own.
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The question was about "other West Coast teams, like Oregon and Washington".

He's referring to not talking about any one of those schools.


I don't think he's speculating, in the slightest. I think the AD's and BT commissioner run the show, day-to-day, and come up with the strategies, pros/cons, etc. Then when time comes to actually pull the lever(s), the presidents sit down, talk it out (in close consolation with the AD's and Warren), and pull them.

Presidents don't have time to be knee-deep in the weeds on conference realignment.
 

Dennis Dodd late Saturday article: www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/conference-realignment-phil-knight-resorts-to-cold-calling-for-oregon-as-pac-12-big-12-acc-seek-lifelines/

One industry source said it might take $500 million for a school to exit the ACC given the league's ironclad grant of rights that keeps schools in the conference until 2036. You can buy a lot of superstar coaches, $1 million coordinators, facilities and swag copters for that kind of money.

Some of the pressure has shifted to boosters. Will they make up the difference? Can the current rate of spend be sustained?


And for Notre Dame, which is "only" in the GoR for non-football, that would translate to more like $150M or so as an estimate.



If the delta between staying the ACC and moving to the Big Ten or SEC was $50M/year, then there you go, depending on when that level of money starts. "Only" takes 10 years to make that up, and there are 15 seasons over 2022-2036 to go.
 




Gophers_4life said:
At the very least, there is zero chance that the Big Ten will ban USC from playing Notre Dame. Maybe other members (though still highly unlikely, in my opinion).

The whole point of adding USC was to (eventually) try to induce Notre Dame to join.
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They didn't add USC to hopefully get Notre Dame. That's an ancillary benefit.

Getting USC, UCLA, the LA market, and preventing someone else from getting those schools was the whole point
 

It is really a no-brainer. ND has to join the B1G or in a few years they will be begging to join the Ivy League.

The two super conferences will BE major college sports. They will have their own National Championship between the two conferences. All other schools will be in a tier lower or below. All of the recruits will prefer to go to these conference schools. These schools will have the main NIL deals (expect for a few crazy boosters at their home small schools).

ND wants to remain independent to keep of the stature of their program. They are afraid that joining a conference will expose them like it did Pen State. It would be beneath ND to join the non-academic SEC, so the B1G and its natural rivals is the obvious choice.

As for Oregon or Cal, it is up to the B1G as they are the King Maker. Oregon is the favorite now, but it will dry up if it is not in one of the two super conferences. Whoever the B1G picks will get the recruits. Or maybe they chose Colorado because of its increasing TV market share and demographics.

I see the final four (to make 20) as being:
ND
Stanford
Washington
Oregon/Calf/Colorado or maybe another east coast ACC school.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Dennis Dodd late Saturday article: www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/conference-realignment-phil-knight-resorts-to-cold-calling-for-oregon-as-pac-12-big-12-acc-seek-lifelines/

One industry source said it might take $500 million for a school to exit the ACC given the league's ironclad grant of rights that keeps schools in the conference until 2036. You can buy a lot of superstar coaches, $1 million coordinators, facilities and swag copters for that kind of money.

Some of the pressure has shifted to boosters. Will they make up the difference? Can the current rate of spend be sustained?


And for Notre Dame, which is "only" in the GoR for non-football, that would translate to more like $150M or so as an estimate.



If the delta between staying the ACC and moving to the Big Ten or SEC was $50M/year, then there you go, depending on when that level of money starts. "Only" takes 10 years to make that up, and there are 15 seasons over 2022-2036 to go.
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Hmmm. Somehow EPSN was able to get the ACC to sign on to a twenty year media rights deal. That’s incredible. Power move. How that was arrived at would probably be an interesting fly on the wall story. Then the ACC schools agreed to extend the grant of rights to match, 20 years. If any school leaves their home game revenue remains property of ACC (and ESPN, who also own ACC network).

Notre Dame is football independent but ACC for other sports. If they jump ship for another conference (than the ACC) Notre Dame will have to write a check for those sports home game tv revenue (probably not a deal breaker) but the grant of rights penalty is $120M.

Send in the lawyers. Better call Saul.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Hmmm. Somehow EPSN was able to get the ACC to sign on to a twenty year media rights deal. That’s incredible. Power move. How that was arrived at would probably be an interesting fly on the wall story. Then the ACC schools agreed to extend the grant of rights to match, 20 years. If any school leaves their home game revenue remains property of ACC (and ESPN, who also own ACC network).

Notre Dame is football independent but ACC for other sports. If they jump ship for another conference (than the ACC) Notre Dame will have to write a check for those sports home game tv revenue (probably not a deal breaker) but the grant of rights penalty is $120M.

Send in the lawyers. Better call Saul.
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So the B1G could take ND in the fold for football, and not anything else, and ND gets to keep their $120M. They could still schedule non-conf games for hockey and such, but wouldn't be part of the conference. IMO, I'd pass on ND completely. They're kind of yesterday's news...
 

The Big 10 needs to land Stanford, who has one of the best men's and women's athletics program in the country. If Stanford goes to the SEC, the BIG will come out second in conference realignment. The SEC will likely get the other southeast powers. If the BIG gets Stanford, they will get Notre Dame.
 

walleye said:
The Big 10 needs to land Stanford, who has one of the best men's and women's athletics program in the country. If Stanford goes to the SEC, the BIG will come out second in conference realignment. The SEC will likely get the other southeast powers. If the BIG gets Stanford, they will get Notre Dame.
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Is there really any appetite from either Stanford or the SEC? Cultural mismatch to say the least.

Seems more likely that there could be a coast-to-coast "Brainiac Conference":

Duke
Wake Forest
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Rice
Vanderbilt
Stanford
Army
Air Force
Navy
 

Full Speed Ahead said:
So the B1G could take ND in the fold for football, and not anything else, and ND gets to keep their $120M. They could still schedule non-conf games for hockey and such, but wouldn't be part of the conference. IMO, I'd pass on ND completely. They're kind of yesterday's news...
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You're right, could be an option. Notre Dame’s tv contract runs through 2025. Do they feel they could negotiate a better ten year deal on their own than taking a Big Ten (or ACC) distribution. No idea. It seems odd a school would be part of two different conferences depending on sport.

Beyond that, will the prospect of the growing influence of ESPN and Fox on post-season playoff entrants ($$) make Notre Dame less relevant and potentially postseason wall flowers going forward. What if the Big Ten and SEC cut out everybody else from a postseason tourney - seems unlikely given the ESPN tribute and investment ACC conference but in regards to Notre Dame specifically that bias could be there.

Maybe everything stays status quo until 2030+.
 


Pompous Elitist said:
You're right, could be an option. Notre Dame’s tv contract runs through 2025. Do they feel they could negotiate a better ten year deal on their own than taking a Big Ten (or ACC) distribution. No idea. It seems odd a school would be part of two different conferences depending on sport.

Beyond that, will the prospect of the growing influence of ESPN and Fox on post-season playoff entrants ($$) make Notre Dame less relevant and potentially postseason wall flowers going forward. What if the Big Ten and SEC cut out everybody else from a postseason tourney - seems unlikely given the ESPN tribute and investment ACC conference but in regards to Notre Dame specifically that bias could be there.

Maybe everything stays status quo until 2030+.
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Forgetting all the rest of the hub-bub, there is still the issue of the next CFP TV contract to resolve.

As it is legally created now (to my understanding), there is some provision in the bylaws stating that 3 of the 5 "power" conferences have to vote for a proposed new TV deal in order for it to pass. So, the Big 12, PAC, and ACC hold that power over the SEC and Big Ten, should they decide that they want auto-bids for the P5 in the next structure. I think the Big Ten wanted that too. The G5 and the SEC were against it, and had worked out a deal last summer for it to be the top 6 highest ranked conference champions.

Does the SEC walk away, and take the G5 and ESPN with it? Make a new playoff altogether and dare any of the PAC, Big 12, Big Ten, and ACC not to sign up?


In that case, if I was the Big Ten I would absolutely give them the middle finger. I'd start a new playoff with the PAC, leading into the Rose Bowl, broadcast on FOX. Say the top 3 teams from the Big Ten and the top PAC team?
 

Ope3 said:
Is there really any appetite from either Stanford or the SEC? Cultural mismatch to say the least.

Seems more likely that there could be a coast-to-coast "Brainiac Conference":

Duke
Wake Forest
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Rice
Vanderbilt
Stanford
Army
Air Force
Navy
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I agree that Stanford and SEC are a cultural mismatch. Stanford fits BIG better because of its research mission and academics (Of, course this is all about academic quality. Ha, Ha). I don't see Northwestern and Vanderbilt leaving their conferences. The remaining "Brainiacs" would maybe fit together. The Army-Navy football game is the biggest TV draw and then Duke basketball. The rest have little national or big market interest and likely not attract Stanford. I see a show down between BIG and SEC vs. the NCAA. The super conferences will push to gain more of their objectives and voting power, which have been diluted by all the other conferences.
 

just a thought, but -

remember, the USC/UCLA deal came out of nowhere. Somebody posted something on Twitter in the morning, and there was official confirmation by that evening.

meaning that a LOT of discussion/negotiation was going on behind the scenes and very hush-hush. no leaks in this day and age is a pretty remarkable feat.

whatever happens next, I don't think we're going to get a lot of advance notice.

when/if a story comes out, that will be it. until then, it's all speculation. and 99% of the people doing the speculating will have no real information to base it on.
 

The longer it goes without the Big 10 TV Rights deal being announced, makes it more likely that something is still being discussed between the conference and Notre Dame.

That's what Dan Patrick was reporting on yesterday's show.
 

Ope3 said:
The longer it goes without the Big 10 TV Rights deal being announced, makes it more likely that something is still being discussed between the conference and Notre Dame.

That's what Dan Patrick was reporting on yesterday's show.
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That's definitely true.

Is it easier for ND to announce now and join in a few years, or announce in a few years when their deal is up with the Big Twn's agreement already in place?

Regardless, I think they're playing in the Big Ten sooner rather than later.
 

I thought the "target" was always to announce the deal by the end of July? But maybe I misread that somewhere.
 

TruthSeeker said:
That's definitely true.

Is it easier for ND to announce now and join in a few years, or announce in a few years when their deal is up with the Big Twn's agreement already in place?

Regardless, I think they're playing in the Big Ten sooner rather than later.
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I think that's why we're hearing about NBC/ND trying to find a partner to fill in games before and after. B1G said no. B12 is considering. ND wants to make $75M to stay independent otherwise they join a conference. Once they find this out a decision will be made.
 

Another possible reason the new TV being announced hasn't happened yet: there could be some real smoke to this idea that UCLA's spot is in jeopardy ...

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...explain-how-leaving-pac-12-big-ten-beneficial

In the wake of UCLA's departure to the Big Ten Conference alongside USC, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday he demands an explanation, on behalf of the public, for just how the move will be beneficial for not just student-athletes but the history of the partnership with UC Berkeley.

"The first duty of every public university is to the people -- especially students," Newsom said in a statement to the Los Angeles Times at Wednesday's meeting of the University of California Board of Regents in San Francisco. "UCLA must clearly explain to the public how this deal will improve the experience for all its student-athletes, will honor its century-old partnership with UC Berkeley, and will preserve the histories, rivalries, and traditions that enrich our communities."

UCLA's and USC's announcement last month that they would move to the Big Ten in 2024 was a shock to the college football world, as it strengthened one conference and left the Pac-12 and its members in a vulnerable position. Since then, the Pac-12 has announced it is willing to expand and will begin negotiations for a new media rights agreement. While USC is a private institution, UCLA's status as a public school raised eyebrows regarding the move as a school under the University of California system.

...

According to the Times, an idea that has been floated includes the regents imposing an exit fee that UCLA would have to pay to UC Berkeley or, in another case, having UCLA share the ensuing Big Ten TV revenue windfall with Berkeley.
 

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