Notre Dame to the Big Ten?

Donate To GopherHole

A source with knowledge of the school’s plans told Sports Illustrated‘s Pat Forde that the Irish’s priority is to remain independent in football. From Forde:

A source familiar with the school’s thinking told Sports Illustrated that “independence remains the preference and the leader in the clubhouse.” It will take a lot to move Notre Dame off its cherished identity, but the instability of the entire landscape remains a concern, and could further affect the Irish outlook."
 

Gophers_4life said:
All these huge dollar figures throw around right now, don't affect NIL at all.
Click to expand...

Yes and no. TV money may not impact NIL. But TV viewing does.

Recruiting wise, USC knows their players can demand more NIL money from companies by playing big games against Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, etc. , during regular daylight hours than they can regularly playing Washington State, Oregon State, Colorado, Cal, Utah, and Arizona with a 10pm ET kickoff.

The exponentially higher NIL potential played a big part in USC's decision to move to the Big Ten.
 

It is pretty clear that Notre Dame is just going to continue to wait, and wait, and wait, until circumstances put them into whatever the SEC will have become.

At this point they have effectively become an ally of the SEC.

Even Sweden is joining NATO. But Notre Dame still insists it can be “independent”. It just doesn’t work that way anymore.
 

Goldmember said:
It is pretty clear that Notre Dame is just going to continue to wait, and wait, and wait, until circumstances put them into whatever the SEC will have become.

At this point they have effectively become an ally of the SEC.

Even Sweden is joining NATO. But Notre Dame still insists it can be “independent”. It just doesn’t work that way anymore.
Click to expand...
They'll hold out until the CFP expires and then they're left without a chair.
 


discochris said:
It's a school northwest of the Twin Cities that apparently wins minor league football championships on a regular basis. The college football equivalent of winning the AAA World Series.
Click to expand...
I hope they don't brag about AAA Championships to the bigger schools?
 

My guess is ND is only interested in staying independent because they have no choice with the contract they signed with the ACC. In contract with ACC it states the only conference they can join is the ACC. My assumption is the cost of the exits is what is holding ND back and hence the desire to stay independent at this time. However, if the cost was less I am sure they would be moving over. B1G would not slow roll the other schools if they didn't think ND wasn't serious about moving over. ND like independence right now because this is what they lawyers are telling them they need to be right now.
 

Also, the NBC/ND contract is up in '25. So they save money waiting until then and there may be pressure from NBC to join B1G due to NBC's interest in this go around of B1G rights.
 

My guess is the B1G will look at pulling in Stanford in the meantime, as an additional pull for Notre Dame. At that point 2 of their 3 annual rivals would be in the B1G, plus 4 of their historic rivalries (Purdue, Michigan, MSU and NW) as well as 2 teams that are considered "significant series" (PSU and Nebraska).

At least, that's if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre_Dame_Fighting_Irish_football_rivalries is correct.
 



TruthSeeker said:
They'll hold out until the CFP expires and then they're left without a chair.
Click to expand...
Their AD (equivalent of a P5 commissioner) outlined three criteria which would force them to join a conference, according to Heather Dinich. (Paraphrasing here:)

1) can no longer get a TV partner to broadcast their home games
2) access to playoffs becomes detrimentally hampered by being independent
3) TV revenue so limited compared to the top confs that it detrimentally hampers competitiveness

So, it's either gonna be #2 (like you're saying), or #3 which is what the speculation was here for a hot second.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Their AD (equivalent of a P5 commissioner) outlined three criteria which would force them to join a conference, according to Heather Dinich. (Paraphrasing here:)

1) can no longer get a TV partner to broadcast their home games
2) access to playoffs becomes detrimentally hampered by being independent
3) TV revenue so limited compared to the top confs that it detrimentally hampers competitiveness

So, it's either gonna be #2 (like you're saying), or #3 which is what the speculation was here for a hot second.
Click to expand...
Yep. Number 1 won't happen.

Number 3 is happening.

Number 2 will happen.

It's just a matter of time until Notre Dame has to align with a conference.
 

TruthSeeker said:
Yep. Number 1 won't happen.

Number 3 is happening.

Number 2 will happen.

It's just a matter of time until Notre Dame has to align with a conference.
Click to expand...
#2 will likely happen but I assume there will always be some sort of wild card thing that will make it possible.

As far as #3, I'm not sure. Notre Dame can not compete with any conference, but isn't the real question whether or not a Notre Dame only TV deal would be more lucrative than THEIR SHARE of a deal from a larger conference? I really don't know the answer to that.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
#2 will likely happen but I assume there will always be some sort of wild card thing that will make it possible.

As far as #3, I'm not sure. Notre Dame can not compete with any conference, but isn't the real question whether or not a Notre Dame only TV deal would be more lucrative than THEIR SHARE of a deal from a larger conference? I really don't know the answer to that.
Click to expand...
They only get $15 million a year right now. It's already happened. It's just going to get much worse.
 



It is a two-edged sword for Notre Dame.
Their present and future TV revenue are going to be far less than that going to BIG and SEC schools.
The other edge to the sword is their alumni's contributions to ND may suffer if the ND cache' of being independent and thus a far cut above the rest of the trash schools in conferences is lost by ND joining a conference for football.
I would take Stanford and Cal in a heartbeat over ND and would love to see them in the SEC.
 

Notre Dame has to be either all in or out for all sports. Can't pick and choose. Thats the way it works with a conference in my opinion.
 

I’m guessing that Notre Dame is waiting for the B1G and SEC to poach enough ACC schools for the conference to fall apart and give them a legal argument to not pay the $100 million bill when they then choose to join the B1G.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
#2 will likely happen but I assume there will always be some sort of wild card thing that will make it possible.

As far as #3, I'm not sure. Notre Dame can not compete with any conference, but isn't the real question whether or not a Notre Dame only TV deal would be more lucrative than THEIR SHARE of a deal from a larger conference? I really don't know the answer to that.
Click to expand...
TruthSeeker said:
They only get $15 million a year right now. It's already happened. It's just going to get much worse.
Click to expand...
They also get a special share of the CFP deal themselves (instead of to the conference), and bowl payouts, etc. go directly to them, not shared with a conference.

But that said, let's say all of the revenue from media deals/payouts comes to $30-40M per year.

If the SEC and Big Ten are now cutting checks to each of their members for $80-100M ... obviously that's huge.


On the other hand, Notre Dame is completely private and can do whatever it wants (within the constraints of Title IX). My point is simply this: even if over half the athletic dept budget had to be directly funded by the school itself (rather than various revenue streams generated by the dept) ..... they could just do that.

I feel like it's reasonably safe to assume that Notre Dame Football will always and forever have whatever money is needed, however which way it has to be gotten (donations, direct funding by the school itself, etc.), to be nationally competitive.
 

I suspect the big ten is actively negotiating terms and conditions for admission of Notre dame with an end of July deadline. and I would pretty much bet Stanford is going to be part of the package that brings in the Irish. And if these negotiations fail, then I could see the big ten banning conference teams from scheduling the irish.
 

The prez sez said:
I suspect the big ten is actively negotiating terms and conditions for admission of Notre dame with an end of July deadline. and I would pretty much bet Stanford is going to be part of the package that brings in the Irish. And if these negotiations fail, then I could see the big ten banning conference teams from scheduling the irish.
Click to expand...
Could be. But the longer it goes without new news from the Big Ten ... I think the safer it is to assume that they're done for now with UCLA & USC, and will then announce the new TV with just those two additions. We'll see if the $80-100M/year/school estimate is correct or close.

THEN, the next rounds of posturing, "exploring options", and downstream moves will occur.


Assuming no more moves by the Big Ten, then you can say that the SEC and Big Ten did not see enough value in the remaining Big XII and PAC schools respectively to take any further additions beyond expanding to 16 each.

Clearly then, the biggest and best remaining expansion value for both of those conferences, lies in ACC schools (including Notre Dame, which is bound by the GoR in all sports outside football).
 

The prez sez said:
I suspect the big ten is actively negotiating terms and conditions for admission of Notre dame with an end of July deadline. and I would pretty much bet Stanford is going to be part of the package that brings in the Irish. And if these negotiations fail, then I could see the big ten banning conference teams from scheduling the irish.
Click to expand...
That seems far fetched and petty. Also it would probably torpedo their existence in Big 10 Hockey, probably of minor concern but not completely inconsequential.
 


Bob_Loblaw said:
#2 will likely happen but I assume there will always be some sort of wild card thing that will make it possible.

As far as #3, I'm not sure. Notre Dame can not compete with any conference, but isn't the real question whether or not a Notre Dame only TV deal would be more lucrative than THEIR SHARE of a deal from a larger conference? I really don't know the answer to that.
Click to expand...
A wild card won't help them any as their schedule will not be up to standards anymore. All the BIG has to do is shut them out of NC games.
 

How many votes are needed to disband the ACC and/or get ESPN release schools from the contract?

If the U of Miami, FSU, Clemson, Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and North Carolina all get incentives to go to a different conference I would imagine the whole league will fold. I think the next shift will be the SEC and B1G each going to 24 schools with the B12 going to 24 schools with the leftovers.

Interesting thing is if this happens B1G and B12 will each be national conferences with the SEC just being the South.
 

sorry for being dense.. but can someone explain why Notre Dame is this golden goose? Are they really going to raise the number of viewers more than say Washington and the Seattle market? Seems like they are still running on the fumes of their prestige of the past? I am of the younger generation and couldn't care less about Notre Dame.

I hope they are the picky girl that declines all offers and they find there is no one else left to dance with. screw'em
 


Gophers_4life said:
They also get a special share of the CFP deal themselves (instead of to the conference), and bowl payouts, etc. go directly to them, not shared with a conference.

But that said, let's say all of the revenue from media deals/payouts comes to $30-40M per year.

If the SEC and Big Ten are now cutting checks to each of their members for $80-100M ... obviously that's huge.


On the other hand, Notre Dame is completely private and can do whatever it wants (within the constraints of Title IX). My point is simply this: even if over half the athletic dept budget had to be directly funded by the school itself (rather than various revenue streams generated by the dept) ..... they could just do that.

I feel like it's reasonably safe to assume that Notre Dame Football will always and forever have whatever money is needed, however which way it has to be gotten (donations, direct funding by the school itself, etc.), to be nationally competitive.
Click to expand...
If I understand it correctly, Irish receive only about $3.2 million CFP payment annually unless it is selected for the semifinals, then it gets an additional payment for achieving that.
 

PMWinSTP said:
If I understand it correctly, Irish receive only about $3.2 million CFP payment annually unless it is selected for the semifinals, then it gets an additional payment for achieving that.
Click to expand...
And if I understand correctly about the Big Ten, the money that comes strictly from the CFP amounts to something like $4M per school. So not terribly far off, when just looking at CFP bit.
 

gopheraschells said:
sorry for being dense.. but can someone explain why Notre Dame is this golden goose? Are they really going to raise the number of viewers more than say Washington and the Seattle market? Seems like they are still running on the fumes of their prestige of the past? I am of the younger generation and couldn't care less about Notre Dame.

I hope they are the picky girl that declines all offers and they find there is no one else left to dance with. screw'em
Click to expand...
Were in the title game in 2012. Have been ranked in the top-15 seven of the past 10 seasons, and top-10 four of the past 10 seasons. There are a lot of Catholics who watch them religiously...pun sort of intended.
 

Gophers_4life said:
And if I understand correctly about the Big Ten, the money that comes strictly from the CFP amounts to something like $4M per school. So not terribly far off, when just looking at CFP bit.
Click to expand...
With its $15 million contract that means they get closer to $20 million a year total, unless they make the playoffs.
 

PMWinSTP said:
With its $15 million contract that means they get closer to $20 million a year total, unless they make the playoffs.
Click to expand...
They get some money from the ACC for the rest of sports. Could be $10M.

They can also have media deals specifically just with their own athletic dept. Think: radio, advertising, merchandise, etc. Perhaps at most schools that's peanuts, but maybe for them it's some millions per year. Spitballing there.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom