Minnesota at Michigan State line prediction, MSU opens as 3 point favorites

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SpartyOn said:
If the Gophers can consistently run the ball and dominate TOP they win comfortably. I don’t see it, though. The only thing MSU does well defensively is stop the run. That’s why I think it’s going to be a nail biter and will come down to the Gopher qb hitting wide open guys and not turning it over.
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Thanks for the fair and reasonable analysis from the other side.
 

SpartyOn said:
Only Ohio State and Purdue took advantage of guys running wide open last season. Apparently it’s no guarantee.
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Giving up 34 per game against the last 7 power 5 opponents and haven’t held a single one under 20
It isn’t just Purdue and Ohio state scoring points
 

Some guy said:
Giving up 34 per game against the last 7 power 5 opponents and haven’t held a single one under 20
It isn’t just Purdue and Ohio state scoring points
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True, but they’re the only ones who scored enough. Should be an interesting matchup.
 

SpartyOn said:
True, but they’re the only ones who scored enough. Should be an interesting matchup.
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More interesting matchup to me is Michigan state O vs Minnesota D

Minnesota O going to get theirs but not built to score 40

Minnesota will score between 20-35
Will Michigan state be able to score more?
Minnesota hasn’t given up more than 32 in a game since Nov 13, 2020 excluding the one Ohio state game
 
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btowngopher said:
He was solid. I wouldn’t call him an impact player. No reason Lindenberg can’t match what he did. Plus every other linebacker returned with another year of experience.
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Gibbens was our leading tackler, with 92. MSM with 85. Next was Nubin with under 60. Gibbens certainly can be replaced, but I think he was a key to our attaining a very high defensive ranking.
 


They have now gone to 1 point favorites.
 

SpartyOn said:
The question then becomes, can the gopher qb make the necessary plays through the air? One thing going for him is that he’ll have a lot of wide open options to choose from.
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Morgan is #14 in FBS for completion percentage. If all it takes for Minnesota to win is him hitting wide-open receivers, I like our chances.
 

Gophs are -1.5 on DraftKings. A little surprising for me.
 

The real season for MN is about to begin.
MSU's real season started last Saturday.
The average better may have only looked at MN's record particularly the win against CO and MSU losing big to an unknown WA and took MN and the points so the books changed the line to keep the bets more even.
 



I expect MSU will sell out to limit the Gopher running game. And MSU's running game looked good against weak opponents..not so much against Washington. The game may hinge on which QB has the most success, and Thorne is one of those QBs that drive opposing teams nuts by making something out of nothing when he gets chased out of the pocket.
 

Some guy said:
More interesting matchup to me is Michigan state O vs Minnesota D

Minnesota O going to get theirs but not built to score 40

Minnesota will score between 20-35
Will Michigan state be able to score more?
Minnesota hasn’t given up more than 32 in a game since Nov 13, 2020 excluding the one Ohio state game
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Their average score for the season is 49.6 points...
 


cjbfbp said:
Yes, this is one of those circumstances where schadenfreude is short-lived. It only lasts until you realize that you're going on the road with a couple of key injuries to meet an angry team that has some undeniable talent.
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It's a B1G road game, the Gophers' first road game of the season. I wouldn't bet on the Gophers in this game at all.

This will be a tough game to win but either way, it should tell us a lot about just who the Gophers are this year.
 



SpartyOn said:
That’s why I think MSU will squeak one out. They’ll be able to severely limit the Minnesota run game. The question then becomes, can the gopher qb make the necessary plays through the air? One thing going for him is that he’ll have a lot of wide open options to choose from.
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Penix diced up MSU’s secondary in part because he unloaded the ball quickly, rendering MSU’s pass rush ineffective. I suspect that, if we get the running game going, then quick hitting RPO passes might be there for us. Slow developing dropback passes? Maybe will work out in the heavy protect package, but our WRs must get separation. If Dylan W, BSM, MBS, Jackson and Geary have a good day at the office, and our defense isn’t a paper tiger, we should leave Spartan Stadium with a victory. If we are forced to rely on the running game too much, because passing is ineffective, MSU probably wins.
 


This looks like it’s going to be a dogfight. If Tanner is “on” we will win. If he’s off it looks like running on MSU isn’t an easy task. That will be maybe the biggest story. Individual efforts and matchups. Can Carroll keep Windmon at bay? Will the receivers win their matchups. Ciarrocca will have a good plan of attack.

Thorne looks like a good QB and they have at least a few weapons. Washington might have snuck up on them a little, that won’t be the case this week. I expect both teams are going to be locked in. These kinds of games are what we live for as fans. Chili is nuclear.
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
Many seem to think the gophers losing would be a big upset.
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I must have missed that. Which thread?

I know a lot of Gopher fans and not one has said this is a gimme or even close to that.

I think most consider this one of the tougher games on the schedule, as it is.
 


tjgopher said:
I must have missed that. Which thread?

I know a lot of Gopher fans and not one has said this is a gimme or even close to that.

I think most consider this one of the tougher games on the schedule, as it is.
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Other games thread was very critical of MSU
 

noamfromm said:
The run game's success will allow the gophers to take advantage of MSU's defense. Thank you for posting on the board, but I think you'll realize next week that you don't need Stroud or Penix to get beaten. An Adrian Martinez was a shanked punt away from being sufficient.
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Amir? Is that you?
 

Mo is going to truck some backers next Saturday.
 

MSU pass defense is pathetic. The Spartans will try to keep the Gophers off the field bu using a lot of ground game. MSU fails at whackamole and the Gophers by 10.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Other games thread was very critical of MSU
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They dropped out of the top 25 from 11, so the criticism is deserved. They haven't looked good most of the year and were a fraudulent top 10 team who will finish 4th or 5th in the East.
 

SpartyOn said:
If the Gophers can consistently run the ball and dominate TOP they win comfortably. I don’t see it, though. The only thing MSU does well defensively is stop the run. That’s why I think it’s going to be a nail biter and will come down to the Gopher qb hitting wide open guys and not turning it over.
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Sparty has not faced a rushing offense the likes of Gophs. Nothing even remotely close. Huskies have a rush offense worse than Sparty.
 

mnsportsgeek said:
They dropped out of the top 25 from 11, so the criticism is deserved. They haven't looked good most of the year and were a fraudulent top 10 team who will finish 4th or 5th in the East.
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Finishing 4th in the east behind 3 top 10 teams. Doesn’t mean they are shitty.
 

Giving the home team 3 points if you’re unsure … makes sense to me.
 

UMwolverine said:
I expect MSU will sell out to limit the Gopher running game. And MSU's running game looked good against weak opponents..not so much against Washington. The game may hinge on which QB has the most success, and Thorne is one of those QBs that drive opposing teams nuts by making something out of nothing when he gets chased out of the pocket.
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I don't think that will help. Gophs will pound the ball hard and wear down the line by halftime. I see a pretty balanced offense from Gophs that Sparty won't stop.
 

As of Monday night, the public lines I see (I don’t bet) have shifted around: Gophers now favored by 2.5. It’ll be dogfight regardless of betting lines.
 

I've posted this on another thread in August but I'll repeat myself, if the Gophers win this game they run the table. It's a huge opportunity.
 

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