Minnesota at Michigan State line prediction, MSU opens as 3 point favorites

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UpAndUnder43 said:
I think MSU is being underrated by this board.
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Nah. MSU basically has good skill players on offense, a below average OL, and three good defenders, of which two of the three are out with injuries. Windmon is the only plus defender, with a handful of serviceable guys, and the rest are bums.

Tucker hit the lottery with K9 last season and has been trying to patch the deficiencies with portal kids again. Recruiting has been stellar, but those kids are all freshmen and aren’t in the 2 deeps.

MSU 24
Gophers 23
 

MSU has the advantage of having been in a very physical game that exposed their weak and strong points.
Their DC knows that he cannot allow Morgan any time to get settled in the pocket and that first MSU has to stop MN's running game.
Will PJ start by throwing the ball or revert to form and pound it between tackles?
We all know the answer to that question.
 

SpartyOn said:
Nah. MSU basically has good skill players on offense, a below average OL, and three good defenders, of which two of the three are out with injuries. Windmon is the only plus defender, with a handful of serviceable guys, and the rest are bums.

Tucker hit the lottery with K9 last season and has been trying to patch the deficiencies with portal kids again. Recruiting has been stellar, but those kids are all freshmen and aren’t in the 2 deeps.

MSU 24
Gophers 23
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So MSU is terrible but will win?
 


U2Gopher said:
I absolutely agree with this take. While I don’t think we have an “easy” game left on our schedule, I’d argue that Michigan State is the toughest game left on our schedule. Our defense lost a lot from last year and is untested this year. I think we have better depth on defense than last year but I don’t know that we have the “impact” players that we had last year. We will see what we truly have on that side of the ball this coming Saturday. If we pull this game out on the road in a place we historically don’t play well at, it could mean we truly have something.

But this game is going to be extremely tough and I think very, very physical. We will need to really run the ball well and control the clock. Need to keep their offense off the field.
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The only defensive player we lost that I think was an impact player was Mafe. I think the defense is better this year.
 



Plato said:
MSU has the advantage of having been in a very physical game that exposed their weak and strong points.
Their DC knows that he cannot allow Morgan any time to get settled in the pocket and that first MSU has to stop MN's running game.
Will PJ start by throwing the ball or revert to form and pound it between tackles?
We all know the answer to that question.
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How is being exposed an advantage? They can’t stop the gopher run game. Fleck doesn’t have to change the offense in my opinion.
 




SpartyOn said:
By one point. A good QB, RBs, WRs and TEs will win 7-8 games. I don’t think Minnesota can take advantage of MSU’s shortcomings like an Ohio State or Penix can, IMO.
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That’s fair. I think it will be close. Would be a good win for either team.
 


correct me if I'm wrong, but home field advantage is usually factored into a betting line. If the two teams are considered even, the home team has a perceived advantage.

so, with the betting line of 2 to 3 points favoring the home team, I take that to mean that this is expected to be a very even game.

the type of game that the Gophers have to win if they really want to win the division.

granted - a loss does not end the season, but it removes any margin for error down the road.

if the Gophers are really a good team, winning games like this is how they prove it. or not.
 





Plato said:
MSU has the advantage of having been in a very physical game that exposed their weak and strong points.
Their DC knows that he cannot allow Morgan any time to get settled in the pocket and that first MSU has to stop MN's running game.
Will PJ start by throwing the ball or revert to form and pound it between tackles?
We all know the answer to that question.
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They’re gonna have ‘Mo problems
 

SpartyOn said:
Nah. MSU basically has good skill players on offense, a below average OL, and three good defenders, of which two of the three are out with injuries. Windmon is the only plus defender, with a handful of serviceable guys, and the rest are bums.

Tucker hit the lottery with K9 last season and has been trying to patch the deficiencies with portal kids again. Recruiting has been stellar, but those kids are all freshmen and aren’t in the 2 deeps.

MSU 24
Gophers 23
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A team with a below average O line and only three good defenders, with two of them being out is unlikely to beat Minnesota. Minnesota has a very solid team this year.

Yet somehow MSU is still favored, and you yourself picked them to win. Hmmmm. Perhaps you are being a little too pessimistic about your squad, or are sandbagging so all potential outcomes are addressed.
 


SpartyOn said:
By one point. A good QB, RBs, WRs and TEs will win 7-8 games. I don’t think Minnesota can take advantage of MSU’s shortcomings like an Ohio State or Penix can, IMO.
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The run game's success will allow the gophers to take advantage of MSU's defense. Thank you for posting on the board, but I think you'll realize next week that you don't need Stroud or Penix to get beaten. An Adrian Martinez was a shanked punt away from being sufficient.
 

Fair line. MSU has more talent top to bottom than Minnesota but should be a good game. I’m looking forward to it and hope the Gophs can pull it out.
 

RememberMurray said:
I'll agree with that. I was impressed with Washington.

As far as Sparty is concerned, they're not the 11th best team in the country. But I disagree with the folks who say they're awful. They look like an 8-4, 7-5 team to me. Better than average, but certainly not Ohio State or Michigan level.
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I agree with this! They already have one loss, they are unlikely to win against OSU and Michigan, throw in us and PSU as 50/50, it's easy to see an 8-4 or 7-5 record.
 

btowngopher said:
The only defensive player we lost that I think was an impact player was Mafe. I think the defense is better this year.
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Gibbens played a real nice linebacker.

Durr was solid cover corner and physical vs run.

Otomewo was a good def end.

Pinckney and DewTreadway were good DTs.

The defense may end up better this year.

Front seven have not been tested by a good run game.

Secondary hasn’t faced a good pass game.

T Smith, Nubin, Walley, Howden look very good so far. Stapp, Bishop and Dixon playing well.
 

SpartyOn said:
Nah. MSU basically has good skill players on offense, a below average OL, and three good defenders, of which two of the three are out with injuries. Windmon is the only plus defender, with a handful of serviceable guys, and the rest are bums.

Tucker hit the lottery with K9 last season and has been trying to patch the deficiencies with portal kids again. Recruiting has been stellar, but those kids are all freshmen and aren’t in the 2 deeps.

MSU 24
Gophers 23
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Come to troll?
 

noamfromm said:
The run game's success will allow the gophers to take advantage of MSU's defense. Thank you for posting on the board, but I think you'll realize next week that you don't need Stroud or Penix to get beaten. An Adrian Martinez was a shanked punt away from being sufficient.
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That’s why I think MSU will squeak one out. They’ll be able to severely limit the Minnesota run game. The question then becomes, can the gopher qb make the necessary plays through the air? One thing going for him is that he’ll have a lot of wide open options to choose from.
 

SpartyOn said:
That’s why I think MSU will squeak one out. They’ll be able to severely limit the Minnesota run game. The question then becomes, can the gopher qb make the necessary plays through the air? One thing going for him is that he’ll have a lot of wide open options to choose from.
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Then we agree on the crux of matter. If we can't
run we lose. If we can, I don't think the offense I saw against the huskies can beat us.
 

noamfromm said:
Then we agree on the crux of matter. If we can't
run we lose. If we can, I don't think the offense I saw against the huskies can beat us.
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If the Gophers can consistently run the ball and dominate TOP they win comfortably. I don’t see it, though. The only thing MSU does well defensively is stop the run. That’s why I think it’s going to be a nail biter and will come down to the Gopher qb hitting wide open guys and not turning it over.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Gibbens wasn’t exactly chopped liver.
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He was solid. I wouldn’t call him an impact player. No reason Lindenberg can’t match what he did. Plus every other linebacker returned with another year of experience.
 

swingman said:
Gibbens played a real nice linebacker.

Durr was solid cover corner and physical vs run.

Otomewo was a good def end.

Pinckney and DewTreadway were good DTs.

The defense may end up better this year.

Front seven have not been tested by a good run game.

Secondary hasn’t faced a good pass game.

T Smith, Nubin, Walley, Howden look very good so far. Stapp, Bishop and Dixon playing well.
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Gibbens was fine. I’ll take every returning lb minus Gibbens over last years linebackers. Durr was solid too, but again I’ll take this years dbs with their experience over last years. D line is less experienced than last year, but I don’t see a huge drop off outside of Mafe.
 

SpartyOn said:
If the Gophers can consistently run the ball and dominate TOP they win comfortably. I don’t see it, though. The only thing MSU does well defensively is stop the run. That’s why I think it’s going to be a nail biter and will come down to the Gopher qb hitting wide open guys and not turning it over.
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Are you expecting Morgan to miss a lot of wide open receivers? He's pretty accurate.
 

Dakota2 said:
Are you expecting Morgan to miss a lot of wide open receivers? He's pretty accurate.
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Only Ohio State and Purdue took advantage of guys running wide open last season. Apparently it’s no guarantee.
 

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