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balds said:
From today's options market: over 250,000 SPY June 20 Puts at $0.05, which means that one is betting on roughly a 91% fall from here by mid June. a $1.25 million bet.
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That seems very unlikely? We're already down 30ish % from all time high? So that would be something like down 93% from all time high? I feel like the federal government would close in and close the stock market before that happened?
 

MplsGopher said:
That seems very unlikely? We're already down 30ish % from all time high? So that would be something like down 93% from all time high? I feel like the federal government would close in and close the stock market before that happened?
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Yeah. That's too extreme. I'll be very surprised if the bottom is below 15K.
 


I think there's room to drop. Wait for GDP numbers are earning reports. If we're looking at a 5% GDP drop in Q1, we'll drop more for sure. That will indicate a double digit drop in Q2.

I don't think the GDP numbers are priced in yet. There's too much unknown.
 

Futures are crashing. Tomorrow will get really ugly if a stimulus deal isn't agreed upon before the markets open.
 





Wild ride, hit the limit down last night, go significantly positive this morning then open down.
 



As a long time market investor I have learned to ignore the ups and downs of the market and to just stick with the long term plan. But, by nature, I am not a market player, just a guy who wants to own good companies in the long run. "Don't try to catch a falling blade." And, "you'll know when we have hit the bottom when you see total capitulation."
 

MplsGopher said:
That seems very unlikely? We're already down 30ish % from all time high? So that would be something like down 93% from all time high? I feel like the federal government would close in and close the stock market before that happened?
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How do they do that? "No one is allowed to sell their stock or buy stock"? "No one is allowed sell their house or buy a house"?? "No one is allowed to sell their car any more or buy a car anymore"??? Yep, that will calm things down and provide confidence.
 

They step in to stop runs on banks, as is correct. Try reading history Veritas, you might learn something.
 






Looks like some of this stuff has been priced into the markets already. I was surprised by the jobless claims. Thought maybe 2.5 million... but over 3 wow. But up the markets go.
 

MplsGopher said:
They step in to stop runs on banks, as is correct. Try reading history Veritas, you might learn something.
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Just for the record. I have three university majors: BA in Political Science and Economics and a Masters in History. Thus, well read in both economic history and history in general. My informal recollection is that the banks closed because the banks wanted to close, not because the government ordered them closed.
 

I think the stock market has further to go, down, down, down.
 



Veritas said:
Just for the record. I have three university majors: BA in Political Science and Economics and a Masters in History. Thus, well read in both economic history and history in general. My informal recollection is that the banks closed because the banks wanted to close, not because the government ordered them closed.
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From Trump University.
 

jamiche said:
From Trump University.
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Do I pick up my delicious steaks there as well as learning how to do stuff?
www.wsj.com

Trump University Fraud Cases Settled for $25 Million

President-elect Donald Trump is in advanced talks to settle litigation in New York and California involving allegations of fraud at the now-defunct Trump University—an agreement that would resolve a major litigation headache before he enters the White House.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 


Bad Gopher said:
I wonder myself. Any insights by market watchers? Personally I'm not sure that the depth of the coming recession is necessarily reflected in the market drop to date.
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I think you're right. I think it'll drop much lower than the low we saw a week or two ago. S&P 500 down to 1500 wouldn't shock me at all.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Personally I'm not sure that the depth of the coming recession is necessarily reflected in the market drop to date.
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Yes, I'm not sure how anyone would know "the depth" of this ocean very precisely. We probably can assume that when people are permitted and comfortable congregating and shopping, there will be a huge upswing in spending. But, we don't know for sure when that permission and, more importantly, that comfort will occur.
 

How far the market goes down should not matter to an individual investor. It matters to the economy as a whole, but as an individual it is just a chance to buy some shares you could not afford two months ago. You don't need to sell anything now. Now if you are a market speculator, that is different story.
 

bottlebass said:
Below it's previous low? Or just down from here.
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I think the market has a lot further to go, down, down, down; because the virus has more body counts to go, up, up, up. In other words, the market is too optimistic now.

I hope I'm wrong but so far I have not been pessimistic enough. The virus continues to exceed my worst expectations.
 
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The market, and humans, seem to be very poor at long-term thinking. I don't think the market has fully priced this virus. The people buying and selling have no ability to understand how bad this will be.
 

It's starting to come back down a bit. Wonder if it will come close (or surpass) the initial low set back on last Monday? That would be more like a 2008 trend, than any other times in the last few decades where we had 20% drop from the high.
 

Its definitely going to bounce back and forth like this. Time will tell if the 19k last monday was the bottom.
 

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