There are a lot of reasons why we didn't get in. But the biggest thing is simply that after we lost those back to back games vs NW and Purdue, one being a home game even, we basically got written off. The experts put us out of their minds for the most part. Iowa was considered a lock at the time and no one, besides myself that I know of, saw the Nebraska thing coming. Before their NW road win I predicted at another site that Nebraska had a realistic shot of getting in IF the first beat NW on the road. After they did, I said they were headed for the Dance.
And the thing is, while Nebraska struggled and looked horrid early, and I mean BAD, 8-5 or 10-5 in the ooc I think, and then started out 0-4 in conf?! That actually helped them, because they got all of the tough games out of the way, and even a bad loss to PSU went unnoticed. Not because it wasn't a bad loss, but because no one was even paying attention to Nebraska at the time.
So Iowa was seen as a lock, Richmond was a Top 50 rated Road win for us, FSU was on the rise and in the Top 50 for a time, all things were going well for us, and then Nebraska enters the easier half of their schedule, just after we suffer those back to back bad losses, THAT EVERYONE DID NOTICE, because they WERE paying attention to us, until we lost those games of course, and then things changed in the minds and perceptions of those paying attention. Richmond loses their best player and starts to drop, FSU starts to drop, Iowa starts to drop and so even when we beat them, people thought "no big deal, home game vs a reeling team" and also, the thing about Iowa was they were better than their rating. Ken-pom and Sagarin both had them in the Top 20, we had 3 wins vs Top 20 teams according to those ratings, and FSU is still Top 50 in those 2 as well, so 4 Top 50 wins just like SMU. And btw, PSU beat Nebraska AND swept OSU, and was Top 75 in the Sagarin Ratings, and we beat them 3 times, 1 Road, 1 home and 1 neutral, and not a single cbb fan out there could care less because the RPI has them out of the Top 100 and Iowa out of the Top 50 much less the Top 20. Oh wait, not until AFTER we beat them to knock them out of the Top 50.
But Iowa, despite the 1-6 finish, was considered in, Nebraska fooled everyone with smoke and mirrors and a lot of home wins and a run at the end that impressed everyone cept Big Ten fans that might have known the scheduling issues, as they had the easiest big ten schedule ever!!! But yet I saw a lot of Big Ten fans and Gopher fans who were very impressed with Nebraska. Like the Larry Brown effect has people going gaga over SMU, Nebraska's new coach and new arena ad practice facility has alot of Gopher fans jealous of them, and hence possibly more impressed than they should be. Don't get me wrong, they did get a road win vs Indiana was it? And are deserving of an NCAA bid, and that win helped seal the deal for Nebraska, after that they become a lock and Iowa actually was probably the bubble big ten team that we could have traded places with, had we not lost to Wisconsin, or at least not lost in such an embarrassing manner.
But I wonder if our getting in close to last 4 in last year, with Iowa kind of near the last 4 out, had anyone thinking "ah, lets keep Iowa in this time and leave Minny out, they lost badly to Wisconsin, no one will care but some Gopher fans?" Not a big on the theory that there is a conspiracy around every corner, so not being too serious about this last part.
Nebraska had 3 bad losses but end of the year runs and late season road wins go along way and are things that are fresh in people's minds.
Heck, I had an NCSU fan tell me how the Gophers CRUMBLED at the end of the season, he pointed out our 5-8 finish. When I pointed out that we went 5-5 in our last 10, same as NCSU, he didn't even have a clue. The impression was locked in his mind about us. I'm guessing the Selection Committee thought much like he was thinking in regards to us, so despite the win over Iowa and the back to back wins over PSU, it was still felt we needed that one more big win which unfortunately for us would have had to been against a team that was 8-1 in its last 9 games with their only loss being the road loss to Nebraska a team that had only lost 1 home game all year, by 1 point, to Michigan, and who is now being picked by some to make the Final Four.
NCSU now, is beating a Pittsburgh team that is dropping in the polls, kind of like Iowa, the difference being the RPI was nicer to Pitt and it was a road game. They beat FSU which was a double kick in the nuts for us, although had FSU won that game they might have gotten in over us instead?! They were right there as well despite the loss to NCSU. But then they get to face a Syracuse team that despite going 2-4 in the their last 6 games, including losses to a 150+ rated team and a 200+ rated team, was still rated Top 15 for some reason, and they beat them, which looked more impressive than it actually was.
Basically, things just didn't fall into place for us, the timing of things hurt us more than if the same things had taken place at different times. And things did fall into place for NCSU.
Now? I have high hopes for UMn AND PSU to do well in the NIT and the CBi, and for NCSU to lose in the play in game, setting up a hopeful meeting of UMn and SMU in MSG. I think that would really be a great matchup and a game that would get a lot of attention. In the end, if we win that game, the U of Mn and Pitino could get a lot more positive attention shown on it than NCSU if they do lose that first game as it was pretty unanimous from what I could tell that they were the weakest at large team to get in.
