Is This the End of College Football?

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GopherWeatherGuy

GopherWeatherGuy

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I scratched my head when the Rock bought the XFL after it failed once again. However, now would be the time to capitalize on a cancelled college football season to start up a private (bubble?) league of college athletes willing to give up their eligibility in order to showcase their talents for the NFL.

This would be the start of the NFL version of the G league. Here you don't have to 'play school' and can get paid to play the game you love. If you're a JR or SR in college, our just out of college trying to make the NFL this year, why not sign a contract to play if you want to play. The demand to play would be as large as the ratings they would get without a college football season.
 

I agree. The rock and his partners are genius for getting a head start on minor league football.
 


Sure, give that a shot. Probably should be an avenue like that for kids that don’t see the value of a college education.
 



Haven't we said this every time the XFL or similar league comes up? That it will become this great minor league football thing? Then the product comes out and we all realize again that football is really hard to watch when the QBs are not very good?
 

upnorthkid said:
Haven't we said this every time the XFL or similar league comes up? That it will become this great minor league football thing? Then the product comes out and we all realize again that football is really hard to watch when the QBs are not very good?
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Unless you have top QB prospects playing.

The XFL keeps failing because they start the season right after we've had 5-6 months of non-stop pro and college football.

We've now gone 6 months without football, won't have any college football, and who knows what will happen with the NFL. If they could get the league going again in the next few months, and have good college players join, there would be a big appetite for it.

In the future, top high school players would have an interesting decision to make. Go to school and play for a scholarship? Or go to the XFL, and get paid via a regular contract and have endorsement opportunities until they are eligible for the NFL.
 

The XFL won't happen this fall. If it somehow miraculously does, I'll probably watch.

If the SEC keeps their fall season, those schools will be cleaning up on TV revenue with a damn near monopoly on major college football. As much as I've hated most of those schools, I'll be watching.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Unless you have top QB prospects playing.

The XFL keeps failing because they start the season right after we've had 5-6 months of non-stop pro and college football.

We've now gone 6 months without football, won't have any college football, and who knows what will happen with the NFL. If they could get the league going again in the next few months, and have good college players join, there would be a big appetite for it.

In the future, top high school players would have an interesting decision to make. Go to school and play for a scholarship? Or go to the XFL, and get paid via a regular contract and have endorsement opportunities until they are eligible for the NFL.
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Big unless and add on top of that that even the top QBs are a mixed bag of who ends up being a hit and who ends up being a miss. Given that, are you going to tell me that you're going to get enough players to buy in at the top to make it work? I don't imagine so based on what we've seen before but maybe this group will do a much better job this time around.
 




End of college football? No, but I suspect some serious changes are in order. !00+ rosters, 85 scholarships, $10 Million coaches staffs, huge recruiting budgets...not sure how the business model can support it at the same level.

This is more than a 1 yr blip in terms of revenue as I suspect there were will be fewer tickets sold, donations, corporate sponsors, and if the golden goose of TV revenue goes down or even plateaus...look out below.
 





Not the end of College Football.

But maybe, an opportunity to take a long, hard look at the current system and see if there are any alternatives.

Will players make a serious attempt at some type of union or collective bargaining organization?

Will colleges look at a different method of compensating players - stipends, salaries, etc?

Will we see more top players bailing after 2 years to go pro - the "Bateman" model?

Would the NFL consider changes in its policy for when players become draft-eligible?

This could be the start of something new and different. Going back to the status quo after all of this seems less likely.
 

I don't know why anyone would take the risk. The past few NFL competitors haven't gone well. The XFL and AAF both failed within the first season, the UFL lasted 4 seasons with 2 being shortened, and the USFL lasted 3 seasons. New or returning competing leagues will have a significant risk of folding before 3 years. Even in the best case scenario where a league lasts 3+ years so players can go straight from high school to the league to the NFL and the league doesn't lower/fail to pay salaries, players would make well less than the NFL minimum salary in that time. Better than college (without anything happening under the table) but not that much.

And, with the NCAA starting to allow endorsements, there's a decent chance that a top recruit could make more in endorsements at a helmet school than they would make from salary in the XFL or other league. There's a ton of risk for very little reward.

If a league can get set up to play before the 2021 NFL draft, I bet it could get quite a few players looking to go into the 2021 draft who want more chances to prove themselves. Long-term I don't see it being successful until they can get to the point where they offer decent salaries and operate for multiple years without financial issues.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Not the end of College Football.

But maybe, an opportunity to take a long, hard look at the current system and see if there are any alternatives.

Will players make a serious attempt at some type of union or collective bargaining organization?

Will colleges look at a different method of compensating players - stipends, salaries, etc?

Will we see more top players bailing after 2 years to go pro - the "Bateman" model?

Would the NFL consider changes in its policy for when players become draft-eligible?

This could be the start of something new and different. Going back to the status quo after all of this seems less likely.
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Colleges will not pay salaries, they already pay stipends. Very few schools actually make profits on sports. All the numbers are available for every single public school.
 

Panthadad2 said:
The XFL won't happen this fall. If it somehow miraculously does, I'll probably watch.

If the SEC keeps their fall season, those schools will be cleaning up on TV revenue with a damn near monopoly on major college football. As much as I've hated most of those schools, I'll be watching.
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Their TV revenue depends on the number of cable customers not the number of viewers. Why is that so hard to understand?
 

Ope3 said:
End of college football? No, but I suspect some serious changes are in order. !00+ rosters, 85 scholarships, $10 Million coaches staffs, huge recruiting budgets...not sure how the business model can support it at the same level.

This is more than a 1 yr blip in terms of revenue as I suspect there were will be fewer tickets sold, donations, corporate sponsors, and if the golden goose of TV revenue goes down or even plateaus...look out below.
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I agree with everything except I think the interest in college football will be huge by 2021 and if there is a treatment or vaccine I think attendance will be quite good here.
 

An issue with the XFL and AAF was the QB's don't have time to get comfortable with an offense.
It's all thrown together with random coaches and QB's and only given a couple weeks to prepare with no pre-season.

The product would probably improve a lot if they simply got to a second season in some cases.

I think the only way a real NFL competitor happens is if they form a league and have each team issue an IPO so it's a publicly traded company that fans can buy into. I'd be far more likely to watch a team if I had an invested interest.
 

Mulligan said:
Yep, a comparison of defeating Nazis versus playing a game for your entertainment shows you, indeed, are a deep thinker. :ROFLMAO:
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If you don't see that successful risk taking is a developmental process, and that learning to take small risks for small rewards is preparatory to taking large risks for incalculable rewards then you are not a strategic thinker. Think harder.
 

Face The Facts said:
An issue with the XFL and AAF was the QB's don't have time to get comfortable with an offense.
It's all thrown together with random coaches and QB's and only given a couple weeks to prepare with no pre-season.

The product would probably improve a lot if they simply got to a second season in some cases.

I think the only way a real NFL competitor happens is if they form a league and have each team issue an IPO so it's a publicly traded company that fans can buy into. I'd be far more likely to watch a team if I had an invested interest.
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I wouldn’t mind seeing another NFL league, particularly in cities/markets that either had and lost teams (Oakland, San Diego, STL) or likely csn never get teams due to existing teams claiming their markets (Portland, Salt Lake, Louisville, Birmingham, Memphis).
 

It's football, there are risks that come with it. I think that's one factor to consider. Lot more difficulties than say basketball with 50 guys versus 10.
If I could play college football going forward in front 50,000 to 100,000 fans I'm going to do that, unless I'm guaranteed crazy money which is doubtful from a startup league.

We shall see where the rules go but there is lots of agent talk about the really good college players making $100,000 plus as freshman. I don't think they can put a cap on it. It'll escalate quickly.
There are everyday people earning a $100,000 a month on youtube. What's the ceiling for a popular college athlete doing something similar? What's the limit to what Nike, Adidas etc are going to pay?
Booster companies? Gatorade? The list is endless of ways for college "stars" to get paid. It'll be all about bending the rules to comply, but it is coming.
Appearance fees for autographs...easy way to pay an athlete exorbitant money. The sponsor with no concern of ever getting their money back in sales. Just play for "my school."
 
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60's Guy said:
It's football, there are risks that come with it. I think that's one factor to consider. Lot more difficulties than say basketball with 50 guys versus 10.
If I could play college football going forward in front 50,000 to 100,000 fans I'm going to do that, unless I'm guaranteed crazy money which is doubtful from a startup league.

We shall see where the rules go but there is lots of agent talk about the really good college players making $100,000 plus as freshman. I don't think they can put a cap on it. It'll escalate quickly.
There are everyday people earning a $100,000 a month on youtube. What's the ceiling for a popular college athlete doing something similar? What's the limit to what Nike, Adidas etc are going to pay?
Booster companies? Gatorade? The list is endless of ways for college "stars" to get paid. It'll be all about bending the rules to comply, but it is coming.
Appearance fees for autographs...easy way to pay an athlete exorbitant money. The sponsor with no concern of ever getting their money back in sales. Just play for "my school."
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someone call the bagman and let him know he's out of a job
 

Danny Kannell said something interesting on Twitter when comparing Minor League sports (he played Minor League Baseball) and D1 Football (FSU QB). I don't remember the exact wording he used, but basically there is no comparison. At FSU he had the best of the best at the time when it comes to facilities, training, rehab, great meals throughout the week, great hotels, etc. While playing Minor League Baseball he was on charter buses, eating fast food, staying at cheaper hotels.

The XFL could steal some guys, but why would you pass up being treated like a king at some of these schools vs. what you have in the XFL?
 


It has always truly amazed me that the NFL has taken 0 heat in the debate over the compensating college football players argument. They are now the ONLY major professional league that does not have a minor league system. They get a FREE minor league system from the universities and benefit immensely from it.

If there was an alternative to college football for kids coming out of high school it would solve the compensation argument immediately. At the end of the day, people cheer for their universities. Not having the cream of the crop is not going to reduce interest or excitement all that much. Too much tradition and prestige.
 

MNfootballfan said:
Danny Kannell said something interesting on Twitter when comparing Minor League sports (he played Minor League Baseball) and D1 Football (FSU QB). I don't remember the exact wording he used, but basically there is no comparison. At FSU he had the best of the best at the time when it comes to facilities, training, rehab, great meals throughout the week, great hotels, etc. While playing Minor League Baseball he was on charter buses, eating fast food, staying at cheaper hotels.

The XFL could steal some guys, but why would you pass up being treated like a king at some of these schools vs. what you have in the XFL?
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I heard Brooks Bollinger talking about, back in the day, getting the call to step in for an XFL team after his NFL career was over, he said guys were at Dick's buying mouth guards and cleats because there just wasn't the type of infrastructure that the NFL has to support all that.
 

There is at least a 50/50 chance that this will be the end of the Big Ten as we have known it. The SEC, ACC and Big12 have enormous incentives to play some sort of season this Fall (and things seem to be quickly lining-up for that to happen).

This could be the single biggest shift of revenue and power that has ever happened in sports.
 

Goldmember said:
There is at least a 50/50 chance that this will be the end of the Big Ten as we have known it. The SEC, ACC and Big12 have enormous incentives to play some sort of season this Fall (and things seem to be quickly lining-up for that to happen).

This could be the single biggest shift of revenue and power that has ever happened in sports.
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How so? It's not like the Big Ten suddenly won't have Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State (as it stands now, I understand some folks believe they may look elsewhere, but for now let's say they don't). It's not like all of the alumni from those schools will suddenly stop watching sports, or stop going to games, or stop buying merchandise post covid. It's not like existing TV contracts that aren't up for renegotiation for the next few years will suddenly go away (if there was a clause that required the B1G to play, else break the contract, we would have heard about it by now).

Like, we lose one year of revenue, that isn't going to kill the conference.
 


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