Is This the End of College Football?

Donate To GopherHole
Taji34 said:
The hypothesis for that theory is that it could be as low as 20% (rather than the normal 60-70%). Let's math that out.

As was stated earlier, Sweden's population is 10.23 million, and they only have 84,294 positive tests. Which means,even if all of those people lived, they are only at 0.82% of their total population having antibodies and immunity. However, they've had 5,783 deaths, so that brings them down 0.76% of their population having immunity.

So even with the theoretical lower herd immunity statistic of 20% with antibodies, for them to reach that metric is means they about 25x additional people with antibodies, about 1,962,775. Now I don't know what their testing metrics are, but I find it hard to believe there are that many people in Sweden who had covid who haven't gotten tested.

The math just does not support the herd immunity argument in Sweden, regardless of that theory.
Click to expand...

When the results don’t match your hypothesis you need to reevaluate the validity of your assumptions.
 

Taji34 said:
The hypothesis for that theory is that it could be as low as 20% (rather than the normal 60-70%). Let's math that out.

As was stated earlier, Sweden's population is 10.23 million, and they only have 84,294 positive tests. Which means,even if all of those people lived, they are only at 0.82% of their total population having antibodies and immunity. However, they've had 5,783 deaths, so that brings them down 0.76% of their population having immunity.

So even with the theoretical lower herd immunity statistic of 20% with antibodies, for them to reach that metric is means they about 25x additional people with antibodies, about 1,962,775. Now I don't know what their testing metrics are, but I find it hard to believe there are that many people in Sweden who had covid who haven't gotten tested.

The math just does not support the herd immunity argument in Sweden, regardless of that theory.
Click to expand...

I get the math. The CDC stated a while back that actual infections in the U.S we’re likely 10x greater than confirmed cases due to lack of testing and those that are asymptomatic. The U.S has also tested at a higher rate than Sweden, so it is possible that their multiplier is larger than 10.

Edit: Also see the antibody test cited in the second link from my first response. That found that over 7% of Stockholm had antibodies and that was sometime around late April. So I don’t think your back of the envelope math is bulletproof.
 
Last edited:

markiemark09 said:
I get the math. The CDC stated a while back that actual infections in the U.S we’re likely 10x greater than confirmed cases due to lack of testing and those that are asymptomatic. The U.S has also tested at a higher rate than Sweden, so it is possible that their multiplier is larger than 10.

Edit: Also see the antibody test cited in the second link from my first response. That found that over 7% of Stockholm had antibodies and that was sometime around late April. So I don’t think your back of the envelope math is bulletproof.
Click to expand...
But I did your math already. 10x got you around 8-9% of the population. 20x would get you 16-18% of the population.

Still likely nowhere near herd immunity.

Again, right now it’s possible there is physically little active virus in the country. And if they’re harshly controlling their borders and forcing any new arrivals to quarantine, maybe they’ll succeed in controlling that. But they have to open up some time.
 

MplsGopher said:
But I did your math already. 10x got you around 8-9% of the population. 20x would get you 16-18% of the population.

Still likely nowhere near herd immunity.

Again, right now it’s possible there is physically little active virus in the country. And if they’re harshly controlling their borders and forcing any new arrivals to quarantine, maybe they’ll succeed in controlling that. But they have to open up some time.
Click to expand...

Haha, 20% is a lot different than 18%? Look, I’m not saying that 20% is for sure the herd immunity level, but it was suggested as a possibility (by an epidemiologist at Oxford). And Fauci has supported a study that had findings that may support that theory. That’s all I’m saying. You don’t know FOR SURE that it’s not 20%.

You had said that there is ZERO chance that they’ve reached herd immunity. My point is the chance is > 0%. What is that probability? Neither one of us knows. I personally wouldn’t bet that they have, but it is possible.
 
Last edited:

markiemark09 said:
Haha, 20% is a lot different than 18%? Look, I’m not saying that 20% is for sure the herd immunity level, but it was suggested as a possibility (by an epidemiologist at Oxford). And Fauci has supported a study that had findings that may support that theory. That’s all I’m saying. You don’t know FOR SURE that it’s not 20%.
Click to expand...
No one knows for sure if it’s 10%, 20%, 60%, or 90%.

Sweden isn’t evidence that The correct number is 20%, any more than me hitting -2 on one round means I should be on the PGA Tour.
 


MplsGopher said:
No one knows for sure if it’s 10%, 20%, 60%, or 90%.

Sweden isn’t evidence that The correct number is 20%, any more than me hitting -2 on one round means I should be on the PGA Tour.
Click to expand...

So you admit that your statement that there was “zero chance” was wrong?
 

Okay. I'm trying to follow this. Didn't Osterholm say it will take 60% - 70% infection to get to herd immunity? Are they saying that might not be the case?
 

nitramnaed said:
Okay. I'm trying to follow this. Didn't Osterholm say it will take 60% - 70% infection to get to herd immunity? Are they saying that might not be the case?
Click to expand...
There is a hypothesis that for covid the number could be closer to 20%, due to a combination of factors. Partly due (I believe) to some evidence that antibodies for other coronaviruses (since coronavirus is a category of viruses) can, in some cases, allow a person's immune system fight COVID more effectively.
 






So many unknowns. This is a different kind of infection. I hate that CFB is cancelled, but without knowing it is better to approach with caution. Such a bad bounce - Gophers would have had a magic season I think. Last To-Jo too, which is huge fun and a big deal for those of us who care about it.
 

And the Fauch chimes in: (during a conversation with Matthew McConaughey- could this get any more surreal?)

If the U.S. allowed the coronavirus to spread unchecked in an attempt to try to achieve so-called herd immunity, the “death toll would be enormous,” White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned on Thursday.

“If everyone contracted it, even with the relatively high percentage of people without symptoms ... a lot of people are going to die,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told actor Matthew McConaughey during a live discussion on Instagram.

Most scientists think 60% to 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated or have natural antibodies to achieve herd immunity, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, said last month.

The coronavirus, however, has infected less than 2% of the U.S. population and has already killed at least 166,970 people, according to Johns Hopkins University data, though the actual number of cases in the U.S. could be higher, according to a recent CDC study.
 



Pompous Elitist said:
Yes? You’re aware of how many former amateurs with CTE?
Click to expand...
I guess I’ll be the one to break it to you then. It’s the furthest thing from rare. CTE is extremely common, even among high school players.


QUOTE:
In the new study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers looked at the brains of 202 deceased people who had played football at various levels, from high school to the NFL. (The brains had been donated to a brain bank at Boston University for further study.) The researchers analyzed the brains for signs of CTE and also spoke to family members about the players’ histories.

They diagnosed CTE in 87% of the players. Among the 111 NFL players, 99% had CTE.


time.com

Brain Disease Is Common in Former Football Players: Study

The degenerative brain disease CTE may be common among American football players
time.com time.com

As someone with a TBI, protect your noggin. One blow is all it takes to alter the rest of your life substantially. And that’s an understatement.
 

nitramnaed said:
Okay. I'm trying to follow this. Didn't Osterholm say it will take 60% - 70% infection to get to herd immunity? Are they saying that might not be the case?
Click to expand...

Correct. Osterholm is but one voice in a sea of opinions.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
And the Fauch chimes in: (during a conversation with Matthew McConaughey- could this get any more surreal?)

If the U.S. allowed the coronavirus to spread unchecked in an attempt to try to achieve so-called herd immunity, the “death toll would be enormous,” White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned on Thursday.

“If everyone contracted it, even with the relatively high percentage of people without symptoms ... a lot of people are going to die,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told actor Matthew McConaughey during a live discussion on Instagram.

Most scientists think 60% to 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated or have natural antibodies to achieve herd immunity, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, said last month.

The coronavirus, however, has infected less than 2% of the U.S. population and has already killed at least 166,970 people, according to Johns Hopkins University data, though the actual number of cases in the U.S. could be higher, according to a recent CDC study.
Click to expand...

No offense to the very politically talented Fauci, but 3 months ago most figurehead officials were saying masks were a net negative. They have since slightly adjusted their messaging (/s) but are curiously still out to lunch on their messaging on technique and type, but hey they came half way around.

Three months ago dexamethasone and other steroids for COVID was not a commonly accepted part of the algorithm and rather thought to be overall harmful, Today? Saving thousands of lives.

Six months ago travel bans were said to have no effect on viral spread (and even worse xenophobic). Today Americans are banned from entering multiple continents.

Three months ago MN academics, health economists, and politicians told us even with a (bizarre) lockdown through May 31 there would be peak ICU use, deaths on or around the latter part of July 2020. Today the models haven’t been updated since May 13. Even the Gov seems to think they’re bull**** at this point.

It’s not really that hard for academics to say “we don’t know” but for some reason it is. They really don’t know for sure. Experience, trials, experimental results, retrospective epidemiology will eventually fill in some of the knowledge gaps.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
No offense to the very politically talented Fauci, but 3 months ago most figurehead officials were saying masks were a net negative. They have since slightly adjusted their messaging (/s) but are curiously still out to lunch on their messaging on technique and type, but hey they came half way around.

Three months ago dexamethasone and other steroids for COVID was not a commonly accepted part of the algorithm and rather thought to be overall harmful, Today? Saving thousands of lives.

Six months ago travel bans were said to have no effect on viral spread (and even worse xenophobic). Today Americans are banned from entering multiple continents.

Three months ago MN academics, health economists, and politicians told us even with a (bizarre) lockdown through May 31 there would be peak ICU use, deaths on or around the latter part of July 2020. Today the models haven’t been updated since May 13. Even the Gov seems to think they’re bull**** at this point.

It’s not really that hard for academics to say “we don’t know” but for some reason it is. They really don’t know for sure. Experience, trials, experimental results, retrospective epidemiology will eventually fill in some of the knowledge gaps.
Click to expand...
I wonder if this has to do with being thrust into the limelight a bit. Medical academics are used to the slow process of testing theories out until you have solid evidence to say one way or the other and by the time we see it, they've gone through that whole process so they do have the answers. Part of me wonders if they feel uncomfortable having so many people paying attention way earlier in the process than their used to and their afraid to say they don't know for fear of some sort of backlash or something? Not that what they did do around masks really helped but I just wonder if they were being pushed too much to give some sort of definitive answer when they didn't have enough evidence to say one way or the other.

It's kinda like academics in tech, they are super smart but sometimes they just miss the practical side of tech when it comes down to it.
 

MaroonShaft said:
I guess I’ll be the one to break it to you then. It’s the furthest thing from rare. CTE is extremely common, even among high school players.


QUOTE:
In the new study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers looked at the brains of 202 deceased people who had played football at various levels, from high school to the NFL. (The brains had been donated to a brain bank at Boston University for further study.) The researchers analyzed the brains for signs of CTE and also spoke to family members about the players’ histories.

They diagnosed CTE in 87% of the players. Among the 111 NFL players, 99% had CTE.


time.com

Brain Disease Is Common in Former Football Players: Study

The degenerative brain disease CTE may be common among American football players
time.com time.com

As someone with a TBI, protect your noggin. One blow is all it takes to alter the rest of your life substantially. And that’s an understatement.
Click to expand...

99% of NFL players had CTE. But that may have been a biased sample as players dealing with CTE issues may have been more likely to have chosen to donate their brain. If you are a former football player with no symptoms, you may be less likely to have chosen to donate.
 

swelna said:
I wonder if this has to do with being thrust into the limelight a bit. Medical academics are used to the slow process of testing theories out until you have solid evidence to say one way or the other and by the time we see it, they've gone through that whole process so they do have the answers. Part of me wonders if they feel uncomfortable having so many people paying attention way earlier in the process than their used to and their afraid to say they don't know for fear of some sort of backlash or something? Not that what they did do around masks really helped but I just wonder if they were being pushed too much to give some sort of definitive answer when they didn't have enough evidence to say one way or the other.

It's kinda like academics in tech, they are super smart but sometimes they just miss the practical side of tech when it comes down to it.
Click to expand...

Well, academics always give nuanced explanations in the discussion part of their papers but the general media has ignored those for years. There are probably several mechanisms afoot for what’s happened this year. It’s pretty sad.
 

MaroonShaft said:
I guess I’ll be the one to break it to you then. It’s the furthest thing from rare. CTE is extremely common, even among high school players.


QUOTE:
In the new study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers looked at the brains of 202 deceased people who had played football at various levels, from high school to the NFL. (The brains had been donated to a brain bank at Boston University for further study.) The researchers analyzed the brains for signs of CTE and also spoke to family members about the players’ histories.

They diagnosed CTE in 87% of the players. Among the 111 NFL players, 99% had CTE.


time.com

Brain Disease Is Common in Former Football Players: Study

The degenerative brain disease CTE may be common among American football players
time.com time.com

As someone with a TBI, protect your noggin. One blow is all it takes to alter the rest of your life substantially. And that’s an understatement.
Click to expand...

Is it unusual for former pros with severe symptoms of neurodegenerative disease CTE to be found to have evidence of neurodegenerative disease in their donated brains (from concerned family)? This was as far from a random sample as there can be.

Yes, CTE is very rare in former high school and college athletes. It’s less rare in pros and those with higher numbers of concussions. That’s why protocols have changed.

Find me some incidence numbers or please be quiet on this topic.
 

Taji34 said:
I never said the source had to be in the US. I would accept a foreign study or accredited scientific body claiming Sweden has heard immunity.

Unless, *gasps*, it's the whole world trying to pull the wool over our eyes and you are one of the few who sees through it! Oh the humanity!
Click to expand...

Actually, the fact that a large percentage asymptomatic infections means that herd immunity is achieved at a much lower percentage of the population infected. Add the large percentage of people with natural immunity ( the majority of children). @Taji34 why is your generation so dependent on scientific authorities? Learn to read a graph, think critically.
 

GoldenRodents said:
Actually, the fact that a large percentage asymptomatic infections means that herd immunity is achieved at a much lower percentage of the population infected. Add the large percentage of people with natural immunity ( the majority of children). @Taji34 why is your generation so dependent on scientific authorities? Learn to read a graph, think critically.
Click to expand...
Because they are the ones who went to school and studied these things? Why is it bad to defer to experts? Do you not listen to your doctor? Should college students not listen to their professors? Should I not listen to the vet when they tell me what's wrong with my dog? News flash, reading stuff on the internet doesn't make you an expert, wasn't it your generation that told mine that not everything we read online was true? Or does that only apply when we disagree with you?

I also don't know why you think I can't read a graph? I never claimed Sweden didn't have a drop in cases and deaths, they quite obviously did I don't dispute that. I just think it's not due to herd immunity, and that come the next few months they will have another spike. If that doesn't happen I will happily eat my words and say you were right. Can you say the same if the opposite happens? Do you have the humility to admit when you're wrong, or do you just stop talking and hope no one calls you out?

Also is it wrong for me to ask you to provide more evidence for your claims? Like honestly, if I am going to critically think about something I want all the evidence. I am not just going to accept the claims of a random user online as true without evidence (and again, a drop in cases is not evidence of herd immunity as many factors can contribute to a drop in cases just like any illness), because that is literally the opposite of the "critical thinking" you hold so high on a pedestal.

Oh, and a tip from "my generation" to yours: when you quote someone's post online, you don't need to tag them in your response as well since it's already clear your reply is directed at them. Kinda shows your age if I'm being honest.
 

Re: immunity. There's a bit of a kerfuffle over statements by the CDC on immunity. At first, it appeared the CDC was saying that people who have covid are immune for three months. But now, the CDC is back-tracking on that front, stating that people who have covid could potentially be re-infected within that three month window.

the immunity issue is still very unsettled.
 

Dr Seheult, a practicing multi sub-specialty physician here in SoCal, with an unbiased overview of the immunity question and peripheral issues, eg masks and loading dose. Try to have an open mind...



 
Last edited:

Medical doctors are not scientists. It is a fallacy to present the opinion of a medical doctor on a scientific topic as if they are a scientific expert.

Exactly the same as if you presented the opinion of an electrical engineer that designs circuit boards for a living as if they were an expert in quantum mechanics. Same fallacy
 

MplsGopher said:
Medical doctors are not scientists. It is a fallacy to present the opinion of a medical doctor on a scientific topic as if they are a scientific expert.

Exactly the same as if you presented the opinion of an electrical engineer that designs circuit boards for a living as if they were an expert in quantum mechanics. Same fallacy
Click to expand...

Totally the same.

What do you say, then, about the opinions of the numerous PhD’s that wrote all the papers he’s referencing?

I have to say, you’ve given me a few good guffaws this week. Thanks, you’re on your game.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Re: immunity. There's a bit of a kerfuffle over statements by the CDC on immunity. At first, it appeared the CDC was saying that people who have covid are immune for three months. But now, the CDC is back-tracking on that front, stating that people who have covid could potentially be re-infected within that three month window.

the immunity issue is still very unsettled.
Click to expand...

If it was really happening, we'd be seeing headlines about it every day from the Panic Porn Purveyors
 

Pompous Elitist said:
No offense to the very politically talented Fauci, but 3 months ago most figurehead officials were saying masks were a net negative. They have since slightly adjusted their messaging (/s) but are curiously still out to lunch on their messaging on technique and type, but hey they came half way around.

Three months ago dexamethasone and other steroids for COVID was not a commonly accepted part of the algorithm and rather thought to be overall harmful, Today? Saving thousands of lives.

Six months ago travel bans were said to have no effect on viral spread (and even worse xenophobic). Today Americans are banned from entering multiple continents.

Three months ago MN academics, health economists, and politicians told us even with a (bizarre) lockdown through May 31 there would be peak ICU use, deaths on or around the latter part of July 2020. Today the models haven’t been updated since May 13. Even the Gov seems to think they’re bull**** at this point.

It’s not really that hard for academics to say “we don’t know” but for some reason it is. They really don’t know for sure. Experience, trials, experimental results, retrospective epidemiology will eventually fill in some of the knowledge gaps.
Click to expand...
I have seen many experts and academics say with this virus they don't know and are learning as things evolve. The realization of the level of asymptomatic carriers was one of those moments.

I (and others out here) can confirm there absolutely was a PPE shortage in the early stages...especially masks and gloves.
 

PPE is one thing .... but Costco still doesn't have liquid hand soap or disinfecting wipes in stock! Still!
 

PMWinSTP said:
I have seen many experts and academics say with this virus they don't know and are learning as things evolve. The realization of the level of asymptomatic carriers was one of those moments.

I (and others out here) can confirm there absolutely was a PPE shortage in the early stages...especially masks and gloves.
Click to expand...

Yes, professionals acknowledge their knowledge gaps. It’s the masses that take thing like current immunology dogma or an isolated, small n, non-repeated, egregiously sloppy scientific paper as 100% incontrovertible fact and savage anyone that questions it.

The fact is, the more studied you are in something particularly the hard sciences and applied sciences the more you realize the limits of our understanding.

PPE is still in short supply.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom