Is it fair that Notre Dame is independent?

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Ope3 said:
Are we sure if Florida St & Notre Dame would be more competitive programs in the Big 10?

Granted different landscape, but Penn St had won 2 National Titles in the decade before joining the Big 10 and none since. They were undefeated in 1994 but outvoted by Nebraska.

Speaking of Nebraska, pretty clear they have been less competitive since joining the Big 10. It may have happened anyway.

Going forward no idea what the impact would be with an 18 Team Big 10 now, much less a potential expanded conference going forward, NIL and Transfer Portal, I'm just referencing recent history.
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Expansion is proof a super league wouldn’t work out the way people think they do.
In a game with no ties every game has a loser.
You can’t keep adding big brands and everyone stay a winner
 

Wally said:
They should play in a conference if they want to participate in the CFP.
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I feel like them not being in a conference makes everything harder for them. They could easily join the ACC and they would literally make the playoffs every single year for the foreseeable future. likely win the conference the next 10 years and have a first round bye every season. Their independent schedule is harder than an ACC schedule (not comparing it to a Big Ten schedule). however, being a huge Gopher and Irish fan, I think Notre Dame would have went undefeated this season with the Gophers schedule. At least all the way to the BIG Championship. Even with a loss they would be in the same exact spot as they are in now. no first round bye and fought to get the championship.
 

IrishGoph55 said:
I feel like them not being in a conference makes everything harder for them. They could easily join the ACC and they would literally make the playoffs every single year for the foreseeable future. likely win the conference the next 10 years and have a first round bye every season. Their independent schedule is harder than an ACC schedule (not comparing it to a Big Ten schedule). however, being a huge Gopher and Irish fan, I think Notre Dame would have went undefeated this season with the Gophers schedule. At least all the way to the BIG Championship. Even with a loss they would be in the same exact spot as they are in now. no first round bye and fought to get the championship.
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Maryland, a charter member of the ACC at its founding in the 1950’s, paid between $25 and 33,000,000 to leave the ACC!!

And they accepted a greatly reduced payout over a period of a number of years in order to join the B1G. WOW… what a statement (indictment?!) on the ACC.

Not sure what the appeal would be for Notre Dame to full-fledge join the ACC?

There might be a few attractive pieces the B1G is looking thru in what’s left of the ACC.

North Carolina would be at the top of the list, but they want to bring along Duke, which would kill the deal.

Kicking the tires with Georgia Tech and Virginia… great schools, attractive geographies in a growing part of the USA, etc. But would they grow each current B1G member’s share, like ND and FSU would?

After ND and FSU come on board, though, the B1G expansion might conclude at 20 teams??
 

dinkything said:
Maryland, a charter member of the ACC at its founding in the 1950’s, paid between $25 and 33,000,000 to leave the ACC!!

And they accepted a greatly reduced payout over a period of a number of years in order to join the B1G. WOW… what a statement (indictment?!) on the ACC.

Not sure what the appeal would be for Notre Dame to full-fledge join the ACC?

There might be a few attractive pieces the B1G is looking thru in what’s left of the ACC.

North Carolina would be at the top of the list, but they want to bring along Duke, which would kill the deal.

Kicking the tires with Georgia Tech and Virginia… great schools, attractive geographies in a growing part of the USA, etc. But would they grow each current B1G member’s share, like ND and FSU would?

After ND and FSU come on board, though, the B1G expansion might conclude at 20 teams??
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I see no appeal in joining the ACC. But when people constantly say 'it's unfair that they don't play in a conference or a conference championship'. My argument would be that they would easily be able to join the ACC and make the playoff literally every single year. I believe the route they are going now as an independent is a lot tougher than the route i mentioned above. Obviously they make a ton more $$$ as well.
 

IrishGoph55 said:
I see no appeal in joining the ACC. But when people constantly say 'it's unfair that they don't play in a conference or a conference championship'. My argument would be that they would easily be able to join the ACC and make the playoff literally every single year. I believe the route they are going now as an independent is a lot tougher than the route i mentioned above. Obviously they make a ton more $$$ as well.
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You make a good point, although I anticipate we will see the CFP ground rules change, as soon as this coming year. Who gets in? Who doesn’t? How many teams? Who gets a bye? Should there be any byes? Etc.
 


dinkything said:
You make a good point, although I anticipate we will see the CFP ground rules change, as soon as this coming year. Who gets in? Who doesn’t? How many teams? Who gets a bye? Should there be any byes? Etc.
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Ya they got to do something. Just make it the top 12 ranked teams regardless of conference. Or make the committee choose the 12 teams prior to the Conference championship. The conference championship hardly mattered anyway, Penn State, Texas, and SMU still got in after losing, didnt even drop at all in rankings really. idk. makes my brain hurt. but the current format for sure needs to change a bit.
 

If the Big Ten expands again (in the nearish future).....I still think it's Notre Dame and another western U.S. team. I think Colorado would make a lot of sense.
 

stocker08 said:
If the Big Ten expands again (in the nearish future).....I still think it's Notre Dame and another western U.S. team. I think Colorado would make a lot of sense.
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You could be correct, but I am hearing that the B1G is finished expanding out west
 

dinkything said:
You could be correct, but I am hearing that the B1G is finished expanding out west
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I'm not saying you're wrong....but you haven't even hinted where you get your info from.
 



dinkything said:
Then Someone better hurry up and alert the B1G University presidents! And fast!!!!
Because they have been voting Florida State along…
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Given where college football is now, it is almost laughable that the conference is going to make a decision on an AAU purity test. It is all about the money. The only question that will matter is: "Can you increase the media rights money by including them?"
 

While Notre Dame gets to keep the $20 million all to itself while Ohio State has to split it with its B1G cohorts, Notre Dame is not getting a cut of the revenue from:

The Citrus Bowl
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Rate Bowl
Sun Bowl
ReliaQuest Bowl
Pinstripe Bowl
Music City Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl

Ohio State does.

While I’m guessing they’d be better off keeping all $20 million from the CFP, it’s not like they’re doing ALL the heavy lifting. They’ll get their cut from those bowls above as well as from the CFP revenue brought in by Oregon, Penn State and Indiana.
 


dinkything said:
Would you still take any/all of the schools you mentioned above if it meant that the Gophers - and every other B1G institution - would receive a smaller annual payout?

Because that is what would happen
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I'm not advocating expansion just for the sake of expansion.

I don't think the Big Ten is interested in that either.


If your point is that doubling up in the Bay Area would get more money, I don't think that's right.
 



SeaBee_Gopher said:
My original post has devolved into a lot of expansion talk which I always find interesting, but I currently am very happy with the size of the B1G and don't see a lot of value in expanding further in the near term. We have the majority of the largest TV markets in the US tied up.

If we take on Florida State, do we kick the bees nest of the SEC by going into what they consider their backyard? It seems like we've currently agreed on a ceasefire with the SEC. They expanded and we responded. Neither of us has teams in the same state. Both conferences are flush with cash and power. The B1G has closed the gap on the SEC in terms of competitiveness on the field.

I'm good with where we are. Why help Florida State or Notre Dame become more competitive? There are positives as well as negatives associated with taking these teams on. Our recent addition of the best programs in the west was high reward, low risk. This does not feel the same.
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North Carolina and Virginia might be schools that could go either way, if/when they decide they might want to leave the ACC once that contract is up in some years from now (not any time soon).
 

GopherGrit said:
I'm not advocating expansion just for the sake of expansion.

I don't think the Big Ten is interested in that either.


If your point is that doubling up in the Bay Area would get more money, I don't think that's right.
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The B1G has looked out west…. at Arizona, but not ASU… the two Bay Area teams (neither moves the dial much at all alone, and certainly not together)… Utah, Colorado, and Kansas.

As mentioned earlier, the B1G appears ‘done’ looking out west, and are now trying to finalize ND and FSU.

We’ll see if there is anything left in the SE part of the country. The B1G may be done there, too.


Remember… it’s not just about increasing the size of the pie. It’s also about increasing the value of everyone’s annual share, so that narrows things down in a hurry.
 

GopherGrit said:
North Carolina and Virginia might be schools that could go either way, if/when they decide they might want to leave the ACC once that contract is up in some years from now (not any time soon).
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Both will be gone from the ACC shortly… it’s just a matter of where they land. UNC has more leverage.
 

dinkything said:
The B1G has looked out west…. at Arizona, but not ASU… the two Bay Area teams (neither moves the dial much at all alone, and certainly not together)… Utah, Colorado, and Kansas.

As mentioned earlier, the B1G appears ‘done’ looking out west, and are now trying to finalize ND and FSU.

We’ll see if there is anything left in the SE part of the country. The B1G may be done there, too.


Remember… it’s not just about increasing the size of the pie. It’s also about increasing the value of everyone’s annual share, so that narrows things down in a hurry.
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You clearly don't get the media and academic benefit of the Bay area schools.
 


dinkything said:
The B1G has looked out west…. at Arizona, but not ASU… the two Bay Area teams (neither moves the dial much at all alone, and certainly not together)… Utah, Colorado, and Kansas.

As mentioned earlier, the B1G appears ‘done’ looking out west, and are now trying to finalize ND and FSU.

We’ll see if there is anything left in the SE part of the country. The B1G may be done there, too.


Remember… it’s not just about increasing the size of the pie. It’s also about increasing the value of everyone’s annual share, so that narrows things down in a hurry.
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Correct.
I think they can expand by taking Two big time programs. I doubt they go to 20 without one of the following three:
Notre dame
Texas A&M
Texas

Two of those are super doubtful for obvious reasons. Without one of those big brands I’m not sure the pie grows that much to increase to take another slice.

If the payouts in 2028 are going to be 80 million per school…the new school needs to bring in an additional 80 million to break even. And if they’re paired with a brand that doesn’t…then the first school needs to make up the second school.


if they’re payouts in 2030 are 100 million per school as speculated. Do Notre dame and Florida state make you and extra 200 million? Because you need that to break even.
To move the 100 million per school to 110 million per school…the two additions would have to bring in 400 million in extra revenue….
Im not even sure Notre dame and Texas together would be worth that much.

That’s why I think we are more likely to see a large expansion than a small one.
Expand by 6 or 10 teams and play 12 conference games.

Keeping in mind markets, football programs, and the academic interests of the conference
The candidates:
Notre Dame
Poached SEC team - from what I’ve read Texas A&M might be the one with interest because they’re pissed about Texas
A Florida school - either FSU or Miami
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia tech
Arizona or ASU
Utah
Colorado
Kansas - probably not IMO


Second tier - fit some of the things but not all of the things
Cal - market already owned
Stanford - market already owned
South Florida - bad football program
Pitt - market already owned by PSU
Buffalo - bad at football and possibly already in Buffalo market but I’m not sure


Third tier - AAU but private
Tier 3a
Syracuse
Duke
Tier 3b - AAU but private and bad at football
Tulane
Rice
 



dinkything said:
Yes
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You think adding 14 games is 200 million extra dollars?
To raise the revenue by 10 million per school you need 400 million.

Is a notre dame game worth 14 million to a network?
28 million per game?

The notre Dame TV contract right now doesn’t think so.

Can’t add one school without changing number of conference games because 19*9 is an odd number
 

Some guy said:
You think adding 14 games is 200 million extra dollars?
To raise the revenue by 10 million per school you need 400 million.

Is a notre dame game worth 14 million to a network?
28 million per game?

The notre Dame TV contract right now doesn’t think so.

Can’t add one school without changing number of conference games because 19*9 is an odd number
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In your earlier post, you used the term ‘if’ as a hypothetical… in terms of each B1G team making $100 million in 2030. I responded to your hypothetical.

No matter the year - or the total dollar figure - the B1G and their media partners have determined ND and FSU will bring in much more money than most current members, and thus increase the size of the pie in a way that would more than ‘cover’ their individual B1G payout.
The metrics being used are quite specific, so the B1G knows who the real producers are, both now and for the foreseeable future.
 

Some guy said:
You think adding 14 games is 200 million extra dollars?
To raise the revenue by 10 million per school you need 400 million.

Is a notre dame game worth 14 million to a network?
28 million per game?

The notre Dame TV contract right now doesn’t think so.

Can’t add one school without changing number of conference games because 19*9 is an odd number
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The B1G media contract has an escalator amount specifically for the Irish and language about increases for other expansion.
 

Some guy said:
You think adding 14 games is 200 million extra dollars?
To raise the revenue by 10 million per school you need 400 million.

Is a notre dame game worth 14 million to a network?
28 million per game?

The notre Dame TV contract right now doesn’t think so.

Can’t add one school without changing number of conference games because 19*9 is an odd number
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I do think some folks underestimate the academic https://btaa.org/ and location (market) part of the equation. Ability to pull $$ in to expand research is a pretty big piece of the puzzle. Yes, Nebraska is the outlier. Nebby was a miss no doubt. Oregon and U of WA were a package deal. Oregon football has that national brand thing, but I also said at the time that it was not really a fit by any of the other criteria. Rutgers brought in the NY market, Maryland the DC market. Irish is a national brand and has cachet.

Agree that FSU brings nothing in the way of criteria to the B1G.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I do think some folks underestimate the academic https://btaa.org/ and location (market) part of the equation. Ability to pull $$ in to expand research is a pretty big piece of the puzzle. Yes, Nebraska is the outlier. Nebby was a miss no doubt. Oregon and U of WA were a package deal. Oregon football has that national brand thing, but I also said at the time that it was not really a fit by any of the other criteria. Rutgers brought in the NY market, Maryland the DC market. Irish is a national brand and has cachet.

Agree that FSU brings nothing in the way of criteria to the B1G.
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I just think the big ten is smart enough not to expand if it’s going to cost them money as individual schools
 

PMWinSTP said:
The B1G media contract has an escalator amount specifically for the Irish and language about increases for other expansion.
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How much?
The escalator predates the finalization of the current contract. Would be interesting to know how much it is
 

dinkything said:
The B1G has looked out west…. at Arizona, but not ASU… the two Bay Area teams (neither moves the dial much at all alone, and certainly not together)… Utah, Colorado, and Kansas.

As mentioned earlier, the B1G appears ‘done’ looking out west, and are now trying to finalize ND and FSU.

We’ll see if there is anything left in the SE part of the country. The B1G may be done there, too.


Remember… it’s not just about increasing the size of the pie. It’s also about increasing the value of everyone’s annual share, so that narrows things down in a hurry.
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dinkything said:
Both will be gone from the ACC shortly… it’s just a matter of where they land. UNC has more leverage.
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Bolded: just wondering how you are able to state these so confidently? Appreciate any links to articles, Tweets, other message boards. Thank you!

Agree 100% that (further) expansion for the Big Ten is about getting a bigger TV contract.
 



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