In all of these big boy games today, I've noticed

[Gophergrandpa]

What do you think is the right mix of passing and running is for the Gophers?

I don't really know the right mix, or if there is an actual right mix. I expect that PJ and Ciarocca will move back to the 60/40 run/pass ratio they have favored during their join tenure. At WMU and at the U under Ciarocca, PJ averaged 40% pass and 60% run. The passing game, at 40%, produced more yardage, generally, than the running game (more explosive plays, usually). Under Sanford, our mix has been (before Indiana and WI games this year) roughly 70% run, 30% pass. Part of this, I believe, was a strategic decision to run fewer plays and burn up more clock (as running plays don't stop the clock generally). The difference is significant in terms of: (1) fewer plays run per game; (2) greater predictability of offense; (3) fewer explosive plays; (4) fewer "shots" at the end zone on man coverage fade routes; (5) greater wear and tear on a RB who has to serve as a "bell cow"; (6) less developed communication between QB and receivers, etc. The 70% running rate also means that we are often choosing to run into stacked boxes rather than pass, a very non-Ciarocca thing.

 

[FormerFatOL]

It seems wierd but there are no Big 12 teams in the top 30 in passing attempts this year. I do see a bunch of SEC teams, Big Ten teams. Leach of course is tops down at Bulldog headquarters.

College Football Stats - College FB Team Pass Attempts per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football pass attempts per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Great data.

This thread is funny. In the pass attempt averages, 3 of the 4 CFP teams are #92, #99 and #108.

Yeah, an effective passing game is needed to complement and potentially bail out the running game when needed (see the Gopher 2019 offense that passed for more yards than it ran) but running is still where it's at.

 

[stocker08]

Great data.

This thread is funny. In the pass attempt averages, 3 of the 4 CFP teams are #92, #99 and #108.

Yeah, an effective passing game is needed to complement and potentially bail out the running game when needed (see the Gopher 2019 offense that passed for more yards than it ran) but running is still where it's at.

True. But attempts don't tell the whole story. Those same teams are #19, #27, and #47 in passing yards per game. Better players = more explosive plays.

 

[Iceland12]

Great data.

This thread is funny. In the pass attempt averages, 3 of the 4 CFP teams are #92, #99 and #108.

Yeah, an effective passing game is needed to complement and potentially bail out the running game when needed (see the Gopher 2019 offense that passed for more yards than it ran) but running is still where it's at.

True, but a little deceptive. If you have a lot more talent on your side of the ball, which those schools usually do, over a 12 game schedule, you should be able to dominate at the line and you have talented RBs to run at them.

You're very seldom behind so you don't have to throw it around to get back in the game either.

Yesterday when they were playing other talented teams, 3 of those 4 teams threw the ball more than they ran it. The exception was Michigan. They had the game shown-up early and they still only ran the ball 6 more times than they threw it.

 

[FormerFatOL]

True, but a little deceptive. If you have a lot more talent on your side of the ball, which those schools usually do, over a 12 game schedule, you should be able to dominate at the line and you have talented RBs to run at them.

You're very seldom behind so you don't have to throw it around to get back in the game either.

Yesterday when they were playing other talented teams, 3 of those 4 teams threw the ball more than they ran it. The exception was Michigan. They had the game shown-up early and they still only ran the ball 6 more times than they threw it.

No doubt a complementary passing game is needed for balance and ability to exploit defensive tendencies to win at a high level. However, I disagree with the premise that modern NCAA football teams need to be "passing" teams to win...because it's not true.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Great data.

This thread is funny. In the pass attempt averages, 3 of the 4 CFP teams are #92, #99 and #108.

Yeah, an effective passing game is needed to complement and potentially bail out the running game when needed (see the Gopher 2019 offense that passed for more yards than it ran) but running is still where it's at.

In 2021, Alabama passed on 50.7% of its plays and ran on 49.3% of plays. It ran 959 plays; pass yardage 4523, run yardage 2270. All other things being equal, more plays equal more yardage.
Cincinnati passed on 45.7% of plays, ran on 54.3%. It ran only 805 plays; pass yardage 3233, run yardage 2561.
Georgia passed on 42.2% of plays, ran on 57.8%. It ran 830 plays; pass yardage 3223; run yardage 2700.
Michigan passed on 39.6% of plays, ran on 60.4%. It ran 907 plays; pass yardage 2965; run yardage 2910.
In terms of total yardage: Alabama--6793; Cincinnati--5933; Georgia--5923; Michigan--5930.
.....
In contrast, Minnesota passed on 30.7% of plays, ran on 69.3%. Our "slow-down" offense ran only 795 plays; pass yardage 1997; run yardage 2326. Total yardage--4323.
.....
Georgia and Michigan are considered run dominant teams, yet pass on roughly 42% and 40% of plays respectively (as PJ's team did under Ciarocca). Successful teams generally pass in the 40-45% range, because passing is favored by the rules, produces more explosive plays, advances by PI calls, and generally produces more yardage in absolute terms than the running game. A good mix of passing and running also makes an offense less predictable and more difficult to defend. Teams that run 70% of the time generally aren't found among the upper echelons (unless they have a once-in-a-generation OL!).

I suspect that the Sanford 70/30 years will end up as an aberration for PJ, and that in 2022 we will return to at least 40% passing (PJ's historic norm), which will still leave us a very run dominant team (like Michigan), but should add back the additional plays and yardage we will need to succeed regularly in the West.

If you doubt that the difference between 30% and 40% passing is significant, consider Michigan at 40% and Alabama at 51% passing: one is considered very run dominant, the other is considered to be an aerial attack. 10% is big.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Great data.

This thread is funny. In the pass attempt averages, 3 of the 4 CFP teams are #92, #99 and #108.

Yeah, an effective passing game is needed to complement and potentially bail out the running game when needed (see the Gopher 2019 offense that passed for more yards than it ran) but running is still where it's at.

MN was severely pass averse, and would have averaged even less than its 20 per game if it weren’t trying to catch up in the fourth quarter in some losses.

The 3 teams you mentioned all passed the ball 6-8 times more per game than MN. Given that MN with its slower pace will average around 70 plays per game asking for 28 passes per game puts them right at 40% passing, 60% running. Saban passed 60% of the time and shredded the supposedly best defense in America.

YMMV but IMO the 2021 MN offense was absolutely bonkers.