How to measure success

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howeda7

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Since we've been told by some we can't care about wins this year, and this is at least somewhat true, how do we measure progress for this team? The "eye test" is too vague/subjective.

For non-Weakling Wednesday games (14 of the 18 remaining B1G games), I will look for the following:

-In at least 7 of the 14 be within 2 possessions (6 points) at some point in the last 16 minutes of the game. If you do this, you played a competitive game, IMO. So far we are 0/6 doing this our losses. That is not acceptable.

-In at least 4 of the above games, be within one possession (3 points) at some point in the last 5 minutes of the game. This makes it a true coin flip.

-Win at least one of these games.

For the Weakling Wednesday games: (Nebraska x 2, Northwestern, Penn State)

-Meet the first criteria on all 4

-Meet the second criteria on 3/4

-Win at least one of these games.

Overall:

Go at least 10-10 in making games competitive. Currently 0-2. Last year's team went ~12-8 in hitting this mark.

Go at least 7-13 in making games a coin flip. Last year's team went ~8-12 in hitting this mark.

Win at least 2 B1G games.
 
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howeda7 said:
Since we've been told by some we can't care about wins this year, and this is at least somewhat true, how do we measure progress for this team? The "eye test" is too vague/subjective.

For non-Weakling Wednesday games (14 of the 18 remaining B1G games), I will look for the following:

-In at least 7 of the 14 be within 2 possessions (6 points) at some point in the last 16 minutes of the game. If you do this, you played a competitive game, IMO. So far we are 0/6 doing this our losses. That is not acceptable.

-In at least 4 of the above games, be within one possession (3 points) at some point in the last 5 minutes of the game. This makes it a true coin flip.

-Win at least one of these games.

For the Weakling Wednesday games: (Nebraska x 2, Northwestern, Penn State)

-Meet the first criteria on all 4

-Meet the second criteria on 3/4

-Win at least one of these games.
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I like posts that realize we're trying for a rebuild and that try to monitor the progress.

Yes, we can monitor the progress...and we can even rip the Coach & AD if goals aren't being met.

With a new coach, I look at recruiting. I'd rather have recruiting than transfers. I don't want transfers until we have a base of recruits coming up as juniors & sophomores.

Ben's first recruits are freshmen now...and so far I've seen 3 of them showing potential. A few 10 (even 20) point games here & there. I'm hoping for some competitive Big Ten play from them in the last 5 games of the season.

And recruiting improved in the next class.
 


MNJay said:
I like posts that realize we're trying for a rebuild and that try to monitor the progress.

Yes, we can monitor the progress...and we can even rip the Coach & AD if goals aren't being met.

With a new coach, I look at recruiting. I'd rather have recruiting than transfers. I don't want transfers until we have a base of recruits coming up as juniors & sophomores.

Ben's first recruits are freshmen now...and so far I've seen 3 of them showing potential. A few 10 (even 20) point games here & there. I'm hoping for some competitive Big Ten play from them in the last 5 games of the season.

And recruiting improved in the next class.
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He's shown he can recruit. He's not really shown he can coach (and I blame Thorson on this as well especially for the defense.) We need to see on-court progress as well or the recruiting won't save you. If we go 0-20 and get blown out in 17 of them, "wait til you see next year's recruits" will become completely hollow.
 

howeda7 said:
He's shown he can recruit. He's not really shown he can coach (and I blame Thorson on this as well especially for the defense.) We need to see on-court progress as well or the recruiting won't save you. If we go 0-20 and get blown out in 17 of them, "wait til you see next year's recruits" will become completely hollow.
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There's a bit of a conflict when you have upperclassmen transfers with professional hopes playing with freshmen. It was easier keeping them all on the same page last year...when they were all upperclassmen transfers.

This should smooth out once our freshmen & recruits become juniors & sophomores.
 


A lot can change between now and March, I know, but I'll be very surprised if Penn State is one of the Weakling Wednesday participants this season. Solid team, well coached and a potential All-American at PG in Pickett. At this point I'd probably peg Maryland or Iowa for the other Weakling Wednesday spot.
 

For me a lot of this roster is going to be back next year so I would like us to be playing competitive big ten basketball to show that this group can compete next year. Would like to best our four conference win mark last year as well. Ben's not going to get fired for on court performance, but if we are not competitive this year and next year is more of the same, it's going to be difficult to keep Ben. You simply cannot be bad three years in a row, you can buy time for your first two years by recruiting well and Ben has done a good job with high school recruiting. I also think he has brought in talented transfers, it's just last year he didn't have enough and this year they don't fit well together and unfortunately roster building and management is the biggest part of the job. Need to be able to acquire, develop and deploy at this level. Basketball can turn around year to year these days. I'll be looking to see if Ben and staff can adjust to put guys in a position to be successful
 

I would define success this year (from here on) in two ways:

In the expected number of wins thread, we had 70 voters that on average projected 2.585 wins. When I looked at the numbers on ESPN for each of the remaining 18 games, the expected number of wins was 2.776 wins. Exceed that number by a couple. If we believe experience is our biggest weakness at this point and we are playing more freshman than anybody else in conference, we should be able to see progress by the end of the year. Exceed the low expectations that you have set via your play through December.

Secondly, retain the vast majority of your players in April. If four/five players transfer out this year, then you haven't accomplished anything. If we want to advocate for a long view with this team, Ben Johnson needs to be able to sell the vision to his own players. If he hasn't done that, then he would have a hard time convincing many of his detractors, including me.
 

MNJay said:
There's a bit of a conflict when you have upperclassmen transfers with professional hopes playing with freshmen. It was easier keeping them all on the same page last year...when they were all upperclassmen transfers.

This should smooth out once our freshmen & recruits become juniors & sophomores.
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Disagree the problem is we are trying to put a square peg in a round hole with guys like Battle and Garcia and we don't have the guard depth quantity or quality right now to fix it
 




I’d like to see us become good at at least one facet of the game. It’s hard to be excited about the team when there isn’t a single thing they do well.
 

I will be flat out F'ing stunned if Penn State is a bottom 4 BIG10 team. To be honest not sure they were reasonably designated as one of the weakling 4.
 

MUgopher32 said:
I will be flat out F'ing stunned if Penn State is a bottom 4 BIG10 team. To be honest not sure they were reasonably designated as one of the weakling 4.
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Perhaps not. They have traditionally been, and they're one of the 4 teams we beat last year. Not a hill I care to die on, I was just segregating the games we are more likely to win from the rest of them.
 



From a metrics/analytics standpoint, I’d like to see our +/- improve out of half time relative to the rest of the game. Can CBJ make adjustments and communicate them to the team?

From an intangible standpoint, I’d like to start seeing the young players add more to their games based on how the defenses are defending. This is tough because I don’t know where each of the freshman are especially dangerous - but for gabe, the freshman adjustment was the pump fake and sidestep. Ihnen added a pump and pull up jumper late sophomore season after he started seeing minutes. Oturu learned to gather without dribbling late
Freshman year. If you watch enough Wisconsin basketball you’ll see a freshman make a veteran move for the first time in January, but it will looked polished and well practiced. This happens particularly after that player’s strengths are scouted by big ten opponents.

For Payne, he needs to add the patience to his power game without putting the ball on the ground to gather momentum. Can’t say what the others need to do better specifically since I’m not sure what they are being asked to do within the offense.
 

MonikerSchmoniker45 said:
I measure success on a scale of 1-St. Thomas.
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I know you're in the crowd that throws a hissy fit at mentions of St. Thomas, but if you wanted to shoehorn them into the scale, it'd be more like this:

(1) Completely Unaccetpable --> (2) St. Thomas level --> (5) Acceptable -->(10)

I know this crowd needs to pretend like the St. Thomas discussion is something it isn't to save their wounded feelings.

But the idea is NOT that St. Thomas is good. It's that we are SO TERRIBLE that we are worse than St. Thomas.

I know this will be lost on you, but try re-reading it a few times so you stop f'n it up so often.
 

MNJay said:
I like posts that realize we're trying for a rebuild and that try to monitor the progress.

Yes, we can monitor the progress...and we can even rip the Coach & AD if goals aren't being met.

With a new coach, I look at recruiting. I'd rather have recruiting than transfers. I don't want transfers until we have a base of recruits coming up as juniors & sophomores.

Ben's first recruits are freshmen now...and so far I've seen 3 of them showing potential. A few 10 (even 20) point games here & there. I'm hoping for some competitive Big Ten play from them in the last 5 games of the season.

And recruiting improved in the next class.
Click to expand...
Just so you know, I don't think I've seen a post on here that doesn't understand we are on a rebuild. The question is how that rebuild is progressing and when we can start having any expectations.

The people you claim don't understand this point aren't like arguing Ben should make the tournament or contend or anything. It's merely that we shouldn't be historically bad.


Also, you keep saying it, but this is Ben's second class. Ben brought in Battle, Thiam, Thompson, Ramberg and Fox. Those are Ben's recruits. I guess if you want to argue Thompson isn't, we can suspend disbelief for that, but the other 4 are/were absolutely 100% Ben Johnson recruits.
 


Bob_Loblaw said:
Just so you know, I don't think I've seen a post on here that doesn't understand we are on a rebuild. The question is how that rebuild is progressing and when we can start having any expectations.

The people you claim don't understand this point aren't like arguing Ben should make the tournament or contend or anything. It's merely that we shouldn't be historically bad.


Also, you keep saying it, but this is Ben's second class. Ben brought in Battle, Thiam, Thompson, Ramberg and Fox. Those are Ben's recruits. I guess if you want to argue Thompson isn't, we can suspend disbelief for that, but the other 4 are/were absolutely 100% Ben Johnson recruits.
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Great post. I don’t think anybody is suggesting that CBJ needs to make the tourney or he’ll lose his job. But there is a wide gulf between needing to make the tourney and having literally zero expectations as some on this board have. There is a lot of middle ground left between those extremes. In the age of the transfer portal, I find it utterly perplexing that having an expectation that in year 2 of a staff that maybe you should be winning more than 0-2 conference games. The actual wins/losses don’t bother me too much, but to back up the OP, you better at least be competitive. They’ve been utterly embarrassed on numerous occasions already this young season. That needs to stop happening and this team needs to show progress.

The more this team looks uncompetitive this year, the deeper a hole CBJ is going to dig, and will need even more of a drastic turnaround next year. Wins/losses ABSOLUTELY start to matter next year (year 3, and no, that’s not unreasonable). If we’re accepting that we’re basically throwing away 2 years, that means come year 3, we better as hell not be playing on Weakling Wednesday (good grief, our expectations are low), and at least be sniffing the NIT.
 

Crappie said:
1. Win conference games. At least 4 this year.
2. Improve defense to top 125 this year.
3. Improve offense. Not necessarily metrics. Offensive identity.
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Our order is a little different, but we match almost identically. I want defense to be priority and I think that takes care of the winning (which we both expect the same amount). As far as offensively I’d just like to see some more movement and ball reversals.
 


Dupreefor3 said:
Disagree the problem is we are trying to put a square peg in a round hole with guys like Battle and Garcia and we don't have the guard depth quantity or quality right now to fix it
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You actually agree with me. Battle & Garcia aren't complimented properly because they're playing with brand new freshmen.

Like I said...this 'roster management' will correct itself when Ben's recruits are juniors & sophomores.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Just so you know, I don't think I've seen a post on here that doesn't understand we are on a rebuild. The question is how that rebuild is progressing and when we can start having any expectations.

The people you claim don't understand this point aren't like arguing Ben should make the tournament or contend or anything. It's merely that we shouldn't be historically bad.


Also, you keep saying it, but this is Ben's second class. Ben brought in Battle, Thiam, Thompson, Ramberg and Fox. Those are Ben's recruits. I guess if you want to argue Thompson isn't, we can suspend disbelief for that, but the other 4 are/were absolutely 100% Ben Johnson recruits.
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What??

Almost none of the posts on here understand that we are on a rebuild.
 

MNJay said:
You actually agree with me. Battle & Garcia aren't complimented properly because they're playing with brand new freshmen.

Like I said...this 'roster management' will correct itself when Ben's recruits are juniors & sophomores.
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He recruited all of them.
 

MNJay said:
What??

Almost none of the posts on here understand that we are on a rebuild.
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We are rebuilding. It's just that some of us are a little concerned with the construction progress and architecture. get it?
 

bga1 said:
We are rebuilding. It's just that some of us are a little concerned with the construction progress and architecture. get it?
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The construction progress and architecture will be much easier when we have 2-3 recruiting classes on the team instead of just 1.
 

MNJay said:
The construction progress and architecture will be much easier when we have 2-3 recruiting classes on the team instead of just 1.
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Sure it will. But no one is going to listen to this song and dance routine a year from now if we do not finish well this year and if we look to not be able compete for an NCAA spot next year.

The point you are missing is that you don't have forever to gain momentum. This next class is off to a GREAT start with Evans and Christie. I love that duo. We are going to need a really good transfer guard because of the construction of this team. That guard is going to need to believe we can win next year.

I think that, if we can get that guard and Christie and Evans are as good as advertised, then we should be ready to rock and roll. The fans will live with pain this year but it has to be with the promise that next year is going to be good. When people say 4-5 years- I say no and most other fans do as well.

If Ben starts off 4-16 then 2-18 and then 6-14... he won't get fired but its basically over. Who are you going to get to join for the party in that "3rd class" you are talking about, if that is the track record?
 

bga1 said:
Sure it will. But no one is going to listen to this song and dance routine a year from now if we do not finish well this year and if we look to not be able compete for an NCAA spot next year.

The point you are missing is that you don't have forever to gain momentum. This next class is off to a GREAT start with Evans and Christie. I love that duo. We are going to need a really good transfer guard because of the construction of this team. That guard is going to need to believe we can win next year.

I think that, if we can get that guard and Christie and Evans are as good as advertised, then we should be ready to rock and roll. The fans will live with pain this year but it has to be with the promise that next year is going to be good. When people say 4-5 years- I say no and most other fans do as well.

If Ben starts off 4-16 then 2-18 and then 6-14... he won't get fired but its basically over. Who are you going to get to join for the party in that "3rd class" you are talking about, if that is the track record?
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If a player believes in the vision the coach is selling I don't think players will look back to a 3 year record and really care. He can get the same caliber player as he is now. Some coaches are just good recruiters.
 



bga1 said:
Sure it will. But no one is going to listen to this song and dance routine a year from now if we do not finish well this year and if we look to not be able compete for an NCAA spot next year.

The point you are missing is that you don't have forever to gain momentum. This next class is off to a GREAT start with Evans and Christie. I love that duo. We are going to need a really good transfer guard because of the construction of this team. That guard is going to need to believe we can win next year.

I think that, if we can get that guard and Christie and Evans are as good as advertised, then we should be ready to rock and roll. The fans will live with pain this year but it has to be with the promise that next year is going to be good. When people say 4-5 years- I say no and most other fans do as well.

If Ben starts off 4-16 then 2-18 and then 6-14... he won't get fired but its basically over. Who are you going to get to join for the party in that "3rd class" you are talking about, if that is the track record?
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Haskins was 2-16 & 4-14 with his first players as freshmen & sophomores. But they made the Sweet-16 as juniors.

Next year Ben will have sophomores. I'm giving him until the year-after-next.
 

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