How to measure success

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MNJay said:
No, this rebuild attempt can NOT be called a trainwreck already. That contradicts the definition. The negativity level on this board shows that guys are not accepting that this is a rebuild. Plus most of the analysis is about 'did we win or not'.

My focus is almost entirely on our freshmen and our recruits.
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What? You don't think a rebuild can be a trainwreck ever? I'm not saying this one is (yet), but are you saying it is an actual contradiction to ever consider a re-build a trainwreck?

If you do agree that a rebuild CAN be a trainwreck, it's just a matter of opinion when that becomes the case (and by how you measure). You seem to think that if we keep games within 10 points during Ben Johnson's third year, all is gravy. That's cool, we have a slight difference of opinion but please note it's a difference of opinion and not a contradiction.

I had season tickets for the Timberwolves during the Rambis years and the idea that it's a contradiction to call a rebuild a trainwreck is really an absurd statement.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
What? You don't think a rebuild can be a trainwreck ever? I'm not saying this one is (yet), but are you saying it is an actual contradiction to ever consider a re-build a trainwreck?

If you do agree that a rebuild CAN be a trainwreck, it's just a matter of opinion when that becomes the case (and by how you measure). You seem to think that if we keep games within 10 points during Ben Johnson's third year, all is gravy. That's cool, we have a slight difference of opinion but please note it's a difference of opinion and not a contradiction.

I had season tickets for the Timberwolves during the Rambis years and the idea that it's a contradiction to call a rebuild a trainwreck is really an absurd statement.
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Somewhere Sam Hinkie is laughing while saying, trust the process.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Somewhere Sam Hinkie is laughing while saying, trust the process.
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Well, his situation was different. Losing badly for a few years could reap significant benefits in his competitive environment. I don't like what he did but he did leave his program in pretty good position until subsequent management screwed it up.
 

cjbfbp said:
Well, his situation was different. Losing badly for a few years could reap significant benefits in his competitive environment. I don't like what he did but he did leave his program in pretty good position until subsequent management screwed it up.
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I agree he should’ve remained, but everyone has tried to take his approach and use the “trust the process approach” even when it is going off the rails. The difference in the NBA, you get picks. In college you get nothing. A rebuild is not guaranteed and so many of these recruiting sites swing and miss on recruiting rankings all the time. It’s like a 25% ratio of a 4 star recruit turning into a star and maybe a 40% of a 5 star turning into a star…not super hopeful.
 

howeda7 said:
Since we've been told by some we can't care about wins this year, and this is at least somewhat true, how do we measure progress for this team? The "eye test" is too vague/subjective.

For non-Weakling Wednesday games (14 of the 18 remaining B1G games), I will look for the following:

-In at least 7 of the 14 be within 2 possessions (6 points) at some point in the last 16 minutes of the game. If you do this, you played a competitive game, IMO. So far we are 0/6 doing this our losses. That is not acceptable.

-In at least 4 of the above games, be within one possession (3 points) at some point in the last 5 minutes of the game. This makes it a true coin flip.

-Win at least one of these games.

For the Weakling Wednesday games: (Nebraska x 2, Northwestern, Penn State)

-Meet the first criteria on all 4

-Meet the second criteria on 3/4

-Win at least one of these games.

Overall:

Go at least 10-10 in making games competitive. Currently 0-2. Last year's team went ~12-8 in hitting this mark.

Go at least 7-13 in making games a coin flip. Last year's team went ~8-12 in hitting this mark.

Win at least 2 B1G games.
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The Wisconsin game was both competitive and a coin flip. Now 1-2, 1-2, 0-3.
 



UpAndUnder43 said:
One thing to remember is recruits are great. But they aren’t tied here. Example? https://dailyillini.com/sports-stories/2023/01/06/skyy-clark-illini-basketball-2/

Top 30 player on ESPN lasted 13 games
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Absolutely true, but we have been told that the wagon we are hitching to is the current staff's desire to recruit character and cultural fit. One would assume that with that kind of care being taken in the recruiting process, a player would not be jumping ship so quickly and impulsively. At that's what I'm hoping. We're a season and half in and have yet to see any midseason quits or embarrassing character or discipline problems. So far, so good on that score.
 

Holy Man said:
Absolutely true, but we have been told that the wagon we are hitching to is the current staff's desire to recruit character and cultural fit. One would assume that with that kind of care being taken in the recruiting process, a player would not be jumping ship so quickly and impulsively. At that's what I'm hoping. We're a season and half in and have yet to see any midseason quits or embarrassing character or discipline problems. So far, so good on that score.
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No doubt. But always a factor. Will be interesting to see what the end of season looks like for the gophers. Could see some departures due to playing/culture fits. Obviously nearly every player from Year Zero left due to being 30 years old and on their 11th year of college. So with younger guys with options there may be a difference. Time will tell.
 

One way to measure success is if fan interest starts to firm up, both short term and long term. I think some of the "patience" people neglect the reality that the U relies on basketball revenue to subsidize the other sports. They can't afford a program that's failing, including failing to attract an audience.

 




Bad Gopher said:
I'd still like to think we can win some games and avoid playing on Wednesday of the BTT. Once they signed Garcia, that was the floor of my expectations, and why would I back off on that now?

That said, we are where we are: destined to be statistical underdogs in every game we play, likely to win 2 or 3 by statistical variance. Within that framework, what would I like to see happen?
  • Improve defensively: having more of a clue and expending improved effort, especially on the perimeter
  • Improve free throw shooting. There's no reason why a proficient jump shooter like Cooper, for example, can't be better at the line. We're probably talking about mechanics and mental focus and approach, which are correctable.
  • Generally improve throughout the season. Every team should, and so should we.
  • When it comes to wins, out-perform the statistical expectation: win 3 or more conference games.
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So you're saying that a 3-17 (.15 W-L%) conference record is a win?

That would be the Gopher's 3rd worse winning percentage in 90 years.
 


Do we win at least 7+ big ten games in 2023-2024 season
If no, I’m out.

I’ve already seen enough where I don’t think you give him a 4th year just based on vibes.


This has always been a throwaway year.
You know it was a throwaway year because a guy who was the 9-10th man on a team that got the coach fired and another guy who has never played division 1 basketball being injured were seen as major losses.
 



Getting beat at home...by Nebraska! Gopher basketball has hit rock bottom.
 
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Mikie S said:
So you're saying that a 3-17 (.15 W-L%) conference record is a win?

That would be the Gopher's 3rd worse winning percentage in 90 years.
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Success is relative. If you read the entire post, you know that my expectation going in was avoiding Weakling Wednesday, and I wasn't backing off that. That would be a decent level of achievement in my book. Would I consider three wins to be acceptable? It's tough to put that in a category, but from where we sit right now, I'd take it.
 

Some guy said:
Do we win at least 7+ big ten games in 2023-2024 season
If no, I’m out.

I’ve already seen enough where I don’t think you give him a 4th year just based on vibes.


This has always been a throwaway year.
You know it was a throwaway year because a guy who was the 9-10th man on a team that got the coach fired and another guy who has never played division 1 basketball being injured were seen as major losses.
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I think we do. I'd put at least eight dollars on that.
 

Some guy said:
Do we win at least 7+ big ten games in 2023-2024 season
If no, I’m out.

I’ve already seen enough where I don’t think you give him a 4th year just based on vibes.


This has always been a throwaway year.
You know it was a throwaway year because a guy who was the 9-10th man on a team that got the coach fired and another guy who has never played division 1 basketball being injured were seen as major losses.
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4-16, 1-19, 7-13 should not get anyone year 4.
 


howeda7 said:
4-16, 1-19, 7-13 should not get anyone year 4.
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If we are 7-13 we will be a bubble team late in the season and maybe an NIT type bid assuming 8-2 or 9-1 in the non conference.
I think that gets him year 4.


7-13 with a 5-5 non conference doesnt maybe
 

Some guy said:
If we are 7-13 we will be a bubble team late in the season and maybe an NIT type bid assuming 8-2 or 9-1 in the non conference.
I think that gets him year 4.


7-13 with a 5-5 non conference doesnt maybe
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I agree. Ben is Coyle's guy. He's going to be given every chance. If wins are trending up and the Gophs aren't playing on Wednesday of the BTT, the narrative will be that this thing has turned the corner.
 


howeda7 said:
The Nebraska game also checks 2/3 boxes. Too bad it was the best chance to get a win. Now 2-2, 2-2, 0-4.
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After beating OSU, now 3-2, 3-2 keeping games competitive/coin flip and 1-4 overall.
 

Still struggling to understand why anybody thinks this year or next year is make or break. Recall that NO ONE that played last year was on the prior year’s team under the previous coach. This year, a lot of minutes are occupied by underclassmen. Who is expecting a load of W’s and why?

Yeah i wish Ben had the Gophers as a FF team in year two. Gosh that would be wonderful. Realism is that this is a total rebuild and will take time. I expect that in two years, when the current class of FR is juniors, that the team should become consistently competitive . Until then, you hand wringers are wringing your hands unnecessarily.
 

cncmin said:
Still struggling to understand why anybody thinks this year or next year is make or break. Recall that NO ONE that played last year was on the prior year’s team under the previous coach. This year, a lot of minutes are occupied by underclassmen. Who is expecting a load of W’s and why?

Yeah i wish Ben had the Gophers as a FF team in year two. Gosh that would be wonderful. Realism is that this is a total rebuild and will take time. I expect that in two years, when the current class of FR is juniors, that the team should become consistently competitive . Until then, you hand wringers are wringing your hands unnecessarily.
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Progress is like porn, you know it when you see it.
 
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howeda7 said:
After beating OSU, now 3-2, 3-2 keeping games competitive/coin flip and 1-4 overall.
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Illinois was a few seconds away from being a 6 point game under 16:00 but didn't make it. Now 3-3, 3-3, 1-5
 

We’ve played 7 good-excellent halves over the last 4 games, with a horrible 2nd half against a team we’ve had no not little to no success against and then was one of the preseason favs to win the conference and who I will be shocked doesn’t make the Sweet 16.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
We’ve played 7 good-excellent halves over the last 4 games, with a horrible 2nd half against a team we’ve had no not little to no success against and then was one of the preseason favs to win the conference and who I will be shocked doesn’t make the Sweet 16.
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So what.
 

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