Gophers Still Have A Good Chance at NCAA Berth

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I think if we win the BTT we might get looked at. Probably not in though
 




Rosemountian said:
you are dumb and no absolutely nothing about bracketology.
They win the next 2 and they have to win 2 to even be on the bubble?

I'll have what you're having
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Where do you get your info on the "bracketology?" you are using...
 


If you go to the ESPN scoreboard for tuesday and change the drop-down menu to "bubble watch" the Gopher game is listed on it. Not sure how loosely they define bubble teams in that, but it can't be a bad sign.
 

Rosemountian said:
you are dumb and no absolutely nothing about bracketology.
They win the next 2 and they have to win 2 to even be on the bubble?

I'll have what you're having
Click to expand...

Unfortunately it is accurate. Let's put it this way:

-We are a bubble out team right now
-The bubble will almost certainly shrink
-Generally speaking, as many teams will play themselves into the discussion as will play out
-Now assuming we remain the six seed in the Big Ten, our next three games will be against teams with less than a 100 RPI.
-Any losses in these games is a "bad loss."
-Any wins in these games does nothing.
-So, if we win the next three, we are a bubble out team, on a shrinking bubble. We will still be out...
-After a first round win, we will be playing the B10 three seed.
-This is our first opportunity to improve our resume.
-If we win on a neutral court, our resume looks relatively strong, minus a low RPI.
-With a shrinking bubble, this probably puts us in, but it is not a sure-fire bet.
-If we lose one of the next two BT games, we will need two significant wins, at least, to be a legitimate contender, AKA, we'll need to be in the conference tournament finals, to have a SHOT. You could argue we would need to win the BTT at this point.
-If we lose our next two BT games, our only chance is to win the BTT.

Anyways, winning our next four games gives us a decent chance of making the dance. Anything more puts us as a lock, anything less and we are living on a prayer.
 

A suggestion. There is a way we might so to speak "back in." But it isn't really backing in if we win out in conference.

Anyway, Illinois could easily lose the next two games that they play. Should Minnesota win both of the last two, fifth place in conference. I may be wrong, but I don't think that fifth place has ever missed the tourney, probably the last wild card in this scenario complicating it would be Illinois winning the tourney.
 

They give bids to teams, not conferences. We want Illinois to do well, as it makes our win against them look better. Of course, if they lose out, there is an extra seat in the tournament. Then again, we then would be in need of another quality victory. Miami (Fl) is considered a bad lostt by realtime RPI now, and Northwestern is dangerously close to becoming a bad loss. Personally, I would like to see Illinois win out and secure their bid, and it makes us look that much better by beating them on the road.
 



macgopher said:
A suggestion. There is a way we might so to speak "back in." But it isn't really backing in if we win out in conference.

Anyway, Illinois could easily lose the next two games that they play. Should Minnesota win both of the last two, fifth place in conference. I may be wrong, but I don't think that fifth place has ever missed the tourney, probably the last wild card in this scenario complicating it would be Illinois winning the tourney.
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Didn't Mike Davis make a big stink about being the fourth place team in the Big Ten and not getting in the tourney? This was in '04-'05 when we tied Indiana for fourth and we got the invite. They were 15-13 that season, but 10-6 in the Big Ten.
 

hyaluronic They give bids to teams, not conferences. We want Illinois to do well, as it makes our win against them look better. Of course, if they lose out, there is an extra seat in the tournament. Then again, we then would be in need of another quality victory. Miami (Fl) is considered a bad lostt by realtime RPI now, and Northwestern is dangerously close to becoming a bad loss. Personally, I would like to see Illinois win out and secure their bid, and it makes us look that much better by beating them on the road.

Sour1729 Didn't Mike Davis make a big stink about being the fourth place team in the Big Ten and not getting in the tourney? This was in '04-'05 when we tied Indiana for fourth and we got the invite. They were 15-13 that season, but 10-6 in the Big Ten.
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Good points. Agreed that the NCAA gives bids to teams not conferences, except that the Big Ten stature is hard to ignore, hard for selection people to ignore that. Then again, didn't know 04-05 happened either.
 

macgopher said:
Should Minnesota win both of the last two, fifth place in conference. I may be wrong, but I don't think that fifth place has ever missed the tourney, probably the last wild card in this scenario complicating it would be Illinois winning the tourney.
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I know some of you "old timers of the board" will remember this quote from Mike Davis(former Hoosier head coach). We had a pretty good time with it.

On Indiana's NCAA chances:
"We're in fourth place. We are the fourth seed. We won 10 games, you do the math."

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/031105aai.html

Coach Davis said that after 5th seeded Minnesota beat 4th seeded Indiana in 2005. Both teams finished 10-6 in the conference. We went to the NCAAs(finished 21-11). Indy went to the NIT(finished15-14). Gophers had an RPI in the 40's, Hoosiers in the 80's.
Pomeroy had the Gophers 43, Indy 52.
I realize that our overall record isn't as bad as that Hoosier team,but a 4th seed(tied for 4th place) has been left out of the NCAAs.

Hoosiers 04-05 schedule: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/schedule?teamId=84&year=2005
Gophers 04-05 schedule: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/schedule?teamId=135&year=2005
 

Missed-layup said:
Where do you get your info on the "bracketology?" you are using...
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They are already on the bubble genius. If they don't lose till they play the 3 seed in the 3-6 game, you think they will get knocked out of consideration?
 



hyaluronic said:
Unfortunately it is accurate. Let's put it this way:

-We are a bubble out team right now
-The bubble will almost certainly shrink
-Generally speaking, as many teams will play themselves into the discussion as will play out
-Now assuming we remain the six seed in the Big Ten, our next three games will be against teams with less than a 100 RPI.
-Any losses in these games is a "bad loss."
-Any wins in these games does nothing.
-So, if we win the next three, we are a bubble out team, on a shrinking bubble. We will still be out...
-After a first round win, we will be playing the B10 three seed.
-This is our first opportunity to improve our resume.
-If we win on a neutral court, our resume looks relatively strong, minus a low RPI.
-With a shrinking bubble, this probably puts us in, but it is not a sure-fire bet.
-If we lose one of the next two BT games, we will need two significant wins, at least, to be a legitimate contender, AKA, we'll need to be in the conference tournament finals, to have a SHOT. You could argue we would need to win the BTT at this point.
-If we lose our next two BT games, our only chance is to win the BTT.

Anyways, winning our next four games gives us a decent chance of making the dance. Anything more puts us as a lock, anything less and we are living on a prayer.
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The statement that was made was they need to win 4 more games to even be on the bubble. They already are on the bubble. If they win the next 2 plus one in the conference tourney and then lose in the 3-6 game. They will receive strong consideration.

Going 3-1 and losing to a top 20 RPI team doesn't take you from the bubble to a definite out.
 

Missed-layup said:
The people on television (or in the GH) who are most certain are almost certainly going to be wrong. As Tetlock writes, "The dominant danger [for pundits] remains hubris, the vice of closed-mindedness, of dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly."
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I couldn't help but notice that you seem quite certain that you are right. Hmmmmm.
 

hyaluronic said:
Unfortunately it is accurate. Let's put it this way:

-We are a bubble out team right now
-The bubble will almost certainly shrink
-Generally speaking, as many teams will play themselves into the discussion as will play out
-Now assuming we remain the six seed in the Big Ten, our next three games will be against teams with less than a 100 RPI.
-Any losses in these games is a "bad loss."
-Any wins in these games does nothing.
-So, if we win the next three, we are a bubble out team, on a shrinking bubble. We will still be out...
-After a first round win, we will be playing the B10 three seed.
-This is our first opportunity to improve our resume.
-If we win on a neutral court, our resume looks relatively strong, minus a low RPI.
-With a shrinking bubble, this probably puts us in, but it is not a sure-fire bet.
-If we lose one of the next two BT games, we will need two significant wins, at least, to be a legitimate contender, AKA, we'll need to be in the conference tournament finals, to have a SHOT. You could argue we would need to win the BTT at this point.
-If we lose our next two BT games, our only chance is to win the BTT.

Anyways, winning our next four games gives us a decent chance of making the dance. Anything more puts us as a lock, anything less and we are living on a prayer.
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Well said!
 

GopherJake said:
I couldn't help but notice that you seem quite certain that you are right. Hmmmmm.
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I am certain, but not to the point where I won't hear others opinions nor consider that I might be wrong. I am open minded enough to be challenged, and on GH, verbally abused. Sometimes I feel like the Rodney King of this place. But I am a tough "Mo' Fo", thus I continue to attempt to change one mind at a time.
 

Rosemountian said:
They are already on the bubble genius. If they don't lose till they play the 3 seed in the 3-6 game, you think they will get knocked out of consideration?
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The only bubble we are on right now is the one you live in. Lets put it this way. If the season were to end today with every team playing the same number of games, the Gophers would not be in, nor would we be considered. Thus we are not on the bubble and won't be on the bubble until we win the next 4 games. That would give us 21 wins then we might be considered but probably not in, thus on the bubble - (this is open for debate).

We have to win the next four to be on the outside edge of some bubble, that you don't live in, and 5 to be a sure thing NCAA team. That would give us 22 wins....
 

The only bubble we are on right now is the one you live in. Lets put it this way. If the season were to end today with every team playing the same number of games, the Gophers would not be in, nor would we be considered. Thus we are not on the bubble and won't be on the bubble until we win the next 4 games. That would give us 21 wins then we might be considered but probably not in, thus on the bubble - (this is open for debate).
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When people like Lunardi are including us as their last four in/first four out - We're on the bubble.

The extent of your trolling has become impressive.
 

Reserve said:
When people like Lunardi are including us as their last four in/first four out - We're on the bubble.

The extent of your trolling has become impressive.
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How can we be on a bubble when if the season ended today, we would not be in or considered? We have to earn our way onto the bubble then into the NCAA tournament. We might be close but we have a ways to go. We are likely splitting hairs here, it does not matter until the season ends.

Put it this way, the Gophers control their own destiny. If they win out, they are in.
 

How can we be on a bubble when if the season ended today, we would not be in or considered? We have to earn our way onto the bubble then into the NCAA tournament. We might be close but we have a ways to go. We are likely splitting hairs here, it does not matter until the season ends.

Put it this way, the Gophers control their own destiny. If they win out, they are in.
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For Godsake you idiot the season doesn't end today. Any bracket projection is flexible pointing towards an end of the season projection.

No one is splitting hairs. It's been confirmed, you're a troll.
 

Rosemountian said:
The statement that was made was they need to win 4 more games to even be on the bubble. They already are on the bubble. If they win the next 2 plus one in the conference tourney and then lose in the 3-6 game. They will receive strong consideration.

Going 3-1 and losing to a top 20 RPI team doesn't take you from the bubble to a definite out.
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The general consensus is that we are a bubble "out" team. If we win our next three, and lose our fourth, our RPI will be roughly the same, and we will have no more quality wins, and our record against top competition will be one loss worse. You are correct that we will still be on the bubble if we go 3-1. However, as the open positions in the tournament will likely shrink due to a few tournament spoilers, what is currently a "Last Four Out" projection will likely put us out of any serious consideration. Now, if we go 4-1, we've improved our quality wins, our overall record against quality opponents, and our RPI will increase. This gives us a good shot at making the tournament, even with a shrinking bubble.

Now, if we are talking about NCAA births from a hypothetical perspective, yes, 3-1 could get us in the tournament. However, two things would have to happen: 1.) Every team that wins their conference tournament would have made the tournament regardless OR the conference's only possible bid is from the tournament winner; 2.) A few teams that are bubble "in" rack up some bad losses, making their resume worse than ours AND no teams "below" us that are bubble "out" gain any quality wins, preventing their resume from becoming better than ours.

The first point almost never holds, and neither does the second. Some teams will improve their resumes this week, others will play themselves out. Some teams will make an upset run in their conference tournament. It's the way this time of year works.

Basically, our next three games are like walking through a field of landmines. Nothing good can come of it. Our fourth game is where we can make the headway, and make a case for the NCAA tournament.
 

"Our fourth game is where we can make the headway, and make a case for the NCAA tournament."

Excellent post. It's possible it might only be the third game, if we can get the #5 seed ahead of Illinois. Then we could avoid the potential nightmare of losing to a crappy team in Thursday's play-in round. Very little good comes out of playing Thursday. That "extra" win would help the Gophers' road/neutral record, but that's about it. As you pointed out, it's the quarterfinals when the Gophers must likely deliver.
 

Reserve said:
For Godsake you idiot the season doesn't end today. Any bracket projection is flexible pointing towards an end of the season projection.

No one is splitting hairs. It's been confirmed, you're a troll.
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Seriously, take your pills. You are splitting hairs and we are not even a bubble team. We will be a bubble team when/if we get to 21 wins...
 

hyaluronic said:
The general consensus is that we are a bubble "out" team. If we win our next three, and lose our fourth, our RPI will be roughly the same, and we will have no more quality wins, and our record against top competition will be one loss worse. You are correct that we will still be on the bubble if we go 3-1. However, as the open positions in the tournament will likely shrink due to a few tournament spoilers, what is currently a "Last Four Out" projection will likely put us out of any serious consideration. Now, if we go 4-1, we've improved our quality wins, our overall record against quality opponents, and our RPI will increase. This gives us a good shot at making the tournament, even with a shrinking bubble.

Now, if we are talking about NCAA births from a hypothetical perspective, yes, 3-1 could get us in the tournament. However, two things would have to happen: 1.) Every team that wins their conference tournament would have made the tournament regardless OR the conference's only possible bid is from the tournament winner; 2.) A few teams that are bubble "in" rack up some bad losses, making their resume worse than ours AND no teams "below" us that are bubble "out" gain any quality wins, preventing their resume from becoming better than ours.

The first point almost never holds, and neither does the second. Some teams will improve their resumes this week, others will play themselves out. Some teams will make an upset run in their conference tournament. It's the way this time of year works.

Basically, our next three games are like walking through a field of landmines. Nothing good can come of it. Our fourth game is where we can make the headway, and make a case for the NCAA tournament.
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This analysis is excellent and I agree completely with your assessment of our situation.
 

THE BEST SCENARIO

Lotta of IF"S and BUTS- this is the best scenario

Gophers finish 10-8 as does Ill. Gophers are the #5 seed.

Gophers as the #5 seed play Pur who would fall to the #4 seed.. Beat Purdue for win #20 and all be it without Hummel this win would benefit the Gophers most.

My only question is if Pur and Wisc end up tied who would have the tiebreaker? Pur at Penn St will be a game....
 

I think I would rather play Purdue minus Hummel....That would be an interesting scenario
 

Purdue would have edge over Badgers for #3 seed

"My only question is if Pur and Wisc end up tied who would have the tiebreaker? Pur at Penn St will be a game...."

With the scenario you presented (assuming OSU #1 seed, MSU #2, Badgers-Boilers tied for third, Gophers #5), Purdue would get the #3 seed over the Badgers by virtue of their sweep of the Gophers.

Badgers and Purdue both split with OSU;
both split with MSU;
deciding tiebreaker would be Boilers were 2-0 vs. Gophers, Badgers 0-1 vs. Gophers.
 

I stand corrected. Apparently the Gophers did not use the Purdue loss as a stepping stone!!! We can still get in with 5 wins in the Big Ten Tourny. We need 22 wins!
 


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