Gophers QBs could face a battle from Philip Nelson

[Hammer Time]

Playing Nelson this year would be a huge mistake barring major injuries. I would argue that even if Nelson wows the coaches in the fall and runs the offense a little better than Gray, the difference in wins would be minimal between the two running the team. The team is still lacking depth and in need of more talent on both sides of the ball, plus Nelson needs to adjust to Big Ten football and the system.

If you believe in the future of the team and Nelson's development the difference in wins between starting a 5th year starting QB (Nelson) in place of whoever else is on the depth chart in 5 years could potentially be much larger than this upcoming season.

 

[GreasyGopher]

i'm not sure how you feel that you can say that so confidentially.

adam weber was an above average big 10 qb his rs freshman year.

weber was on campus for one whole semester longer than nelson.

weber was playing basketball in the winter baseball in the spring before matriculating. nelson is playing football. in fact he was doing quite well in the semper fidelis all-american bowl in january against recruits, many of whom are going to be starting this fall.

i am not saying that nelson will be all big ten, but i am saying that it is perfectly reasonable to imagine that nelson at qb and gray at wr could make the gophers a better team.

i am not trying to shut down anyone's argument, just pointing out that the point is, actually, moot.

You're omitting one key factor: Adam Weber experienced the rigors of a college season prior to starting in the Big Ten. He had first hand experience of what it takes to prepare for a game, the game day experience as well as being on the sideline during the game. My point was not that a true freshman will never start but a true freshman is not going to come in and take the position from the incumbent. The incumbent may not have been the most polished passer year one but he progressed throughout last year and has shown a willingness to work hard. It's not a stretch to believe he has progressed greatly in Kill's system since last year. For Gray to not be the QB this year someone will have to take it from him. Starting a true freshman isn't how the Gophers are going to get to the next level. Nelson could end up being the greatest Gopher QB ever or he could be mediocre but the Gophers need to let him develop into the position and not throw him to the wolves.

 

[John Galt]

i'm not sure how you feel that you can say that so confidentially.

adam weber was an above average big 10 qb his rs freshman year.

weber was on campus for one whole semester longer than nelson.

weber was playing basketball in the winter baseball in the spring before matriculating. nelson is playing football. in fact he was doing quite well in the semper fidelis all-american bowl in january against recruits, many of whom are going to be starting this fall.

i am not saying that nelson will be all big ten, but i am saying that it is perfectly reasonable to imagine that nelson at qb and gray at wr could make the gophers a better team.

i am not trying to shut down anyone's argument, just pointing out that the point is, actually, moot.

Weber was a redshirt freshmen and beat out Tony Mortenson, who never took a snap for the Gophers. Nelson is a true freshmen and would have to beat out a returning starter who threw 3 TD passes on the road against the B1G regular season champions and was the 3rd leading rusher for a QB in the nation.

 

[RodentRampage]

It would be a real longshot for Nelson to beat out Gray for the starting job. He might be able to get the backup job, but I would prefer to redshirt him unless he's way better than his competitors for the backup spot.

 

[dpodoll68]

My point was not that a true freshman will never start but a true freshman is not going to come in and take the position from the incumbent.

+1

Terrelle Pryor was a great college football player. Just an outstanding college football player. Probably the best true freshman QB we've seen in quite some time. But even he wasn't good enough to come in and unseat a rather pedestrian incumbent QB. It took Boeckman getting pantsed on the road by USC for Tressel to finally give Pryor the reigns in week 4. And Nelson is no Pryor.

 

[KD6-3.7]

+1

Terrelle Pryor was a great college football player. Just an outstanding college football player. Probably the best true freshman QB we've seen in quite some time. But even he wasn't good enough to come in and unseat a rather pedestrian incumbent QB. It took Boeckman getting pantsed on the road by USC for Tressel to finally give Pryor the reigns in week 4. And Nelson is no Pryor.

gray is no boeckman

 

[KD6-3.7]

You're omitting one key factor: Adam Weber experienced the rigors of a college season prior to starting in the Big Ten. He had first hand experience of what it takes to prepare for a game, the game day experience as well as being on the sideline during the game. My point was not that a true freshman will never start but a true freshman is not going to come in and take the position from the incumbent. The incumbent may not have been the most polished passer year one but he progressed throughout last year and has shown a willingness to work hard. It's not a stretch to believe he has progressed greatly in Kill's system since last year. For Gray to not be the QB this year someone will have to take it from him. Starting a true freshman isn't how the Gophers are going to get to the next level. Nelson could end up being the greatest Gopher QB ever or he could be mediocre but the Gophers need to let him develop into the position and not throw him to the wolves.

you may not have, but there were plenty of people clamoring for gray in 2009. also, i am not forgetting that weber 'experienced the rigors of a college season' (on the bench behind two other qbs), i am just not assigning that much value. if you think that sitting on the bench for six months turned weber into an above average big 10 qb, that's fine. i think that the difference would have been minimal.

again, though, it's moot.

 

[MNGopher3409]

+1

Terrelle Pryor was a great college football player. Just an outstanding college football player. Probably the best true freshman QB we've seen in quite some time...???????????........ ................... And Nelson is no Pryor.

IMO Pryor is not a very good QB but a good athelete better describes him. Nelson will be a better QB than Pryor, already is.

 

[GreasyGopher]

you may not have, but there were plenty of people clamoring for gray in 2009. also, i am not forgetting that weber 'experienced the rigors of a college season' (on the bench behind two other qbs), i am just not assigning that much value. if you think that sitting on the bench for six months turned weber into an above average big 10 qb, that's fine. i think that the difference would have been minimal.

again, though, it's moot.

But you are assigning value to the spring practices Nelson is participating in?

 

[KD6-3.7]

But you are assigning value to the spring practices Nelson is participating in?

right. i'm not saying that you are wrong. just that my opinion is that there would not have been much difference in development whether nelson was here last fall.

obviously it's mho and not fact.

 

[Killjoy]

It will be what it will be....

Weber was a redshirt freshmen and beat out Tony Mortenson, who never took a snap for the Gophers. Nelson is a true freshmen and would have to beat out a returning starter who threw 3 TD passes on the road against the B1G regular season champions and was the 3rd leading rusher for a QB in the nation.

....but there is a reason Tom Lemming rated Nelson as his “biggest sleeper” of the 2012 class. He is that good. If any you were at Tuesday's practice/scrimmage you would understand why. There is also no question in my mind that Nelson has what it takes both physically and mentally to start and succeed as freshman. Therefore, the issue is not whether he could beat out the present starter or not but whether this would be in the best interest of Nelson, Gray, and the program. It is an interesting question which none of the many experts here need worry about because their opinions will have no weight in any decision. I am therefore very happy for that along with having both Gray and Nelson on our team.

 

[zambam]

[/B]

....but there is a reason Tom Lemming rated Nelson as his “biggest sleeper” of the 2012 class. He is that good. If any you were at Tuesday's practice/scrimmage you would understand why. There is also no question in my mind that Nelson has what it takes both physically and mentally to start and succeed as freshman. Therefore, the issue is not whether he could beat out the present starter or not but whether this would be in the best interest of Nelson, Gray, and the program. It is an interesting question which none of the many experts here need worry about because their opinions will have no weight in any decision. I am therefore very happy for that along with having both Gray and Nelson on our team.

The question most definitely remains if Nelson can beat out Gray. Even if he can, the next question has to be how much of a dfference he can be in wins compared to Gray. If the coaches feel it won't make a significant difference in wins, why waste the year of eligibilty? Redshirt Nelson, allow the players at other positions to develop (how many seniors other than Gray and I think Green are there expected to play on offense), allow the young WRs to get used to going against B1G secondaries, and bring in Nelson the next year even more set and ready to win.

 

[GoAUpher]

you may not have, but there were plenty of people clamoring for gray in 2009.

Weird, people were impatiently anointing a frosh as the savior back then too? Color me shocked.

 

[GreasyGopher]

right. i'm not saying that you are wrong. just that my opinion is that there would not have been much difference in development whether nelson was here last fall.

obviously it's mho and not fact.

I can see your point. There's no value in attending meetings. No value in film study. No value in watching upperclassman prepare for an opponent each and every week. There's no value in experiencing the environment at Wisconsin or Iowa firsthand. No value in being on the visitors sideline in front of 100,000+ screaming fans in the Big House. No value in learning how to handle emotions at homecoming in front of the home crowd. No value in (possibly) attending the bowl game? Everything needed for a freshman QB to succeed in BCS football can be learned in spring ball.

 

[Gopher07]

Why people are arguing against you:

1. The perception or reality that true freshmen QBs historically struggle.
2. The perception or reality that QBs historically improve from their first starting season to their second starting season in a system.
EDIT: 3. The perception or reality that redshirting a freshman will pay dividends in future seasons greater than the player starting immediately.

So now let's assume that the last six games of last year are a good sample size to base this year's performance for MarQueis on.

61/116 (52.6%) 870 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 5 TD (one every 23.2 attempts), 4 INT (one every 29 attempts)
122 rushes, 595 yards, 5 TD

Extrapolated over a full season...

122/232 (52.6%), 1,640 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 10 TD, 8 INT
244 rushes, 1,190 yards, 10 TD

Point two above would suggest at least marginal improvement in his play, ignoring other factors on the team (like losing McKnight, but gaining experience on the o-line). So for the sake of argument, let's say:

132/240 (55%), 1,850 yards (7.7 yards/attempt), 12 TD, 7 INT
236 rushes, 1,150 yards, 9 TD

Are you suggesting that Nelson will account for at least 3000 yards of offense and 20 TD as a freshman? Or that Gray will regress past the point that Nelson is capable of reaching?

 

[mntwinsfreak89]

Why people are arguing against you:

1. The perception or reality that true freshmen QBs historically struggle.
2. The perception or reality that QBs historically improve from their first starting season to their second starting season in a system.
EDIT: 3. The perception or reality that redshirting a freshman will pay dividends in future seasons greater than the player starting immediately.

So now let's assume that the last six games of last year are a good sample size to base this year's performance for MarQueis on.

61/116 (52.6%) 870 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 5 TD (one every 23.2 attempts), 4 INT (one every 29 attempts)
122 rushes, 595 yards, 5 TD

Extrapolated over a full season...

122/232 (52.6%), 1,640 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 10 TD, 8 INT
244 rushes, 1,190 yards, 10 TD

Point two above would suggest at least marginal improvement in his play, ignoring other factors on the team (like losing McKnight, but gaining experience on the o-line). So for the sake of argument, let's say:

132/240 (55%), 1,850 yards (7.7 yards/attempt), 12 TD, 7 INT
236 rushes, 1,150 yards, 9 TD

Are you suggesting that Nelson will account for at least 3000 yards of offense and 20 TD as a freshman? Or that Gray will regress past the point that Nelson is capable of reaching?

thank you for saying everything i want too.

 

[KD6-3.7]

W

So now let's assume that the last six games of last year are a good sample size to base this year's performance for MarQueis on.

61/116 (52.6%) 870 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 5 TD (one every 23.2 attempts), 4 INT (one every 29 attempts)
122 rushes, 595 yards, 5 TD

Extrapolated over a full season...

122/232 (52.6%), 1,640 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 10 TD, 8 INT
244 rushes, 1,190 yards, 10 TD

Point two above would suggest at least marginal improvement in his play, ignoring other factors on the team (like losing McKnight, but gaining experience on the o-line). So for the sake of argument, let's say:

132/240 (55%), 1,850 yards (7.7 yards/attempt), 12 TD, 7 INT
236 rushes, 1,150 yards, 9 TD

Are you suggesting that Nelson will account for at least 3000 yards of offense and 20 TD as a freshman? Or that Gray will regress past the point that Nelson is capable of reaching?

the thing about your post is that you set it up to look logical and mathematical and yet it is nothing more than an informed opinion, just like mine.

i am not suggesting anything. look back and see. i said that it is conceivable that the gophers could be a better team with nelson at qb and gray at wr. yelling "no it doesn't" in all caps does not make an argument.

edit: also, i'm not arguing. i am just entertaining an opinion.

 

[KD6-3.7]

I can see your point. There's no value in attending meetings. No value in film study. No value in watching upperclassman prepare for an opponent each and every week. There's no value in experiencing the environment at Wisconsin or Iowa firsthand. No value in being on the visitors sideline in front of 100,000+ screaming fans in the Big House. No value in learning how to handle emotions at homecoming in front of the home crowd. No value in (possibly) attending the bowl game? Everything needed for a freshman QB to succeed in BCS football can be learned in spring ball.

no, dude. i didn't say that there was no value. i conceded that there was value. i did question the extent of that value and if nelson might not have also added value in other ways. i never said that it their experiences would be the same or that nelson would be better if he didn't redshirt. you're getting worked up. i'm not a troll and i take no pleasure in your excitement.

 

[John Galt]

i said that it is conceivable that the gophers could be a better team with nelson at qb and gray at wr. /QUOTE]

A lot of things are conceivable. You came on here and said Gray should be a WR, Nelson should be the QB, and your "logic is unassailable." Looks like a few people have found holes in your argument.

 

[GreasyGopher]

no, dude. i didn't say that there was no value. i conceded that there was value. i did question the extent of that value and if nelson might not have also added value in other ways. i never said that it their experiences would be the same or that nelson would be better if he didn't redshirt. you're getting worked up. i'm not a troll and i take no pleasure in your excitement.

It is absolutely absurd to say the value of the experience gained going through a season is equivalent to the value of the experience gained by participating in spring practice. Absolutely absurd.

 

[KD6-3.7]

i said that it is conceivable that the gophers could be a better team with nelson at qb and gray at wr. /QUOTE]

A lot of things are conceivable. You came on here and said Gray should be a WR, Nelson should be the QB, and your "logic is unassailable." Looks like a few people have found holes in your argument.

in fact, i came on here saying that if there was a better qb on the team then gray should play wr and that person should play qb. others assumed that this was implying that nelson is better than gray. i don't know who's better, but chances are that gray is. i did have a quibble with the truism that freshmen should always be redshirted. you might be confusing my comparison of philip nelson to adam weber with the former assertion. that's understandable.

here's what i have said so far. gray has been no better than an average big 10 qb. the team might be better with gray at wr and someone else at qb. those are opinions and could very well be wrong. that's why i italicized might.

my major malfunction is when people become so adamant about a certain situation (in this case, gray being the starter next fall) that they talk themselves into believing that they are right and anyone who disagrees is wrong when the situation does not lend itself to a conclusion. i know that i could be wrong, but i'm not afraid to put my opinion out there. you feel as though you are right and because of that you need to know that i am wrong. so you only hear what you want to hear.

 

[KD6-3.7]

It is absolutely absurd to say the value of the experience gained going through a season is equivalent to the value of the experience gained by participating in spring practice. Absolutely absurd.

i wish i could draw a graph.

i agree that adam was better for having been with the team longer.

i also think that philip would be farther along if he had been with the team since last fall.

where we disagree is a) the amount of difference that exists between a player who shows up in fall compared to the player who shows up in spring and b) the fact that philip might be further along than adam was when he matriculated. it is conceivable that nelson next fall will be as prepared as weber was in 2007. that is not to say he should start. these are just two opinions that i think are viable.

 

[tjfelts_4]

Nelson needs to redshirt. Our offensive line and running backs are still young and IMO the gophers are still a year away from having a very good running game. Gray is better suited to run the offense this year and offset the inexperience at the line and make plays with his athleticism. Bring Nelson in next spring as a RSfr (though he will seem much more experienced) with a very good running game and a better arsenal at WR.

 

[GreasyGopher]

in fact, i came on here saying that if there was a better qb on the team then gray should play wr and that person should play qb. others assumed that this was implying that nelson is better than gray. i don't know who's better, but chances are that gray is. i did have a quibble with the truism that freshmen should always be redshirted. you might be confusing my comparison of philip nelson to adam weber with the former assertion. that's understandable.

here's what i have said so far. gray has been no better than an average big 10 qb. the team might be better with gray at wr and someone else at qb. those are opinions and could very well be wrong. that's why i italicized might.

my major malfunction is when people become so adamant about a certain situation (in this case, gray being the starter next fall) that they talk themselves into believing that they are right and anyone who disagrees is wrong when the situation does not lend itself to a conclusion. i know that i could be wrong, but i'm not afraid to put my opinion out there. you feel as though you are right and because of that you need to know that i am wrong. so you only hear what you want to hear.

After looking back at what you have said. I think you're a little confused. I say a true freshman isn't prepared to take the starting job from an incumbent senior and you bring up a redshirt freshman winning an open QB job over marginal upperclassmen. I make the mistake of trying to explain the difference between the experience Weber gained as a redshirt, albeit in a different system, compared to Nelson as a true freshman and you try to tell me Nelson wouldn't have benefitted from being in the program last fall. Somewhere in there you try to compare people hoping for Gray to play after Weber struggled and possibly even regressed during his 2nd and 3rd years as the starting QB to calling for a true freshman to replace a player who showed significant improvement in his first year as the starting QB after practicing exclusively at wide receiver the year before.

My point still stands a true freshman is not mentally or physically prepared to take the starting QB job at a BCS school from an incumbent senior QB. If a QB were to beat out Gray this year the only possibility in my mind is Shortell. The chances of that a minimal. Also, if you really do believe Nelson wouldn't have benefitted from being here last fall take a look at Shortell. There have been rave reviews of his progression this spring. Now, I know Shortell didn't redshirt but Gray was the starter the majority of the year. So the majority of Shortell's experience late last year was in practice, meetings and in the film room.

Now, if you want to compare Nelson to Weber's ascent to starting QB, do it next year at this time when the situation are more aligned.

 

[GreasyGopher]

i wish i could draw a graph.

i agree that adam was better for having been with the team longer.

i also think that philip would be farther along if he had been with the team since last fall.

where we disagree is a) the amount of difference that exists between a player who shows up in fall compared to the player who shows up in spring and b) the fact that philip might be further along than adam was when he matriculated. it is conceivable that nelson next fall will be as prepared as weber was in 2007. that is not to say he should start. these are just two opinions that i think are viable.

Ok, I'm glad you changed your tune on the first two points but there's one factor you're leaving out that make the two situations different. Marqueis Gray. He is the incumbent QB. Adam Weber won an open QB job to replace a graduated senior. His competition for that job was subpar. Also, it is very possible Nelson is as good now as Weber was when he was first named the starter but I'm willing to bet Weber wouldn't have won that starting job if it would have occurred his first year on campus.

 

[Uffda]

Nelson is a Prospect Who is Complete Package

IMO Pryor is not a very good QB but a good athelete better describes him. Nelson will be a better QB than Pryor, already is.

Pryor was not a very consistent passer during his career at Ohio St. Phillip Nelson is a prospect who has all of the tools to be a great, consistent QB.
1) He can pass very well with consistency so far.
2) He shows adaptability at making plays if the 1st option is not there.
3) He can run the ball if he needs to escape pass rush.
4) He can scramble to avoid the pass rush while still looking down field and buying time to throw.
5) He seems to show calmness during the scrimmages so far.
6) He proved his leadership skills last year when he committed early on and was in my opinion the anchor who the other in state recruits were impressed by and motivated by during their recruiting process.

If and when the coaching staff decides to start him, I will trust their judgement when their right time is.
I also defend Pat Nelson's right to speak his mind freely. I met him and he is a very astute judge of football talent. He doesn't come across as anything but a proud Dad (He should be) who is a very big fan of Gopher football. He is a down to earth guy who is very authentic. He is not openly pushing for Gray to move to WR. He is just a big fan like we all are.

 

[MinnMarchDTF]

Regardless, I'm glad Gray and Nelson are on our team. The fact we're even excited about the QB position is positive for the future.

 

[balds]

Gray has done everything he can to make the Gophers better, and is extremely popular with teammates. He has worked very hard to learn the WR position, and to "re-learn" the QB position. It is my assumption that after all that hard work, moving him or demoting might not sit very well with many members of this team, especially the upper-classmen.

I love Phillip Nelson, but barring any injury or other odd factor, believe he should red-shirt. To go along with his talent, he has a huge opportunity to utilize his RS season plus the extra spring. I think he could be a legit top 5 B1G QB his RS FR. season.

 

[highwayman]

Gray has done everything he can to make the Gophers better, and is extremely popular with teammates. He has worked very hard to learn the WR position, and to "re-learn" the QB position. It is my assumption that after all that hard work, moving him or demoting might not sit very well with many members of this team, especially the upper-classmen.

I love Phillip Nelson, but barring any injury or other odd factor, believe he should red-shirt. To go along with his talent, he has a huge opportunity to utilize his RS season plus the extra spring. I think he could be a legit top 5 B1G QB his RS FR. season.

And I'll add lots of gas to the fire by saying IT IS CRAZY to play Nelson at QB and Gray at WR. Flat out CRAZY.

Gray might get 60 receptions at WR at best, maybe 8-10 TDs at best.

He will get 450 passing attempts and rushes at QB. He will account for 20-30 TDs. He will account for 2500-3000 yards.

CRAZY TALK.

 

[STPGopher]

Gray has done everything he can to make the Gophers better, and is extremely popular with teammates. He has worked very hard to learn the WR position, and to "re-learn" the QB position. It is my assumption that after all that hard work, moving him or demoting might not sit very well with many members of this team, especially the upper-classmen.

I love Phillip Nelson, but barring any injury or other odd factor, believe he should red-shirt. To go along with his talent, he has a huge opportunity to utilize his RS season plus the extra spring. I think he could be a legit top 5 B1G QB his RS FR. season.

This + eleventy bazillion.

Seriously, What you said is IMHO dead on! MG brings much more to the table than JUST his ability as a QB. Yes he is developing to a very good QB. More than QB he is developing into a great leader. I highly doubt that anyone could become the leader MarQueis is already by fall camp.