Gophers open as a 3 point dog

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Frost called some great plays in the second half when Nebraska outscored Michigan - a real contrast with the vanilla stuff we see from the Gopher staff. To win, Gophers have to play as well as they did against Ohio State and Colorado. Anything less and they could lose by a wide margin.
 

Plato said:
To repeat, the line is mostly set by the Sagarin rankings then changes as the bets come in to get the ideal situation for the betting sites, a 50/50 distribution of bets, so the sites take all of the cut per bet.
Given the absence of a known running back for MN, the experienced defensive front for NE, the vulnerable DBs for MN and NE, and the fact the Martinez is far better than Morgan I would take NE at -3.
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Martinez far better than Morgan is just ridiculous.
 

gophernut1 said:
Minnesota trying to reclaim magic of 2019 vs Neb trying to reclaim magic of 1980's - Advantage MN
QB in 2021 - Advantage Neb
Competition in 2021 - Neb MI, OK and MN - OSU, CO - Push

Bottom line I think this games boils down to can MN be mentally prepared for this game? Think of everything they have been through in the last 4 months.

QB - Loses father to cancer
Star RB - devastating injury and lost for year.
Backup RB - devastating injury - potentially life-threatening and defiantly enough to hospitalize someone for six days.

I think if MN comes out ready to play and OC has a game plan that has Morgan passing the ball 50% of the time we win. However, if we come out flat I don't think we recover. I think this team is emotionally on the edge and doesn't have a playmaker who can raise everyone up. I am hoping our coaches will come up with a game plan to take over this game, but will be interesting to see what they come out with. I think the first 10 minutes will be very telling.
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Don't be surprised if Nebraska starts flat. Last Saturday was a Superbowl for them.
 


So correct me if I am wrong but isn't this the perfect point spread for us? Pretty sure the last 2 times we were 3 point underdogs things turned out pretty well against Colorado and Purdue.
 


Ozzy&Ray said:
Only question with your post… push in competition? Oklahoma for them and Ohio State for us could be a push, but comparing Colorado to Michigan? That is not a push.
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The fact we won by 30 and they lost is the only reason for a push. Plus, we have the Purdue win, which gives us 2 solid wins and all Neb has is the NW win and only bad loss is to Ill vs ours is Bowling Green. Bottom line is I don't think what they done or what we have done is all that impressive.
 

MNVCGUY said:
So correct me if I am wrong but isn't this the perfect point spread for us? Pretty sure the last 2 times we were 3 point underdogs things turned out pretty well against Colorado and Purdue.
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I just hope by kickoff we are not 30-point favorites.
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
Yep! At worst they're at the same level and at best Morgan ahead given the total body of work!
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Why would I care about the total body of work, when the great parts of that body are two seasons ago with two NFL receivers, at least one NFL running back and a different OC -- all no longer here?
 




Ozzy&Ray said:
Only question with your post… push in competition? Oklahoma for them and Ohio State for us could be a push, but comparing Colorado to Michigan? That is not a push.
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How about Bowling Green vs. Michigan? Just trying to help ...
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Why not?
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As mentioned above -- its not relevant to this game. Morgan is nowhere near his "total body of work". With that said Nebraska lives by Martinez and they have lately has been dying by him. If we can't keep it close his proclivity to turn the ball over late can't hurt them.
 

It should be a good game. We love to shit on the Huskers in the Frost era but they have improved considerably since the start of the season. We have the potential to be a really good team but inconsistencies in O line play, unimaginative play calling, and key injuries have plagued us. I pray that Fleck and staff can come up with a decent game plan and get the boys pumped up for this one.
 

noamfromm said:
As mentioned above -- its not relevant to this game. Morgan is nowhere near his "total body of work". With that said Nebraska lives by Martinez and they have lately has been dying by him. If we can't keep it close his proclivity to turn the ball over late can't hurt them.
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The last 3 or 4 games are relevant but not 5 and beyond?
 




Martinez, even with his mistakes, is playing the best of his career.
Their offense is better than functional. Nebraska has looked better the last few weeks and they should be favored.

I would take Nebraska in this bet.
I think the beaten down MN team has problems running the ball and Tanner will press.

Nebraska gets an early 14-3 lead or so by half. One TD on a nice Nebraska drive, another off a turnover, or a quick 3 and out followed by a bad punt, or a nice return which sets up a short field.

Third Quarter, Nebraska tacks on two more scores to go up 24-3.

Late third quarter, early fourth, Gophers make a push to get back into it. Cut lead to 24-6, then 24-12.
Halfway through the 4th, Gophers fumble or throw an int which gives Neb as easy TD to go up 31-12.
Gophers score a meaningless garbage TD and Kramer converts a 2 pt to make it 31-20.

Onside kick fails. Nebby wins. Scott Frosts #3 best victory at Nebraska.
 

Face The Facts said:
Martinez, even with his mistakes, is playing the best of his career.
Their offense is better than functional. Nebraska has looked better the last few weeks and they should be favored.

I would take Nebraska in this bet.
I think the beaten down MN team has problems running the ball and Tanner will press.
Nebraska gets an early 14-3 lead or so by half. One TD on a nice Nebraska drive, another off a turnover, or a quick 3 and out followed by a bad punt, or a nice return which sets up a short field.

Third Quarter, Nebraska tacks on two more scores to go up 24-3.
Late third quarter, early fourth, Gophers make a push to get back into it. Cut lead to 24-6, then 24-12.
Halfway through the 4th, Gophers fumble or throw an int which gives Neb as easy TD to go up 31-12.
Gophers score a meaningless garbage TD and Kramer converts a 2 pt to make it 31-20.

Onside kick fails. Nebby wins. Scott Frosts #3 best victory at Nebraska.
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I hope I don't have to face these facts
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
Martinez far better than Morgan is just ridiculous.
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I realize that statistics aren't everything. And for both QBs, there is the career-long body of work. But if you look at this season, which is the fair indicator about how this week's game might go, Martinez gets the edge IMHO. If our defense falters, and this game turns out to be a QB duel, we have an uphill battle.

Stat's below are a bit misleading because Nebbie has played 7 games and we have played 5, but Martinez--who is a true "dual threat" QB--has had a far greater individual influence than Tanner this season. Of course, this might mean that Nebbie's offensive fortunes depend almost entirely on how Martinez plays, which can also be a vulnerability:

PASSING: Martinez: 118-178 passing for 66.3% and 1,482 yards. 11 passing TDs, 5 INTs.
247 yds/game passing average. 151 QB efficiency rating. Morgan: 47-90 passing for 55.2% and 709 yards. 4 passing TDs, 2 INTs. 141.8 yds/game passing average. 128.6 QB efficiency rating.

RUSHING (includes sacks): Martinez: 88 attempts for 576 gain and 126 loss = NET 450 yards. 5.1yds/attempt; 64.29 yds/game. Rushing TDs = 10. Longest run = 75 yds. Morgan: 26 attempts for 86 gain and 65 loss = NET 21 yards. 0.8yds/attempt; 4.2 yds/game. Rushing TDs = 0. Longest run = 18 yds.

As has been the case throughout Frost's tenure, the key to beating Nebraska is to: (1) contain/spy on Martinez, so he can't run all over you, and (2) to somehow fluster Martinez so that his passing accuracy declines, esp. on long throws. Our defense will be the key in this match up. Special teams will also be a key. Giving Nebraska's high-powered offense short fields is a real problem. But Nebraska is mistake prone, so long fields, and multi-play drives, are a weak point for them.

Of course, even if our defense and STs play great, we will need something better, and more balanced, than our uni-dimensional, highly predictable Bowling Green style offensive game plan. I am really looking forward to what our coaches come up with for our offensive strategy going forward w/o Mo and Potts. Nebbie utilizes RBs, TEs and WRs in its passing game; interested to see whether we perhaps begin to utilize all our receiving weapons, as well, for the first time this season.
 
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noamfromm said:
Are you being intentionally obtuse? I said the great parts of his body of work are two years behind him with NFL/All B1G players surrounding him that we don't have. I am not sure why you are using the arbitrary divisions of 3/4 and 5 games.
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Is that a prediction?
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Is that a prediction?
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Just a fact statement. I was making no predictions about what he can add to his body of work, merely commenting on the gulf between Ciarocca Morgan and Sanford Morgan. But if I had to predict, I would say that the greatest part of his body of work is behind him.
 

noamfromm said:
As mentioned above -- its not relevant to this game. Morgan is nowhere near his "total body of work". With that said Nebraska lives by Martinez and they have lately has been dying by him. If we can't keep it close his proclivity to turn the ball over late can't hurt them.
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Yup.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
I realize that statistics aren't everything. And for both QBs, there is the career-long body of work. But if you look at this season, which is the fair indicator about how this week's game might go, Martinez gets the edge IMHO. If our defense falters, and this game turns out to be a QB duel, we have an uphill battle.

Stat's below are a bit misleading because Nebbie has played 7 games and we have played 5, but Martinez--who is a true "dual threat" QB--has had a far greater individual influence than Tanner this season. Of course, this might mean that Nebbie's offensive fortunes depend almost entirely on how Martinez plays, which can also be a vulnerability:

PASSING: Martinez: 118-178 passing for 66.3% and 1,482 yards. 11 passing TDs, 5 INTs.
247 yds/game passing average. 151 QB efficiency rating. Morgan: 47-90 passing for 55.2% and 709 yards. 4 passing TDs, 2 INTs. 141.8 yds/game passing average. 128.6 QB efficiency rating.

RUSHING (includes sacks): Martinez: 88 attempts for 576 gain and 126 loss = NET 450 yards. 5.1yds/attempt; 64.29 yds/game. Rushing TDs = 10. Longest run = 75 yds. Morgan: 26 attempts for 86 gain and 65 loss = NET 21 yards. 0.8yds/attempt; 4.2 yds/game. Rushing TDs = 0. Longest run = 18 yds.

As has been the case throughout Frost's tenure, the key to beating Nebraska is to: (1) contain/spy on Martinez, so he can't run all over you, and (2) to fluster Martinez with rushes and/or blitzes so that his passing accuracy declines, esp. on long throws. Our defense will be the key in this match up. Of course, we will need something better, and more balanced, than our uni-dimensional, highly predictable Bowling Green style offensive game plan, even if our defense has a great game. I am really looking forward to what our coaches come up with for our offensive strategy going forward w/o Mo and Potts. Nebbie utilizes RBs, TEs and WRs in its passing game; interested to see whether we perhaps begin to utilize all our receiving weapons, as well, for the first time this season.
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Conventional wisdom would seem that imply that this is the case -- but Martinez (as rated by PFF in 2020) was the 16th highest rated QB when under pressure but 110th in a clean pocket.
 

noamfromm said:
Conventional wisdom would seem that imply that this is the case -- but Martinez (as rated by PFF in 2020) was the 16th highest rated QB when under pressure but 110th in a clean pocket.
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Did not know that; changed a few words in my comment(!). Maybe tight coverage is more key than the rush as to Martinez? Does make sense. He throws well on the run when chased from the pocket (instead of being sacked). Issue with tight coverage is that he often just pulls down the ball and runs, usually for good yardage. Somehow we've got to get him flustered and influence his passing accuracy, which seems to be his Achilles Heel. I think the Gophs have the potential to disrupt him. Will leave the tactics to Rossi & Co., of course.
 
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+3 seems low. Really low. Nebraska has lost to three, 6-0 teams on basically the last drives of games. They've destroyed their other opponents by an average of about 45-6 and then there was Illinois. Week 1 games are really hard to prepare and be ready for. All teams have flaws, but being down to our 3rd RB and questions at WR, +3 seems low.

Maybe it has to do with NE coming off an emotional loss and traveling to play their first 11am game in weeks.
 


Stop and ponder for a moment... the Gophers are underdogs to a team with a LOSING record and the game is at home.

That can pretty much sum up what Vegas and the world of college football thinks of the Minnesota Gophers.

This is a must win for the program.
 

noamfromm said:
Why would I care about the total body of work, when the great parts of that body are two seasons ago with two NFL receivers, at least one NFL running back and a different OC -- all no longer here?
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Well Nebraska is 3-4 and 2 of the losses are literally martinez giving the game away with turnovers.

I will say this, last year martinez was super underrated. Should’ve never been benched: this year he is overrated. Big yards guy…low points and wins guy.


he is the same quarterback both years but the majority of casual fans have swung from saying he sucks to saying he is a good QB. In reality, he is a pretty average P5 QB
 

Boomtime said:
Stop and ponder for a moment... the Gophers are underdogs to a team with a LOSING record and the game is at home.

That can pretty much sum up what Vegas and the world of college football thinks of the Minnesota Gophers.

This is a must win for the program.
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Must win or else what?
 

Boomtime said:
Stop and ponder for a moment... the Gophers are underdogs to a team with a LOSING record and the game is at home.

That can pretty much sum up what Vegas and the world of college football thinks of the Minnesota Gophers.

This is a must win for the program.
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Records are what get coaches fired, but they are not a good way to compare teams. As I said above, Nebraska has lost to three, 6-0 teams on the last drive and won their 3 games by a 45-6 average. We have lost to a 2-4 Bowling Green team and are missing our top two RB's and our WR position has been a mess. Add the OL under performing.
 

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