Gophers open +1.5 at Maryland, line quickly shifts to +3

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Unregistered User said:
Casinos take 10% of every bet. Winners get it back, losers don't.

When I'm at a casino and place a bet, I'll bet something like $110 and if I win, I get $210 (my $100+10% juice+$100 in winnings).

The "ideal" for casinos (as far as cash flow planning, etc) is to have 50% bet on each team, and they can count on making 5% of the total bet to pay for their services.
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"Vig" is the term you're referring to.
 

Gophers_4life said:
One small question: I thought if you bet on the underdog it’s simply 100% payout (30k on 30k bet), while if you bet on the favorite it’s 90% payout (27k on 30k). But your example is 110% payout for the underdog? Not a huge deal.
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It's not common to have a 1:1 payout on a spread, regardless if it's the underdog or favorite. Bookmakers almost always price in the payout to be slightly less than even money. Generally -110 (bet $1 returns $.91 plus original stake) but you will also frequently see -115 or -105. This is generally true for pregame spreads.
 

Gopher07 said:
The odds are always 10/11, underdog or favorite. So Gophers win with $70k, casino pays out $63k to winners (in addition to those winners getting their $70k back). Maryland wins with $30k, casino pays out $27k to winners (in addition to those winners getting their $30k back). Sorry if that wasn't clear from my examples.



And that's why actuaries make the big bucks :)
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Ah, the 63k I was thinking 30k + 33k, I misread!

So then what’s the -10 versus even with competition between books? I thought that just applied to betting on the favorite (-10 being $110 bet to win $100, EV being $100 bet to win $100).
 

webst245 said:
It's not common to have a 1:1 payout on a spread, regardless if it's the underdog or favorite. Bookmakers almost always price in the payout to be slightly less than even money. Generally -110 (bet $1 returns $.91 plus original stake) but you will also frequently see -115 or -105. This is generally true for pregame spreads.
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I have seen even in some of the Gophers lines so far this year. But I guess the answer to my question is that the payout always applies the same to both sides of the bet.
 

Gophers_4life said:
I have seen even in some of the Gophers lines so far this year. But I guess the answer to my question is that the payout always applies the same to both sides of the bet.
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No. Also, you are strictly looking at point spread betting in the above discussion where teams are giving or getting points to cover the spread.

There is also money line betting where you bet on if a team will win or lose. For example, the Gophers are +115 on the money line and Maryland is -135.

Bet 100 on Gophers to win 115 or Bet 135 on the Terps to win 100.
 









MyBookie has Gophers+1.
I don't understand how anyone can look at this game and not favor the Gophers.
Maryland looked like absolute crap last week.

I suppose this is what happens when you haven't won a road game in over a year.
 
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hello-world said:
MyBookie has Gophers+1.
I don't understand how anyone can look at this game and not favor the Gophers.
Maryland looked like absolute crap last week.

I suppose this is what happens when you haven't won a road game in over a year.
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Weren't they missing 3 starting offensive lineman last week that they are getting back? Both tackles and a guard.
 



Some Day...Maybe said:
Weren't they missing 3 starting offensive lineman last week that they are getting back? Both tackles and a guard.
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Will they be back for this game? Their offense got shut out by a team that lost to Buffalo and Villanova.
 

I'm seeing Minnesota +1.5 on most betting sites, +2.0 on only one betting site. That tells me Gophers would be -0.5 on neutral field.
 

hello-world said:
MyBookie has Gophers+1.
I don't understand how anyone can look at this game and not favor the Gophers.
Maryland looked like absolute crap last week.

I suppose this is what happens when you haven't won a road game in over a year.
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Agree, but even average teams rarely play horribly on consecutive weeks. I would be careful betting on the Gophers this week. That being said, Go Gophers!
 

hello-world said:
MyBookie has Gophers+1.
I don't understand how anyone can look at this game and not favor the Gophers.
Maryland looked like absolute crap last week.

I suppose this is what happens when you haven't won a road game in over a year.
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You have roughly 1/3 of Minnesota's roster playing their first true road game, and you expect them to be favored? Yeah, Maryland looked pretty abysmal last week from what I saw, but it goes 1 of 2 ways for the Terps this week. The report on the Durkin/McNair situation comes out Friday, and Durkin may very well be out of a job. They either fold in the tent with a cloud over the program, or they fight like hell for their fallen teammate.

The Gophers offensive line has to play better, especially in pass protection. You just never know how a bunch of freshman will react to their first true road game. I think it comes down to the final possession, and hopefully a Carpenter game-winning FG. I will be pleasantly surprised if the Gophers win by more than one score.
 

NWMetroGopherFan said:
They either fold in the tent with a cloud over the program, or they fight like hell for their fallen teammate.
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It's going to be the latter, at least this early in the season. Guaranteed.

And the remaining coaches are going to be fighting to show the new AD (hired in the summer) that they should be hired to replace Durkin. They'll rally the players to their cause, rally to the fallen teammate, etc. They're going to fight like hell.
 


I'm tremendously horrible at betting, so I don't do it.
But if I was a bettor, this is a game I wouldn't touch.
 

Face The Facts said:
I'm tremendously horrible at betting, so I don't do it.
But if I was a bettor, this is a game I wouldn't touch.
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So let me get this straight:

You're bad at it, so you don't do it. But even if you did it, you wouldn't ... do it?

:D

Channeling my inner Lou Costello.

JTG
 


rockford said:
So let me get this straight:

You're bad at it, so you don't do it. But even if you did it, you wouldn't ... do it?

:D

Channeling my inner Lou Costello.

JTG
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In shorter words:

If I did bet on college football games, this one I wouldn't.
 


That makes NO sense to me. The spread bets are still sitting 61-39 in favor of Minnesota. http://www.vegasinsider.com/[email protected]/date/9-22-18/linechanges/y

If bets weren't coming in on Maryland at -1, why would people suddenly bet on them at -2.5 ???

The only explanation I see is that they (the books) think Maryland is going to win by 3+ points and are trying to push people into betting on Minnesota.
 

If the game opened Minnesota -2.5 bettors would have slammed Maryland all day. It's tough not to take a home dog in what's essentially a toss-up game. There is a lot that goes into setting a line.
 

Also.. not sure what % you are looking at exactly but that could just be bets placed on each side and not necessarily money wagered.
 

AtTheLibrary said:
Also.. not sure what % you are looking at exactly but that could just be bets placed on each side and not necessarily money wagered.
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yep. All it takes is one 10k bet that cancels out 100 $100 ones in Vegas' eyes
 

webst245 said:
If the game opened Minnesota -2.5 bettors would have slammed Maryland all day. It's tough not to take a home dog in what's essentially a toss-up game. There is a lot that goes into setting a line.
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It's Maryland -2.5 though ... and has always been Maryland advantage, varying from -1 to -3 at times over the week.


AtTheLibrary said:
Also.. not sure what % you are looking at exactly but that could just be bets placed on each side and not necessarily money wagered.
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upnorthkid said:
yep. All it takes is one 10k bet that cancels out 100 $100 ones in Vegas' eyes
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I'm thinking that the money is what matters to the books, not number of bets. So it's likely the money. http://www.vegasinsider.com/[email protected]/date/9-22-18/linechanges/y
 

Now the "Money line" trend is interesting! I think someone in the thread said that was betting on the winner of the game straight off the score (not the spread).

It has shifted from -115 Maryland -105 Gophers, to -135 Maryland +115 Gophers! I think that means a $100 winning bet on the Gophs to win the game gets you $115 winnings, as opposed to only $65 winnings on a Maryland winning bet. (if I did that right)
 

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