Gophers open +1.5 at Maryland, line quickly shifts to +3

Donate To GopherHole
Canada has been the acting head coach while DJD has been on leave. He’s new to the program. I can’t imagine he’d be part of the layoffs. Perhaps the other coordinators and position coaches would fall? They already canned the S&C trainer.
 

If Durkin is fired it will be interesting to see if they make Canada HC with a long term contract for continuity/recruiting reasons. Jury on Canada seems to be out after the loss last week. I believe they will need to make some sort of decision/statement relatively soon (assuming DJ is gone) about Canada to avoid a lost recruiting year. I’m not sure he’s HC material based on the little I’ve seen of and read of him.
 

This season is not lame duck for remaining Maryland staff, by any means. They're fighting to prove they should be hired permanently, to take over. Canada did a great job rallying players behind him and beating a legit top 25 Texas team (proven last week, they'll just need more wins to get back in with lazy voters).

This is a game they likely view that they NEED to have, with the Big Ten East being so stacked. They got caught, thinking Temple would just fall over and play dead, and weren't any good. They'll be pissed they let that game get away, and will be ready for us.

Gonna be a tough fight.
 


fmlizard said:
Sharps also come in hard at the end. Last week the line drifted toward Miami Hydroxide all week until shifting to the Gophers on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Miami Hydroxide really likes to keep things basic.
 


Sh!t.

Just saw a tweet on Maryland FB Bleacher Report that says both starting Off Tackles that missed the Temple game with injuries, along with their 2nd string RB, will all be ready to go for the Minnesota game Saturday.

I still like the Gophers, but I wouldn't bet the game in light of reading this.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Sh!t.

Just saw a tweet on Maryland FB Bleacher Report that says both starting Off Tackles that missed the Temple game with injuries, along with their 2nd string RB, will all be ready to go for the Minnesota game Saturday.

I still like the Gophers, but I wouldn't bet the game in light of reading this.
Click to expand...

Have to assume Maryland will score points despite their mediocre showing vs Temple. They can be a dangerous team. Luckily their defense looks to be vulnerable. Can we take advantage? This will likely be a very close game.
 

Just looking at the stats from last year and I was surprised to see that Maryland really killed us on the ground. In my mind I thought it was GoldenSchlager, I mean Bortenschlager who is still a Junior on their team, that sliced and diced us, but it must have been some key late passes that I am recalling.
Maryland rushed for 262 yards to our 82. Their yards per carry was 5.6 to the Gophers 2.6.
Minnesota had two turnovers vs Maryland zero.
 




Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Sh!t.

Just saw a tweet on Maryland FB Bleacher Report that says both starting Off Tackles that missed the Temple game with injuries, along with their 2nd string RB, will all be ready to go for the Minnesota game Saturday.

I still like the Gophers, but I wouldn't bet the game in light of reading this.
Click to expand...

Weren’t they missing a starting offensive guard too?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
I thought they wanted it to be about 50/50? Or am I misinterpreting?
Click to expand...

Not an expert on booking, but yes I think ideally they want the money to be split evenly. Then whoever wins is paid by whoever loses, roughly speaking (plus a small cut on every bet by the book). However, I think most books will "pick up" the bets that don't get paired with an opposing bet, using house money.
 

Still have 88% of the spread bets taking the Gophers at +3. Most betters so far either think that Maryland is going to win by a very small number, or that the Gophers are going to win.

Where are the Maryland bets??? Everyone got scared off by Temple, I guess??
 

Gophers_4life said:
Still have 88% of the spread bets taking the Gophers at +3. Most betters so far either think that Maryland is going to win by a very small number, or that the Gophers are going to win.

Where are the Maryland bets??? Everyone got scared off by Temple, I guess??
Click to expand...

And since the line hasn't appreciably shifted (I think it's down to -2.5 in some books) it makes me think Vegas sees something most bettors don't. Makes me nervous.
 



Gopher07 said:
And since the line hasn't appreciably shifted (I think it's down to -2.5 in some books) it makes me think Vegas sees something most bettors don't. Makes me nervous.
Click to expand...

I know very little about sports betting - is it possible that there just aren't many bets coming in due to some uncertainty? And that's the reason for lack of movement?
 

Word said:
I know very little about sports betting - is it possible that there just aren't many bets coming in due to some uncertainty? And that's the reason for lack of movement?
Click to expand...

I will also have to defer to experts here. But my layman's intuition tells me that they'd want to even out the bets, by shifting the line to make it more favorable to Maryland bets.

Unless it is just known that the action is coming late on this one? Waiting for the announcement on Friday?
 

Gopher07 said:
And since the line hasn't appreciably shifted (I think it's down to -2.5 in some books) it makes me think Vegas sees something most bettors don't. Makes me nervous.
Click to expand...

Should make you excited, right? The house seems to be pretty confident that the Gophers are going to win outright.
 

My idea of gambling is wearing a Tomi Lahren shirt at UNION Restaurant.
 


dpodoll68 said:
Should make you excited, right? The house seems to be pretty confident that the Gophers are going to win outright.
Click to expand...

I would think otherwise, if the money is coming in big on the Gophers to cover and Vegas is holding the line steady, it means Vegas thinks they're gonna take a bunch of money from the ~90% of people betting on Minnesota, and pay out small to the group that's betting on Maryland, because they feel like they know something the general betting public doesn't know or isn't considering. That is, they're feeling pretty confident that Maryland is going to win.

If the house was confident the Gophers would win outright, we'd see the line shifting in the Gophers' favor to even out the betting and protect the house.

At least, that's my interpretation. I know next to nothing about how oddsmakers operate in actuality.
 

Gopher07 said:
I would think otherwise, if the money is coming in big on the Gophers to cover and Vegas is holding the line steady, it means Vegas thinks they're gonna take a bunch of money from the ~90% of people betting on Minnesota, and pay out small to the group that's betting on Maryland, because they feel like they know something the general betting public doesn't know or isn't considering. That is, they're feeling pretty confident that Maryland is going to win.

If the house was confident the Gophers would win outright, we'd see the line shifting in the Gophers' favor to even out the betting and protect the house.

At least, that's my interpretation. I know next to nothing about how oddsmakers operate in actuality.
Click to expand...

You're correct - I read it totally backwards.
 

Gopher07 said:
I would think otherwise, if the money is coming in big on the Gophers to cover and Vegas is holding the line steady, it means Vegas thinks they're gonna take a bunch of money from the ~90% of people betting on Minnesota, and pay out small to the group that's betting on Maryland, because they feel like they know something the general betting public doesn't know or isn't considering. That is, they're feeling pretty confident that Maryland is going to win.

If the house was confident the Gophers would win outright, we'd see the line shifting in the Gophers' favor to even out the betting and protect the house.

At least, that's my interpretation. I know next to nothing about how oddsmakers operate in actuality.
Click to expand...

So here is really where I show my ignorance (and hoping to learn!): I thought books just look to pair up opposing betters, while taking a small cut of the action on every bet. NOT that they were looking to take on betters, using their own (house) money.

Your post makes sense if it actually is the latter case ... where each book is taking on the betters with their own money. That could be true. But my argument for why it wouldn't be true is this: what if the betters were 50-50? Then the house wouldn't make any money ... they'd use their winnings from beating half the betters, to pay off the other half of the betters to whom they lost.


Very willing to learn here! I please ignorance
 

Gophers_4life said:
So here is really where I show my ignorance (and hoping to learn!): I thought books just look to pair up opposing betters, while taking a small cut of the action on every bet. NOT that they were looking to take on betters, using their own (house) money.

Your post makes sense if it actually is the latter case ... where each book is taking on the betters with their own money. That could be true. But my argument for why it wouldn't be true is this: what if the betters were 50-50? Then the house wouldn't make any money ... they'd use their winnings from beating half the betters, to pay off the other half of the betters to whom they lost.


Very willing to learn here! I please ignorance
Click to expand...

Casinos take 10% of every bet. Winners get it back, losers don't.

When I'm at a casino and place a bet, I'll bet something like $110 and if I win, I get $210 (my $100+10% juice+$100 in winnings).

The "ideal" for casinos (as far as cash flow planning, etc) is to have 50% bet on each team, and they can count on making 5% of the total bet to pay for their services.
 

Unregistered User said:
Casinos take 10% of every bet. Winners get it back, losers don't.

When I'm at a casino and place a bet, I'll bet something like $110 and if I win, I get $210 (my $100+10% juice+$100 in winnings).

The "ideal" for casinos (as far as cash flow planning, etc) is to have 50% bet on each team, and they can count on making 5% of the total bet to pay for their services.
Click to expand...

Juice referring to the extra $10 to make a $100 bet on the favorite? Or is that something else?

So let's say the game ends up with 70-30 people betting on the Gophers. Say Gophers lose. The winning 30 get paid off using 30 of the 70 from the losers, and then the book just keeps that "extra" 40 of the losing bets? Or do the winning 30 get to divy up ALL of the losing 70 (minus the book's take)?
 

Gophers_4life said:
Still have 88% of the spread bets taking the Gophers at +3. Most betters so far either think that Maryland is going to win by a very small number, or that the Gophers are going to win.

Where are the Maryland bets??? Everyone got scared off by Temple, I guess??
Click to expand...

That can simply mean that people are putting small beats on the Gophers while the people betting on Maryland are putting down much larger bets. Sportsbooks like the money to come in as close to even as possible.
 

stocker08 said:
That can simply mean that people are putting small beats on the Gophers while the people betting on Maryland are putting down much larger bets. Sportsbooks like the money to come in as close to even as possible.
Click to expand...

If the numbers I’m citing from that webpage refer to the percentage of total bets placed rather than percentage of total money placed, this could be a critical point.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Juice referring to the extra $10 to make a $100 bet on the favorite? Or is that something else?

So let's say the game ends up with 70-30 people betting on the Gophers. Say Gophers lose. The winning 30 get paid off using 30 of the 70 from the losers, and then the book just keeps that "extra" 40 of the losing bets? Or do the winning 30 get to divy up ALL of the losing 70 (minus the book's take)?
Click to expand...

A super simplified example:

Let's say $100,000 is bet against the spread on Minnesota/Maryland. Of that, 70% is bet on the Gophers to cover ($70,000), 30% is bet on Maryland ($30,000).

If Maryland wins, the casino pays those winners at a ratio of 10/11. So, the winners get their original cash back ($30,000), plus 90% ($27,000), while the losers get nothing back.

In this scenario, the casino has a net of $43,000: (the $70,000 bet on the Gophers) - ($27,000, the amount paid to the winners beyond their original $30,000).

In a scenario exactly like the above but where the split is 50/50, the casino has a net of $5,000: (the $50,000 bet on the Gophers) - ($45,000, the amount paid to the winners beyond their original $50k). As long as the money split is 50/50, the casino will always take in more than they lose.
 
Last edited:

Gopher07 said:
A super simplified example:

Let's say $100,000 is bet against the spread on Minnesota/Maryland. Of that, 70% is bet on the Gophers to cover ($70,000), 30% is bet on Maryland ($30,000).

If Maryland wins, the casino pays those winners at a ratio of 10/11. So, the winners get their original cash back ($30,000), plus 90% ($27,000), while the losers get nothing back.

In this scenario, the casino has a net of $43,000: (the $70,000 bet on the Gophers) - ($27,000, the amount paid to the winners beyond their original $30,000).

In a scenario exactly like the above but where the split is 50/50, the casino has a net of $5,000: (the $50,000 bet on the Gophers) - ($45,000, the amount paid to the winners beyond their original $50k). As long as the money split is 50/50, the casino will always take in more than they lose.
Click to expand...

Out of curiosity, cause I want to learn as well, what would happen in your first scenario (70/30) if the Gophers won?
 

swelna said:
Out of curiosity, cause I want to learn as well, what would happen in your first scenario (70/30) if the Gophers won?
Click to expand...

The casino would take a loss on the game. They'd take in $30,000 from the Maryland bettors and pay out $63,000 to the Minnesota winners.
 

G07 - awesome, thank you!!! This would seem to me that 88% of the spread total money is on the Gophers.

If the book really thinks Maryland is going to win by more than a FG, they might as well bump it up to +6 at least? Suck in more money on Gophers? I guess crazy things can happen.

One small question: I thought if you bet on the underdog it’s simply 100% payout (30k on 30k bet), while if you bet on the favorite it’s 90% payout (27k on 30k). But your example is 110% payout for the underdog? Not a huge deal.


This is an interesting game for the book. 50/50 bets minimize risk but also minimize reward. Lopsided bets are a big payday but also risk a big payout.
 

Gophers_4life said:
One small question: I thought if you bet on the underdog it’s simply 100% payout (30k on 30k bet), while if you bet on the favorite it’s 90% payout (27k on 30k). But your example is 110% payout for the underdog? Not a huge deal.
Click to expand...

The odds are always 10/11, underdog or favorite. So Gophers win with $70k, casino pays out $63k to winners (in addition to those winners getting their $70k back). Maryland wins with $30k, casino pays out $27k to winners (in addition to those winners getting their $30k back). Sorry if that wasn't clear from my examples.

Gophers_4life said:
This is an interesting game for the book. 50/50 bets minimize risk but also minimize reward. Lopsided bets are a big payday but also risk a big payout.
Click to expand...

And that's why actuaries make the big bucks :)
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom