Gophers in Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn's Final 3 - Decision coming Thursday at 10 AM

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jaymil said:
Correct. Crystal Ball is probably the wrong name for it. It's not really a prediction, it's more like an update on where a recruit stands at that point in time based on info these guys are getting from the player, coaches, etc. I think it's useful but definitely not something that should be taken very seriously.
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It's a weather vane.
 

Golden13 said:
The whole point of the crystal ball is for fans to see the most updated prediction to where a recruit is going. If it's a recruit like Whitehead, they may need to change the CB several times, to reflect the prediction in "real time". It seems a lot of fans are annoyed by it because the "experts" piggy back off each other's predictions and some fans (like GophinPitts) seem to prefer the experts make one final prediction and stick to it.
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That's a fair assessment. It wouldn't matter much, but they keep track of each person's prediction stats. It's meaningless to me if they all get the word that a commit is coming and they lock it in to get their "for sure" pick.

They do also keep an average days in advance stat, which does help to see who is the most "plugged in." That does help alleviate the piggybacking.
 

GopherInPittsburgh said:
They do also keep an average days in advance stat, which does help to see who is the most "plugged in." That does help alleviate the piggybacking.
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You really would need to look at what "predictions" the person has made. Each recruitment is different. Sometimes a kid has a few schools involved and there's great debate of where he's going. There are situations like Whitehead with St. John's and Seton Hall rumors flying around the day before he announces. Then, there are situations where it's pretty clear where a kid will most likely go for a long period of time, or situations where a "prediction" isn't made until there is a clear consensus or great information circulating.

Overall, the crystal ball is a marketing tool. If you want a quick update on where public information is leading people's thoughts it's probably a fine place to look. For great insight on a particular recruitment? There are a couple of guys who carry some weight, but most people on this message board could do just as well as most of the predictors on that cb website.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
You really would need to look at what "predictions" the person has made. Each recruitment is different. Sometimes a kid has a few schools involved and there's great debate of where he's going. There are situations like Whitehead with St. John's and Seton Hall rumors flying around the day before he announces. Then, there are situations where it's pretty clear where a kid will most likely go for a long period of time, or situations where a "prediction" isn't made until there is a clear consensus or great information circulating.

Overall, the crystal ball is a marketing tool. If you want a quick update on where public information is leading people's thoughts it's probably a fine place to look. For great insight on a particular recruitment? There are a couple of guys who carry some weight, but most people on this message board could do just as well as most of the predictors on that cb website.
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The guys with Minnesota connections are holding their own against Jerry Meyer.

Jerry Meyer: 54/76 - 71.05% - 19.93 average days correct

Kyle Goblirsch: 48/57 - 84.21% - 11.88 average days correct
Joe Funk: 31/40 - 77.5% - 17.16 days correct
Dan Owen: 5/7 - 71.43% 17.6 average days correct
Matt Humbert: 5/6 - 83.33% - 9.6 average days correct
Matt Gravett: 33/57 - 70.21% - 18.7 average days correct
 

RoyalGopher said:
The guys with Minnesota connections are holding their own against Jerry Meyer.
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Maybe, maybe not. Would need to look at who they've made "predictions" on. The percentages and average days just aren't apples to apples comparisons because of the uniqueness of each recruit. Now, if you went through and looked at the results for common predictions (i.e., a prediction was made by each person for the same recruit), then I suppose you have a decent comparison (between those people... but still not necessarily a 'quality of prediction capability' measurement).

You should do it! Take a look at where they match up and get us some numbers!!
 


Gopher Warrior said:
You really would need to look at what "predictions" the person has made. Each recruitment is different. Sometimes a kid has a few schools involved and there's great debate of where he's going. There are situations like Whitehead with St. John's and Seton Hall rumors flying around the day before he announces. Then, there are situations where it's pretty clear where a kid will most likely go for a long period of time, or situations where a "prediction" isn't made until there is a clear consensus or great information circulating.

Overall, the crystal ball is a marketing tool. If you want a quick update on where public information is leading people's thoughts it's probably a fine place to look. For great insight on a particular recruitment? There are a couple of guys who carry some weight, but most people on this message board could do just as well as most of the predictors on that cb website.
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Very true. It's hard to quantify with one overarching system.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Maybe, maybe not. Would need to look at who they've made "predictions" on. The percentages and average days just aren't apples to apples comparisons because of the uniqueness of each recruit. Now, if you went through and looked at the results for common predictions (i.e., a prediction was made by each person for the same recruit), then I suppose you have a decent comparison (between those people... but still not necessarily a 'quality of prediction capability' measurement).

You should do it! Take a look at where they match up and get us some numbers!!
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Yeah, that would be interesting. Maybe I'll do it this weekend.
 

RoyalGopher said:
The guys with Minnesota connections are holding their own against Jerry Meyer.

Jerry Meyer: 54/76 - 71.05% - 19.93 average days correct
Kyle Goblirsch: 48/57 - 84.21% - 11.88 average days correct
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So just for kicks.. took a look at some information. I only looked at basketball recruiting because I'm too ignorant on football recruiting to draw useful conclusions.

Meyer and Goblirsch ("KG") were both 15/20 for 75% on the two that both of them had predicted (another silly thing about looking at %'s and days correct is that it appears people can pick and choose who they want to predict on). Meyer had predicted all of the guys that KG did and with only a couple of exceptions had done so in advance of KG's picks.

KG's pick breakdown:
Prediction made within 24 hours of actual pick being entered: 5/6
Two days to a week: 5/5
More than a week, less than a month: 4/5
More than a month: 1/4

Avg days correct - approximately 9 days.
67% correct picks made within a week of actual
33% correct picks made within 24 hours of actual

Then you get down to the quality of some of the picks.. in that 4/5 figure for more than a week, less than a month... you've got a guy like Ulis. KG changed his pick to Kentucky once they offered.

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The only difference in KG's picks from Meyer's were: Whitehead (Meyer had SJU; KG correctly had SH) and Quentin Snider (Meyer correct had Illinois; KG had UCLA)


Meyer's avg days correct were around 19 days as compared to KG's ~9.

So.. at least for basketball recruiting (Meyer's forte), I think a quick look at the details leads you to a different conclusion than a just look at the overview/summary stats might.
 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Today is the day..smh wow ... <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23GodIsGood&src=hash">#GodIsGood</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Humbled&src=hash">#Humbled</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Blessed&src=hash">#Blessed</a></p>— tumtum_toofast@nairn (@lourawlsnairn) <a href="https://twitter.com/lourawlsnairn/statuses/383210966617321472">September 26, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Go Gophers!!
 



His decision will be announced at 9:30 instead of 10.
 


Tum Tum to Michigan State. Another thread bites the dust...
 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Tum Tum (<a href="https://twitter.com/lourawlsnairn">@lourawlsnairn</a>) chooses Michigan State University! <a href="http://t.co/rBcAKQpqbQ">pic.twitter.com/rBcAKQpqbQ</a></p>— Sunrise Basketball (@sunrisehoops) <a href="https://twitter.com/sunrisehoops/statuses/383243114770472960">September 26, 2013</a></blockquote>
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He's going to be a nice player.

Tum tum, we barely knew ya.
 


This is so big fish / little fish. Indiana comes in late and dances with our date, and then MSU comes in even later and dances with IU's date. Crean must be talking to himself as much as any of us are.
 


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