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The first Coaches Poll is out and we start the year at 34th. How will this compare to where we finish the year after bowl season?
Shower thoughts:
When you finish higher in the polls, you actually have a lower number.
The TCU game is unfortunate. Be careful what you wish for. Jerry should have just played UNC. They were one year behind us with a coaching transition. The B1G did us no favors with the first schedules of the new divisions by scheduling both of the tradition powers. We have a very tough schedule and it will probably be like last year, a better team but the same record. Need to get the Axe.
Granted, I am a Gopher homer, but I envision everything coming together this year. I don't think tOSU beats us twice. 2 loses worst case going into the bowl game. Bowl game depends on the draw.
Can't see all this optimism with a brutal schedule, Cobb and Maxx gone, and a 51% passer with rookie receivers. Six or seven wins with the 7th maybe being the bowl game.
2 surprise wins and 1 surprise loss and we are only at 30? By my count the only surprise wins would be beating tcu, tOSU, or wisconsin. I wouldn't be surprised to beat Nebraska/iowa/Michigan/NW. I'm not saying I expect us to win and it would be a surprise loss of we lost to them, but it would be no surprise to beat them. If we take 2/3 from tcu, tOSU, wisconsin we better be in the top 10 (top 15 depending on your surprise loss).
Here's my breakdown (with percent chance of a victory):
Losses (2):
TCU (10%)
Toss-ups (6)
Michigan (50%)
wisconsin (40%)
Here's my breakdown (with percent chance of a victory):
Losses (2):
TCU (10%)
@OSU (5%)
Victories (4):
Kent St (95%)
Ohio (95%)
@CSU (65%)
Illinois (65%)
Toss-ups (6)
@Purdue (60%)
@ Northwestern (55%)
@ Iowa (50%)
Michigan (50%)
Nebraska (45%)
wisconsin (40%)
I'm inclined to predict we split the 'toss-up' games in some fashion, which leaves us at 7-5. If you take the importance of rivalries and trophies out the picture, I think our biggest game of the year is @ Northwestern. It's our first conference game, and it will be important to get off to good start as we are probably just as likely to start 0-4 in conference as we are 4-0. @NW, @Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan does not offer us any easy victories (the point spread in all 4 will likely be +/- 3 points).
Of course, all predictions will be altered by injuries, disappointments, and surprises. Purdue and Wisconsin could possibly be easier than I'm predicting, but what Purdue did to us last year and our recent history against wisconsin fuels my predictions. There will be some that would view a 7-5 season as a catastrophe but we need to remember that we are the University of Minnesota and that anything short of disaster is, at least, treading water.
Can't see all this optimism with a brutal schedule, Cobb and Maxx gone, and a 51% passer with rookie receivers. Six or seven wins with the 7th maybe being the bowl game.
In the end, the schedule is nearly identical as last year in my opinion. We played two top 5 teams and we'll do the same this year. The two toughest west opponents are Wisconsin and Nebraska. We played them both on the road last year and will play them both at home this year.
Can't see all this optimism with a brutal schedule, Cobb and Maxx gone, and a 51% passer with rookie receivers. Six or seven wins with the 7th maybe being the bowl game.
Thanks for this interesting post. My disagreements are minor. I think that we have a slightly larger chance of beating TCU (anything can happen in the 1st game of the the season), and slightly lower chances against Michigan and Wisconsin (historically=MI/recently=WI, poor results against both). Go Gophers!
uhhhhWere on the verge of success. 9-3 6-2 in conference and we win the west. Losses to TCU and Ohio state and a third hick up somewhere else. Best case scenario 10-2 and I really don't think think can finish worse than 8-4. Even in the spring game we looked bigger faster and stronger than last year.what really impressed me was our back uos in the secondary looked liked starters and the third stringers could've started on brew or masons defenses.that will allow clays to be more aggressive up front