GopherHolers: A Fleck temperature check

How are we feeling about PJ Fleck?

  • Awful - Fleck needs to be fired now

    Votes: 11 5.8%
  • Bad - Can’t take this for much longer. Seat should be warm at least

    Votes: 69 36.1%
  • So-so - Don’t want him fired, but need to see improvement

    Votes: 100 52.4%
  • Fine or above - How dare anyone call for PJ’s job!

    Votes: 11 5.8%

  • Total voters
    191
A really good question is would you rather have Illinois last 25 seasons or ours?

I would rather have ours maybe but they have a 2000 conference title and a 2007 rose bowl. But have been terrible the other years
True, at some point the valleys can outweigh your peaks.
 

A really good question is would you rather have Illinois last 25 seasons or ours?

I would rather have ours maybe but they have a 2000 conference title and a 2007 rose bowl. But have been terrible the other years
I'd give up pretty much anything for a Rose Bowl. And to tack on a Sugar Bowl to boot? Easy decision for me.
 

Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in all 7 of his seasons.

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand the data.


Yep. Kind of silly to just look at raw win numbers or winning percentages.

I think we’d all agree PJ has arguably (depending how much stock you put in ratings) raised the talent levels everywhere on both sides of the ball. Great speaker, motivator, leader. On the negative side AK was a big miss at QB. Special teams has hurt the team year in and year out in terms of field position, expected points. PJ famously gets sand in his gears trying to nurse small leads, manage time, high pressure game scenarios. Running down the clock even when behind is less than ideal? Currently MN is the off-brand version of Iowa or old-style WI without same eye for talent, or development. What are/were they doing that PJ isn’t?
 

A really good question is would you rather have Illinois last 25 seasons or ours?

I would rather have ours maybe but they have a 2000 conference title and a 2007 rose bowl. But have been terrible the other years
That's always an interesting philosophical question for me. For me winning titles (college conference, NCAA, or pro championship) go a long way to letting me put up with bad seasons. I've been in MN since 2006, and the most sports fun I've had have been the Lynx titles (was fortunate enough to be in attendance for multiple title clinching games), the PWHL title this year, our run of Gopher womens hockey natties, and some of the men's hockey teams conference titles. I'd trade a lot of sub-playoff years to keep those memories. Conversely, the Wild, Twins, and Vikings have all had lengthy runs of competitive teams that never get over the top. I've enjoyed those runs in the moment, but they aren't the memories that stick with me.

There is certainly is a limit. If I could make a deal with the devil to have the Wild win the cup this year, and then never make the playoffs again in my life, I wouldn't take that deal.
 

Did you notice ~90% of the poll answers were in the reasonable middle two answers range?
  • Bad - Can’t take this for much longer. Seat should be warm at least​

    Votes: 5336.3%
  • So-so - Don’t want him fired, but need to see improvement​

Only 6% in the "Fleck needs to be fired now" category. More of you think about the Gophers like me than I thought. That small minority of 6% post A LOT on this forum!
 


Did you notice ~90% of the poll answers were in the reasonable middle two answers range?
  • Bad - Can’t take this for much longer. Seat should be warm at least​

    Votes: 5336.3%
  • So-so - Don’t want him fired, but need to see improvement​

Only 6% in the "Fleck needs to be fired now" category. More of you think about the Gophers like me than I thought. That small minority of 6% post A LOT on this forum!
The fringe voices are often the loudest because they have to be obnoxious in order to get anyone to pay attention to their stupid posts.
 

OP said you can find a lot of other coaches for a lot less. I don’t think even 4 mil gets you a coach with a profile like Fleck had coming out of WMU.
It absolutely does.
 

Of course there are a rare handful. But for a lot less money you’d be hard pressed to attract even a proven coach from the MAC. And even if you did, they’d be much more likely to do worse than Fleck. Deboer is a crazy outlier. Pretty much everyone in the B1G starts around at least four mil now. You’d have to roll the dice on someone from the lower levels or someone that washed out previously. Even a high profile coordinator won’t come here for cheap.
4 mil is a lot less than 6 mil. 5 mil is a million less than 6 mil.
 

OP said you can find a lot of other coaches for a lot less. I don’t think even 4 mil gets you a coach with a profile like Fleck had coming out of WMU.
Fleck hasn’t been near the coach coming out of WMU since 2019. That’s 5 years. In the last year he hasn’t been as good as Kill.
 




Fleck hasn’t been near the coach coming out of WMU since 2019. That’s 5 years. In the last year he hasn’t been as good as Kill.
Unfortunately Jerry didn’t stick around long enough for us to witness if he would have down years. I assume he wasn’t going to go 8-5 every year.
 

If PJ doesn't find a good OC and improve in 2025 he most definitely should be fired. You can find a lot of guys who can do what he's doing for a lot less money.
OC is 80% is what's wrong with this team. His play calling is horrible. If I blame PJ for anything is keeping him around for another season. I was very critical of AK play last season and now I'm beginning to think it wasn't just him after all. Although the word on the street was AK wasn't a true leader and he partied too much. I believe in Max and he will definitely get it together by the time we face Iowa.
 

OC is 80% is what's wrong with this team. His play calling is horrible. If I blame PJ for anything is keeping him around for another season. I was very critical of AK play last season and now I'm beginning to think it wasn't just him after all. Although the word on the street was AK wasn't a true leader and he partied too much. I believe in Max and he will definitely get it together by the time we face Iowa.
Fleck hired the OC. It's very clear that he exerts a very conservative offensive philosophy on the program.
 



Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.14 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in the first 6 of his seasons. Last year he faced Michigan and Ohio State in the same year for the first time (corrected from the original post to fix my error)

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand
You left out some important context:
Mason had
1.) zero Admin support
2.) played in the off-campus, shared Dome competing with monster truck shows and tractor pulls
3.) no budget for coordinators
4.) zero success in the preceding 10 years to build off of

What Mason accomplished here is nothing short of amazing. Yes, I was angry after the collapses (Michigan and TT still haunt me) but he was a way better coach than Fleck or Kill.
 

You left out some important context:
Mason had
1.) zero Admin support
2.) played in the off-campus, shared Dome competing with monster truck shows and tractor pulls
3.) no budget for coordinators
4.) zero success in the preceding 10 years to build off of

What Mason accomplished here is nothing short of amazing. Yes, I was angry after the collapses (Michigan and TT still haunt me) but he was a way better coach than Fleck or Kill.

Mason might have had choke jobs with his defense, but at least his teams were fun watches and had an offensive identity. Don't think PJ or Kill ever went on the road to get wins against top 10 teams. I think Mason could have done far greater things if he had the resources Kill and PJ have currently.
 



Fleck hasn’t been near the coach coming out of WMU since 2019. That’s 5 years. In the last year he hasn’t been as good as Kill.
The last season kill was the coach the team literally had the identical season to last year ?
 


Mason might have had choke jobs with his defense, but at least his teams were fun watches and had an offensive identity. Don't think PJ or Kill ever went on the road to get wins against top 10 teams. I think Mason could have done far greater things if he had the resources Kill and PJ have currently.
We had some improbable losses, but we also had fun. Those offenses were awesome and even in defeat it was entertaining. The stuff that we’ve been subjected to for sure the last year or so and arguably back to 2020 has been like getting red hot pokers shoved into your eyeballs from a O perspective.
 

You left out some important context:
Mason had
1.) zero Admin support
2.) played in the off-campus, shared Dome competing with monster truck shows and tractor pulls
3.) no budget for coordinators
4.) zero success in the preceding 10 years to build off of

What Mason accomplished here is nothing short of amazing. Yes, I was angry after the collapses (Michigan and TT still haunt me) but he was a way better coach than Fleck or Kill.
I went to Monster Jam at the Dome. F word awesome!
 

Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.14 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in the first 6 of his seasons. Last year he faced Michigan and Ohio State in the same year for the first time (corrected from the original post to fix my error)

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand the data.
What does this prove? PJ is the best of a mediocre bunch of coaches? I believe Mason could have won at least one B1G Waste division "title." PJ has had the luxury of coaching in the Mountain West East Division and couldn't make it to the top. I've never been a fan of his schtick, but was always supportive because I was told his players bought in. But that was a different era. His bit isn't and doesn't work.
 

What does this prove? PJ is the best of a mediocre bunch of coaches? I believe Mason could have won at least one B1G Waste division "title." PJ has had the luxury of coaching in the Mountain West East Division and couldn't make it to the top. I've never been a fan of his schtick, but was always supportive because I was told his players bought in. But that was a different era. His bit isn't and doesn't work.
PJ is playing 4D Chess. Mason was fired because he blew huge leads vs. Michigan and Texas Tech. PJ knows this and there are 3 possible solutions. First, he could build a lock down D so that the other team cannot stage a comeback - this is hard and takes time. Second, he could make great in-game adjustments - but, this would go against his nature. Third, he could use an O scheme so terrible that we are never able to build the big lead in the first place - PJ went with option 3. 4D chess I tell you.
 

When I was 13 years old Warmath’s Men won a NC and lost the RB game to Washington in 1960I’m 77 now and can’t believe some here might actually throw in the towel after losing one game…the first game. Buck up. Win the next game. Play better. Shock the crap out of some of these quitters! I’ve seen a wide range of football from my Gopher team over the decades.

Some folks really know their football, have really high expectations and all that good stuff . But they get so upset and po’d and want to fire people.

Guess I feel lucky to not know much football yet still just keep rooting for wins. Big Ten wins especially!
 

I am firmly in the “can’t take this much longer, seat should be warm at least” camp, but also understand based on his contract and buyout status he is very secure until at least the end of next season.

My frustrations with Fleck are primarily about how he approaches games more than the actual results (although a different approach would have almost certainly resulted in at least 2 more wins last year, and already one more win this year). Of course I’d love to see him throw the ball some more, take more chances when near the end zone (not a coincidence we were 93rd in red zone td% last year), but also understand his approach to take points when you have the opportunity and appreciate not turning the ball over a ton down there when you have a very good kicker. I appreciate that his teams are typically smart with how they play the game and avoid stupid penalties that many college teams struggle with. I appreciate that they typically have solid defense and enjoy their approach on that side of the ball to limit the explosives.

What I don’t like is his fake “confidence” in his players, his horrible special teams, and his strict risk averse play calling. His teams are the definition of playing not to lose, which at times can steal a game by not messing up, but more often results in tight games and letting things slip away because you can’t take advantage of your opportunities. He consistently makes the game harder for his own players by not trusting them to make plays when they need them and instead putting them in worse positions to succeed. If you give them a chance to make something happen maybe they will succeed, maybe they will fail, but at least they got a chance to make a big play rather than running into a 9 man box without your best receivers off the field which has a much lower chance of success. We wonder why his passing game struggles? I guarantee a factor is his clear lack of belief in his own players in a sport where confidence is exceedingly important. He didn’t have the same approach when he first got here, and I think the OSU game in 2021 is the last time I remember him truly trying to win a game against an elite opponent rather than simply trying to avoid a blowout loss.

I am not frustrated with his overall record and still believe he is a solid coach, but I also don’t think his brand of football is super fun to watch and think his approach has lost more games that they should have won than the other way around. I am fully okay with giving him this season to prove he can change his best (although game one was not very encouraging in that respect). I don’t even care if the overall results are much better, I just want to watch a team that is confident, fun to watch and looks like they actually enjoy playing football rather than scared of messing up.
 

When I was 13 years old Warmath’s Men won a NC and lost the RB game to Washington in 1960I’m 77 now and can’t believe some here might actually throw in the towel after losing one game…the first game. Buck up. Win the next game. Play better. Shock the crap out of some of these quitters! I’ve seen a wide range of football from my Gopher team over the decades.

Some folks really know their football, have really high expectations and all that good stuff . But they get so upset and po’d and want to fire people.

Guess I feel lucky to not know much football yet still just keep rooting for wins. Big Ten wins especially!
You don't have high expectations.
 

You left out some important context:
Mason had
1.) zero Admin support
2.) played in the off-campus, shared Dome competing with monster truck shows and tractor pulls
3.) no budget for coordinators
4.) zero success in the preceding 10 years to build off of

What Mason accomplished here is nothing short of amazing. Yes, I was angry after the collapses (Michigan and TT still haunt me) but he was a way better coach than Fleck or Kill.
Mase's first game was in Honolulu versus the Rainbow Warriors. They were just as bad then as they are now. They opened a can of whoop-ass on our Gophers to be sure.

That is where he started. He did accomplish a lot but got us only so far.

Need Coach Fleck to change his best.
 

Mase's first game was in Honolulu versus the Rainbow Warriors. They were just as bad then as they are now. They opened a can of whoop-ass on our Gophers to be sure.

That is where he started. He did accomplish a lot but got us only so far.

Need Coach Fleck to change his best.
I will expand a bit on his accomplishments with my context from the last post:

In the preceding 5 years before Mason, the Gophers had a record of 16-39, a .29 win % with 8 Big Ten wins. Further, the last bowl appearance was 12 years prior during Lou Holtz.

In his 10 season, the Gophers were ranked in the AP Top 25 during 6 seasons (in season) and finished ranked 2 times.

Compared to Fleck, the Gophers had a record of 37-28, .57 win % with 18 Big Ten wins in the preceding 5 years. They also had been to a bowl in each of the preceding 5 years and were coming off of a 9-4 season and were pretty stacked with NFL quality talent (Winfield, Johnson, etc).

Also, in Fleck's 7 full seasons, we have been ranked 3 times in season and finished ranked once.

Reminder, this was all done with the extremely favorable B1G conference set up.

What Mason did here was nothing short of amazing given the situation he inherited. Mason was cursed by the old timers that still remembered Rose Bowls - I have been a Gopher fan for going on 30 years and I am way more realistic about what is possible here so I think I give him a much more balanced assessment.

Outside of an amazing season built on inherited talent, Fleck has been an average coach here. Unfortunately for Mason, Fleck is compared in the minds of fans posting here that only seem to remember "8-win Kill" and the Brewster dumpster fire without any further ambition for the team. To date, I think Mason was a better coach than Fleck despite his inherited situation on the field - not to mention the situation off of it as I highlighted in my last post.
 

Why I am optimistic:

1.) There were a dozen or so plays that seemed to go against the Gophers, where if any one of them change we win.
2.) The defense seemed legit, as does the overall talent on the team (weak at WR, and OL seemed to be a weakness vs a strength).
3.) What Brosmer did in the final 2 minutes gives me reason and hope that he can throw receivers open and that the he seemed to gain confidence as the game went on.
4.) We will get Taylor back.

Why I am fearful:
1.) We got outcoached coming out of half (they made adjustments and we did not) which scares me for how we will adjust and coach game to game.
2.) I don't know if Fleck can change who Fleck is when it comes to calling games.

We did not lose to NC because of Fleck, but if Fleck coaches differently we do win that game. When we beat Iowa in a few weeks, people will be talking about how great Fleck is and talking about how we should beat Michigan (which we probably will). This team is good and we just laid an egg against a good opponent, but we did show we have things to build upon.

I trust in Fleck to get us where we need to go and I think it will be sooner than people think
 

Why I am optimistic:

1.) There were a dozen or so plays that seemed to go against the Gophers, where if any one of them change we win.

Take away the Wally "pick almost-6" and we score 10 points on under 250 yards of offense. Putting this another way, for the first 58 minutes of the game, we were held to under 200 yards of total offense - which would be behind 2023 Iowa (235 yards/game). If UNC turns out to be a powerhouse, I will take back everything on this. But, I don't see how this can be classified as anything but laying an egg at home given what we know at this time.

Why I am fearful:
1.) We got outcoached coming out of half (they made adjustments and we did not) which scares me for how
Fleck has never been capable of making in-game adjustments (seems to be a curse for all Gopher coaches) and if he cannot seem to figure out how to manage time-outs, I have no faith in his ability to adjust to things many times more complex.
 




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