GopherHolers: A Fleck temperature check

[btowngopher]

The choices here are ridiculous.

Temperature check? His seat is cool as a cucumber.

He is currently in no danger of being fired, unless a scandal erupts.

If his current trajectory doesn't change, I don't think if we go 2-10 this year his seat will be hot next year.

To some the writing is on the wall, but just because the writing is on the wall, doesn't mean the four options above are a fair set of states.

I don't fall in any of those categories, but if I had to choose, I'd choose so-so.

My general attitude is that anyone surprised by were we are hasn't been paying attention. I'd also say that unless and until we have a competent AD and an administration that has expectations and a commitment to actually be all the superlatives Fleck loves to use, but doesn't understand the true meaning of on the footballl field, it doesn't matter. At best we'd get more of the same like this hire. At worst, we'd get Tim Brewster the sequel.

The game has changed completely in the past few years, but will all the bravado, sloganeering, and LOOK at Meeeeeeeeeee! from our Head Cheerleader, the program is roughly where it was under Mason and Kill.

The only place were Fleck has stood out is his performance in Bowl games. Aside from that, he's been a louder, more obnoxious (to me) version of Mason and Kill who had their own set of quirks and failings, but at least coached to win after a few years as opposed to coaching not to lose..

There are a lot of people who disagree with me, but my opinion hasn't changed much since Fleck was hired. We'll see where his tenure ends which won't be for several years at the earliest.

I wouldn’t call Mason’s blown lead after blown lead and Kill’s RUTM offense playing to win. Regardless, the guy that you said isn’t playing to win has actually won more.

 

[Lou Brown]

Name a few.

LeVar Woods at Iowa is the first call I’d make.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Name a few.

I'd start with the list of OCs who have more than 120 yards through three quarters this week and narrow it from there.

 

[Wally]

I like what Fleck has done with the team but I just don’t think he’s a good game-time coach. I sense no improvement the last few seasons. Please get a decent OC and let that person call the plays.

This

 

[PMWinSTP]

Coyle will never fire Fleck. Never. Never. Never.

Fleck could go 0-12 for the season while losing every game by 30 points, and Coyle would not fire Fleck.

It's not going to happen.

when Fleck leaves MN, it will be his choice - either to retire or take another job.

now, if for some reason, Coyle leaves MN first, then all bets are off. a new AD would not be linked to Fleck the way Coyle is linked.

but as long as Coyle is the AD, Fleck will be the Football coach.

You think Coyle is that dumb?

 

[PMWinSTP]

Name a few.

Washington signed Kalen Deboer for less than $2M. Was at $4.2M last year. They absolutely are out there, no question.

 

[btowngopher]

Washington signed Kalen Deboer for less than $2M. Was at $4.2M last year. They absolutely are out there, no question.

Of course there are a rare handful. But for a lot less money you’d be hard pressed to attract even a proven coach from the MAC. And even if you did, they’d be much more likely to do worse than Fleck. Deboer is a crazy outlier. Pretty much everyone in the B1G starts around at least four mil now. You’d have to roll the dice on someone from the lower levels or someone that washed out previously. Even a high profile coordinator won’t come here for cheap.

 

[btowngopher]

I'd start with the list of OCs who have more than 120 yards through three quarters this week and narrow it from there.

I thought we were talking HCs, as far as OCs I agree there are plenty of other directions we could go.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Of course there are a rare handful. But for a lot less money you’d be hard pressed to attract even a proven coach from the MAC. And even if you did, they’d be much more likely to do worse than Fleck. Deboer is a crazy outlier. Pretty much everyone in the B1G starts around at least four mil now. You’d have to roll the dice on someone from the lower levels or someone that washed out previously. Even a high profile coordinator won’t come here for cheap.

It's not rare, he's not a "crazy" outlier, and your MAC comment is laughable. The highest paid MAC HC in 2023 made $1.125M. The highest paid G5 HC made $2.3M. I'm not saying Fleck needs to go now, but every year there are better up and coming coaches emerging. The worst thing Coyle can do is wait too long if this season is 5 wins and next season starts off bad.

 

[Gopherchase]

Of course there are a rare handful. But for a lot less money you’d be hard pressed to attract even a proven coach from the MAC. And even if you did, they’d be much more likely to do worse than Fleck. Deboer is a crazy outlier. Pretty much everyone in the B1G starts around at least four mil now. You’d have to roll the dice on someone from the lower levels or someone that washed out previously. Even a high profile coordinator won’t come here for cheap.

Dumb.

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

The hot seat should be for the OC. PJ should be in the delegator/CEO role and get top talent at OC and that will make him look good. His game-time coaching has always been suspect.

 

[PMWinSTP]

The hot seat should be for the OC. PJ should be in the delegator/CEO role and get top talent at OC and that will make him look good. His game-time coaching has always been suspect.

Fleck picked the OC.

 

[1983]

It appears Fleck doesn’t want to be here. He’s checking out, losing coordinators, and attention to detail is waning.

This was from day one. Not the guy but in defense of him, the university has no interest in success so mediocre guys will be on easy street here for 5 to 8 years. Coyle is included here. very vanilla and ineffective.

 

[btowngopher]

It's not rare, he's not a "crazy" outlier, and your MAC comment is laughable. The highest paid MAC HC in 2023 made $1.125M. The highest paid G5 HC made $2.3M. I'm not saying Fleck needs to go now, but every year there are better up and coming coaches emerging. The worst thing Coyle can do is wait too long if this season is 5 wins and next season starts off bad.

Any proven G5 coach is going to have multiple suitors. You aren’t landing one for just a little more than what they already make. Fleck’s original contract was over 3 mil a year.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Any proven G5 coach is going to have multiple suitors. You aren’t landing one for just a little more than what they already make. Fleck’s original contract was over 3 mil a year.

Who said just a little more? That $3M is triple what most G5 HCs make. No question that $4M a year would turn a lot of heads of top G5 HCs and top P4 coordinators. Would double or triple their current salaries.

 

[Scott R Fisher]

Overall his tenure has been good. But it's really starting to get stale.

I agree with this. It's soooo predictable with little or no hope for even a whiff of elite status. It feels like the program trajectory is nosing downward a couple degrees. I'm hoping, short of a big turn-around, we look in another direction and let PJ go to "greener pastures".

 

[caliGopher]

You think Coyle is that dumb?

yes.

 

[caliGopher]

I wouldn’t call Mason’s blown lead after blown lead and Kill’s RUTM offense playing to win. Regardless, the guy that you said isn’t playing to win has actually won more.

Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.14 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in the first 6 of his seasons. Last year he faced Michigan and Ohio State in the same year for the first time (corrected from the original post to fix my error)

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand the data.

 

[EG#9]

Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in all 7 of his seasons.

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand the data.

This is good info. At Minnesota, almost every coach post Wacker has had a period of time where they could claim they were our best coach since the 60's or whatever. Brewster is the exception, but when he started 7-1 and was recruiting at a level we had not seen in my lifetime in his second season...he had his incredibly brief moment in the (relative) sun too.

After Fleck went to Michigan State a couple years ago and throttled them, I thought we had a definitive answer to this question. I believe that brought his record to 1 game above .500 in the B1G and everybody and their mother thought we'd easily win the B1G West. At that point, I thought it was inconceivable that Fleck's B1G record would ever fall below .500. The very next week he lost as a big home favorite to Purdue on homecoming...a year after losing to Bowling Green on homecoming in a similar lackluster performance. Flash forward to today, and it seems inconceivable to me that Fleck's B1G record will ever be above .500 again.

In my opinion he's still definitively the best Gopher football coach of my lifetime, but that's such a low bar it's almost irrelevant. Mason coached 10 years and the Gophers were one of only two teams (Indiana the other) to not finish in the top 3 of the conference during that decade. Mason also never beat a team that finished in the top 3 of the conference. Kill never beat Wisconsin and seemed even further away than Mason (to me) to actually fielding a team that could win anything of significance. Fleck at least had 2019. He at least ended the ridiculous streak of losing to Wisconsin (though that's at least somewhat negated by him also holding the longest losing streak to Iowa in program history). If someone wanted to make an argument for Kill or Mason a few years ago I would have vehemently disagreed, and today I'd just kind of shrug and move on.

Bottom line, it's an extremely low bar to simply be better than what we've had at Minnesota. I've noticed when coaches at Minnesota start to compare themselves more to our past failed coaches instead of their current peers in conference play, it's almost certainly time to move on. The job isn't to be better than Jerry Kill, or Glen Mason, or Tim Brewster, the job is to be better than Iowa, Wisconsin, and once every 4- 5 years or so feel like winning the Conference (or in todays 18 team conference world making the playoff) is at least a possibility.

 

[btowngopher]

Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in all 7 of his seasons.

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand the data.

For me it’s the peaks that matter more than the overall records. For example I’d much rather have an 11-2 season and a couple 5-7 seasons over three 8-5 seasons.

 

[btowngopher]

Who said just a little more? That $3M is triple what most G5 HCs make. No question that $4M a year would turn a lot of heads of top G5 HCs and top P4 coordinators. Would double or triple their current salaries.

OP said you can find a lot of other coaches for a lot less. I don’t think even 4 mil gets you a coach with a profile like Fleck had coming out of WMU.

 

[Some guy]

I read the poll as what do I (me) think of PJF. Some backstory.

I have a buddy in New Ulm who is a Penn State grad. My friend has complete distain for the "gimmicky, motivational speaker, R-t-B nonsense" Fleck and he reminds me every time something doesn't go right.

Case in point, I wake up Friday morning to a text, "What was your favorite PJ Fleck moment?" Of course, I quickly countered, "Beating Penn State." He was at that game.

Yet, this guy knows CF backwards-&-forwards and he played four years of high school ball in Missouri for their version of Mike Grant. Seriously, this guy should blog about D1 CF, he is that smart so I respect his opinion even if we disagree.

Over Jack or single malt we have had meaningful discussions about, "Okay, you replace PJ and who are you going to get?" I suppose the Florida State coach might be available soon. But really, who are we going to get? And do we really want to go through another transition...it has all the feelings of a divorce each time we have a coaching change.

While he wasn't a marquis name, I thought letting Tracy Claeys stay on as HC wasn't the worst idea. If he was about 80lbs lighter it would have been an easier sell, but I digress.

I have learned that I am bi-polar when it comes to PJF.

Thursday at kickoff I am definitely a "Fleck's my guy" fan. At the end of the game I am definitely a "Fleck's gotta go" fan. Today I am more, "Unless you are going to go get Lance Liepold, let's stick with what we got and make this thing work."

I don't want a coaching change but I do want a results change. We all do. I think we have decent talent, PJ did a nice job in the transfer portal, there appears to be some momentum building on the high school recruiting trail, it looks like the D will keep us in most games...Coyle needs to save the fan base and do an intervention demanding an OC change.

Sorry for the rambling post. I have spent way too much time on this team in the last 48 hours. The next three games are the determining factor for me on where my interest-meter lands regarding the rest of 2024. Assuming RI and Nevada are wins, Iowa is huge for me.

Your buddy is against gimmicky stuff yet he cheers for James Franklin and the program that covered up child sexual assault?

Your friend is funny

 

[Some guy]

For me it’s the peaks that matter more than the overall records. For example I’d much rather have an 11-2 season and a couple 5-7 seasons over three 8-5 seasons.

Glen Mason coached in the easiest era to win a big ten title.
8 game schedule. Miss two teams. Could be in a 4 way tie and win it.

Kill was a good coach who quit on the program. He simply walked away. Not sure if it’s a worthwhile exercise to compare in terms of firing fleck. Kill was never fired.

Yes, he has.

Mason B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .400
Kill/Claeys B1G Conf. Winning Percentage: .408
Fleck B1G Conf Winning Percentage: .475 (note all Fleck's numbers include data from the 2020 season unless otherwise specified)

Avg. conf. wins per season:

Mason: 3.2
Kill.Claeys: 3.3
Fleck: 4.1

Comparing Big 10 Schedules, Regular Season Only, winning percentage of the teams faced in total during their tenure:

Mason: .533
Kill/Claeys: .531
Fleck: .465

The hardest schedule / easiest schedule each faced in a single season:

Mason: .625 twice / .422 twice
Kill/Claeys: .578 / .469 twice
Fleck: .543 (last year) / .383*

*The opponent winning percentage in 2020 was only .247, but that season is relevant in the wins accumulated, but not a fair data point to compare to normal seasons. The .383 was the next lowest.


Percentage of B1G regular season games against teams ranked in the AP at the end of the year:
Mason: 40% (32 out of 80 Games) - average of 3.2 per year
Kill/Claeys: 36.7% (18 out of 49 Games) - average of 3 per year
Fleck: 29.6% (16 out of 54 Games*) - average of 2.3 per year

I took out the games from 2020 from this calculation. Rankings during 2020 were not reliable and it would be unfair to include to artificially deflate his numbers.

It's also important to remember that Fleck's numbers are a little different in that he has played 1 more game per season than all of Mason's tenure and all but the last year of the Kill/Claeys era. When Fleck hits 10 years here, he will have coached more than a full season more than what Mason coached in his 10 years.

Average number of regular reason B1G games per year
Mason: 8
Kill/Claeys: 8.16
Fleck: 8.7

Top Teams Played:
Mason games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 2.4 per year
Kill/Claeys games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1.3 per year
Fleck games vs. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State: 1 per year

Mason didn't coach in the divisional era, and played all three in 4 seasons, Michigan and Ohio State in another 2 seasons and Michigan or Ohio State and Penn State in the remaining four years.

Kill coached in the original Leaders/Legends Divisional split for the first three years, which included Michigan each year. In one season during that division he also coached against Penn State. For the remaining three years, He coached against MI and OSU in one season, and one season with just OSU and one with just PSU.

Fleck coached in the West Division up until this year and coached against only one of those three teams in all 7 of his seasons.

None of this changes that Fleck's winning percentage is higher right now, but like in all things data related, context is helpful to understand the data.

are you aware that kill and claeys are two different people?
one of them quit coaching for the program.
Kill probably could’ve stayed as long as he wanted.
Claeys completely undermined his bosses on national tv. Only a few coaches in CFB history could’ve survived how bad Claeys played that. His firing had nothing to do with football and everything to do with a cheap buyout and the fact the AD and president couldn’t trust him anymore.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Please get a decent OC and let that person call the plays.

I think we have to let the season play out but if the offense doesn't show signs of improvement over the course of the season I would 100% agree with this sentiment.

But I don't know that Fleck will do it. He seems determined not to go out and get high profile coordinators, tending more towards younger up and coming guys as opposed to highly regarded coordinators.

 

[SuperMeat]

Glen Mason coached in the easiest era to win a big ten title.
8 game schedule. Miss two teams. Could be in a 4 way tie and win it.

Kill was a good coach who quit on the program. He simply walked away. Not sure if it’s a worthwhile exercise to compare in terms of firing fleck. Kill was never fired.

are you aware that kill and claeys are two different people?
one of them quit coaching for the program.
Kill probably could’ve stayed as long as he wanted.
Claeys completely undermined his bosses on national tv. Only a few coaches in CFB history could’ve survived how bad Claeys played that. His firing had nothing to do with football and everything to do with a cheap buyout and the fact the AD and president couldn’t trust him anymore.

I'd argue Fleck has had it easiest with how bad the West had been.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I'd argue Fleck has had it easiest with how bad the West had been.

He certainly has had the easiest path to playing in a conference title game (and it is shocking we didn't pull that off at least once). Mason probably had an easier path to winning a big ten title in the pre-division era.

 

[Some guy]

I'd argue Fleck has had it easiest with how bad the West had been.

Well even if you win the west to win the division you have to beat the best team in the conference in the CCG

there are schools who have won conference (the whole deal, not just the division) titles with just one win against the top 3 in the conference in the era between the Penn state addition and Nebraska addition.

I would agree it is easier to get close in the big ten west era. But actually winning it is much harder.

 

[Some guy]

For me it’s the peaks that matter more than the overall records. For example I’d much rather have an 11-2 season and a couple 5-7 seasons over three 8-5 seasons.

A really good question is would you rather have Illinois last 25 seasons or ours?

I would rather have ours maybe but they have a 2000 conference title and a 2007 rose bowl. But have been terrible the other years

 

[fmlizard]

I was in the so-so group but far from ready to call for a firing in August after barely losing as an underdog to a quality P5 team that has better recruiting talent and more overall resources.

Glass half full is that the defense is good and that will keep the Gophers in a lot of games if DT gets healthy and they can block better.

 

[gopherguy]

It's not rare, he's not a "crazy" outlier, and your MAC comment is laughable. The highest paid MAC HC in 2023 made $1.125M. The highest paid G5 HC made $2.3M. I'm not saying Fleck needs to go now, but every year there are better up and coming coaches emerging. The worst thing Coyle can do is wait too long if this season is 5 wins and next season starts off bad.

The first who should go is Coyle. Responsibility starts at the top, he should go and hopefully the new President (from Michigan) takes no prisoners and jettisons Fleck as well. This program, whether people want to believe it or not, is primed for money printing... because it is fortunate enough to be in the best financially managed conference. The new president should hire the best of the best AD's, and that individual should accept nothing less than a Jim Harbaugh level head coach. Thank you very much.