Last word on this is that 4 people have applied for pre-approval and all were denied because of mental illness.
Gopher currently +13 vs Northwestern
- Thread starter Dr.Don
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Last word on this is that 4 people have applied for pre-approval and all were denied because of mental illness.
You had me until you said "pre-approval to the Parski search party." For all I know that could require that a person would have to travel to Fargo. I would be willing to search for Parski at Mable's if Dr.Don would buy me dinner along with a couple of Blatz beers.
I never buy dinner without going to bed first!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's been fun reading this thread for this NU fan so far.
Regarding injuries: Siemian and the center, Vitabile, were not injured and are OK. Our best DT, McEvilly, has been out for several games and probably won't play for this game. Mark and Colter are dinged up and may or may not play. We'll see. I realize Mark is somewhat etched in Minnesota fans minds after last year. His loss will hurt because he is such a dynamic guy, but we have played well without him up until the OSU game. Treyvon Green is a good back between the tackles and freshman Miles Long will provide some quickness outside. Green has already rushed for 350 yards in a reserve role.
Someone mentioned losing Colter would hurt our passing game at WR. That's possible, but Colter has hardly played any WR so far this season.
Regarding NU at this point: IMO, NU is not quite as strong a team as it was last season, mainly because of losses on the OL and DL. Graduation losses have hurt our OL and DT's in terms of overall execution and physicality at the LOS and the replacements have not filled in as well as their predecessors. Brian Arnfelt, a Minnesota kid who had no offers other than from NU, has moved on to the NFL (Steelers). He was a workout warrior as a DT, with a 500-lb bench and a 4.8 40 time. Why wasn't he offered by Minnesota? Anyway, with the loss of Arnfelt and other excellent players, and with the loss of our best DT, McEvilly, to injury, we are now clearly weaker at the DT position than we were last season and now struggle holding the LOS. Our OL also lost three big, physical, experienced guys at the Guard and tackle positions. This loss of experience and physicality has been apparent this year and really hurt us against Wisconsin.
Otherwise, the team has benefited from increased athleticism in the defensive backfield, and the improvement expected with another years experience. We have a talented defensive backfield and some pretty good play-making linebackers. In combination with a good group of pass rushing DE's, they have been able to grab a huge number of interceptions this year. The WR's are deep and normally don't drop the ball. The many drops in the Wisconsin game were an anomaly for this group. They rarely drop two balls a game, let alone 8-10. Mark is our best RB by far, but Green is good at running through the trash between the tackles.
Regarding this game: Has Minnesota improved their physicality and execution over where they were last season? If your OL and running game are more physical than they were last year (and they were physical with Kirkwood running the ball last year; Kirkwood is my favorite RB in the B1G), then they should be able to move the ball against NU's DL. I think this will be key to the game, because I think our DB's and DE's will do a good job defending the pass.
I question the line being so high because of our weakness on the OL and at the DT position, and because of possible injuries to Mark and Colter. IMO, NU has been a bit overrated because our weaknesses in the OL and DL hadn't been exposed, but we do have a lot of playmakers on offense and in the defensive back 7.
I think this will be great game...a real opportunity for both teams to grab an important win.
Regarding injuries: Siemian and the center, Vitabile, were not injured and are OK. Our best DT, McEvilly, has been out for several games and probably won't play for this game. Mark and Colter are dinged up and may or may not play. We'll see. I realize Mark is somewhat etched in Minnesota fans minds after last year. His loss will hurt because he is such a dynamic guy, but we have played well without him up until the OSU game. Treyvon Green is a good back between the tackles and freshman Miles Long will provide some quickness outside. Green has already rushed for 350 yards in a reserve role.
Someone mentioned losing Colter would hurt our passing game at WR. That's possible, but Colter has hardly played any WR so far this season.
Regarding NU at this point: IMO, NU is not quite as strong a team as it was last season, mainly because of losses on the OL and DL. Graduation losses have hurt our OL and DT's in terms of overall execution and physicality at the LOS and the replacements have not filled in as well as their predecessors. Brian Arnfelt, a Minnesota kid who had no offers other than from NU, has moved on to the NFL (Steelers). He was a workout warrior as a DT, with a 500-lb bench and a 4.8 40 time. Why wasn't he offered by Minnesota? Anyway, with the loss of Arnfelt and other excellent players, and with the loss of our best DT, McEvilly, to injury, we are now clearly weaker at the DT position than we were last season and now struggle holding the LOS. Our OL also lost three big, physical, experienced guys at the Guard and tackle positions. This loss of experience and physicality has been apparent this year and really hurt us against Wisconsin.
Otherwise, the team has benefited from increased athleticism in the defensive backfield, and the improvement expected with another years experience. We have a talented defensive backfield and some pretty good play-making linebackers. In combination with a good group of pass rushing DE's, they have been able to grab a huge number of interceptions this year. The WR's are deep and normally don't drop the ball. The many drops in the Wisconsin game were an anomaly for this group. They rarely drop two balls a game, let alone 8-10. Mark is our best RB by far, but Green is good at running through the trash between the tackles.
Regarding this game: Has Minnesota improved their physicality and execution over where they were last season? If your OL and running game are more physical than they were last year (and they were physical with Kirkwood running the ball last year; Kirkwood is my favorite RB in the B1G), then they should be able to move the ball against NU's DL. I think this will be key to the game, because I think our DB's and DE's will do a good job defending the pass.
I question the line being so high because of our weakness on the OL and at the DT position, and because of possible injuries to Mark and Colter. IMO, NU has been a bit overrated because our weaknesses in the OL and DL hadn't been exposed, but we do have a lot of playmakers on offense and in the defensive back 7.
I think this will be great game...a real opportunity for both teams to grab an important win.
wait!what?
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Fully picturing NU to move the ball 5 yds at a time via QB opt run and quick out routes. Then, after watching the goph D creep in- go up top. Minny needs points from every squad- Off. Def. and Spec teams.
WorkingMyTailOff
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Thank you for the good information and for setting me straight on some injury information. I thought in watching the Wisconsin game that NU lost a DT to what looked like a knee injury. I also thought that vs OSU, NU lost the center (but maybe another oline guy) due to injury? The NU center who played against the badgers had 3 hold penalties (calls that might not be made if NU is at home against Wisconsin?).
I agree that this game could come down to whether the Gopher's possible physical edge can outweigh NU's athletic/playmaking edge. Looking forward to it!
The NU DT is fine. He's had some undisclosed issue all year. Cal fans accused him of faking an injury when he really was dinged. Our OT, Konopka, got dinged up against OSU but later went back into the game. The center, Vitabile, was not injured, and just had a tough matchup against Wisconsin. He is our best OL and preseason all-Big Ten.
Colter and Mark didn't practice again today.
Gladeskat, are these two players who could still play despite not practicing much during the week or would you consider them not practicing yet to be a sign that they probably won't play?
Gladeskat, are these two players who could still play despite not practicing much during the week or would you consider them not practicing yet to be a sign that they probably won't play?
I think if they practice tomorrow, then they will play Saturday. Fitz is very secretive about injuries, so who knows who will play Saturday. Nobody outside of the program has info on the extent of their injuries. Mark and Colter both looked excellent against OSU. I didn't see them get injured in the UW game. Nobody was aware of McEvilly's injury until he didn't show up on the 2-deep list. Now he's been out for several weeks.
There was an article featuring Treyvon Green on Scout, discussing preparing for UMn, but no mention on whether Mark would be ready for the game. If Mark is unable to go, look for Green to get a lot of carries. He's 5'10", 210, average speed, not particularly physical a la Kirkwoood, but shows good ability to pick his way through the LOS for yardage and cut to daylight. He has broken several long runs (33, 42, 55 yards) this season and has a 7.0 ypc average.
There was an article featuring Treyvon Green on Scout, discussing preparing for UMn, but no mention on whether Mark would be ready for the game. If Mark is unable to go, look for Green to get a lot of carries. He's 5'10", 210, average speed, not particularly physical a la Kirkwoood, but shows good ability to pick his way through the LOS for yardage and cut to daylight. He has broken several long runs (33, 42, 55 yards) this season and has a 7.0 ypc average.
Ogee Ogilthorpe
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If NU doesn't turn the ball over, I think it will be difficult for the Gophers to win.
MN will move the ball on Northwestern, there's not a doubt in my mind. I'm just not sure how effectively they'll stop the Cats on a consistent basis. I think the Gopher offense will undoubtedly look better than they did against Iowa and Michigan. The defense needs to step up, plain and simple.
They'll need some charity from NU if they expect to win this one. If they lose the TO battle, it will not bode well for the Gophers. I know NU has been effective at turning teams over, but TO's come and go from a defensive standpoint. You can't expect that to continue for an entire season. The Gophers are one of the most conservative teams NU has played, not exactly a style that lends itself to turning it over, which is by design this year with such youngsters at QB.
Should be a really good game.
MN will move the ball on Northwestern, there's not a doubt in my mind. I'm just not sure how effectively they'll stop the Cats on a consistent basis. I think the Gopher offense will undoubtedly look better than they did against Iowa and Michigan. The defense needs to step up, plain and simple.
They'll need some charity from NU if they expect to win this one. If they lose the TO battle, it will not bode well for the Gophers. I know NU has been effective at turning teams over, but TO's come and go from a defensive standpoint. You can't expect that to continue for an entire season. The Gophers are one of the most conservative teams NU has played, not exactly a style that lends itself to turning it over, which is by design this year with such youngsters at QB.
Should be a really good game.
Costa Rican Gopher
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First off, I rarely bet sports these days as I don't have the discipline to win consistently. That said, I was on the other side of the counter professionally for 20 years so I know of what I speak.
You're an investor so let me point out that Sports Betting & the Stock Market are essentially the same thing. In fact I think a novice bettor has as good a chance to win betting on sports as a novice investor does making money on the stock market.
My point is that betting sports is a form of gambling unlike cards, dice, lottery tickets, pull-tabs etc that is completely reliant on dumb luck. Also, unlike Betting sports you get to choose the teams/spreads that you believe are beatable. I have seen complete idiots win season long with nothing but dumb luck & a little discipline. It's the exception to the rule but it happens. There are seasons when the favorites cover & the "square" players win.
Like the stock market again, sports betting also has many levels of sophistication & there are people/groups who make their livings betting on sports (although it's not easy work). Like contrarian investors, arbitragers, trend investors, etc. so to there are many forms of sophisticated sports betting.
The statistical model you mention of Matt H is a good example of what not to do. There have been hundreds, probably thousands of groups who thought they'd figured out statistical models that would beat the odds & you can count on one hand the number that have actually worked long term (again, it's not uncommon for people to have a winning season or two). MV (Matt H) is a genius in many ways, one of them with statistics, still I think he'd admit he wouldn't make money betting from his models?
Most long term winners blend handicapping skills (where stat models can help), excellent money management skills, your contrarian philosophy of investing, multiple "outs" to ensure the best line on every bet & to search for arbitrages, they follow the weather closely, look for tangible trends & emotional factors such as look-ahead & payback games.
I could write pages on this, but this is it in a nutshell.
Cobra
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I find your post most interesting, but I root for the Gophers every game they play, & I don't gamble on sports.
KISS - I have my team, & I'm there 100%.
That said, I admire what NU has done with their program, & I think it's cool.
I also think the two teams are fairly evenly matched, so the Gophers have a shot, & that's all I could ask for...
I'm calling it a toss-up, which ultimately means I like our chances. ;-)
Interesting stuff. Like you I could write pages on investing but this is a football blog. I will make one last comment, if you want to understand how the market really works David Dreman's book on Contrarian Investment Strategies lays is out. Most people make the wrong decisions because they are controlled by fear and greed and don't understand how the market really works.
P.S. Gambling on football games for the vast majority is still a fools game unless you are the house.
P.S. Gambling on football games for the vast majority is still a fools game unless you are the house.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Northwestern QB Kain Colter and RB Venric Mark both questionable on official injury report for Minnesota game. DT Sean McEvilly still out.</p>— ESPN Big Ten (@ESPN_BigTen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPN_BigTen/statuses/390952831177330689">October 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Ogee Ogilthorpe
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It depends on your perspective. You're completely dismissing the entertainment factor. Some gamble for enjoyment, because maybe the games can be boring with no juice on them.
It's like any other form of gambling; money you put in play has to be viewed as money SPENT, not an investment, not with any plans or strong intention of winning and making money. I don't gamble a lot, hardly at all, but I put the occasional bet on a game, particularly of I know something about an injury situation that the books seem to be missing or ignoring.
I absolutely cleaned up on Wisky-MN in 2005, the blocked punt game. Cupito was banged up pretty bad all week, Mason was non-committal on a starter, the line was Gophers (-5) most of the week, which I thought was high to begin with. Star Trib printed late Friday night, Vegas time, that Cupito would NOT go, and an unbelievably inexperienced Mortensen would be starting. That's the biggest wager I've ever put on a game. The *&^!#*&^!#*&^!#*&^!#ter of it was, without the blocked punt, the Gophers still coud have own, by 3, with Wisky covering the +5.
Anyway, I digress. Point is, you can't dismiss gambling completely. Yes, some people foolishly look at it as an opportunity to make money but there IS a high percentage of people who view it strictly as an entertainment expense.
I realize that there are different reasons why people bet but for me losing money is not entertainment. But to each his own. The real problem is that for some people gambling is an addiction. Then it is not fun for either the person addicted and or for the people around him or her.
I agree that the horses offer better betting opportunities than football. Really strange things can happen during a football game, including strange bounces, and scoring at the end of the game when the scrubs are playing.
Ogee Ogilthorpe
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True, true, true... To each his own. I don't understand smoking or NASCAR, but what do I know.
But please, keep your opinion to yourself. If more people thought like you, stopped gambling, I might actually have to pay state income tax someday. Gotta keep those plains, buses, and conferences coming to Sin City!!
Actually you are right. I am an independent voter but I do find it strange that Democrats support lotto and other forms of gambling since it is really a very regressive "tax". But since it is reducing my taxes I shouldn't complain but it is bad public policy.But the problem is if Minnesota didn't do it, the money would go to Iowa and Wisconsin and that is really bad public policy.
station19
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Thanks for the warning.
jaymil, I wish you would have waited until Saturday to tell us this. You have also ruined my Friday, now, on top of it by knowing this.
Kain Colter has been downgraded to doubtful according to sportsinsights.com, which is some betting site I've never heard of so I'll take it with a grain of salt. It's definitely possible NW will be without both Colter and Mark.
From scoresandodds.com, the we use for our Pick Per Day contest:
[DB] 09/02/2013 - Daniel Jones out for season ( Knee )
[DT] 10/17/2013 - Sean McEvilly expected to miss Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Lower Body )
(!)[QB] 10/18/2013 - Kain Colter is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Ankle )
(!)[RB] 10/18/2013 - Venric Mark is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Ankle )
[LB] 10/17/2013 - Jaylen Prater expected to miss Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Undisclosed )
[DB] 09/02/2013 - Daniel Jones out for season ( Knee )
[DT] 10/17/2013 - Sean McEvilly expected to miss Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Lower Body )
(!)[QB] 10/18/2013 - Kain Colter is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Ankle )
(!)[RB] 10/18/2013 - Venric Mark is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Ankle )
[LB] 10/17/2013 - Jaylen Prater expected to miss Saturday vs. Minnesota U ( Undisclosed )
6 Nov 1999
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Guess you're not attending the game then are you?
Iceland12,
1. Last time I attended a football game in Dyche Stadium was actually my first NCAA, Big Ten, and Golden Gopher football game. My Dad (Bachelor Chemistry 1949 / M.S. Chemistry 1952) took me there on 14 October 1961. I had to research Eric Thrall's website to figure this out. I always thought it was 1962 or 1963 but we won the game and it was at Dyche stadium, so that would have to make it 1961. I guess I was only 8 years old. Dad bought me a Golden Gopher pennant, one with a Gopher wearing a football helmet, football pants, and cleats, leaning against the Minnesota "M". I remember him telling me to stop waving it so wildly because we had won the game, and he did not want to unduly irritate the Wildcat faithful after the game ended. The pennant is now pinned above my youngest son's bed. He is now a junior in AFROTC Det 415. Three generations of Golden Gophers.
2. I would love to be there in person tomorrow, but it is just not in the cards. Dyche stadium is 751 miles from my driveway. Wren will be representing me. I will do my part yelling at ESPN2.
3. I am still praying for heavy rain, 2+ inches / hour, and driving wind. These conditions are our friends. I know it would make life suck in the stands, but they would give us a chance to win. Looking at the weather websites, it looks like it might possibly drizzle or rain lightly, but not much at all. According to the NOAA website it looks like no more than 3/100ths of an inch during the game.
Colter is doubtful. Mark is most likely out for this game and may have suffered a fracture according to the Chicago Tribune's Teddy Greenstein. McEvilly is also not likely to play. These are big losses for NU but we had to deal with them before when we played California and Syracuse.
We may be passing early and often Saturday.
We may be passing early and often Saturday.