Gopher currently +13 vs Northwestern

Donate To GopherHole
Sparlimb said:
They we're very close to beating Ohio St. And definately belonged on the field with them. Unlike Us. They are pissed and have 2 losses in a row. We're in deep trouble.
Click to expand...

Thats an exaggeration. They were up at half because ohio st was careless and made a lot of mistakes and were beating themselves in the first half. They were dominated in the second half just as bad as the gophers were dominated by mich and NW was at home... They were no where near close to beating ohio st.

I'd say:
NW is down because their season went down the shi++er and they are also beat up with injuries. Your "pissed" comment may have been true for their game at Wisconsin and man did they look bad.

Minn should be feeling good after their week off and be ready pound the ball against a weak rush defense. Although I think the line of +13 is probably right from a better stand point since NW is at home, I think the gophers have an OK chance of winning this game. (Unfortunately I'm a big gophers fan and always think they have some* chance of winning the game)

Go Gophers!
 

I don't understand why a lot of people here even follow the Gophers. Why spend so much time, effort, and emotional investment on something that you clearly hate? Read through this thread. It's disgusting. They should call this the Gopher Anti-fan Board.
 

Dr.Don said:
We have 2 losses in a row, so we are pissed. NU is in deep trouble.
Click to expand...

And we have a sick coach to rally around. Sure hope that is what happens. The realist in me sees it a different way though...
 


Venric Mark is the key to this game, that guy scares me to death. If he's healthy, he would bust off 1-2 long runs. If he can't go, it should be close.
 



bottlebass said:
Thats an exaggeration. They were up at half because ohio st was careless and made a lot of mistakes and were beating themselves in the first half. They were dominated in the second half just as bad as the gophers were dominated by mich and NW was at home... They were no where near close to beating ohio st.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't call "making mistakes" such as getting the ball stripped and getting passes swatted for INT's "beating themselves." In that sense, every team who is losing any game is beating themselves. In fact, it was OSU who had to rely on a special teams TD and trying fake punts (unsuccessfully) to try to stay in the game, and they were still losing until the 4th quarter. Furthermore the Gophers were not up 10 points well into the second half against Mich., or driving for the winning score as NU was with under 2 minutes before a controversial short spot on 4th down. In fact, with the Gopher offense, being down even 10 points is deceivingly *close* even though many have said that in a 42-13 game, a couple plays might've completely flipped a 28 point deficit (or even 21 if you charitably throw out the late TD).
 

Catechol said:
I wouldn't call "making mistakes" such as getting the ball stripped and getting passes swatted for INT's "beating themselves." In that sense, every team who is losing any game is beating themselves. In fact, it was OSU who had to rely on a special teams TD and trying fake punts (unsuccessfully) to try to stay in the game, and they were still losing until the 4th quarter. Furthermore the Gophers were not up 10 points well into the second half against Mich., or driving for the winning score as NU was with under 2 minutes before a controversial short spot on 4th down. In fact, with the Gopher offense, being down even 10 points is deceivingly *close* even though many have said that in a 42-13 game, a couple plays might've completely flipped a 28 point deficit (or even 21 if you charitably throw out the late TD).
Click to expand...

And if NU had a fraction of the caliber of the run defense that the Gophers have seen in Iowa and Michigan, I would say the Gophers have no chance. Fortunately, this is far from the case. Cripes, if not for a timely pair of pick-sixes in the second half, NU would have dumped to a BAD Cal team. NU is 74th against the run and a whopping 100th in Total Defense.

Northwestern is a solid middle of the pack BT team. This is a winnable game for the Gophers, especially if Mark and/or Colter are less than 100%. Last year the Cats had the extremely good fortune of going the entire season injury-free, best in the B1G in that regard. This year, maybe things even themselves out a little.

This should be a really good game, no doubt
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
Actually sports betting is one of the only forms of gambling you can actually win at. You control your own destiny as opposed to random cards, dice, etc. The house edge of 4.5% is a grind intended to beat you long term, so many sports betters, even average ones are able to win for entire seasons at a time. It's the lack of discipline/money management that ultimately does most sports betters in.
Click to expand...

As a person who has made a living as a contrarian investor l would be interested in hearing from you as how you decide when to place a bet. As far as I can tell there are way too many random events and factors that can impact the score of a game to justify making bets on football games. It can be done in horse racing per the book "Dr.Z's Beat The Racetrack". The method used is based on scientific methods and mathematics. It identifies and also includes the mathematical formulas needed to justify making a bet. It was written as at Ph.D. thesis and funded by I believe the Canadian government. It was based on theories of perfect markets and used a tremendous amount of data in developing the mathematical formulas.

I don't know how you make your decisions as to when to make a bet, but unless you are using a mathematical model similar the ones Matt H. uses, and then only after the first four or five games of the season have been played, I would be surprised that you are making money. If you are, you are definitely in a very small minority.

I would love to hear more about what your approach is.
 



Killjoy said:
As a person who has made a living as a contrarian investor l would be interested in hearing from you as how you decide when to place a bet. As far as I can tell there are way too many random events and factors that can impact the score of a game to justify making bets on football games. It can be done in horse racing per the book "Dr.Z's Beat The Racetrack". The method used is based on scientific methods and mathematics. It identifies and also includes the mathematical formulas needed to justify making a bet. It was written as at Ph.D. thesis and funded by I believe the Canadian government. It was based on theories of perfect markets and used a tremendous amount of data in developing the mathematical formulas.

I don't know how you make your decisions as to when to make a bet, but unless you are using a mathematical model similar the ones Matt H. uses, and then only after the first four or five games of the season have been played, I would be surprised that you are making money. If you are, you are definitely in a very small minority.

I would love to hear more about what your approach is.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that most sports bettors do use fairly complex math to determine their bets, and generally decide to place a bet when their EV+ for a given bet, based on the inputs they've decided to use, is greater than a given number (usually around 5% I think). Even at the beginning of a season there are a number of ways to get at information that transcends team...for instance, a lot of gamblers claim they can make money just by picking particularly juicy bets going against public tendencies (i.e. betting on the under of the points totals, or against popular "public" teams, like Alabama, or the Dallas Cowboys on money line wagers).

It's not football, but there have been a number of good articles lately that give a broad outline of the system used by a guy named Haralabos Voulgaris, who is one of the more successful NBA gamblers going right now. I believe ESPN had one of them.
 

Vegas generally gives the home team 3 points off the top for homefield advantage, which is to say on a neutral field, they think Northwestern is 10 points better than the Gophers. I don't see the folly in that...that spread sounds about right.
 

The Casino Sportsbooks aren't posting the game yet. Probably because no one knows who will QB the Wildcats. Maybe someone can explain what effect that would have on the spreads being offered off-shore.

Dr.Don?
 

Iceland12 said:
The Casino Sportsbooks aren't posting the game yet. Probably because no one knows who will QB the Wildcats. Maybe someone can explain what effect that would have on the spreads being offered off-shore.

Dr.Don?
Click to expand...

One would have to assume that the effect on the offshore spreads would be the same as the effect on the Vegas lines.

This is just speculation, but I know some of the offshore books have lower limits on the amount you can bet on one game, so that might allow them to post spreads for games that Vegas won't touch (because they get less sharp action?). Just a guess on that, though.
 



Iceland12 said:
The Casino Sportsbooks aren't posting the game yet. Probably because no one knows who will QB the Wildcats. Maybe someone can explain what effect that would have on the spreads being offered off-shore.

Dr.Don?
Click to expand...

This is an interesting one. Typically, I've heard the QB to be a solid 6-7 point swing in the line if they're out. Obviously it depends on the team and the situation. But in NUs case of splitting QBs, who knows what effect a missing Colter would make. Thing is, his absence also makes a dent in the NU passing game as a receiver as well.

Here's hoping the Cats are without both Mark and Colter this weekend. The Gophers are due for some good luck. They'll take all they can get
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
And if NU had a fraction of the caliber of the run defense that the Gophers have seen in Iowa and Michigan, I would say the Gophers have no chance. Fortunately, this is far from the case. Cripes, if not for a timely pair of pick-sixes in the second half, NU would have dumped to a BAD Cal team. NU is 74th against the run and a whopping 100th in Total Defense.

Northwestern is a solid middle of the pack BT team. This is a winnable game for the Gophers, especially if Mark and/or Colter are less than 100%. Last year the Cats had the extremely good fortune of going the entire season injury-free, best in the B1G in that regard. This year, maybe things even themselves out a little.

This should be a really good game, no doubt
Click to expand...

I wasn't trying to argue that this game would be anything but a fair matchup. I thought it odd that you seemed to imply that the NU-OSU and UMN-UMich games were basically the same, although NU led for the great majority of their game while the Gophers were never really close to taking command at any point after the first quarter.

Furthermore, regarding the Cal game - 2 pick sixes not a fluke when NU is ranked #1 in INTs halfway through the season. I could also say if the Gophers don't get 3 non offensive TDs and UNLV gets, say 2 FGs those took away, then that game is a tossup.

And though Cal is a bad team this year they have faced 3 top 10 teams as well as NU who was ranked. And they are stocked full of 4* athletes that were running an offense that no one had seen in its Cal incarnation yet. All of the Gophers' OOC opponents are sort of high FCS level at best, except SJSU who are just slightly above that based on Sagarin ranking.

Regardless, based on history this game is likely to be a barn burner.
 

Catechol said:
I wasn't trying to argue that this game would be anything but a fair matchup. I thought it odd that you seemed to imply that the NU-OSU and UMN-UMich games were basically the same, although NU led for the great majority of their game while the Gophers were never really close to taking command at any point after the first quarter.

Furthermore, regarding the Cal game - 2 pick sixes not a fluke when NU is ranked #1 in INTs halfway through the season. I could also say if the Gophers don't get 3 non offensive TDs and UNLV gets, say 2 FGs those took away, then that game is a tossup.

And though Cal is a bad team this year they have faced 3 top 10 teams as well as NU who was ranked. And they are stocked full of 4* athletes that were running an offense that no one had seen in its Cal incarnation yet. All of the Gophers' OOC opponents are sort of high FCS level at best, except SJSU who are just slightly above that based on Sagarin ranking.

Regardless, based on history this game is likely to be a barn burner.
Click to expand...

Do you ever get the feeling that nobody is listening?
 


Has anyone seen a Cats injury update? I believe Siemian got banged up late in the game too right? Didn't they also lose their best DT during that Badger game and their center their week before?
 

nokomismod said:
Has anyone seen a Cats injury update? I believe Siemian got banged up late in the game too right? Didn't they also lose their best DT during that Badger game and their center their week before?
Click to expand...

Didn't Colter get a little banged up as well?
 


Wildcat Extra (@Wildcat_Extra) tweeted at 10:34 AM on Tue, Oct 15, 2013:#Northwestern QB Kain Colter and RB Venric Mark did not participate in practice today.
 

jaymil said:
Wildcat Extra (@Wildcat_Extra) tweeted at 10:34 AM on Tue, Oct 15, 2013:#Northwestern QB Kain Colter and RB Venric Mark did not participate in practice today.
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting.
 




Dr.Don said:
Line as of today in Vegas: 5Dimes.eu MINN: +13 NW: -13 -110 -110 N/A o: 0 u: 0 MINN: 0 NW: 0 BOVADA MINN: +13 NW: -13 -110 -110 N/A o: 0 u: 0 MINN: 0 NW: 0 BETONLINE.ag MINN: +13 NW: -13 -110 -110 N/A o: 0 u: 0 MINN: 0 NW: 0 Fantasy911.com MINN: +13 NW: -13 -110 -110 N/A o: 0 u: 0 MINN: 0 NW: 0 SportsBetting.ag MINN: +13 NW: -13 -110 -110 N/A o: 0 u: 0 MINN: 0 NW: 0
Click to expand...

So if we shut them out we'll tie?
 




Killjoy said:
I didn't know station19 took bets. Do you get free Buffalo Wild Wings if you place a bet there?
Click to expand...

No, but free links to #1alphabetman quotes, and pre-approval to the Parski search party.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom