Give me your High End, successful, acceptable expectations for Kill and Co this year

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Miles Tarver

Miles Tarver

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High end

8-4 Wins over NM St, MiamiOH, ND St, Pur, Iowa, NW, Ill (and then stealing one of these 3, Mich, Neb, Wisc, Mich St) and playing New Years Eve bowl game

Successful

6-6 wins over NM St, MiamiOH, ND St, Purdue, Iowa and either @NW or vs Ill
play in a late December Bowl game

Acceptable
5-7 wins over NM St, MiamiOH, ND St, and 2 big tens wins
and then Look forward to being bowl eligible in 2012


I Know Kill hasnt promised anything, but with the NC schedule, and games vs Purdue, Ill, Iowa, and illinois, I dont think asking for 5 wins is to crazy
 

Two wins makes his inaugural season twice as successful as the last coach. Realistically, 3 last year so, 5 this year just because of the existence of a real coaching philosophy. Will mostly look to see a dramatic improvement in both D line and kicking/special teams. If so, then could see a surprisingly good season.
 

I'd have a hard time seeing 5 wins as acceptable. This team won 2 Big Ten games last year and returns most everyone. I'd have 6 wins as acceptable, 7 as low end successful and 8 plus as successful. There is no excuse for this team to lose any of the non-conference games other than USC, just like there was no excuse for the losses last year in the non-conference portion.
 

Id go with 6 as acceptable, 7 or more as a success...although if they start 7-0 and lose 6 straight, I would probably change my mind...
 

Trying to be realistic here - I could see this team finish with a low end of 4 wins, and a top end of 7.

Let's not forget, we're talking about a new coaching staff, new offensive system, new defensive system, new starter at QB, questionable depth at several positions (WR, DB), and questions about the kicking game.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to see the Gophs become the surprise of the year in the B10, but I honestly expect to see a lot of ups and downs this year as the team gets acclimated to the new staff and new schemes. Plus, I'm not sure the overall talent level is as high as some people seem to think. I see a team with some good athletes, but a lot of question marks, too. And for all the Kill love, he and his staff are coaching in a bigger conference and a higher level for the 1st time. The coaches have a learning curve, just as much as the players.

My ultimate expectation - a more entertaining team to watch. If we get that, I'll be happy no matter what the final record turns out to be.
 


6 wins, 3-5 in Big 10 is completely attainable. I disregard the "new system" argument. If anything, most of these guys have had a new system every year. There will be some big plays and big moments, and some not so good moments---but very few, if any, "what the hell?" moments. This staff knows what they are doing, and this is easily the best players they have ever had in a first year team. Yes, the competition is tougher, but 6 wins is attainable...by just playing smart.
 

As much as many like Coach Kill, myself included. There is not a huge amount of talent. 4-6 wins would be my high end. You just don't change coaches and go to a 7 or 8 win season. I've been to one practice, very thin in the secondary and at receiver. QB's were ok at best.
 

6 wins would be great, happy with 5 and satisfied with 4.
 

I will be conservative in my picks...

USC and Miami are both going to be pretty fair teams. I will guess from 2 to 3 ooc wins.

The Big Ten portion of the schedule is what I am really interested in.

With this schedule, there is a chance for 3 Big Ten wins. More likely, there will be 2 Big Ten wins. We will have a new qb. Hopefully, all of our qb's will stay healthy and avoid injury. So much to me depends upon the development of the running game. IF the Gophers can move the ball consistantly both inside and at times outside the tackles, it would do a LOT to take the heat off the qb. I also believe that the biggest key to the 2011 Big Ten season will be the play of the offensive line. IF you can run the ball and stop the run, you have a chance to compete against some of the Big Ten teams. To me, that also is true when playing ooc teams like USC and Miami, OH. The MAC is a pretty darn good football conference. I would NEVER overlook or feel too confident when playing one of the traditionally competetive MAC teams.

So, I could see the Gophers winning from 4 to 6 football games this fall. I, of course hope for more...but...I learned a long time ago to not EXPECT too much. It is always better to be pleasantly surprised than it is to hype the hope too high.

When it comes down to the Big Ten portion of the schedule, will will really see how well the discipline, conditioning and game planning and actual execution of the game plan by the players is coming along. I LOVE the Big Ten games and feel that the best way to assess the type of job our coaches are doing is to see where they finish in Big Ten play. After a few seasons, the Big Ten record becomes an excellent grading mechanism. That record will tell us all we need to know about every aspect of Big Ten Football. Year number one of the Big Ten Season will begin to give us some clues as to how our program, coach, his staff and the players are doing. Several years worth of Big Ten records will tell us the whole story.

Coach Kill has his job cut out for him in whipping this program into shape on the playing fields and in the classroom. We need our players to all be students as well as athletes. It will be instructive to us all to watch Coach Kill put his standards into place in HIS U of M Golden Gopher Football Program. We all know that Coach Kill has taken responsibility for every aspect of this football program beginning on the day he accepted the job. I LIKE that...a lot. Good luck to the coach, his staff and to all the student athletes who play football at the U of M.
 



Not gonna count W's

While it would be nice to get to at least 6, just to be bowl eligible (possibly a stretch goal). I'm more interested in seeing the following:

  • fewer dumb penalties
  • players improve from spring to summer to fall
  • good conditioning, especially evident in the 4th quarter (a Kill trademark)
  • Solid game plans and good coaching decisions. Seeing adjustments would be nice, too
  • Being able to think just possibly when it's 3rd and 13 we might get a stop
  • respectable special teams play

If Kill's team can achieve these things, or even the majority of them, I'll be able to look at the 2011 season as a success, regardless of the W/L record. The High End goal would be winning a rivalry game or a stellar upset in his first year. That, along with most of the bullet points in my list, have been sorely lacking the last 3 years.
 

nemosgold said:
I've been to one practice, very thin in the secondary and at receiver. QB's were ok at best.
Click to expand...

+1. I agree wholeheartedly. McKnight is going to draw tons of attention from opposing defenses, and Gray just doesn't seem accurate enough to me to make big throws in tight spots. He'll have a nice year, and will undoubtedly make some killer plays (especially with his legs), but without an outstanding running game (and we can keep our fingers crossed on this), I see the offense struggling due to the aforementioned WR & QB issues.

Also agree on DB situation...Stoudermire showed some skills last year, but hasn't even played a full year at CB. Royston is coming off a yearlong layoff. I like Carter's potential, but he's proven pretty inconsistent and not nearly physical enough. Once you get past these guys, you're really grasping at straws for any kind of depth. Manuel, Lewis, Henderson...yikes.
 

High End: 6-6
Successful: 5-7
Acceptable: 4-7

Realistic: 4-7
 

Beat the I-AA team this year and then move on from there.
 



Six would be great; eight would be amazing. I'd be disappointed below six - but remember, we don't know how Q's passing will go and the running game has not been much the past couple of years. Overall, though - despite a new set of coaches and new systems - I'm optimistic.
 

I think Miles Tarver has it right on...8-4 (high end), 6-6 (successful), 5-7 (acceptable)
 

This is a team that beat Iowa and Illinois when Brewster departed. It will be hugely improved from last year, but not a Big Ten contender. 3-1 OOC, 4-4 BT. 7-5. A righteous season after what we have been through. This is not a "new coaching staff" because it is not pieced together. It is a different coaching staff and a very good coaching staff. The speed of player development will shock most of us. It does lack depth and injuries will determine a lot of what happens.

7-5 regular season and a bowl win against a BCS team. 8-5.
 

Acceptable wins? 3 or 4 It all really depends on how good our opponents turn out to be.

USC: They won like 12 straight home openers. Their defense should be solid and they are loaded at the offensive skill positions. Their weakness will most likely be the offensive line. If Kills get to the QB philosophy works and Gray breaks some long runs we could upset them, but we'd have to play a near perfect game. I wonder how many new coaches have won their first game at USC.

NMST: We should have no trouble with these guys. They didn't win on the road last year and only once the year before and that was at in state rival New Mexico.

Miami: Even though their the toast of the MAC, I can't see us falling to the Redhawks. They won a ton of close games after several years of being absolutely abysmal. Last year was an outlier.

NDSU: We win if our offense puts points on the board early otherwise it becomes a nail biter ala SDSU two years ago or even worse USD last year.

Michigan: Who knows what to expect from Michigan? On the one hand they're Michigan and they'll have an edge in talent and the mystique that has undone us numerous time in the past. Their defense was terrible, but they hired a marquee name to be coordinator. They're switching from the spread to a pro style with a qb who is dynamic with his feet but unknown when he's taking snaps under center. Is Brady Hoke a turn-around wizard? That's up for debate. It will be the first trip to Ann Arbor for most of the guys on the team. Will the Big House intimidate them. If history is any indication, Kill and staff won't be intimidated.

Purdue: Poor Danny hope. This might be our most winnable conference game despite being on the road.

Nebraska: I doubt we'll get blown out, but the game won't be in question for long.

Iowa: Here's another mystery. They'll either be world beaters or mediocre. Either way this game will be tough.

MSU: They're not absolutely unbeatable, but they'll tough and it's on the road. During the Brewster years, this was the point of no return for the team. I think Kill's emphasis on good conditioning will help the team avoid the amount and severity of injuries the Brewster years were known for. Still, it's on the road against a team that share the conference title last year.

Wisconsin: This is the one game I want more than any other. I'm sure the team does too. I think the game and atmosphere will be a lot like the Iowa game was last year. A real grudge match. I was at Madison last year and if the players have any measure of pride they will be out for blood.

Northwestern: If Persa comes back 100% this game will be much like last years and the year before and the year before that. If not, then I think our chances are good.

Illinois: I'm not a Zook believer. He's a lot like Mason in that he seems to win just enough in critical situations to save his job. We've done really well agains the Illini in the last decade or so and the game is at home and in late November.

Best: 9-3
Likely: 6-6
Worst: 4-8
 

7-8
5-6
3-4

As of now, I'll predict 5 wins, and if the team can use it's talent level and (hopefully) better fundamentals to push around the weaker non-conference teams, I'll be happy with the direction of the team.
 

I like the Swede's comment above. "Beat the 1-AA teams". I would like to see us crush the Bison, absolutely lay the hammer down so we don't have to listen to these idiot Bison fans. They played us tough and beat the Gophers in the lowest era of U of M football's history. Now it's time to give them a dose of reality.

I would be happy this year with a 6-6 record and completely destroy the teams we "should" beat (aka the wanna be's from Fargo). Send a message this year maybe knock off a WI, MI or IA and next year lay the wood big time!

Everyone wants a winner so flippin' bad!! Why can't the season start today???!!!!
 


Giving the Pig back is totally unacceptable under any condition. We need another trophy to keep him company as well!
 

6 Wins

I'm pretty much right on with Miles Tarver and Indiana...

8-4 High End 6-6 Successful 5-7 Acceptable but I'll have angst, I'll be worried but grudgingly hopeful

Gotta win 6 games to make it work at Minnesota in my opinion. Possible to do it without it, but harder. I think many people forget...in almost all cases when you make a coaching change you have an all new staff. These guys are a coaching team. There is no learning period for each other to develop a philosophy and a direction as a coaching team or to feel comfortable with one another. The coaches are one. All on the same page. You cannot tell me the players need years to learn a system. You get two weeks to build a team each year in high school. Yes continuity helps there too. But people do win in their first year. Yes, these guys will develop players. We beat three bowl teams last year. Now you are saying 4 wins would be ok? But we are moving forward? We dumped two cupcakes last year..(we are a Big Ten school) 3 + 2 = 5
 

EG#9 said:
I'd have a hard time seeing 5 wins as acceptable. This team won 2 Big Ten games last year and returns most everyone. I'd have 6 wins as acceptable, 7 as low end successful and 8 plus as successful. There is no excuse for this team to lose any of the non-conference games other than USC, just like there was no excuse for the losses last year in the non-conference portion.
Click to expand...

Miami (OH) will not be an easy game.

I'd say anywhere from 4 to 8 wins. To get to 8, most everything will have to go right. Few injuries and guys like Gray really stepping it up and performing well.

As far as what's acceptable, it will depend largely on how we play all year long. I could be pretty disappointed with 4 or 5 wins, but also could be pretty happy with it. Just depends how we got there. Did we barely beat teams like NDSU and New Mexico St. and then get crushed by teams like Nebraska and Wisky? Or did we beat the weaker teams handily and look good against the better teams, just falling short because of lack of depth and talent at some positions? There's a big difference in my opinion, especially when we're rebuilding.
 

NDSU undergrad, U of Minn grad student here - started following U of M football team this spring (did not care much for Brewster). Kill and (more importantly IMO) his lifer coordinators seem very legit.

I would just like to point out to you folks who may not realize that Turner Gill, another successful MAC coach, went to Kansas last year - much the same way Kill went from NIU to U of Minn this year. In fact, you could also say the situations of each team in their respective conference are nearly identical if it weren't for the fact that Kansas had a recent blip as a top 10 program when they had a great QB.

(QB always has been and always will be the most important position. NDSU has lacked this since the QB that beat Brewster in 07 graduated - still looking but they have a freshman from Bismarck, ND that looks very promising and another from the same city coming in this fall with major potential)

Anyway, this is a Gopher thread on a Gopher board so I'll stop wasting your time and get to the point:

Gill's first Kansas team last year played NDSU to open the season and the Bison won 6-3. Kansas went on to win 3 games last year (including a good win over GA Tech), mostly blown out by Big XII teams.

Say whatever you want, I agree it's not the same situation and I hope you don't think I'm implying that exactly. Just don't look at the NDSU game as a victory to count on...you know it will be their superbowl (and their obnoxious fans too! :D )

Carry on. (PS - cheering for the Gophers in every game except the NDSU game!)
 

I think anything above 6 wins would be a success. 3 non-conference wins and 3 big ten wins would be a nice starting point for coach Kill. Transition years are so hard to predict - new systems - hard to tell how the current players will fit into those systems or adapt to them.
 

High end - Any bowl game
Acceptable - 5-7 or 6-6
Unacceptable - 4-8 or worse
 

5-7 :( Lose Floyd
6-6 ;) Keep Floyd
7-5/8-4 :) Keep Floyd, snatch Axe or L'il Jug Very Optimistic

  • Positive: Defense much improved
  • Negative: Offense lack solid running game
  • Neutral: Receiving Corpse development key
  • Positive: Offensive Line
  • Neutral: QB Play
  • Positive: Special Teams

You won't see very many blowouts against a Kill coached team.

Go Gophers!
 

This team is full of ?? and unknowns and the guys are learning yet another new system. Who would you pick for post season honors? McNight and Lair if our QB can get them the ball. Maybe Stoudamire if he can be consistent. Jacobs if he latches on to Claeys scheme? This team lacks proven top level players.

We could be 2-2 after the NC as Miami will be a challenge. I agree with Word "I think anything above 6 wins would be a success." Yet getting to six wins will be very tough.

My hope is we handle NDSU and NMS and win three of the marginal games (Miami, NU, Illini, Purdue, Michigan) and are competitive and manage one W against the top teams (USC, Neb, Wisky, Iowa amd MSU) .
 

I look at this season in particular in three parts:

1. The games we should win simply because we are a BCS program and they are not. (NDSU, NMSU, and Miami, OH). I really expect us to win these games, although they will be tough. Anything less than 3-0 will be a disappointment.

2. The rivalry games. (Jug, Axe, Pig) Would love to see our new team actually rise to the importance of certain games. Anything less than 1-2 will be disappointing.

3. The rest of the games. (USC, Neb, NU, Pur, Ill, MSU) I really don't expect anything in terms of W-L. It is a tough schedule and we have a new QB, which is always a giant question mark going into a season. I would like to see: aggressive play. Solid running game. Smart, accurate QB. Minimal turnovers and minimal penalties. Feisty, gritty team on the road, and a genuine mental expectation to always win at home. No W-L expectation here.
 

4 wins is my minimum. Anything more will be nice. People seem to forget that we're replacing a QB and went 3-9 last year (could have easily been 0-12, given all our wins were close). I will not vilify Kill should he "only" win 5 games.

I do however have to see improvement in understanding and execution. Four wins and sloppy play in game 12 would have me a lot more angry than four wins and consistent improvement throughout the year.
 

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