Fleck: "I think we can be a really good football team next year."

[MNVCGUY]

It is simple logic to understand that if you are behind in the product you are putting on the playing field you have to incrementally be better to finally take the lead.
If you believe the numbers in the 2021 class in the BIG West WI is #1 and 3# in the BIG. In the BIG MN is #8, NE is #7and IA is #6.
If IA and WI are already better than MN then the future does not look like unicorns and roses.

The part in bold is the key. There are those that truly believe those team rankings and won't allow for any sort of subjectivity in the analysis. They take it as gospel and believe we brought in the 4th best class in the West because that is what 247 says so it must be true.

Of course the reality is that we might have brought in the best class in the West and we might have brought in the worst class in the West or something in-between. Because what the recruiting sites can't know is who is going to transfer, who is going to flunk out, who is going to suffer a career ending injury, who is going to get beaten out by someone else on the roster..... All the recruiting rankings can do is give you a rough idea as to how talented your players are in relation to other recruits across the country. They have value as a guideline as to whether you are bringing in comparable talent to your rivals but they should not be taken as gospel or viewed as perfect because there is simply no possible way they could be with the sheer volume of players out there to be evaluated.

Easiest proof that team rankings only tell part of the story is to look at Nebraska and Wisconsin. Since 2010 Wisconsin has finished ahead of Nebraska in the Big Ten team rankings twice (2014 and 2020). That's it, just those two years.

Another example was on full display almost a year ago when the Gophers and their small number of 4* recruits dominated and Auburn team full of 4* and better recruits.

The important thing about the 2020 class is that it compares very favorably on paper to the classes signed by Iowa and Nebraska and is not far off the one signed by Wisconsin. Meaning the players we signed should give us the raw material to be able to compete with those teams. I could care less if it says we are #8 as long as we are bringing in guys with legit power 5 offers who look like they are going to be able to cut it in the Big Ten.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

For sure. Our trajectory:
5-7
7-6
11-3
3-4 during covid

Sky is falling!

Oh, I'm not saying the sky is falling either. I'm 100% still in the boat. I'm just saying that Kill did a remarkable job to build us into a 4-4 conference team.

 

[Some guy]

Oh, I'm not saying the sky is falling either. I'm 100% still in the boat. I'm just saying that Kill did a remarkable job to build us into a 4-4 conference team.

Kill took over a team that was 2 seasons removed from 6 wins and in 3 years turned us into an 8 win team

I think he did a good job too. I do think he gets too much credit.

 

[WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?]

How long you think til i can get some odds on Gophers over Ohio State?

Easy money. Here's your NCAA FB upset of the year.

 

[John Galt]

Those 30% all think recruiting rankings are everything?

I said this in another thread. There are 4 elements that make a team successful:
Recruiting (ie talent)
Retention
Player Development
Coaching

Are the Gophers right now better at player retention, development and coaching than Iowa or Wisconsin? This isn’t even a knock on PJ as those two programs have been really good in those 3 areas for a long time. It’s why recruiting rankings aren’t everything and Iowa/Wisky have outperformed compared to recruiting alone. If our staff isn’t as good or is only the same as our rivals in the other three areas, we better start recruiting better than them if we want to close the gap. Otherwise we’ll continue to wonder what happened year after year as we continue to struggle in rivalry games.

 

[John Galt]

The part in bold is the key. There are those that truly believe those team rankings and won't allow for any sort of subjectivity in the analysis. They take it as gospel and believe we brought in the 4th best class in the West because that is what 247 says so it must be true.

Of course the reality is that we might have brought in the best class in the West and we might have brought in the worst class in the West or something in-between. Because what the recruiting sites can't know is who is going to transfer, who is going to flunk out, who is going to suffer a career ending injury, who is going to get beaten out by someone else on the roster..... All the recruiting rankings can do is give you a rough idea as to how talented your players are in relation to other recruits across the country. They have value as a guideline as to whether you are bringing in comparable talent to your rivals but they should not be taken as gospel or viewed as perfect because there is simply no possible way they could be with the sheer volume of players out there to be evaluated.

Easiest proof that team rankings only tell part of the story is to look at Nebraska and Wisconsin. Since 2010 Wisconsin has finished ahead of Nebraska in the Big Ten team rankings twice (2014 and 2020). That's it, just those two years.

Another example was on full display almost a year ago when the Gophers and their small number of 4* recruits dominated and Auburn team full of 4* and better recruits.

The important thing about the 2020 class is that it compares very favorably on paper to the classes signed by Iowa and Nebraska and is not far off the one signed by Wisconsin. Meaning the players we signed should give us the raw material to be able to compete with those teams. I could care less if it says we are #8 as long as we are bringing in guys with legit power 5 offers who look like they are going to be able to cut it in the Big Ten.

Quit saying our class is comparable to Wisconsin’s. It isn’t- and your going to continue to be baffled with why we lose to them unless you can accept it. They had six, 6!, recruits rated higher than our highest recruit. They brought in 5-star offensive lineman for the second year in a row, in addition to 2 other 4-star o-linemen. We aren’t recruiting at the same level they are.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I said this in another thread. There are 4 elements that make a team successful:
Recruiting (ie talent)
Retention
Player Development
Coaching

Are the Gophers right now better at player retention, development and coaching than Iowa or Wisconsin? This isn’t even a knock on PJ as those two programs have been really good in those 3 areas for a long time. It’s why recruiting rankings aren’t everything and Iowa/Wisky have outperformed compared to recruiting alone. If our staff isn’t as good or is only the same as our rivals in the other three areas, we better start recruiting better than them if we want to close the gap. Otherwise we’ll continue to wonder what happened year after year as we continue to struggle in rivalry games.

Iowa has had the same program in place for 22 years, Wisconsin for nearly 32 years. You don't just completely eliminate that gap in 4 years.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Quit saying our class is comparable to Wisconsin’s. It isn’t- and your going to continue to be baffled with why we lose to them unless you can accept it. They had six, 6!, recruits rated higher than our highest recruit. They brought in 5-star offensive lineman for the second year in a row, in addition to 2 other 4-star o-linemen. We aren’t recruiting at the same level they are.

I know you are convinced that Dickerson is not coming here but if he does then Wisconsin has just 1 guy rated higher than him in their class. Their top 3 are also offensive lineman and I will continue to maintain that you don't need super high rated offensive line recruits to have a strong offensive line as those guys can be developed.

So yeah, Wisconsin's class is better on paper than ours but not by a massive margin and not at a level that says we won't be able to compete with them because their athletes are so much better than ours.

I'm not baffled as to why we lose to Iowa and Wisconsin in particular. Those programs have had great stability for a long time while we have not. I think Fleck is closing the talent gap between us and those teams with each recruiting class he brings in and we are getting to the point where we can compete with them on a yearly basis and contend for the top spot in the division as opposed to being an also ran.

 

[Some guy]

I said this in another thread. There are 4 elements that make a team successful:
Recruiting (ie talent)
Retention
Player Development
Coaching

Are the Gophers right now better at player retention, development and coaching than Iowa or Wisconsin? This isn’t even a knock on PJ as those two programs have been really good in those 3 areas for a long time. It’s why recruiting rankings aren’t everything and Iowa/Wisky have outperformed compared to recruiting alone. If our staff isn’t as good or is only the same as our rivals in the other three areas, we better start recruiting better than them if we want to close the gap. Otherwise we’ll continue to wonder what happened year after year as we continue to struggle in rivalry games.

Who disagrees with you?

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

I know you are convinced that Dickerson is not coming here but if he does then Wisconsin has just 1 guy rated higher than him in their class. Their top 3 are also offensive lineman and I will continue to maintain that you don't need super high rated offensive line recruits to have a strong offensive line as those guys can be developed.

So yeah, Wisconsin's class is better on paper than ours but not by a massive margin and not at a level that says we won't be able to compete with them because their athletes are so much better than ours.

I'm not baffled as to why we lose to Iowa and Wisconsin in particular. Those programs have had great stability for a long time while we have not. I think Fleck is closing the talent gap between us and those teams with each recruiting class he brings in and we are getting to the point where we can compete with them on a yearly basis and contend for the top spot in the division as opposed to being an also ran.

Not sure what recruiting class you are looking at but this is what is shown on Rivals for 2021. WI is #5 and Gophers #35.

SCHOOL	TOTAL	5 STARS	4 STARS	3 STARS	AVG	POINTS

Minnesota

17

0

2

15

3.12

1401

Wisconsin

21

1

8

12

3.48

1989

 

[John Galt]

Not sure what recruiting class you are looking at but this is what is shown on Rivals for 2021. WI is #5 and Gophers #35.

SCHOOL	TOTAL	5 STARS	4 STARS	3 STARS	AVG	POINTS

Minnesota

17

0

2

15

3.12

1401

Wisconsin

21

1

8

12

3.48

1989

If you look at the 247 composite rankings, Wisconsin finished 16th and we finished 28th. That’s a difference of 12 spots. For reference, Georgia finished 4th and Clemson finished 5th. We’re as close to Wisconsin in recruiting as they are to Clemson and Georgia. But some are convinced we’re “closing the gap” and right there with them. We aren’t. Our recruiting has improved, but so has Wisconsin’s, so we aren’t closing the gap at all.

 

[John Galt]

I know you are convinced that Dickerson is not coming here but if he does then Wisconsin has just 1 guy rated higher than him in their class. Their top 3 are also offensive lineman and I will continue to maintain that you don't need super high rated offensive line recruits to have a strong offensive line as those guys can be developed.

So yeah, Wisconsin's class is better on paper than ours but not by a massive margin and not at a level that says we won't be able to compete with them because their athletes are so much better than ours.

I'm not baffled as to why we lose to Iowa and Wisconsin in particular. Those programs have had great stability for a long time while we have not. I think Fleck is closing the talent gap between us and those teams with each recruiting class he brings in and we are getting to the point where we can compete with them on a yearly basis and contend for the top spot in the division as opposed to being an also ran.

I’m not sure why you keep arguing your ridiculous point that we are close to Wisconsin. You’re now even trying to argue that o-line recruits don’t count as much? Lick your wounds and move on.

 

[MplsGopher]

Not at all trying to say he's right.

But just saying: if 7-8 of Wisconsin's top 10 recruits over a few year period are all Offensive Tackle prospects .... that can't be sustainable. Not all of those guys can start. Only two of them can.

 

[bonin21]

But just saying: if 7-8 of Wisconsin's top 10 recruits over a few year period are all Offensive Tackle prospects .... that can't be sustainable. Not all of those guys can start. Only two of them can.

This sounds like a good problem to have, and sure they'll figure it out

 

[MplsGopher]

This sounds like a good problem to have, and sure they'll figure it out

Well yeah, the guys who get beat out will leave. No skin off Sconny's back.

Hopefully Mahlman is one of those. He can go join Benhart at Neb and get pushed around.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I’m not sure why you keep arguing your ridiculous point that we are close to Wisconsin. You’re now even trying to argue that o-line recruits don’t count as much? Lick your wounds and move on.

You got me, we should just forfeit the Wisconsin game going forward because their athletes are so superior to ours we have no shot.

Clearly you think we are at a massive talent disadvantage against Wisconsin and the rest of the West, I disagree. Guess we will see how it plays out over the next few years.

In my opinion we are bringing in talent that is on par with the teams we are directly competing against in our Division. That was not the case a few years ago as we have upped our game a lot on the recruiting front in the past few seasons.

 

[btowngopher]

When we have played Iowa and Wisconsin the last three years, I don’t see a massive talent gap. I see us not executing as well as them. How did we steam roll Wisconsin three years ago? I didn’t see a massive talent gap this year, yes I know they had players out, well we were missing guys too. We looked like the more talented team against Iowa last year for most of the game.

 

[btowngopher]

I’m not sure why you keep arguing your ridiculous point that we are close to Wisconsin. You’re now even trying to argue that o-line recruits don’t count as much? Lick your wounds and move on.

If all your high rated guys are always olinemen then it does seem to imply the other position groups are less talented.

 

[btowngopher]

Signing just one more 3 star guy rated like Darius Green would make us leap Iowa, Nebraska, and PSU and move us all the way up to 21. However this is also assuming Dickerson signs.

 

[btowngopher]

Yes. The 30% of posters that graded our 2021 recruiting class an A.

Unless our coaching, development, and retention sucks. Classes ranked 28 will have us competing for the west most years. Iowa and NW do so with worse, even Wisconsin is typically worse.

 

[Plato]

To set the record straight.
I do not think any college FB recruiting web site is very accurate in predicting results on the field.
Their use of five significant figures to describe a recruit or the cumulative score for a particular program is math malpractice in the third degree.
There are too many variables including the very important one of position coaches and the skill set of the veterans on the team.
Both of these are significant in how raw recruits do or do not progress.
The attitude of the recruit to learn from coaches and follow the examples of the veterans are equally important.
Then add injuries and the number of variables continues to increase making accurate predictions difficult.
WI and IA have solid and veteran position coaches who are the point persons for recruiting with the HC sealing the deal.
Position coaches who do not produce are made redundant.
To me inadequate position coaches has been the biggest cause of failure in the recent past and present NE teams.

 

[Some guy]

To set the record straight.
I do not think any college FB recruiting web site is very accurate in predicting results on the field.
Their use of five significant figures to describe a recruit or the cumulative score for a particular program is math malpractice in the third degree.
There are too many variables including the very important one of position coaches and the skill set of the veterans on the team.
Both of these are significant in how raw recruits do or do not progress.
The attitude of the recruit to learn from coaches and follow the examples of the veterans are equally important.
Then add injuries and the number of variables continues to increase making accurate predictions difficult.
WI and IA have solid and veteran position coaches who are the point persons for recruiting with the HC sealing the deal.
Position coaches who do not produce are made redundant.
To me inadequate position coaches has been the biggest cause of failure in the recent past and present NE teams.

Yeah. Class rank is pretty worthless. I do think there is a lot of merit to looking who is in your neighborhood.

but if Wisconsin finishes 15th, Minnesota finishes 27th, and northwestern finishes 35th....to me it means they’re all in the same neighborhood.

I’d be more concerned if Wisconsin was 20th, Iowa was 25th, and Minnesota was 77th

 

[John Galt]

You got me, we should just forfeit the Wisconsin game going forward because their athletes are so superior to ours we have no shot.

Clearly you think we are at a massive talent disadvantage against Wisconsin and the rest of the West, I disagree. Guess we will see how it plays out over the next few years.

In my opinion we are bringing in talent that is on par with the teams we are directly competing against in our Division. That was not the case a few years ago as we have upped our game a lot on the recruiting front in the past few seasons.

Quit making me defend Wisconsin, please. Why do you think they have won 15 of 16 in the series? Why has it been so one-sided? Why couldn’t we win Saturday, even when their offense was gutted with injuries? Part of the answer is obvious, but you seem unwilling to admit that they have been and still are a more talented team.

But keep convincing yourself that we are closing the gap, and then scratching your head every year as to what went wrong and how we could have lost.

 

[John Galt]

Signing just one more 3 star guy rated like Darius Green would make us leap Iowa, Nebraska, and PSU and move us all the way up to 21. However this is also assuming Dickerson signs.

Why would you possibly include a recruit who didn’t sign and is now interested in Oregon?

 

[Some guy]

Why would you possibly include a recruit who didn’t sign and is now interested in Oregon?

To point out how close the recruiting classes are.
If the gophers add one mid level player people sing a different tune.

Likewise....if 4 players in this class leave Minnesota before contributing and 5 players leave those other schools classes Minnesota essentially beat them.

Everyone is real close. It will come down to who got kids who are better fits long term

 

[holereader]

This is an odd post for a lot of reasons. Sanford is new and never got time to fully implement his offense. Tanner isn’t really going “backwards,” it’s more that he doesn’t have Bateman and TJ to throw to this year. They made an average QB look really good last year. And that’s not even a knock on Tanner, as he is better than what we have had for a while, but not as good as what we now expect. This job was a step up for Stanford and I would be shocked if he chose to move on.

I guess he’s replaced Bateman and TJ with safeties and linebackers. He panicked in the pocket when pressured and cannot improvise - a bit one dimensional - as with every year the QB position should be an open competition for 2021 maybe one of those red shirts is ready

 

[John Galt]

Unless our coaching, development, and retention sucks. Classes ranked 28 will have us competing for the west most years. Iowa and NW do so with worse, even Wisconsin is typically worse.

I don’t think our coaching, development and retention sucks. Except for retention with the 2018 class. But I don’t think the biggest PJ supporter would say it’s better than NW, Wisky or Iowa right now. Our recruiting has improved dramatically from where it had been. Unfortunately, our rivals have also improved in recent years, so we haven’t closed any gap.

 

[holereader]

So after 4 years of superior recruiting and having the hottest young coach in college football, the best we should expect is to be able to compare him to two head coaches ago?

we're not going to have a new coach anytime soon, and i haven't heard anyone say Fleck should be fired. But we hired Fleck because we wanted more.

4 years in and we have little talent on defense. A team that was woefully unprepared for the season - and let's not forget, everyone had the same handicap this year - a losing conference record, and a team talent ranking in the big10 that is a mild improvement over the year before he took over.

Those are the facts. Yes, An improvement in results on the field and in the standings is a part of the expectations for anyone having a job as a head football coach. Not sure why anyone would look at this season and be happy with the results.

I might also add he is 1-7 against Iowa and Wisconsin - I’m skeptical that he can turn this around - just saying

 

[salzie]

Or Leidner ...wait he had the same coach for years.

I've never put a poster on ignore before, but your leidner bit is exhausting

congrats, you're the first.

 

[Some guy]

I don’t think our coaching, development and retention sucks. Except for retention with the 2018 class. But I don’t think the biggest PJ supporter would say it’s better than NW, Wisky or Iowa right now. Our recruiting has improved dramatically from where it had been. Unfortunately, our rivals have also improved in recent years, so we haven’t closed any gap.

If you don’t think we have closed the gap you must have missed the best season in the last 40 years last year.

Yes they lost to wisconsin and Iowa....but the reason Wisconsin and Iowa are so good is because they rarely lose to bad teams.

Minnesota has lost to 2 bad teams in 2 seasons (20 Maryland and 20 Michigan)
That is the fewest losses to bad teams in a two year stretch in my memory.