It was occurring to me today that Minnesota's wins this year were a bit lucky so I went back to look:
Michigan: trailed most of the game, got it to OT and hit a near half-court buzzer beater to avoid 2nd OT. At one point in the game, the probability of victory was 6.6%
@iowa: close through first half, got a lead in 2nd, and got a little closer at end. This one MN was the better team, though the low point was still a probability of 18%.
Oregon: most game-controlled win of the year, leading most of the game (low point 33% win probability)
@PSU: started out badly, but turned it around and pulled away late against a Niederhauser-less Nits (low point 9% win prob)
@USC: absolute miracle - they had a 6% chance to win with 24 seconds left
@UCLA: 7% chance with 2:09 left.
There haven't been many close losses, with the exception of the OSU game - that was one that MN had a 95% chance of winning in the first OT.
So, I would say at least 3 of the 6 wins were improbable and maybe give them one back for OSU. This should be a 4 win team.