Final "Field of 68 Projection" (March 16, 1:38 a.m.) UPDATED: 100% Correct

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Do they alert the "first four" teams early so they can start travel for a Tuesday night game at Dayton vs Dayton?
 






Looks like SS was perfect again. SMU and Iowa are locks, eh Lunardi and Palm? SS ate your lunch.
 

Perfect. Lunardi and Palm know nothing. TMZ...er...ESPN cannot pimp itself very much this year.
 





Congrats SS - great work. Sad you weren't 35/36 but so it goes.
 

Hodger is always better and more informed than the national guys. Reason #267 why I go to GopherHole before any other site for Gopher sports news.
 

Great job on getting NC State. Not many had them.
 

So far, only one of 70+ brackets on bracketmatrix had NC State in.
 



Hodger, you're a sorcerer. Congrats on a perfect forecast.

That said, NC State?!?
 



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Wellman said the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Gophers&src=hash">#Gophers</a> record on the road and vs. top 50 were the biggest things that held Minnesota back.</p>— Amelia Rayno (@AmeliaRayno) <a href="https://twitter.com/AmeliaRayno/statuses/445370442174717953">March 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>On flipside, the reason the committee liked NCSU was the Wolfpack's road victories: Syracuse (neutral), Pittsburgh & Tennesee away from home</p>— Amelia Rayno (@AmeliaRayno) <a href="https://twitter.com/AmeliaRayno/statuses/445370992106688512">March 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Go Gophers!!
 

Great job SS.

Time to get you on one of the networks.

Who's your Final Four?
 

Only 3 of 121 bracketologist picked NC State for the tournament. Just pointing out what a great pick it was by SS to get that one.
 

SS, I really enjoyed reading your posts leading up to Selection Sunday. Great job!!
 

Great work SS, I trust your work as much as anyone's with this "Bracketology" stuff, and this is just more confirmation of why that is.
 

SS, by chance are you actually on the Selection Committee? Then your 100% doesn't look so fancy.
 


BarnBoy said:
SS, by chance are you actually on the Selection Committee? Then your 100% doesn't look so fancy.
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It is unreal how SS seems to get inside the head of the selection committee. The math and analysis only gets you so far... in the end, there is quite a bit of subjectivity in picking the last couple teams, and the determining factor seems to vary year to year, so to exactly match the committee time and again is uncanny.

Last year the results pretty strictly followed RPI (with the exception of obvious 'paper tigers' like Southern Miss). That would've gotten us in this year.
 

WanderingGopher said:
It is unreal how SS seems to get inside the head of the selection committee. The math and analysis only gets you so far... in the end, there is quite a bit of subjectivity in picking the last couple teams, and the determining factor seems to vary year to year, so to exactly match the committee time and again is uncanny.
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Appreciate all the comments, I really do. Thanks.

To be fair, I want to reiterate that I've only been perfect selecting the at-larges 3 times in the 23 years I've been doing this. Here are my updated numbers, followed by head-to-head results vs. Lunardi and Palm over the last 5 seasons.

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2013-14)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
Totals: 750/793 (94.6%)

SelectionSunday At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
Last 5 Years: 176/181 (97.2%)
Since Field of 68: 143/147 (97.3%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)
Since Field of 68: 142/147 (96.6%)

Jerry Palm (CBSSports.com) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)
Since Field of 68: 141/147 (95.9%)

Time to go into hibernation for awhile!
 

SelectionSunday said:
Appreciate all the comments, I really do. Thanks.

To be fair, I want to reiterate that I've only been perfect selecting the at-larges 3 times in the 23 years I've been doing this. Here are my updated numbers, followed by head-to-head results vs. Lumardi and Palm over the last 5 seasons.

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2013-14)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
Totals: 750/793 (94.6%)

SelectionSunday At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
Last 5 Years: 176/181 (97.2%)
Since Field of 68: 143/147 (97.3%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)
Since Field of 68: 142/147 (96.6%)

Jerry Palm (CBSSports.com) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)
Since Field of 68: 141/147 (95.9%)

Time to go into hibernation for awhile!
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From the guy who said following every JoeBlow's bracket is a waste of time... I would say following your projections is worth while. Nice work.
 


NC State

If I didn't know SS better, I would guess that he was in on the conspiracy with the Wake AD (Chair of the committee) to get another ACC team in the tournament. Surprised there hasn't been more talk of politics in the room. The Wake/ACC/NC State connection makes for a great conspiracy chat.

Perfecto in a year that was more difficult than it seems in the last couple years. Maybe I just wanted it to be more difficult to give the Gophers a fighting chance to dance.

Nice job, SS. I have always been trusting of your analysis and this confirms it.
 

Holy Man said:
If I didn't know SS better, I would guess that he was in on the conspiracy with the Wake AD (Chair of the committee) to get another ACC team in the tournament. Surprised there hasn't been more talk of politics in the room. The Wake/ACC/NC State connection makes for a great conspiracy chat.

Perfecto in a year that was more difficult than it seems in the last couple years. Maybe I just wanted it to be more difficult to give the Gophers a fighting chance to dance.

Nice job, SS. I have always been trusting of your analysis and this confirms it.
Click to expand...

Yep, good job.
 


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