Final "Field of 68 Projection" (March 16, 1:38 a.m.) UPDATED: 100% Correct

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One additional thing I'll add is there seems to be more variance among the different teams getting in.

I blame conference re-alignment for this as no one is absolutely sure how the American, a revised Atl-10, etc., will do.
 

MadtownGopher said:
I hope we get some kind of explanation for SMU if they are such a lock. The committee is seriously sending the message that you should avoid playing a tough schedule to rack up easy wins.
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In the past, the committee has been pretty firm on this. Last year they made an exception with MTSU getting in, but that seemed more of a bid to appease the minor conferences.
SMU doesn't fit that category this year. Generally there are teams in the mid-major area with RPI's 30-50 who don't get in, but if you're major conferences, you still get in.

I'm not sure how the committee will look at that this year.
 

Looks like it may be closer than ever this year.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>JUST IN: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Selections&src=hash">#Selections</a> Committee is down to 8 teams! They’re evaluating who’s the last 4 in and who’s the last 4 out. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23soclose&src=hash">#soclose</a></p>— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) <a href="https://twitter.com/marchmadness/statuses/445198873670062080">March 16, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Thanks SS, your analysis is convincing. I also think that, while the committee doesn't expressly look at conference, they would feel good about giving the ACC six bids.

What did us in is not only our own failures IMO, as large as they were. From around the time of our game Friday through last night, we were on a ridiculously bad run of our prior opponents doing nothing but losing, one right after another, pushing our RPI down inch by inch. If OSU and Wiscy had won yesterday, I honestly think we might have made it, being able to say we beat the conf finalists. We were also done in by Syracuse plummeting without Johnson and Grant, which effectively gave the ACC another bid, the Big East getting at least one more bid than they deserved, and (IMO just ridiculous) things falling the wrong way in the decent-but-not-anywhere-near-the-B1G Atlantic Ten.
 

scools12 said:
strength of schedule and strength of conference favor the Gophers but you have to do better than 2-8 against the top 50 RPI I would think for those to even come into play.
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Of course, that statistic is misleading since Iowa, FSU, and Richmond all were firmly in the top 50 around the time we beat them and much of the time thereafter.
 


Nice work SS - nobody better than you at this game.

Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis have SMU in the tourney.

SOS should propel the Gophs in this year, imo.
 

Still can't understand Lunardi's love for Iowa. We've discussed how the Gophers should arguably above Iowa in the pecking order, yet Lunardi has us out, and he doesn't even have Iowa as one of his last 8 teams in.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
Looks like it may be closer than ever this year.
JUST IN: #Selections Committee is down to 8 teams! They’re evaluating who’s the last 4 in and who’s the last 4 out. #soclose— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 16, 2014
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Wow. I'm kind of surprised that it's Sunday, and they still don't have the last 4 teams figured out. Don't they start meeting on Thursday or am I making that up?
 

Great work, SS. Though you are as accurate as anyone, this gives me a ray of hope. I don't think NC State will be in. However, I fear SMU is who replaces them and not the Gophers. Iowa getting in over us will be hard to take.
 



Selection Sunday is my choice for Prognosticator of the Year.
 

SS, would you have had Providence in if they'd lost last night?
 

WanderingGopher said:
Of course, that statistic is misleading since Iowa, FSU, and Richmond all were firmly in the top 50 around the time we beat them and much of the time thereafter.
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I can see that argument being made but the ultimately those 3 wins at this point aren't as good by the numbers as they once were.
 

matt said:
Wow. I'm kind of surprised that it's Sunday, and they still don't have the last 4 teams figured out. Don't they start meeting on Thursday or am I making that up?
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Yeah I believe they have been meeting in Indy all week. CBS just had the chair of the committee on and he said they have all the teams selected now. He was asked about injuries factoring in and just from the way he answered I thought it seemed like BYU will end up in which I would definitely disagree with.
 






WanderingGopher said:
Thanks SS, your analysis is convincing. I also think that, while the committee doesn't expressly look at conference, they would feel good about giving the ACC six bids.

What did us in is not only our own failures IMO, as large as they were. From around the time of our game Friday through last night, we were on a ridiculously bad run of our prior opponents doing nothing but losing, one right after another, pushing our RPI down inch by inch. If OSU and Wiscy had won yesterday, I honestly think we might have made it, being able to say we beat the conf finalists. We were also done in by Syracuse plummeting without Johnson and Grant, which effectively gave the ACC another bid, the Big East getting at least one more bid than they deserved, and (IMO just ridiculous) things falling the wrong way in the decent-but-not-anywhere-near-the-B1G Atlantic Ten.
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Yes, in the aggregate this has been a very big factor. Syracuse, Richmond, Iowa and OSU especially.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I am blaming a lot of bad plays/stretches by the Gophers before I blame Ryan or Gasser. Missed layups made the difference against Purdue. A lot of sloppy and stupid plays cost us that game.
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I also blame poor planning for the team flight, land hours before the game, that team wasn't going to have a strong first half
 

Doubt I'm even going to watch as SS pretty much has removed any hope. Dre going down against Badgers and Walker missing those two baskets at the buzzer are going to be my haunting images of this season. Not putting it on Mo either, but, damn!
 





Quite frankly, I don't care about predictions. They are a waste of time in my book. That's why I'm here posting in this projection thread.
 






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