Coyle's miscalculations as I see them

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Golden Shower said:
Great players help hide the coaching flaws (Xs and Os). Pitino recruited to an average level and therefore all his flaws as a coach were on full display. Great Recruiting requires a good talent evaluator and someone who connects with people. Richard seemed average on both of those also. His recruiting was never going to get better so his time had to come to an end. We don’t know if Ben will be a recruiter of great players yet but the bar is low. Hopefully he brings in an experienced coach or two to his staff to help with the Xs and Os. I trust his ability to evaluate talent better than Pitino’s because he actually played basketball at this level. I’m willing to give him some time before I draw any conclusions on whether this was a good hire or not.
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How many great coaches were established recruiters first, and learned how to coach second? I can't think of many.

Most of the great coaches today established their system first, and the higher rated recruits came after the wins started.
 

bizzle22 said:
He’s indisputably a better hire on paper. Based on what Johnson is getting paid I’m not sure it’s safe to say Smith would have been drastically more expensive. Haven’t seen the buyout figures, but based on the salary numbers I’m doubting there isn’t a pretty standard buyout in Johnson’s contract. We’ll find out when it’s released.

Craig Smith may not have been a sure thing. Heck, no one is. But based on his resume there would be reasonable hope that we could consistently finish top 4 in the conference. He’s done that everywhere else he’s been. 3 for 3 in making the NCAA tournament at Utah State. We’ll never know how he could have done here, but I’m willing to bet we’ll find out how he can do at a Power 6 job soon because it’s almost certain he’ll get hired to one in the very near future.
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I’d argue it’s a worse hire on paper because he would be equally as unsuccessful here and make more money losing than Johnson will make losing
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
My only argument is that it's a pretty good basketball conference and could give folks a pretty good indication of whether or not someone can coach. It's one of the better conferences outside of the P6.

We use this logic every time we are excited about a recruit, draft pick, etc.

"This guy dominated the highest class of football in Texas" is a selling point. It's not a guarantee the player will turn out well.
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Yeah I agree with you.

I disagree with people who say Medved and Craig smith = Lon Kruger and Musselman (not you)
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Again - my point is about Coyle.

People are questioning Coyle's judgement when it comes to Johnson.
But they loved Coyle's choice of Fleck.
Same AD. Same process.
Did Coyle suddenly become stupid?

If you thought Coyle was a good AD for hiring Fleck, did he suddenly become a bad AD?

Bottom line - the Gophers finished 13th out of 14 teams in the B1G last year. Could it really get that much worse?

It's not like the Gophers won a B1G title last year, and just hired an unproven coach. The Gophers are coming off a bad year, and hired an unproven coach.

Let's see what happens. If Johnson signs a couple of top in-state recruits, a lot of the people on here bashing the move will be changing their tune.
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It is strange that you view these two hires as analogous. They were made by the same person yes, but in your experience if a person makes a correct decisions are all following decisions correct?
 

Some guy said:
If by terrible you mean already the best hire of my lifetime even if they go 1-11 the next two years...then yes. Terrible
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How about just under .500 the next three?
 



I guess I would like a little more information on Johnson's AAU connections. It seems pretty settled they played a large role in the decision. Who specifically are the connections with? What payoff can we expect from the connections? Badger level recruits? Or are these connections strong enough to land the big boys? Are these connections going to be strong enough to sway the high level recruits are way or this going to be a "we love Coach Johnson and they made my top 5, but I am still going to go to Duke?"

There aren't concrete answers to these questions, but since the local AAU connection played such a big part, just wondering if anyone had more in depth answers to what the extent of the connections are?
 


PMWinSTP said:
So your answer to my question is...
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If I think 1-11 the next 3 years would still have him the best hire of my lifetime...why would a record of 5-7 make it a worse hire?

Logically I just thought you could figure out that if he did better than I said in my post that I wouldn’t feel worse than I explained in my post?
I might be misreading your post
 



Spaulding!No! said:
And how would these conversations go.
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I have no idea. Just trying to make sense of this hire. The only thing i can come up with is that somehow coyle felt EXTREMELY assured that local recruiting would significantly improve under johnson. Certainly diversity issue played a role as well.
 

Some guy said:
Yeah I agree with you.

I disagree with people who say Medved and Craig smith = Lon Kruger and Musselman (not you)
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Maybe I missed some posts, but I don’t know of anyone saying those coaches are all equal.

Medved’s resume is much weaker than all of them including Smith.

Kruger is just in a totally different category having been a college head coach for 35+ years and at 4 different Power 6 schools.

Smith and Musselman are actually somewhat comparable. Musselman won 75.4% of his conference games in the Mountain West. Smith has won 76.4%. Musselman has the pro experience and has performed better in the NCAA tournament. In the one year both Smith and Musselman were competing against each other in the Mountain West they tied for first in the conference and split their 2 games against each other. Musselman has a stronger resume when you include what he has done this year at Arkansas, but the two aren’t drastically different.
 

bizzle22 said:
Maybe I missed some posts, but I don’t know of anyone saying those coaches are all equal.

Medved’s resume is much weaker than all of them including Smith.

Kruger is just in a totally different category having been a college head coach for 35+ years and at 4 different Power 6 schools.

Smith and Musselman are actually somewhat comparable. Musselman won 75.4% of his conference games in the Mountain West. Smith has won 76.4%. Musselman has the pro experience and has performed better in the NCAA tournament. In the one year both Smith and Musselman were competing against each other in the Mountain West they tied for first in the conference and split their 2 games against each other. Musselman has a stronger resume when you include what he has done this year at Arkansas, but the two aren’t drastically different.
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Musselman took Nevada to the sweet 16
Smith has never won a tourney game.

that’s the biggest difference in resume.
 

I expect the AD to be smarter than me, so I'll judge this hire like I do any other hire: results. It is Coyle's job to know when the hype around a hot commodity is just hype, and when there is a diamond in the rough that no one else is looking at. I don't care how good a hire looks when it is made, I care how it looks when all is said and done. If Fleck, Whalen, or Motzko ends up with us stuck at the bottom of the B1G standings, its a bad hire. I don't care if I've never heard of the coach at the time we hire them, if they start stringing together championships, its a good hire.
 



MRJ said:
Well stated.

Coyle has now cemented the program as "learning-on-the-job university." Same thing he's doing on the women's side with Whalen.

In other words, expect more of the "be patient" crap both tomorrow in coming years that this fanbase has been force-fed for decades on-end.
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PJ was and is not learning on the job. If he is, he's doing a great job of faking it till he makes it.
 

Otis said:
PJ was and is not learning on the job. If he is, he's doing a great job of faking it till he makes it.
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I said the program, as in men's basketball. Fleck has nothing to do with it.
 

Some guy said:
Musselman took Nevada to the sweet 16
Smith has never won a tourney game.

that’s the biggest difference in resume.
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Sure, it’s a difference and I said I agree Musselman’s is stronger. But they aren’t drastically different. The NCAA tournament is a very small part of the season.
 

bizzle22 said:
Sure, it’s a difference and I said I agree Musselman’s is stronger. But they aren’t drastically different. The NCAA tournament is a very small part of the season.
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The ncaa tournament is where a small conference coach can prove that they can coach on the big stage against teams with comparable talent.
So I agree with you. But hiring a small school guy with no tourney success basically means to me they are a good enough coach to win in a small conference and nothing more.

My opinion doesn’t really matter. But my opinion is my opinion. I can’t believe how many people are offended by me saying Craig Smith wouldn’t have moved the needle for me any more than Johnson does.
 

Some guy said:
The ncaa tournament is where a small conference coach can prove that they can coach on the big stage against teams with comparable talent.
So I agree with you. But hiring a small school guy with no tourney success basically means to me they are a good enough coach to win in a small conference and nothing more.

My opinion doesn’t really matter. But my opinion is my opinion. I can’t believe how many people are offended by me saying Craig Smith wouldn’t have moved the needle for me any more than Johnson does.
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I’m not offended. Just offering a different opinion and some facts that I think support that opinion.
 

bizzle22 said:
I’m not offended. Just offering a different opinion and some facts that I think support that opinion.
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You aren’t. Some are. And they’re so intense about it they come on here and insult me for not thinking he is the second coming

I received a private message from one!
 

60's Guy said:
Ben seems like a nice guy. He seems smart. That’s good, but the nice guy part?
Is Beard a nice guy? Underwood? Izzo? Cronin? Coach K? Huggins? Boeheim? Popavich?
My point...lots of successful coaches are jerks. Very demanding. My way or see ya.
Nice, quiet can work but it’s harder and early success seems important if it is your style. And also under the circumstances it seems unlikely.
Ben isn’t even sure what his way is. Pitino after learning from Rick and Billy said he learned a lot just this past season. Ben has a long journey.
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The my way or the highway routine is less acceptable now.
I would put Brad Stevens in the nice guy camp.
You don't have to be a hard ass to get the best out of players, especially now.
A more cerebral approach may be better. One your from now we should have a better answer to this hire. For now, I like it as it is a different direction than has previously been tried and failed.
 

GFBfan said:
The my way or the highway routine is less acceptable now.
I would put Brad Stevens in the nice guy camp.
You don't have to be a hard ass to get the best out of players, especially now.
A more cerebral approach may be better. One your from now we should have a better answer to this hire. For now, I like it as it is a different direction than has previously been tried and failed.
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I don’t have as much experience in basketball but the best coaches in most sports are people that coach as they are as a person.
Trying to be a hard ass when you aren’t doesn’t work.
Trying to be friendly guy when you aren’t doesn’t work.

All kinds of ways can work. Being fake to yourself doesn’t work 100% of the time
 

Wow we have a lot of psychics on this this board. So as psychics you can of course answer all these questions.

1. Who else did Coyle interview?
2. Who if anyone was offered the job and turned it down?
3. Who declined to be interviewed for the job?

A lot of assumptions being made by people that have zero clue how this process played out. Coyle very well may have pursued Smith, Gates, Mussleman....and been turned down. Bottom line is that the Johnson hire is surprising but it is way too early to make any sort of definitive statements about how it is going to work out.

I get it, this is a fan board full of people who assume they know everything about everything and that they could do the jobs better than the people who actually get paid to do those jobs. But holy crap, some of the stuff being tossed around about this hire is way over the top even for a message board.

How about giving Johnson a chance to fail before assuming he is going to? This is a risky hire to be sure but we don't know if it is a risk taken because the "safer" choices said no or because Coyle passed on those choices in order to hire Johnson.

The truly shocking thing about this reaction is that in a state in love with the concept of "one of us", a local boy was just given the opportunity of a lifetime and we have a section of the fanbase who has already decided he is going to be a massive failure.
 

Some guy said:
If I think 1-11 the next 3 years would still have him the best hire of my lifetime...why would a record of 5-7 make it a worse hire?

Logically I just thought you could figure out that if he did better than I said in my post that I wouldn’t feel worse than I explained in my post?
I might be misreading your post
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I misread yours. Thought you were agreeing saying that 1-11 the next few would mean it was a terrible hire. To me, in those scenarios he would have had the best season in my lifetime, not be the best hire. It would mean the same or worse overall results for a lot more $$.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I misread yours. Thought you were agreeing saying that 1-11 the next few would mean it was a terrible hire. To me, in those scenarios he would have had the best season in my lifetime, not be the best hire. It would mean the same or worse overall results for a lot more $$.
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It’s all nuance in how you say things...

Like was Steve Sarkisian a bad hire for USC because he happened to relapse his alcoholism in his second year? I still think that was a good hire by them at the time? Not really a right or wrong answer
 

Some guy said:
It is possible that he just fell victim to the same thing Teague and fans on this board fall victim to. Thinking you don’t have to overpay for a coach and then quickly falling down the list.

like what if Craig smith said, I’ll come but I need 4 million because I’ll get other jobs in the next few years. And we don’t have 4 million.


Minnesota is a bad basketball job
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Possible. But for smith $2M with incentives is a 100% increase. Big balls if he turns a big ten team down with that in mind. This range is also fairly standard for someone not proven at an elite level. For the Cleveland state guy this would be like a 500% increase. No way he turns it down. Maybe these guys get $3-$4M somewhere but I doubt it.
 

Torres9 said:
Possible. But for smith $2M with incentives is a 100% increase. Big balls if he turns a big ten team down with that in mind. This range is also fairly standard for someone not proven at an elite level. For the Cleveland state guy this would be like a 500% increase. No way he turns it down. Maybe these guys get $3-$4M somewhere but I doubt it.
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Craig Smith might take one job for 2.5 million but need 4 million to take a worse job (us)

We have no idea
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Coyle hires Fleck - Fans say "A great Hire. What a decisive move by the AD to sign the hottest young coach on the market."

Coyle hires Ben Johnson. Fans say "what a terrible hire. What the Bleep is Coyle thinking?"

Same AD. Same process (no search firm).

If you think Coyle hit a home run with Fleck, why are fans so quick to dismiss his hiring of Johnson?
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Because one was the hottest name in coaching and could've picked where he wanted to go... the other couldn't get a mid major head coaching job and was wanted by zero other teams.
 

leib0039 said:
Few thoughts. Someone compared Johnson to Whalen. While yes in terms of coaching they are technically equal, I would argue Whalen is one of the best female basketball players ever. She not only played at the highest level but played under coaches like Geno, Reeve Etc. That counts for something in terms of coaching.

Next, I have continued to say I am underwhelmed but we also don't know the other conversations Coyle had. Maybe D1MN, Grassroots, Pulley etc all told him in no uncertain terms Johnson was they key that would unlock the local treasure chest of talent. But it is no doubt a giant risk and it's more than possible that Coyle may not have to fire Johnson because if this is a huge flop he might get the ax first. We have no choice to hope this works for at least the next few years so let's do this Ben!
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Ted Williams was probably the greatest hitter in the history of baseball and he had a .429 winning percentage during his three years as a baseball manager. Why did someone who was a supremely gifted player who played just under 2,300 games at an extremely high level have a middling record as a manager? Probably had something to do with the level of talent he had at his disposal as a manager.
 

PMWinSTP said:
And lots are not.
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Maybe so, but none come to mind. John Wooden was inflexible. Who are these successful nice guys? Bob Knight? Rick Pitino? Bill Musselman? Geno Auriemma?Tubby? Calipari? I can’t think of any? Nice guys I can thinks of...yes, but successful as basketball coaches, no.
It’s a minority for sure or we know them differently.
 


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