Coyle's miscalculations as I see them

I think he was serious.

Put me in the camp that doesn't understand the overwhelming support for Craig Smith.
Seems like a great guy with a sense of humor and a good coach, but nothing there so far that says "WE NEED THIS GUY AS COACH".

To be fair, Ben Johnson doesn't seem to fit that criteria either, but that decision has been made.
People should NOT be thinking I am disparaging Craig Smith to say Ben Johnson is a good hire.

I don’t know, but I assume Coyle doesn’t think any of the experienced guys we could’ve landed could get the job done here. So he went unconventional and cheap. The good news is, it will be easier to get rid of Ben Johnson in 2024 than it would be to get rid of Craig Smith in 2024.
 

This is such a ridiculous comparison it's tough to know how to respond. Maybe start by comparing their respective conference winning % and take it from there.
You’re right. It is ridiculous to not be that enamored with a guy who has never won an ncaa tournament game.

I will change my behavior and praise a coach that lost to South Dakota state this year
 

Let's see what happens. If Johnson signs a couple of top in-state recruits, a lot of the people on here bashing the move will be changing their tune.
Just landing a couple of top in-state recruits might satisfy some to begin with but if Johnson doesn’t win enough games the in-state recruiting won’t matter.
 

People should NOT be thinking I am disparaging Craig Smith to say Ben Johnson is a good hire.

I don’t know, but I assume Coyle doesn’t think any of the experienced guys we could’ve landed could get the job done here. So he went unconventional and cheap. The good news is, it will be easier to get rid of Ben Johnson in 2024 than it would be to get rid of Craig Smith in 2024.
I kind of agree with you.
This Craig Smith love is out of bounds.

How many MWC coaches have moved on somewhere else and won?
How many MWC coaches have won NCAA games.

Fun conference, but let's not pretend winning games in that conference means you're going to beat Michigan during the regular season.
 

Yeh, and the MWC has shown to be the only conference weaker in the NCAA's than the Big Ten has performed.

Not only did they all lose, no game went to the wire even.
Even historically.
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
Pac 12
SEC

Big east
American

Atlantic 10


I would put the Mountain west and Missouri Valley in the next tier after that.
 


I kind of agree with you.
This Craig Smith love is out of bounds.

How many MWC coaches have moved on somewhere else and won?
How many MWC coaches have won NCAA games.

Fun conference, but let's not pretend winning games in that conference means you're going to beat Michigan during the regular season.
Utah state has 20 wins....here are 16 of them:

Northern Colorado
Northern Iowa
College of Idaho
San Jose State x2
Air Force x2
New Mexico x2
Colorado state x2
UNLV x2
Fresno x2
Wyoming


They had some good games and good wins, hence making the tourney. But they had a lost to the team that finished last in their conference this year.

I wouldn’t have been mad if we hired Craig Smith but I would’ve felt a similar emptiness that I’m feeling with the Ben Johnson hire.
 

Well stated.

Coyle has now cemented the program as "learning-on-the-job university." Same thing he's doing on the women's side with Whalen.

In other words, expect more of the "be patient" crap both tomorrow in coming years that this fanbase has been force-fed for decades on-end.
This is what I see as one of Coyle's big miscalculations: that the fan base is good with this approach, which he's now taken with both basketball programs. I've already seen several posts here bashing fans for their disappointment, as if it's our fault that we're always being disappointed and our duty to be happy with the state of the program no matter what. Next we'll be bashed for not spending thousands of dollars to renew season tickets, as if it's a sacrifice we're supposed to place on the altar of the U.

Which leads to the related miscalculation: not realizing how sick this program is right now. Attendance and energy is lower than I've ever seen, and now we're asked to accept a step back even further and take an even bigger risk than eight years ago? Really? How resilient does he think a program and fan base can even be?

The other huge miscalculation is putting all the eggs in the basket of local ties, relationships, and Minnesota recruiting. As much as I've argued that we ought to exploit the increased talent in the area, hiring an unqualified coach in the HOPES of tapping into that--even though it's legal to get players from anywhere in the world--is incredibly foolish. Again, Coyle did it with Whalen, and he didn't learn from that mistake. Hey, it's bound to work one of these times!
 

This is what I see as one of Coyle's big miscalculations: that the fan base is good with this approach, which he's now taken with both basketball programs. I've already seen several posts here bashing fans for their disappointment, as if it's our fault that we're always being disappointed and our duty to be happy with the state of the program no matter what. Next we'll be bashed for not spending thousands of dollars to renew season tickets, as if it's a sacrifice we're supposed to place on the altar of the U.

Which leads to the related miscalculation: not realizing how sick this program is right now. Attendance and energy is lower than I've ever seen, and now we're asked to accept a step back even further and take an even bigger risk than eight years ago? Really? How resilient does he think a program and fan base can even be?

The other huge miscalculation is putting all the eggs in the basket of local ties, relationships, and Minnesota recruiting. As much as I've argued that we ought to exploit the increased talent in the area, hiring an unqualified coach in the HOPES of tapping into that--even though it's legal to get players from anywhere in the world--is incredibly foolish. Again, Coyle did it with Whalen, and he didn't learn from that mistake. Hey, it's bound to work one of these times!
Whalen was the exact opposite of this hire. Whalen was hired to sell tickets immediately and peak fan interest immediately.

The Johnson hire might cost the program tickets

I see the resume comparison but I don’t think they’re the same type of hire.
 

Utah state has 20 wins....here are 16 of them:

Northern Colorado
Northern Iowa
College of Idaho
San Jose State x2
Air Force x2
New Mexico x2
Colorado state x2
UNLV x2
Fresno x2
Wyoming


They had some good games and good wins, hence making the tourney. But they had a lost to the team that finished last in their conference this year.

I wouldn’t have been mad if we hired Craig Smith but I would’ve felt a similar emptiness that I’m feeling with the Ben Johnson hire.
Now list Ben Johnson’s wins as a head coach. Let’s compare the lists.
 




Now list Ben Johnson’s wins as a head coach. Let’s compare the lists.
I’m not talking about Ben Johnson?
I don’t think Ben Johnson is a good hire.


Does Ben Johnson being a bad hire make Craig smith a great hire?


Craig smith probably a better hire on paper.
Craig smith a worse hire if you pay nothing to get rid of Johnson in 2024 instead of paying a few million to get rid of smith in 2026
 

Regardless of how it goes from this point forward, it was a GREAT hire.
Yeah I don’t get how people can argue this. The team has been nationally talked about for the first time in anyone born after 1980’s lifetime. Our next hire would be better because of the success fleck has already had.
 

I’m not talking about Ben Johnson?
I don’t think Ben Johnson is a good hire.


Does Ben Johnson being a bad hire make Craig smith a great hire?


Craig smith probably a better hire on paper.
Craig smith a worse hire if you pay nothing to get rid of Johnson in 2024 instead of paying a few million to get rid of smith in 2026
This is exactly what I'm talking about when I say that the U outsmarted itself and why sound decision making is so rare. It seems many fans and observers have a hard time seeing things clearly and are inclined to outsmart themselves. Craig Smith is simply and clearly a fantastic basketball coach, and that's based on his significant resume as a head basketball coach and the quality of basketball his teams play. Making it any more complicated than that is what confused people do.
 



This is exactly what I'm talking about when I say that the U outsmarted itself and why sound decision making is so rare. It seems many fans and observers have a hard time seeing things clearly and are inclined to outsmart themselves. Craig Smith is simply and clearly a fantastic basketball coach, and that's based on his significant resume as a head basketball coach and the quality of basketball his teams play. Making it any more complicated than that is what confused people do.
Craig smith hasn’t won an ncaa tourney game in 7 years as a d1 head coach.

craig smith lost to UNLV this year

Sorry if I don’t think he is a slam dunk to become perennial top 5 in a league where the conference champ lost to a mid tier ACC school
 

Coyle is going to be fired before the stadiums are full again. If the reports on salary parity (with Richard) are true than this doesn’t make any sense at all. The local / recruiting angle is such a weak argument that I just can’t see a power 5 ad getting sucked into something so asinine. Recruits want to play for a good coach that (1) wins, and (2) can get them to the nba. Nobody gives a fuck if you’re “from here”.

This feels like a close-your-eyes Hail Mary, but on 2nd down with 60 seconds on the clock. Utterly inexplicable
 

Coyle is going to be fired before the stadiums are full again. If the reports on salary parity (with Richard) are true than this doesn’t make any sense at all. The local / recruiting angle is such a weak argument that I just can’t see a power 5 ad getting sucked into something so asinine. Recruits want to play for a good coach that (1) wins, and (2) can get them to the nba. Nobody gives a fuck if you’re “from here”.

This feels like a close-your-eyes Hail Mary, but on 2nd down with 60 seconds on the clock. Utterly inexplicable
It is possible that he just fell victim to the same thing Teague and fans on this board fall victim to. Thinking you don’t have to overpay for a coach and then quickly falling down the list.

like what if Craig smith said, I’ll come but I need 4 million because I’ll get other jobs in the next few years. And we don’t have 4 million.


Minnesota is a bad basketball job
 

It seem like recruiting, particularly in state recruiting was the impetus for hiring Ben Johnson. Supposedly Ben has good relationships with both high school and AAU coaches in the state. The issue is that Ben has those relationships as an assistant coach. The bar for Ben has changed now that he’s the head coach. He’s now the youngest, least accomplished coach in the Big Ten and possibly in all of the power 5 conferences. When the recruit and mom and dad (or coaches, guardians, parents, etc) meet Ben, what does he have to sell them? He’s a first year head coach. “Ok, so he’s inexperienced that’s a concern, but I am sure he’s worked for someone impressive”. He’s not worked for any big time coaches and the staffs he’s been on have been to 1 NCAA tournament in the last 8 years. “Ok, but my main focus is the NBA, can he get me/my son there?” He’s recruited one NBA 2nd round draft pick to Minnesota and another player that got a 2 way contract. Throw in the fact that he’s taking over a program that has been through the worst stretch in its history and there’s not much for Ben to sell.

From a fan standpoint, I think Coyle got the frustration with losing out on in state kids right, but missed the part that it is a secondary frustration to losing. If Minnesota was finishing ahead of Wisconsin in the standings regularly, you might hear some complaints about the in state recruiting, but they’d be made while people actually were invested in the program (attendance, TV ratings, donations, etc). The annoyance is first with the record and then the fact that Wisconsin is outperforming Minnesota with a lot of the B/C type recruits from Minnesota on their roster. Now if Ben keeps those kids home, he’s not winning unless he’s a Gard or Ryan level coach. The average Wisconsin roster coached by a bottom tier Big Ten coach is going to be playing on the first day of the Big Ten tournament every year. Fans are going to be unhappy with a roster of 50% or more of Minnesotan’s if they are winning 40% of their Big Ten games.

The important thing was to hire a coach who had won previously and that you had confidence would win at Minnesota quickly for a suffering fan base that just spent 8 years with the worst coach in its history. This isn’t a fan base that has a desire to be patient with someone who might learn on the job and might be good in X number of years. Jeff Goodman had a note that Coyle also interviewed Ronald Nored a former player at Butler that is now an assistant with Charlotte in the NBA. Nored is 31 years old. It’s pretty clear that Ben wasn’t the only candidate Coyle looked at that fit the “project” label. The fact that Coyle is paying Ben ~2 million plus incentives also shows that he didn’t pass on the proven mid major guys for monetary reasons, he simply preferred the young up and comer type.

It’s now going to be public knowledge that Ben just recently interviewed for, and didn’t get, the Northern Illinois job. That is a horrible look for the Minnesota program and a horrible look for Coyle. That’s just yet another hurdle for a program that needed a jolt in a positive direction after years of poor management.

It should go without saying that none of this is Ben Johnson’s fault, but I’ll type it out to be clear.

}�����Ώ

At first I was shocked by this hire. But after sleeping on it I think this is going to turn out great! It’s only a horrible look for people who are looking for negatives.
 

People should NOT be thinking I am disparaging Craig Smith to say Ben Johnson is a good hire.

I don’t know, but I assume Coyle doesn’t think any of the experienced guys we could’ve landed could get the job done here. So he went unconventional and cheap. The good news is, it will be easier to get rid of Ben Johnson in 2024 than it would be to get rid of Craig Smith in 2024.
I don’t think 2 million is cheap.
 


This is what I see as one of Coyle's big miscalculations: that the fan base is good with this approach, which he's now taken with both basketball programs. I've already seen several posts here bashing fans for their disappointment, as if it's our fault that we're always being disappointed and our duty to be happy with the state of the program no matter what. Next we'll be bashed for not spending thousands of dollars to renew season tickets, as if it's a sacrifice we're supposed to place on the altar of the U.

Which leads to the related miscalculation: not realizing how sick this program is right now. Attendance and energy is lower than I've ever seen, and now we're asked to accept a step back even further and take an even bigger risk than eight years ago? Really? How resilient does he think a program and fan base can even be?

The other huge miscalculation is putting all the eggs in the basket of local ties, relationships, and Minnesota recruiting. As much as I've argued that we ought to exploit the increased talent in the area, hiring an unqualified coach in the HOPES of tapping into that--even though it's legal to get players from anywhere in the world--is incredibly foolish. Again, Coyle did it with Whalen, and he didn't learn from that mistake. Hey, it's bound to work one of these times!
Points make sense except I think he's shown he can recruit more than just regionally. While Coyle and others mention his MN ties and keeping talent at home, I think we should just care can he lure talent, period. The transfer portal is exploding in numbers. Can he work that? Let's see.

Coaching side is impossible to know at this point.

I think early some early indicators for how 'smart/shrewd' he is, will be what kind of staff he puts together.
 

At first I was shocked by this hire. But after sleeping on it I think this is going to turn out great! It’s only a horrible look for people who are looking for negatives.
MN didnt win the press conference, so some here will be ecstatic.
 

Ben seems like a nice guy. He seems smart. That’s good, but the nice guy part?
Is Beard a nice guy? Underwood? Izzo? Cronin? Coach K? Huggins? Boeheim? Popavich?
My point...lots of successful coaches are jerks. Very demanding. My way or see ya.
Nice, quiet can work but it’s harder and early success seems important if it is your style. And also under the circumstances it seems unlikely.
Ben isn’t even sure what his way is. Pitino after learning from Rick and Billy said he learned a lot just this past season. Ben has a long journey.
And lots are not.
 

I kind of agree with you.
This Craig Smith love is out of bounds.

How many MWC coaches have moved on somewhere else and won?
How many MWC coaches have won NCAA games.

Fun conference, but let's not pretend winning games in that conference means you're going to beat Michigan during the regular season.
Eric Musselman and Lon Kruger off recent memory.
 


Fleck had gone 12-0 at Western Michigan before as a head coach. What the U needs to realize is that they should be hiring similar level schools assistant coaches or lower level school head coaches with a track record of success.

They did the same thing with President Gabel, an assistant President from a lower university, and now Coyle is doing it now.
Completely missing SON's point.
 

Coyle hires Fleck - Fans say "A great Hire. What a decisive move by the AD to sign the hottest young coach on the market."

Coyle hires Ben Johnson. Fans say "what a terrible hire. What the Bleep is Coyle thinking?"

Same AD. Same process (no search firm).

If you think Coyle hit a home run with Fleck, why are fans so quick to dismiss his hiring of Johnson?
Because I had watched Fleck's team give Wisconsin a good battle in a major bowl game. Johnson seems like a hire where it's very fair to question why Coyle did what he did. It seems based on nothing tangible as far as results from actual games played.
 

Eric Musselman and Lon Kruger off recent memory.
Eric Musselman made a sweet 16 at Nevada. Lon Kruger im not going to pretend is a mountain west coach considering he was the head coach at k state in the 1980s

But he also made a sweet 16 out of the mountain west.


Craig smith and Niko Medved have combined for 0 tourney wins.
Niko has never even made a tourney.



Not saying you’re arguing smith and Medved are as good as Kruger or Musselman.

would be real excited for Musselman or Kruger
 

Eric Musselman made a sweet 16 at Nevada. Lon Kruger im not going to pretend is a mountain west coach considering he was the head coach at k state in the 1980s

But he also made a sweet 16 out of the mountain west.


Craig smith and Niko Medved have combined for 0 tourney wins.
Niko has never even made a tourney.



Not saying you’re arguing smith and Medved are as good as Kruger or Musselman.

would be real excited for Musselman or Kruger

My only argument is that it's a pretty good basketball conference and could give folks a pretty good indication of whether or not someone can coach. It's one of the better conferences outside of the P6.

We use this logic every time we are excited about a recruit, draft pick, etc.

"This guy dominated the highest class of football in Texas" is a selling point. It's not a guarantee the player will turn out well.
 

Eric Musselman made a sweet 16 at Nevada. Lon Kruger im not going to pretend is a mountain west coach considering he was the head coach at k state in the 1980s

But he also made a sweet 16 out of the mountain west.


Craig smith and Niko Medved have combined for 0 tourney wins.
Niko has never even made a tourney.



Not saying you’re arguing smith and Medved are as good as Kruger or Musselman.

would be real excited for Musselman or Kruger
Lon Kruger also coached at Illinois and Florida.
 

I’m not talking about Ben Johnson?
I don’t think Ben Johnson is a good hire.


Does Ben Johnson being a bad hire make Craig smith a great hire?


Craig smith probably a better hire on paper.
Craig smith a worse hire if you pay nothing to get rid of Johnson in 2024 instead of paying a few million to get rid of smith in 2026
He’s indisputably a better hire on paper. Based on what Johnson is getting paid I’m not sure it’s safe to say Smith would have been drastically more expensive. Haven’t seen the buyout figures, but based on the salary numbers I’m doubting there isn’t a pretty standard buyout in Johnson’s contract. We’ll find out when it’s released.

Craig Smith may not have been a sure thing. Heck, no one is. But based on his resume there would be reasonable hope that we could consistently finish top 4 in the conference. He’s done that everywhere else he’s been. 3 for 3 in making the NCAA tournament at Utah State. We’ll never know how he could have done here, but I’m willing to bet we’ll find out how he can do at a Power 6 job soon because it’s almost certain he’ll get hired to one in the very near future.
 




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