Confernce Realignment Chaos is Here!!!!!! (maybe ... probabbly not) (Rumor Texas and OK reach out to SEC about joining)

Been reading some articles about what happens to the remaining teams in the Big 12 assuming TX and OK leave for the SEC.

I found several people discussing some kind of a merger between the Pac 12 and remaining Big 12 teams - possibly resulting with a 20-team mega-conference.

For the leftover teams in the Big 12, there is really no one they could add that would allow them to retain Power-conference status for FB. So, they either resign themselves to lower status and lower money, or try to make a deal with the Pac 12.

I think all of this probably leads to 4 mega-conferences. And a few teams could find themselves standing when the music stops, and be forced to fall to second-tier status.
Good point, imo. I just don't see what the remaining teams in the Big12 have to offer the Pac12?

It's not about tv markets anymore. Competition wise, ISU will be good this year, but looking like a huge drop off after this season. Also think there will be as very large segment of Texas high school football that will turn away from the current Big12 with the loss of OU and Texas.

Am still worried Kevin Warren will muck this up unless someone with influence is in his ear. Gene Smith and Alvarez better be close by.
 

Been reading some articles about what happens to the remaining teams in the Big 12 assuming TX and OK leave for the SEC.

I found several people discussing some kind of a merger between the Pac 12 and remaining Big 12 teams - possibly resulting with a 20-team mega-conference.

For the leftover teams in the Big 12, there is really no one they could add that would allow them to retain Power-conference status for FB. So, they either resign themselves to lower status and lower money, or try to make a deal with the Pac 12.

I think all of this probably leads to 4 mega-conferences. And a few teams could find themselves standing when the music stops, and be forced to fall to second-tier status.
I could see something like this happen. Using pre-TX/OK move.
ACC has 14, B12 10, B10 14, P12 12, SEC 14= 64. breaks into 4 16 team conferences pretty easily. I'm sure there will be some musical chairs while this all happens, but having a 20 team conference gets difficult from a logistics in FB (are you playing 9 conference games now and eliminating cross overs?) vs 16 allows you to play an annual cross over game to continue to see your other schools on occasion. Same with BB (you now have 19 conference games already on the slate in theory and we play 20 in the B10, the SEC plays 18, P12 18).
 

Been reading some articles about what happens to the remaining teams in the Big 12 assuming TX and OK leave for the SEC.

I found several people discussing some kind of a merger between the Pac 12 and remaining Big 12 teams - possibly resulting with a 20-team mega-conference.

For the leftover teams in the Big 12, there is really no one they could add that would allow them to retain Power-conference status for FB. So, they either resign themselves to lower status and lower money, or try to make a deal with the Pac 12.

I think all of this probably leads to 4 mega-conferences. And a few teams could find themselves standing when the music stops, and be forced to fall to second-tier status.
I think most of the stronger brands in the Pac 12 (USC/UCLA/Washington/Stanford/Cal/Colorado) will join the Big Ten. Then the Arizona schools and maybe Utah join what’s left of the Big 12. Wash State and Oregon State end up in the Mountain West or also head to the Big 12. And I have no idea what happens to Oregon in that scenario.
 

The Big Ten is still the richest conference with the best TV deal and thus does not have to do anything reactive. It’s still the core league for a large and populous part of America.

Whatever others do college football is not going to leave us behind so there’s no need to go panic buy Iowa State or dissolve 100 years of tradition to merge with the PAC 12 or something dumb.

Big Ten should relax. It holds the cards in nearly any situation.
 

I think most of the stronger brands in the Pac 12 (USC/UCLA/Washington/Stanford/Cal/Colorado) will join the Big Ten. Then the Arizona schools and maybe Utah join what’s left of the Big 12. Wash State and Oregon State end up in the Mountain West or also head to the Big 12. And I have no idea what happens to Oregon in that scenario.
At a certain point it's just dumb. You're basically back to two ten team conferences at that point. You'd be better off just forming a pact to negotiate a joint media rights contract a la the old CFA.
 


At a certain point it's just dumb. You're basically back to two ten team conferences at that point. You'd be better off just forming a pact to negotiate a joint media rights contract a la the old CFA.
I suspect that could be a logical end for a large number of teams if they're smart and band together ... if you have enough teams the sheer overall geography would be appealing... rather than sweating this market or that.
 
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I have no enthusiasm for this - super conferences. OU and TX would be thrown in with teams they have little in common with, lots of late TV appearances which would hurt, pull them away from regional, historic foes, make travel difficult for fans. You can smell the money, but as usual when money is the only thing, the smell is bad.
 

I could see something like this happen. Using pre-TX/OK move.
ACC has 14, B12 10, B10 14, P12 12, SEC 14= 64. breaks into 4 16 team conferences pretty easily. I'm sure there will be some musical chairs while this all happens, but having a 20 team conference gets difficult from a logistics in FB (are you playing 9 conference games now and eliminating cross overs?) vs 16 allows you to play an annual cross over game to continue to see your other schools on occasion. Same with BB (you now have 19 conference games already on the slate in theory and we play 20 in the B10, the SEC plays 18, P12 18).

I already said what I think will happen with this. 20 teams conferences with four, five team divisions. Each team plays the other four in their division and then each division crosses over with one per year.....which makes for nine conference games per year. Means that in a three year span....each team will see every other team in the conference at least once. AND it eliminates the disparity between division teams and crossover difficulty. Not to mention...it sets up four division winners for a tournament to crown the champ. There's money to be made here.

It would be smart for the G5 conferences to move towards this immediately. More games would give more teams a shot to make the 12 team playoffs.
 

OH NO NO NO
 

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This is going to be a mess.
 

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I already said what I think will happen with this. 20 teams conferences with four, five team divisions. Each team plays the other four in their division and then each division crosses over with one per year.....which makes for nine conference games per year. Means that in a three year span....each team will see every other team in the conference at least once. AND it eliminates the disparity between division teams and crossover difficulty. Not to mention...it sets up four division winners for a tournament to crown the champ. There's money to be made here.

It would be smart for the G5 conferences to move towards this immediately. More games would give more teams a shot to make the 12 team playoffs.
I mean, it's an idea but I think this is short-sighted and has many downsides on top of that.

1. Geography. To make a 20 team conference you're going to be absorbing more geography. For the G5, that means a ton of travel which is a logistical nightmare/cost issue for teams that aren't rolling in the money like the B10, SEC, P12.
2. Viewership. You open up a "market" when you take someone in, sure, but USC fans are not tuning in to watch MD and vice versa unless they're just fans of college football and they are already tuningm into those games and generating you revenue anyway.
3. Unbalanced divisions/conferences. If you're going to try stack this geographically, you're going to have some divisions which are drastically better than others, similar to what we see in the NFL, and will eliminate your opportunity to have 2 heavy weights in a division get into the dance at the end (ie Bama and GA go 12-0 and 11-1, one of them isn't even a division winner, much less a conference winner and that isn't going to be looked on well). Sure it helps a team if they go 14-0 when they're G5, but any time a G5 loses a game it hurts them and an already conflated view of the P5 is going to exist and you're just limiting their opportunities
4. approximately 10-12 of these teams will never have a chance. Some of them are going to be previously have been good. Do they want to sit on the bottom of the conference every single year with no chance to win?
5. Bowl games probably have to go away. If you're going to try play 9 conference games, plus 2 to lead to a CC plus maintain some semblance of non conference to try say your conference is good, you're going to run out of time AND be asking guys to potentially play 12+2+3 games a year if they were to go all the way through. Again this is a scheduling nightmare.
6. More games don't necessarily mean more chances to get in. go look at the rankings as they are. If we're moving to 12, here's how many G5 get in each year
2020: 2
2019: 0 (best G5 teams were (3 of them) 12-1 that year)
2018: 1 (next best team was 11-2)
2017: 1 (next best team was 10-2)
2016: 0 (best team was 13-0, PJs WMU)
2015: 0 (best team was 12-1)
2014: 0 (best team was 11-2)
The CFP committee has shown they don't give a shit about the G5 and their best bet to get in is to play and beat P5 teams. You beat 14 G5 teams, sure you get in but if you lose one it isn't looking awesome and you're definitely out if you lose twice.

There's a reason that leagues have kept conference sizes around where they have. It is harder and harder to control all of those within the conference when the size grows. If the conferences go to 20, I very much see happening what another poster mentioned in that the lower teams will either see all interest in their team die or will fracture off and start a new conference. It makes no sense for the Vandys, Ole Miss's, Arkansas's to get demolished year in and out. Maybe we just should go to the soccer model as it's essentially what you're proposing when the conferences get this large as 10 teams will have nothing to play for halfway through the year
 

This is going to be a mess.
If this happens I am boycotting ESPN, Disney+ and the "SEC." The only way this happens is if OSU, Michigan and Penn State lose all hope in the leadership of the B1G. I am wondering if during Covid-19 the B1G leadership let politics play to big of a roll in decision making and didn't seem to back athletics and the athletes.
 



If this happens I am boycotting ESPN, Disney+ and the "SEC." The only way this happens is if OSU, Michigan and Penn State lose all hope in the leadership of the B1G. I am wondering if during Covid-19 the B1G leadership let politics play to big of a roll in decision making and didn't seem to back athletics and the athletes.
I get OSU and MI are big fish, but there is no way that Bama, Georgia, Florida, etc. want any business in playing in Michigan and Ohio in November. You think Saban would be very happy when his team has to go play tOSU in Columbus when it’s 25 degrees and sleeting?
 

If this happens I am boycotting ESPN, Disney+ and the "SEC." The only way this happens is if OSU, Michigan and Penn State lose all hope in the leadership of the B1G. I am wondering if during Covid-19 the B1G leadership let politics play to big of a roll in decision making and didn't seem to back athletics and the athletes.
B1G leadership? You mean the Presidents of all the Universities, who had to vote on the decisions? The same Presidents that would follow them to any other conference?
 

B1G leadership? You mean the Presidents of all the Universities, who had to vote on the decisions? The same Presidents that would follow them to any other conference?

Yes, but if OSU and Michigan were the only schools pushing one way, while everyone else pushed another it would add to the tension. Those schools generated close to $200 million in revenue from sports in 2019. The schools system depends upon those funds more than most and hence why they may be outliers.

If you want to see the financial reasons behind the decisions that are being made and those being discussed here is revenue #'s from 2019. Notice how the BIG 12 has a huge gap in revenue between TX and OU and the other schools. Also notice the big gap between the top 4 and the other schools. The B10 dominates the top 6 schools in revenue, but the SEC has 10 of the top 20 schools in terms of sports revenue. It is not inconceivable for the SEC to try and poach TX, OU, OSU, PSU, MI and possibly WI and IA and then adding FSU, USC and Clemson. This give them almost every school that makes FB a #1 priority and the top revenue producing schools in the nation.

Lets be honest - MN gets a ton of benefit being yoked to schools with a bigger commitment to sports (we have done better but for years we wasted our athletics away). The B1G contract benefits each equally even thought other schools attract better ratings (MN did awesome in the ratings in 2019 which does show there is potential). It wouldn't be a reach if there were issues for the top dollar schools to be tempted to look at forming a super conference.

 
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Yes, but if OSU and Michigan were the only schools pushing one way, while everyone else pushed another it would add to the tension. Those schools generated close to $200 million in revenue from sports in 2019. The schools system depends upon those funds more than most and hence why they may be outliers.

If you want to see the financial reasons behind the decisions that are being made and those being discussed here is revenue #'s from 2019. Notice how the BIG 12 has a huge gap in revenue between TX and OU and the other schools. Also notice the big gap between the top 4 and the other schools. The B10 dominates the top 6 schools in revenue, but the SEC has 10 of the top 20 schools in terms of sports revenue. It is not inconceivable for the SEC to try and poach TX, OU, OSU, PSU, MI and possibly WI and IA and then adding FSU, USC and Clemson. This give them almost every school that makes FB a #1 priority and the top revenue producing schools in the nation.

Lets be honest - MN gets a ton of benefit being yoked to schools with a bigger commitment to sports (we have done better but for years we wasted our athletics away). The B1G contract benefits each equally even thought other schools attract better ratings (MN did awesome in the ratings in 2019 which does show there is potential). It wouldn't be a reach if there were issues for the top dollar schools to be tempted to look at forming a super conference.

Yeah but the problem with that way of thinking is that right now everyone in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois follows Ohio state against Clemson in a “playoff game” because there is somewhat a tie in culturally.

if the top 20-24 split completely, the fanbases of teams 25-130 might tune out (or partially tune out) and there is less money to be made long run.
 

I mean, it's an idea but I think this is short-sighted and has many downsides on top of that.

1. Geography. To make a 20 team conference you're going to be absorbing more geography. For the G5, that means a ton of travel which is a logistical nightmare/cost issue for teams that aren't rolling in the money like the B10, SEC, P12.
2. Viewership. You open up a "market" when you take someone in, sure, but USC fans are not tuning in to watch MD and vice versa unless they're just fans of college football and they are already tuningm into those games and generating you revenue anyway.
3. Unbalanced divisions/conferences. If you're going to try stack this geographically, you're going to have some divisions which are drastically better than others, similar to what we see in the NFL, and will eliminate your opportunity to have 2 heavy weights in a division get into the dance at the end (ie Bama and GA go 12-0 and 11-1, one of them isn't even a division winner, much less a conference winner and that isn't going to be looked on well). Sure it helps a team if they go 14-0 when they're G5, but any time a G5 loses a game it hurts them and an already conflated view of the P5 is going to exist and you're just limiting their opportunities
4. approximately 10-12 of these teams will never have a chance. Some of them are going to be previously have been good. Do they want to sit on the bottom of the conference every single year with no chance to win?
5. Bowl games probably have to go away. If you're going to try play 9 conference games, plus 2 to lead to a CC plus maintain some semblance of non conference to try say your conference is good, you're going to run out of time AND be asking guys to potentially play 12+2+3 games a year if they were to go all the way through. Again this is a scheduling nightmare.
6. More games don't necessarily mean more chances to get in. go look at the rankings as they are. If we're moving to 12, here's how many G5 get in each year
2020: 2
2019: 0 (best G5 teams were (3 of them) 12-1 that year)
2018: 1 (next best team was 11-2)
2017: 1 (next best team was 10-2)
2016: 0 (best team was 13-0, PJs WMU)
2015: 0 (best team was 12-1)
2014: 0 (best team was 11-2)
The CFP committee has shown they don't give a shit about the G5 and their best bet to get in is to play and beat P5 teams. You beat 14 G5 teams, sure you get in but if you lose one it isn't looking awesome and you're definitely out if you lose twice.

There's a reason that leagues have kept conference sizes around where they have. It is harder and harder to control all of those within the conference when the size grows. If the conferences go to 20, I very much see happening what another poster mentioned in that the lower teams will either see all interest in their team die or will fracture off and start a new conference. It makes no sense for the Vandys, Ole Miss's, Arkansas's to get demolished year in and out. Maybe we just should go to the soccer model as it's essentially what you're proposing when the conferences get this large as 10 teams will have nothing to play for halfway through the year

1. Teams are already making wacky trips as it is. If the USC/UCLA rumors are true for the Big Ten....then you are already looking at a completely cross-country conference. Which I am against. Keeping things somewhat contained could battle that. Pac-12 grabs a few Big 12 teams. SEC is going to have a pick of a number of teams. The Big Ten could absolutely grow to 20 within our own geographical area.
2. Not really about viewership. It's about money.....and the more spread out the conferences are in....the more TV markets that they hit.
3. Divisions are already unbalanced. SEC West quite a bit stronger than East. Big Ten East quite a bit stronger than the West.
4. Many teams already have little chance. But breaking divisions down into five teams may actually give some of the smaller programs a better chance at a bit of success.
5. Maybe. I don't see how the scheduling couldn't be figured out.
6. I think more games definitely would benefit G5. Especially if those games were semi-final and championship games against the strongest teams in their conference. A chance to play against a team that is good to bolster the resume.

I don't know where the claim "leagues have kept conference sizes around where they have" comes from. It's a pretty clear fact that leagues have been expanding over time. And once again we are talking expansion. SEC is on the verge of expanding to 16. Big Ten appears to not be too far behind. Added three teams in ten years and are looking to do it again.

I'm not trying to advocate for 20 team super conferences. I don't like the idea. But I am talking about how it could work....because it looks to be the way things are moving.
 

The Big Ten is still the richest conference with the best TV deal
Not true, anymore.

SEC with ESPN full backing is richer, even before adding Texas and OU. Now, they'll blow us out of the water. $70M/year/school vs $50M/year/school.

But how much do you need?? Schools like Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, generate plenty of revenue on their own, to hire whomever they want as a head coach and staff, to win a natty.

At some point, the raw amount of TV money is just for looks and bragging rights.

PAC schools make enough money to win a natty. I think they only get like $20M/school/year. But so what? Oregon and USC can easily win it, in a given year, with the right recruiting class.
 

LOOOOOOLLLLL @ the Oklahoma State to the Big Ten "rumor".

As soon as that guy got the boost in Twitter followers that he was looking for, he put out his "oh whoopsies!" retraction:

 

Oklahoma State, academically, is the same thing as North Dakota State.

Zero point zero chance they get a Big Ten invite.
 

I think the SEC is getting played (just like the PAC 12 did a decade ago). Texas still holds all the cards.

Texas and Oklahoma are going to negotiate a ridiculous deal to stay in the Big XII, but it will allow the conference to expand into major markets in the Midwest and South that it needs to to get a media deal, all while paying the other members almost nothing.
 

I think the SEC is getting played (just like the PAC 12 did a decade ago). Texas still holds all the cards.

Texas and Oklahoma are going to negotiate a ridiculous deal to stay in the Big XII, but it will allow the conference to expand into major markets in the Midwest and South that it needs to to get a media deal, all while paying the other members almost nothing.
This is a pretty reasonable take. Texas did the Longhorn network, trying to double-dip TV revenue, and obviously some schools balked and left. Of course, ironically, this lead to a weaker B12 conference, which means less long term money and stability for Texas. But hey, short term gains are great!

Think about the remaining B12 schools- if you’re OSU, TCU, etc., are you willing to give TX/OU a larger piece of the pie (thereby making things no longer equal among member schools), or let them leave and be at the mercy of other conferences letting you in? What P5 conference is taking a school like OSU?

To me, the best move for TX/OU is to try and make the B12 bigger and better, not leaving for the SEC. Who are the best programs out there not in P5 to poach? BYU, Cincy, UCF? I find it unlikely that TX/OU compete year in and year out in the SEC enough to keep their fan bases happy.

TAMU has been reasonably successful, so maybe I’m being proven wrong, but I just don’t see the long term play.
 

I could see something like this happen. Using pre-TX/OK move.
ACC has 14, B12 10, B10 14, P12 12, SEC 14= 64. breaks into 4 16 team conferences pretty easily. I'm sure there will be some musical chairs while this all happens, but having a 20 team conference gets difficult from a logistics in FB (are you playing 9 conference games now and eliminating cross overs?) vs 16 allows you to play an annual cross over game to continue to see your other schools on occasion. Same with BB (you now have 19 conference games already on the slate in theory and we play 20 in the B10, the SEC plays 18, P12 18).
Notre Dame?
 

If Texas could survive off going independent and putting all its home games on the Longhorn Network - run by ESPN - they would've done that.

That isn't, and isn't going to be, a thing.


Texas and OU will be joining the SEC. And they're going to get $70M/year, or some nice chunk of change, for doing that.


Neither may ever win the conference, in the next 30 years. See Arkansas, for example.
 

Texas and OU will be joining the SEC. And they're going to get $70M/year, or some nice chunk of change, for doing that.


Neither may ever win the conference, in the next 30 years. See Arkansas, for example.

The math is failing here. This 70-million assumes that (an already struggling) ESPN will renegotiate a deal that pays the SEC members well over 1-billion/ year. All while the SEC is plotting to allow much of the value of its brands to sneak out the back-door through NIL deals. Oh, and on top of it all, the SEC footprint would still only cover a small fraction of US households.

Unlike our Federal government, Disney can’t just print more money.
 

(an already struggling) ESPN
Wishful thinking.

the SEC is plotting to allow much of the value of its brands to sneak out the back-door through NIL deals.
They're plotting that?? Seems a weird plot, to me.

And that's not at all how NIL works. Not at all. Sounds like more wishful thinking.

the SEC footprint would still only cover a small fraction of US households.
They cover the top college football markets, by far. Like I said, outside of Ohio ... we just don't care anywhere near as much up here as they do down there.

Also: Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Ark, La, Tenn, Kentucky, Miss, Bama, Georgia, Florida

That's a "small" fraction of households?
 

Well, looks like Texas A&M to the Big Ten isn't going to happen. It seems their big fear/concern with Texas entering the SEC was that they were going to demand special treatment for a special portion of the TV deal, like they did in the Big XII (which by the way was exactly the same deal A&M got too, when they were still there).

Texas A&M athletic director Ross Bjork says the Aggies will be prepared should Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC, adding that any concern with the potential move was about preserving the collaborative nature of the league.

"Regardless of who joins the SEC, whether it's now [or] in the future, 'the 12th Man' is ready," Bjork told ESPN on Saturday. "Our teams are ready. Our coaches are ready. Our athletic department is ready to compete at the highest level. That's what the SEC is, that's what we are as a university, and we're ready for whatever comes next."



And from the A&M prez:

In a statement released by the university, Banks said she, Athletic Director Ross Bjork and Chancellor John Sharp are proud to be in the SEC and will continue to work with the conference for what’s best for Texas A&M.

“The last few days have been challenging in many ways, and I recognize that change in college athletics often is unsettling for those who love their institutions. Rest assured, the chancellor, our athletic director, and I, and everyone involved in this matter are focused solely on what is best for Texas A&M University,” Banks said in a statement released by Texas A&M. “Since 2011, we have been a proud member of the best intercollegiate athletic conference in history and we look forward to continued success in our SEC partnership for many years to come.”




Maybe the real thing is that the cost to buyout of the SEC's GoR would be something insane, like $200M or who knows, and they don't hate Texas enough to do that. Doubt we'll ever know for sure.



So I guess that the choices in the near term for the Big Ten are:
- stand pat, add no one
- add just Kansas
- add Kansas + Iowa State


I selfishly pick the last option. But I already understand, and mostly agree, with all the arguments against Iowa State, no need to reiterate them.
 

I'd go divisionless, as well. Just take the top two ranked schools for the conf champ game.

Iowa v Iowa State will be another nice trophy game. Maybe look to add trophy games for them with Neb and Wisc.
 

I'd go divisionless, as well. Just take the top two ranked schools for the conf champ game.

Iowa v Iowa State will be another nice trophy game. Maybe look to add trophy games for them with Neb and Wisc.
What do you mean another nice trophy game?
 




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