Conference Realignment Updates

[swede2]

Clemson, FSU and ACC settle. The agreement seemingly opens up a possibility for ACC schools to join the B1G with the B1G's next media rights deal.

ACC, FSU, Clemson reach revenue settlement

The ACC's board of directors has agreed to a new revenue distribution model and a reduced exit fee should any member choose to leave the conference before 2036, putting an end to ongoing litigation between the league, Florida State and Clemson.

www.espn.com

 

[swede2]

The Ivies are completely full of BS in claiming that academics aren't the reason they don't participate in the post-season. They do in basketball, hockey, and lots of other sports. They're just being self-righteous.

It's two HBCU conferences that don't participate - kind of. The SWAC and the MEAC. It's because the champions of each conference play in the Celebration Bowl, which I believe takes place after the FCS playoffs start. There are HBCU schools not in those conferences that take part in the playoffs, and there have been occasions where the committee has taken other schools from those conferences.

The Ivies are going to compete in playoffs now. It will be interesting to see how competitive they are. I assume they will be slightly better than the other non-scholarship league, the Pioneer.

From time to time, there have been schools from the SWAC and MEAC that have received at-large bids to the FCS playoffs where they have taken a real pounding. Presumably the conference champs would be fair slightly better. It's too bad the Celebration Bowl isn't played before the playoffs, allowing at least the winner, if not both schools, to play in the playoffs.

 

[FredCoxRocks]

 

[Some guy]

Clemson, FSU and ACC settle. The agreement seemingly opens up a possibility for ACC schools to join the B1G with the B1G's next media rights deal.

ACC, FSU, Clemson reach revenue settlement

The ACC's board of directors has agreed to a new revenue distribution model and a reduced exit fee should any member choose to leave the conference before 2036, putting an end to ongoing litigation between the league, Florida State and Clemson.

www.espn.com

Clemson, FSU, Georgia tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Notre dame

24 in big ten.

4 scheduling pools of 6.

Play your 5 in your pool plus an entire other pool
These are not divisions it’s just a scheduling model.
11 game conference schedule + one buy game or home and home

Auto bids so conference record is essential only thing that matters.

West pool:
Notre dame
Northwestern
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Midwest pool:
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
Minnesota
Nebraska

Ohio valley (need a new name…Middle East? Lake Erie? Great Lakes? Swing state?) pool:
Indiana
Michigan state
Michigan
Ohio state
Penn state
Rutgers

Atlantic Pool
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland


Everyone would play home and home every 6 seasons
Everyone would play their group of 6 every year
Mathematically you’d never have more than two unbeatens.


Once conferences have auto bids, scheduling will be all about the money not about money + making sure records are good enough to qualify
The pools are necessarily balanced but it doesn’t matter because your pool plays an entire other pool each year.

 

[TNGophfan]

Clemson, FSU, Georgia tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Notre dame

24 in big ten.

4 scheduling pools of 6.

Play your 5 in your pool plus an entire other pool
These are not divisions it’s just a scheduling model.
11 game conference schedule + one buy game or home and home

Auto bids so conference record is essential only thing that matters.

West pool:
Notre dame
Northwestern
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Midwest pool:
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
Minnesota
Nebraska

Ohio valley (need a new name…Middle East? Lake Erie? Great Lakes? Swing state?) pool:
Indiana
Michigan state
Michigan
Ohio state
Penn state
Rutgers

Atlantic Pool
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland


Everyone would play home and home every 6 seasons
Everyone would play their group of 6 every year
Mathematically you’d never have more than two unbeatens.


Once conferences have auto bids, scheduling will be all about the money not about money + making sure records are good enough to qualify
The pools are necessarily balanced but it doesn’t matter because your pool plays an entire other pool each year.

Not bad. I wish there was a logical way to make it 10 conference games and 2 non-con as would like to see everyone have the same # of conference home games. Also, realize its same for everyone, but 11 conference games in a real grind. Throw in 2 buy games and everyone has 7 home games. It would probably be the end of high end non con games, but, so be it.

 

[Some guy]

Not bad. I wish there was a logical way to make it 10 conference games and 2 non-con as would like to see everyone have the same # of conference home games. Also, realize its same for everyone, but 11 conference games in a real grind. Throw in 2 buy games and everyone has 7 home games. It would probably be the end of high end non con games, but, so be it.

Really easy to make it 10 games

Play 5 in your pool and 5/6 from another pool
The only downside is it opens up the possibility of 3+ unbeatens + it takes longer than 6 years to play everyone home and home.
Takes 9 years.



There are a ton of permutations of that possibility currently so it would be okay with them.

 

[GopherGrit]

Clemson, FSU and ACC settle. The agreement seemingly opens up a possibility for ACC schools to join the B1G with the B1G's next media rights deal.

ACC, FSU, Clemson reach revenue settlement

The ACC's board of directors has agreed to a new revenue distribution model and a reduced exit fee should any member choose to leave the conference before 2036, putting an end to ongoing litigation between the league, Florida State and Clemson.

www.espn.com

Wow, massive change from how the current GoR works. Would expect 2030 will be the next round of big realignment:

"
As a result of the settlement, the penalty to leave the conference has been significantly reduced. The grant of rights remains in place through 2036, but beginning next year, the exit fee will be $165 million. That fee then declines by $18 million per year, leveling at $75 million in 2030-31. Any team that pays the exit fee can leave with its media rights intact.

Currently, any school that wants to leave before June 2036 must pay three times the operating budget -- a figure that would be about $120 million -- plus control of that team's media rights through the conclusion of the grant of rights.

The timing of the exit penalty reduction is significant. Television deals for the Big Ten (2029-30), Big 12 (2030) and the next iteration of the College Football Playoff (2031) come up for renewal just as that fee goes down to $75 million.
"

 

[GopherGrit]

Not bad. I wish there was a logical way to make it 10 conference games and 2 non-con as would like to see everyone have the same # of conference home games. Also, realize its same for everyone, but 11 conference games in a real grind. Throw in 2 buy games and everyone has 7 home games. It would probably be the end of high end non con games, but, so be it.

The SEC is just going to be getting to 9 conf games a year.

I think the more likely thing with 10 will be scheduling agreements, say between Big Ten and SEC for the 10th game, alternating home and away to match the 4home/5away and 5home/4away cycles from 9 conf games.


An alternate scenario to Some Guy's would then be the following:

24 teams -- 6 divisions of 4 teams
play all 3 teams in your division, then use the remaining 6 conf games to play 1.5 divisions per year (or 3 whole divisions in two years).
In 10 years you've played everyone 3 times.


I don't know if that would be any good, but it would work on paper.

 

[Some guy]

The SEC is just going to be getting to 9 conf games a year.

I think the more likely thing with 10 will be scheduling agreements, say between Big Ten and SEC for the 10th game, alternating home and away to match the 4home/5away and 5home/4away cycles from 9 conf games.


An alternate scenario to Some Guy's would then be the following:

24 teams -- 6 divisions of 4 teams
play all 3 teams in your division, then use the remaining 6 conf games to play 1.5 divisions per year (or 3 whole divisions in two years).
In 10 years you've played everyone 3 times.


I don't know if that would be any good, but it would work on paper.

24, 28, 30, 32 are the logical numbers
19-23 are dumb
25-27 is dumb
29 is dumb
31 is dumb

Candidates
Notre dame
Texas A&M
Missouri
North Carolina
Virginia
Florida state
Georgia Tech
Colorado
Arizona state or Arizona
Utah
Clemson
Kansas
Someone else from Texas


Second tier
Tulane
Buffalo
Pitt
Boston college
Stanford
Cal
Duke
Syracuse

Candidates if academics doesn’t matter
Ok state
Louisville
NC State
Va tech

 

[GopherGrit]

Do you think there would be any benefit in adding Stanford over one of the ACC schools, if Notre Dame is being brought in and demands it?

 

[Some guy]

Do you think there would be any benefit in adding Stanford over one of the ACC schools, if Notre Dame is being brought in and demands it?

The problem is growing the pie per team by more than a new slice

Without expanding the conference schedule above 9, no way

Moving the conference schedule to 10, 11, or 12
Possibly

 

[mngg11]

Clemson, FSU, Georgia tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Notre dame

24 in big ten.

4 scheduling pools of 6.

Play your 5 in your pool plus an entire other pool
These are not divisions it’s just a scheduling model.
11 game conference schedule + one buy game or home and home

Auto bids so conference record is essential only thing that matters.

West pool:
Notre dame
Northwestern
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Midwest pool:
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
Minnesota
Nebraska

Ohio valley (need a new name…Middle East? Lake Erie? Great Lakes? Swing state?) pool:
Indiana
Michigan state
Michigan
Ohio state
Penn state
Rutgers

Atlantic Pool
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland


Everyone would play home and home every 6 seasons
Everyone would play their group of 6 every year
Mathematically you’d never have more than two unbeatens.


Once conferences have auto bids, scheduling will be all about the money not about money + making sure records are good enough to qualify
The pools are necessarily balanced but it doesn’t matter because your pool plays an entire other pool each year.

This looks great, keep those regional opponents as locks. I'm not into putting in the mental work myself, would there be the ability for each team to have a protected rivalry outside of their group? Like, could we have Michigan as a yearly rival? Would that be realistic and feasible in terms of the math/logic while keeping the rest of the schedule random enough so we see most of those teams over six years?

 

[Some guy]

This looks great, keep those regional opponents as locks. I'm not into putting in the mental work myself, would there be the ability for each team to have a protected rivalry outside of their group? Like, could we have Michigan as a yearly rival? Would that be realistic and feasible in terms of the math/logic while keeping the rest of the schedule random enough so we see most of those teams over six years?

Not in what I just drew up but I’m sure you could make groups of 6 in a way to preserve all rivalries

Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio state
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Iowa


That’s a gauntlet every year though

 

[Panthadad2]

Not in what I just drew up but I’m sure you could make groups of 6 in a way to preserve all rivalries

Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio state
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Iowa


That’s a gauntlet every year though

The rest of the BG10 would absolutely love this. Every team except MSU has a winning conference record the past five years.

 

[Some guy]

The rest of the BG10 would absolutely love this. Every team except MSU has a winning conference record the past five years.

I think that in an expanded conference scheduling groups will exist but I also don’t think they’ll die on the hill of balance

9-3 penn state can go to a playoff. So they can play teams X and Y every year

9-3 UsC can go to a playoff so they can play teams X and Y every year


If that makes sense

 

[metrolax]

And Hawaii officially has decided to become a full member of the Mountain West, which makes the MWC membership complete as an all sports conference. Rumor has it the MWC would still be interested in NIU and Toledo which would get them into five time zones. But they don't HAVE to expand farther. Hawaii makes them whole. So now what happens with the PAC.

(also, I must check Bisonville to see if the NDSU fans are going to jump from the cliff now.)

There are no cliffs in Fargo.....

 

[metrolax]

The Ivies are going to compete in playoffs now. It will be interesting to see how competitive they are. I assume they will be slightly better than the other non-scholarship league, the Pioneer.

From time to time, there have been schools from the SWAC and MEAC that have received at-large bids to the FCS playoffs where they have taken a real pounding. Presumably the conference champs would be fair slightly better. It's too bad the Celebration Bowl isn't played before the playoffs, allowing at least the winner, if not both schools, to play in the playoffs.

The Ivies tend to play out this way.....the top 2-3 teams are actually quite decent and can play with a lot of people, and their best team can go toe to toe with some lower tier FBS schools. The bottom 2-3 teams struggle with many FCS programs, while the middle is somewhere in the middle. I expect their league champ to fare well.

 

[Border Gopher]

Bigger conferences that cause more unbalanced scheduling and less common opponents isn't going to make things any better.

 

[GopherGrit]

24, 28, 30, 32 are the logical numbers
19-23 are dumb
25-27 is dumb
29 is dumb
31 is dumb

Candidates
Notre dame
Texas A&M
Missouri
North Carolina
Virginia
Florida state
Georgia Tech
Colorado
Arizona state or Arizona
Utah
Clemson
Kansas
Someone else from Texas


Second tier
Tulane
Buffalo
Pitt
Boston college
Stanford
Cal
Duke
Syracuse

Candidates if academics doesn’t matter
Ok state
Louisville
NC State
Va tech

You updated this post with candidate list.

Happy to agree to disagree, but just don't think Stanford belongs on 2nd tier. Don't think Bay Area is "covered" by UCLA/USC. Lot of Big Ten alumni there (tech companies). Huge market.

The cons are numerous I'm sure: it's a market that doesn't care about college sports (football), it's a pro market, it's a lot of people who don't care about sports in general, it's a bunch of people from elsewhere who didn't go to elite Cal/Stan and are already loyal to the colleges they graduated from.

Notre Dame would want them, as they have a yearly series which gets them into the Bay Area every other year.


But agree with you that the other new markets that ACC schools would open up are more valuable to increasing the pie.


Missouri & Kansas would be a great add, I think, but would Mizzou switch??

 

[GopherGrit]

There are no cliffs in Fargo.....

In the meantime, Northern Illinois joined the MW for football only (and the Horizon League for other sports).

No MW for Daktoas. Probably no FBS period unless they go CUSA?

I think they're too far away for the MAC to backfill with them. Illinois State would make more sense

 

[Some guy]

You updated this post with candidate list.

Happy to agree to disagree, but just don't think Stanford belongs on 2nd tier. Don't think Bay Area is "covered" by UCLA/USC. Lot of Big Ten alumni there (tech companies). Huge market.

The cons are numerous I'm sure: it's a market that doesn't care about college sports (football), it's a pro market, it's a lot of people who don't care about sports in general, it's a bunch of people from elsewhere who didn't go to elite Cal/Stan and are already loyal to the colleges they graduated from.

Notre Dame would want them, as they have a yearly series which gets them into the Bay Area every other year.


But agree with you that the other new markets that ACC schools would open up are more valuable to increasing the pie.


Missouri & Kansas would be a great add, I think, but would Mizzou switch??

I don’t think Stanford or cal add anything in terms of market reach or they’d already be added

The time to add them is for inventory of games, not market


I don’t think there is anyone left who is big enough addition to add as an individual or a pair short of notre dame (or stealing a major brand from SEC)

To me, this means the next expansion won’t be to 20. It’ll be to 24, 28, 30 or 32




I think Missouri and Texas A&M are most likely steals from SEC.
I wouldn’t mind Kansas joining but I think they’re more an add on to round out other additions than a target. I feel the same way about Stanford. You could probably put Stanford and cal at the bottom of tier one instead of tier 2.

 

[MNfootballfan]

Not bad. I wish there was a logical way to make it 10 conference games and 2 non-con as would like to see everyone have the same # of conference home games. Also, realize its same for everyone, but 11 conference games in a real grind. Throw in 2 buy games and everyone has 7 home games. It would probably be the end of high end non con games, but, so be it.

I don't disagree with you on the same number of conference games but I think that problem might work itself out. I think it is going to get to the point where the Big Ten and SEC are just going to get x-amount of playoff teams and the Big Ten and SEC will determine how they will select those teams and it won't matter if they play 1 or 12 conference games.

 

[MNfootballfan]

This looks great, keep those regional opponents as locks. I'm not into putting in the mental work myself, would there be the ability for each team to have a protected rivalry outside of their group? Like, could we have Michigan as a yearly rival? Would that be realistic and feasible in terms of the math/logic while keeping the rest of the schedule random enough so we see most of those teams over six years?

I would be curious and I am not smart enough to figure it out on my own. The original post with the division/schedule pools said that every team would basically have a home and home with each team outside of their pool every six years.

I don't feel like we play Michigan that many times right now? Maybe we do, it just seems like we don't play them that often.

 

[MNfootballfan]

Clemson, FSU, Georgia tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Notre dame

24 in big ten.

4 scheduling pools of 6.

Play your 5 in your pool plus an entire other pool
These are not divisions it’s just a scheduling model.
11 game conference schedule + one buy game or home and home

Auto bids so conference record is essential only thing that matters.

West pool:
Notre dame
Northwestern
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Midwest pool:
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
Minnesota
Nebraska

Ohio valley (need a new name…Middle East? Lake Erie? Great Lakes? Swing state?) pool:
Indiana
Michigan state
Michigan
Ohio state
Penn state
Rutgers

Atlantic Pool
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland


Everyone would play home and home every 6 seasons
Everyone would play their group of 6 every year
Mathematically you’d never have more than two unbeatens.


Once conferences have auto bids, scheduling will be all about the money not about money + making sure records are good enough to qualify
The pools are necessarily balanced but it doesn’t matter because your pool plays an entire other pool each year.

This would be pretty dang close to my dream scenario. We play the teams I really care about playing every year - Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska.

Every six years I will get to see home games against the rest of those teams? As a season ticket holder, sign me up!

People can say whatever they want about conference realignment, it is really fun seeing some big time helmet schools come into the Bank. I enjoyed watching USC last fall and would really look forward to Notre Dame, Florida State, and Clemson - just as much as I am excited for USC, Oregon, and Washington.

It is fun watching good football teams and players - even if it potentially makes the Gophers opponents tougher.

 

[alchemy2u]

This would be pretty dang close to my dream scenario. We play the teams I really care about playing every year - Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska.

Every six years I will get to see home games against the rest of those teams? As a season ticket holder, sign me up!

People can say whatever they want about conference realignment, it is really fun seeing some big time helmet schools come into the Bank. I enjoyed watching USC last fall and would really look forward to Notre Dame, Florida State, and Clemson - just as much as I am excited for USC, Oregon, and Washington.

It is fun watching good football teams and players - even if it potentially makes the Gophers opponents tougher.

It would be fun to watch the southern schools play games up north in the winter.

 

[Uffda]

There are no cliffs in Fargo.....

However there are a few Cliff Clavin types

 

[PMWinSTP]

Do you think there would be any benefit in adding Stanford over one of the ACC schools, if Notre Dame is being brought in and demands it?

Yes.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Clemson, FSU, Georgia tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Notre dame

24 in big ten.

4 scheduling pools of 6.

Play your 5 in your pool plus an entire other pool
These are not divisions it’s just a scheduling model.
11 game conference schedule + one buy game or home and home

Auto bids so conference record is essential only thing that matters.

West pool:
Notre dame
Northwestern
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Midwest pool:
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
Minnesota
Nebraska

Ohio valley (need a new name…Middle East? Lake Erie? Great Lakes? Swing state?) pool:
Indiana
Michigan state
Michigan
Ohio state
Penn state
Rutgers

Atlantic Pool
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland


Everyone would play home and home every 6 seasons
Everyone would play their group of 6 every year
Mathematically you’d never have more than two unbeatens.


Once conferences have auto bids, scheduling will be all about the money not about money + making sure records are good enough to qualify
The pools are necessarily balanced but it doesn’t matter because your pool plays an entire other pool each year.

This is the way and the plan.

It's better for this to happen in 5 years. The Big Ten will have solved and optimized how to operate as a national conference by then.

The only caveats are the Super Conference rumors and OSU and UM demanding more than an equal share of money in a new deal.

 

[TruthSeeker]

You guys, after the next realignment, the playoff will be Big Ten vs. SEC. It'll be the NFL model. 6 or 8 teams from each conference make the playoff. The conference champions play for the natty.

The writing is clearly on the wall. The Big 12 and ACC schools, along with Notre Dame, are figuring out how to get accepted by either the Big Ten or SEC.

The leftovers will be completely left out. They won't have the money to compete or pay players like the Big Ten and SEC.

I actually think the SEC and Big Ten will stop at 20, not 24 teams. The ACC and Big 12 don't have enough schools that grow the pie for the rest of the conference.

The Big Ten will take Norte Dame and one of Miami, FSU, or UNC. The hardest pick of those 3 would be UNC due to state politics with their universities. I suppose you could look at SMU, Houston, and GT, but some of those schools will head to the SEC. To get to 24 you'd add Norte Dame, plus 5 of the other 6. Plausible because of their markets and their need to join a Power 2 conference but unlikely to get 6 of those 7.

They won't add just to add. They'll want helmet schools, big markets, and schools where the conference doesn't have a flag planted like Texas and Florida in order to grow the pie and per school payout.

You play your full division, another division, plus the same place teams that finished in your school's position the previous year. That's an 11 game conference schedule. The division winners plus 2 wildcards go to the Big Ten playoff. The winner plays the SEC champ for the natty.

That hypothetical conference with 11 conference game seasons and a full slate of Big Ten playoff games would probably be worth at least $3 billion per year by the next agreement. That's $150 million per school at 20 teams.

 

[swede2]

Yes.

Perhaps some kind of intangible benefit but certainly not financial - that's why they are flying their softball team to the opposite coast for athletic contests.