Conference Realignment Updates

[short ornery norwegian]

update from Pete Thamel on Twitter:

Sources: UNLV officials are still analyzing the school’s conference future, as they are expected to make a choice between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 in the upcoming days. A change of conference requires Nevada System of Higher Education Board Approval.

 

[disco]

For hockey that's already possible, Notre Dame is Men's Hockey affiliate Big 10 member.

It's also possible football could be it's own thing for lots of universities.

Hawaii is a football only member of the MWC. They're in the Big West for other sports.
I think Johns Hopkins is an affiliate member of the B1G in Lacrosse, and I think NDSU was an affiliate of the Big 12 in wrestling. It's more common than some might think.

 

[swede2]

Hawaii is a football only member of the MWC. They're in the Big West for other sports.
I think Johns Hopkins is an affiliate member of the B1G in Lacrosse, and I think NDSU was an affiliate of the Big 12 in wrestling. It's more common than some might think.

NDSU, SDSU and a number of similar schools are Big 12 wrestling members.

UConn is mulling joining the PAC whatever FB only.

 

[swede2]

update from Pete Thamel on Twitter:

Sources: UNLV officials are still analyzing the school’s conference future, as they are expected to make a choice between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 in the upcoming days. A change of conference requires Nevada System of Higher Education Board Approval.

MWC no doubt will offer quite a large slice of the buyout pie to keep UNLV on board. I'm guessing it's a bidding war right now.

 

[GopherGrit]

Wouldn't it have made sense for the entire MW to just move to the Pac?

Apparently, they don't want San Jose, Nevada, Wyoming, or New Mexico?

I can't see how that is worth nine figures of money? They have to be hoping to force dissolving the conference and thus not owing anything?

Funny since I think that's what the departing PAC teams were hoping for, but Oregon St and Washington St refused to go along.

Wyoming and New Mexico would do similarly?

 

[short ornery norwegian]

MWC no doubt will offer quite a large slice of the buyout pie to keep UNLV on board. I'm guessing it's a bidding war right now.

give that man a prize for calling it on the nose.

Yahoo Sports is reporting that UNLV and Air Force will stay with the Mountain West - and in return, the MWC will pay each school a "signing bonus" estimated at $25- to $30-million.

but....assuming this is accurate.....this leaves the MWC with 7 football schools (6 full-time members) and leaves the PAC-? with 7 schools. Each conference needs to find an 8th school to be recognized by the NCAA as an official conference.

where do those extra teams come from? can they flip any other G5 schools? the AAC and MAC look secure. the Sun Belt is mostly Eastern and some Southern schools. C-USA just adjusted its membership.

or - could we see an FCS team make the jump to FBS for a chance at some TV money?

 

[GophersInIowa]

Memphis? Tulane?

Just throwing names out there.

 

[Zeppelin Gopher]

Memphis? Tulane?

Just throwing names out there.

They both already declined and stated they'd be staying in the AAC...

 

[PMWinSTP]

Does anyone think, given the Gophers' inability to compete in the BiG since the 60s, that moving to another conference might be appropriate? Yes, I know a lot of money is at stake, but if the administration is truly not a champion for excellence, it could accept less money from a less prestigious conference and cut some athletic department costs accordingly. The admin's purported indifference and the recruiting disadvantages of Minneapolis, maybe it's time to think of a bold change. Maybe find a little bit littler pond to swim in.

No.

 

[swede2]

give that man a prize for calling it on the nose.

Yahoo Sports is reporting that UNLV and Air Force will stay with the Mountain West - and in return, the MWC will pay each school a "signing bonus" estimated at $25- to $30-million.

but....assuming this is accurate.....this leaves the MWC with 7 football schools (6 full-time members) and leaves the PAC-? with 7 schools. Each conference needs to find an 8th school to be recognized by the NCAA as an official conference.

where do those extra teams come from? can they flip any other G5 schools? the AAC and MAC look secure. the Sun Belt is mostly Eastern and some Southern schools. C-USA just adjusted its membership.

or - could we see an FCS team make the jump to FBS for a chance at some TV money?

The cupboard is pretty bare for FBS teams that make any kind of sense. UTEP and New Mexico State are probably the most likely FBS candidates to join the MWC. I don't think either move the needle for PAC but what better options are there?

Sacramento State has been making a big push for an invite to PAC or MWC. Unsurprisingly, their recently hired consultants told them they could make the jump to FBS from FCS. Does a Northern California team in the Sacramento market move the needle for the PAC? Or is a Montana, a much more established brand in a much smaller market more appealing?

Tarleton State, a recent entrant to FCS football with quite a lot of success might be a MW candidate.
I think a big chunk of the NDSU crowd would love an invite to the MWC. There's a growing sentiment among the SDSU crowd, although probably still a minority, that SDSU should take the leap if offered. The thought is that a split between the P4 and rest of FBS will happen sooner rather than later and SDSU doesn't want to big stuck in the third tier (FCS) if and when that happens. The xDSUs are second tier athletic programs competitively but are hamstrung by small media market and appeal.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

The PAC is in a catch-22. In order to attract schools, they need to be able to offer a better media deal. but in order to negotiate a better media deal, the media partners need to know which teams will be in the league.

no one is going to hand the PAC a better media deal based on "trust us, we'll add some good teams."

I think there is more pressure on the PAC to add established schools. If teams are going to make the jump from FCS, I think the MWC is a more likely destination.

 

[swede2]

Right on cue

The cupboard is pretty bare for FBS teams that make any kind of sense. UTEP and New Mexico State are probably the most likely FBS candidates to join the MWC. I don't think either move the needle for PAC but what better options are there?

Sacramento State has been making a big push for an invite to PAC or MWC. Unsurprisingly, their recently hired consultants told them they could make the jump to FBS from FCS. Does a Northern California team in the Sacramento market move the needle for the PAC? Or is a Montana, a much more established brand in a much smaller market more appealing?

Tarleton State, a recent entrant to FCS football with quite a lot of success might be a MW candidate.
I think a big chunk of the NDSU crowd would love an invite to the MWC. There's a growing sentiment among the SDSU crowd, although probably still a minority, that SDSU should take the leap if offered. The thought is that a split between the P4 and rest of FBS will happen sooner rather than later and SDSU doesn't want to big stuck in the third tier (FCS) if and when that happens. The xDSUs are second tier athletic programs competitively but are hamstrung by small media market and appeal.

Sacramento St announces this a.m. plans for a new 25,000 seat stadium.

 

[disco]

They both already declined and stated they'd be staying in the AAC...

Makes sense too. I think South Florida also declined. Better to stick with the devil you know rather than the one you don't. Plus, all three of these schools would rather be in the ACC if they are going to move.

 

[disco]

The cupboard is pretty bare for FBS teams that make any kind of sense. UTEP and New Mexico State are probably the most likely FBS candidates to join the MWC. I don't think either move the needle for PAC but what better options are there?

Sacramento State has been making a big push for an invite to PAC or MWC. Unsurprisingly, their recently hired consultants told them they could make the jump to FBS from FCS. Does a Northern California team in the Sacramento market move the needle for the PAC? Or is a Montana, a much more established brand in a much smaller market more appealing?

Tarleton State, a recent entrant to FCS football with quite a lot of success might be a MW candidate.
I think a big chunk of the NDSU crowd would love an invite to the MWC. There's a growing sentiment among the SDSU crowd, although probably still a minority, that SDSU should take the leap if offered. The thought is that a split between the P4 and rest of FBS will happen sooner rather than later and SDSU doesn't want to big stuck in the third tier (FCS) if and when that happens. The xDSUs are second tier athletic programs competitively but are hamstrung by small media market and appeal.

So as of right now, neither conference has enough teams. I'm going to assume that the MWC invites UTEP and NM State. If the new PAC can't get anyone else from the MWC, where do they go from here?

 

[swede2]

So as of right now, neither conference has enough teams. I'm going to assume that the MWC invites UTEP and NM State. If the new PAC can't get anyone else from the MWC, where do they go from here?

See Sac St, above.

Edit: There was some earlier scuttlebutt about the P4 applying some downward pressure on the Groups to resist diluting the pool with additional FCS schools. But it's hard to see a scenario where that isn't part of this latest conference shake up.

I wonder what UNLV and AF had to agree to in exchange for the big MWC payoff? I assume there's a grant if rights but how long will that be for? The MWC media contract expires in '26.

 

[Zeppelin Gopher]

Sounds like Texas State is being courted very heavily right now

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Sounds like Texas State is being courted very heavily right now

yup. reports that both the PAC and MWC - and possibly even AAC, are talking to current Sun Belt member Texas State. also seeing reports that UTEP (currently C-USA) is in the mix.

 

[disco]

See Sac St, above.

Edit: There was some earlier scuttlebutt about the P4 applying some downward pressure on the Groups to resist diluting the pool with additional FCS schools. But it's hard to see a scenario where that isn't part of this latest conference shake up.

I wonder what UNLV and AF had to agree to in exchange for the big MWC payoff? I assume there's a grant if rights but how long will that be for? The MWC media contract expires in '26.

Sac State feels like a big dropoff for the PAC.

I'm not surprised to hear there could be pressure to not add current FCS schools, and to be honest, some of the ones that have or are moving up don't make a lot of sense. Sam Houston, Jacksonville, Tarleton, Kennesaw, SFA etc.

At least Delaware is a flagship state school as would be the the xSD, xDSU, and Montana schools. Some of these are like the equivalent of Winona State moving up.

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

Madness...

 

[metrolax]

One thought and a couple dark horse candidates, per my sources.....(fwiw)

The easiest quick fix would be Texas State and UTSA as a tandem. It would lock the San Antonio area as well as South Texas, and give the league a rivalry. The downside could be that geography might force them down a different road later, and that it appears the PAC is looking to stay regional, which is actually quite refreshing in this day and age.

The dark horse candidates are Hawaii and Sac State.

San Jose State is not a serious consideration despite its history and location, mostly due to its somewhat subdued stadium at the moment. Its a shame, since San Jose would be a good get.

Honolulu's mayor is a former player or coach at UH, and is heading a task force to try to get UH into the PAC. They are in process of upgrading to a new stadium, and this opportunity might provide the impetus for it.

Similar situation at Sac State, where city leaders and alums are doing something very similar to Hawaii, and they are also looking into expanding their stadium.

Provided that both those schools can make those changes, or at least have them in contract, just might allow the PAC to accept them based on future projections rather than where they are currently. Its worth keeping an eye on.

 

[metrolax]

The MWC, actually, has many more opportunities to replenish its ranks since the jump from a lesser conference or the FCS to the MWC is less than it would be to the PAC. My guess is that the MWC could seek teams such as UTEP and New Mexico State before having FCS teams go through the $5 million price tag for upgrading. Its almost too easy to project Idaho and Idaho State, Montana and Montana State, and the Dakota schools to the MWC but that amount of money may be hard to come up with, especially since its hard to expand the seating capacity in domed stadiums.

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

Memphis? Tulane?

Just throwing names out there.

Yep, as others have said, Tulane got an invite but turned them down. The public reasons were increased travel and such, the core reason is that financially they're far better off in the ACC than the PAC. New Mexico State and UTEP, however, would love to join the PAC.

We'll see if Air Force stays in the Mountain West - there's a lot of talk of getting them to join Navy and Army in the ACC, which the ACC would like as it gives them total market for military vets. Financial concerns don't drive the Air Force, so it's a different ball game to deal with them vs. other universities.

 

[CentralGopher]

The MWC, actually, has many more opportunities to replenish its ranks since the jump from a lesser conference or the FCS to the MWC is less than it would be to the PAC. My guess is that the MWC could seek teams such as UTEP and New Mexico State before having FCS teams go through the $5 million price tag for upgrading. Its almost too easy to project Idaho and Idaho State, Montana and Montana State, and the Dakota schools to the MWC but that amount of money may be hard to come up with, especially since its hard to expand the seating capacity in domed stadiums.

I don’t see how it would be any different to go to the MWC or PAC. They’re basically on the same level now.

 

[swede2]

The MWC, actually, has many more opportunities to replenish its ranks since the jump from a lesser conference or the FCS to the MWC is less than it would be to the PAC. My guess is that the MWC could seek teams such as UTEP and New Mexico State before having FCS teams go through the $5 million price tag for upgrading. Its almost too easy to project Idaho and Idaho State, Montana and Montana State, and the Dakota schools to the MWC but that amount of money may be hard to come up with, especially since its hard to expand the seating capacity in domed stadiums.

SDSU and the Montana schools play FB as God intended it. $5 million isn't an issue for xDSU. But the MWC is making it clear it prefers existing FBS programs.

 

[swede2]

Yep, as others have said, Tulane got an invite but turned them down. The public reasons were increased travel and such, the core reason is that financially they're far better off in the ACC than the PAC. New Mexico State and UTEP, however, would love to join the PAC.

We'll see if Air Force stays in the Mountain West - there's a lot of talk of getting them to join Navy and Army in the ACC, which the ACC would like as it gives them total market for military vets. Financial concerns don't drive the Air Force, so it's a different ball game to deal with them vs. other universities.

AF is getting a big chunk of money from from the MW and, along with all full members of the MWC, have entered into an agreement to stick it out together earlier today.

 

[swede2]

Sac State feels like a big dropoff for the PAC.

I'm not surprised to hear there could be pressure to not add current FCS schools, and to be honest, some of the ones that have or are moving up don't make a lot of sense. Sam Houston, Jacksonville, Tarleton, Kennesaw, SFA etc.

At least Delaware is a flagship state school as would be the the xSD, xDSU, and Montana schools. Some of these are like the equivalent of Winona State moving up.

Most of the schools who have recently moved up did so because of guarantee game contracts. FBS bottom feeders get a much as 3 times the money for guarantee games over FCS. Add the 12th game every year and that's 3 or 4 guarantee games each year instead of 1 or 2, at 3 times the money.

 

[swede2]

Now the assinine talk is NIU and Toledo as FB only members in the MWC - central and eastern time zone teams to sweeten TV contracts.

 

[disco]

Now the assinine talk is NIU and Toledo as FB only members in the MWC - central and eastern time zone teams to sweeten TV contracts.

I can't possibly imagine this happening. No MAC team brings anything to the table. Plus the MAC is geographically tight, which helps keep costs down. This reeks of desperation. Plus, football only members don't satisfy the NCAA requirement for 8 full members. That last point is why Hawaii matters. Becoming a full member of either the MWC or the PAC helps either conference greatly in this situation.

Right now, we have the PAC - 6 full members.
WSU, OSU, SDSU, USU, Fresno, Boise, CSU

Right now, we have the MWC - 6 full members.
Wyoming, New Mexico, SJSU, AFA, Nevada, UNLV

Let's say Hawaii joins the PAC as a full member. Hawaii is a flagship state university, which helps their status a bit. Then the PAC has 7.

Then the MWC needs 2. The PAC needs 1.
NMSU, UTEP, Texas State and UTSA would be the most likely schools to move in some fashion.

CUSA, which I think most fans realize is the worst of the FBS conferences, would still have 8 full members and will gain Delaware and Missouri State anyway. And the Sun Belt would also still have enough teams. And there would be no teams needed to move up from FCS.