College Football Playoff Rankings

[Some guy]

I think your argument is making mine. If teams 17-40 are all the same but only 9 get the rankings, which are intregal to a conference making the playoff (i.e. ranked wins), then you should wonder why those teams.

Not at all. All the teams 20-25 could be different next week even if teams 20-25 win

 

[noamfromm]

Not at all. All the teams 20-25 could be different next week even if teams 20-25 win

They could be -- the committee does claim that it's a blank slate. Regardless, if they will I'd wager they won't be.

 

[Some guy]

They could be -- the committee does claim that it's a blank slate. Regardless, if they will I'd wager they won't be.

If wisconsin struggles with Rutgers they might be.



honestly the problem isn’t with the committee. It is what they have been tasked with. They are told to rank the best things. Which is subjective.
They should’ve been told to rank the best resumes.

They honestly could ignore everything and rank whoever number 1. Give the rationale they think that’s the best team. And the committee would be doing what they were asked to do

 

[noamfromm]

If wisconsin struggles with Rutgers they might be.



honestly the problem isn’t with the committee. It is what they have been tasked with. They are told to rank the best things. Which is subjective.
They should’ve been told to rank the best resumes.

They honestly could ignore everything and rank whoever number 1. Give the rationale they think that’s the best team. And the committee would be doing what they were asked to do

I don't disagree about the mission of the committee. I believe they use whatever statistics and metrics they can find to justify their subjective preconceived notions about who should make the playoffs, that is the teams (read brands) that will make the CFP the most money.

 

[Some guy]

I don't disagree about the mission of the committee. I believe they use whatever statistics and metrics they can find to justify their subjective preconceived notions about who should make the playoffs, that is the teams (read brands) that will make the CFP the most money.

Yeah

Whenever the playoff expands to 8 or 12
It would benefit every conference not named the SEC to have objective criteria for getting in. The big ten might benefit second most from the subjectivity

 

[noamfromm]

Yeah

Whenever the playoff expands to 8 or 12
It would benefit every conference not named the SEC to have objective criteria for getting in. The big ten might benefit second most from the subjectivity

Very fair assessment -- though I don't think Greg Sankey wants to expand if there is an objective criteria that does not favor the SEC (or P5).

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Game control

 

[Some guy]

Game control

Recency

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

List of Top 10 College Football Teams teams who have beaten a current Top 10 team:

• Cincinnati vs. ND
• Michigan State vs. Michigan
• Oregon vs. Ohio State

Teams that did that on the road:

• Cincinnati
• Oregon

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

If "Bama loses to either Auburn or Georgia or both of 'em, do you think they'll fall all the way to being the 4th ranked team, or will the committee keep them at 2nd or 3rd?

 

[MaxyJR1]

Anyone that watched Penn State with a healthy QB knows that they are probably better than the three teams in the West division. However, they have lost 3 games because of that injury and almost beat tOSU with that injured player.

The problem I have with the committee is that they seem to treat every team or situation on it's own.

Alabama is #2 because we believe they would beat every team behind them.
Oregon is #4 because they beat tOSU head to head.
MSU is #3 because they are 8-0.
Cincinnati is #6 because they don't play anyone.

 

[stocker08]

We'd need a safety net to get over Oklahoma or Oregon (if Georgia and Alabama) make it

I doubt MSU would drop below Oklahoma. And that would mean OSU topped them and still only has one loss. If Michigan beats OSU....they'll jump and only have one loss going into the championship. They beat the west team and their in regardless. A one loss Big Ten team that wins the championship won't need a safety net. A two loss Big Ten team isn't making it.

 

[noamfromm]

I doubt MSU would drop below Oklahoma. And that would mean OSU topped them and still only has one loss. If Michigan beats OSU....they'll jump and only have one loss going into the championship. They beat the west team and their in regardless. A one loss Big Ten team that wins the championship won't need a safety net. A two loss Big Ten team isn't making it.

Undefeated Oklahoma with wins over ranked Baylor, Oklahoma State and a championship game would jump a one loss B1G (I think). One loss Oregon already looks to be in, but that may not be the case because they have no one good left to beat. You may be right, but I don't think it's cut and dry.

 

[RememberMurray]

How much weight does the committee place on winning the B1G conference championship, regardless of record? I've never been clear on that.

 

[stocker08]

Undefeated Oklahoma with wins over ranked Baylor, Oklahoma State and a championship game would jump a one loss B1G (I think). One loss Oregon already looks to be in, but that may not be the case because they have no one good left to beat. You may be right, but I don't think it's cut and dry.

It isn't cut and dry at all. Depending on how things wrap up....style points will probably come into play. Even Cincy isn't dead in my opinion. But they'll have to start burying teams.

OSU and Michigan are already ahead of Oklahoma in the CFP Rankings. OSU will make it if they run the table (which will knock MSU out of #3). Their only loss to an Oregon team currently ranked #4. Michigan is currently #7 ahead of Oklahoma. Beating OSU would be HUGE....and since OSU plays MSU before that game....OSU will probably be in the top four by that time. I don't see anyway that Oklahoma jumps them if they win out.

You may have a point with MSU.

 

[noamfromm]

How much weight does the committee place on winning the B1G conference championship, regardless of record? I've never been clear on that.

I don't know what they do in practice, but this is from their formation.

"Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head‐to‐head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie‐breaker; apply specific guidelines)."

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

collegefootballplayoff.com

 

[RememberMurray]

I don't know what they do in practice, but this is from their formation.

"Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head‐to‐head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie‐breaker; apply specific guidelines)."

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

collegefootballplayoff.com

Thank you for the reply. That's good information.

Another question: do bowl selectors for the non-CFP bowls take the final CFP rankings of non-CFP teams into consideration when choosing teams for their bowls? In other words, how important is the final CFP poll to teams outside the Top Four, as to their bowl chances/destinations?

 

[noamfromm]

Thank you for the reply. That's good information.

Another question: do bowl selectors for the non-CFP bowls take the final CFP rankings for non-CFP teams into consideration? In other words, how important is the final CFP poll to teams outside the Top Four, and to their bowl chances/destinations?

I don't know about the other bowls. But for the Rose Bowl it is the poll they use to justify their selection if a conference's champion is in the playoff.

"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

'If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.'

Though they end with this statement -- "It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team."

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL SELECTION PROCEDURES - Tournament of Roses

The selection process for the Rose Bowl Game has, in […]

tournamentofroses.com

 

[RememberMurray]

I don't know about the other bowls. But for the Rose Bowl it is the poll they use to justify their selection if a conference's champion is in the playoff.

"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

'If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.'

Though they end with this statement -- "It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team."

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL SELECTION PROCEDURES - Tournament of Roses

The selection process for the Rose Bowl Game has, in […]

tournamentofroses.com

Thanks again, noam. Much appreciated.

Sounds as though final CFP ranking might have some impact on bowl destinations even for teams outside the Chosen Four.

 

[stocker08]

Anyone that watched Penn State with a healthy QB knows that they are probably better than the three teams in the West division. However, they have lost 3 games because of that injury and almost beat tOSU with that injured player.

The problem I have with the committee is that they seem to treat every team or situation on it's own.

Alabama is #2 because we believe they would beat every team behind them.
Oregon is #4 because they beat tOSU head to head.
MSU is #3 because they are 8-0.
Cincinnati is #6 because they don't play anyone.

Beat Wisconsin by six. Wisconsin only put up ten points. Yes....the Iowa game was a fluke loss.

But how do you figure they are better than the Gophers based upon their games against the Hawks and Badgers?

 

[noamfromm]

Thanks again, noam. Much appreciated.

Sounds as though final CFP ranking might have some impact on bowl destinations even for teams outside the Chosen Four.

Regarding the Sugar Bowl (B12 & SEC)

"In the case of the SEC, the replacement team would be the top-ranked non-playoff team. In the case of the Big 12, the replacement team would be the next non-playoff team with the best record in the regular-season standings."

2022 Allstate Sugar Bowl to Feature Big 12 and SEC - Official Site of the Allstate Sugar Bowl

The 2022 Allstate Sugar Bowl on January 1, 2022 will feature teams from the Big 12 and the SEC...

allstatesugarbowl.org

Per Orange Bowl Committee VP of Communications Larry Wahl in 2019

"In the event that the ACC champion is selected for the playoff, and no other ACC team is ranked, it is the choice of the Orange Bowl Committee, not the CFP, to choose which ACC team plays in the game. Unlike the Cotton Bowl, which is reliant on the CFP to create it’s matchup, the Orange Bowl is a contract bowl between, as you correctly stated, the ACC on one side and the highest ranked available team from among the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame on the other. Notre Dame cannot be selected for the ACC spot.

The only way Notre Dame can get to our game is to be an opponent of the ACC team, and only if it were to be higher ranked than the highest available Big Ten or SEC team, after the playoff, Rose and Sugar have made their selections."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/e54vjs/clarifying_the_orange_bowl_selection_process/

tl;dr

If a conference champion is in the playoff -- The Rose Bowl can basically choose whatever CFP ranked team they want, but they say they want the highest ranked one. The Sugar Bowl chooses the highest CFP ranked SEC team, but the B12 runner up. The Orange Bowl picks the highest CFP ranked ACC team, if none are ranked they choose whichever ACC team they want and matches them up with the highest available CFP ranked team from B1G/SEC/ND

The Cotton, Fiesta & Peach bowls are not contract bowls and can select whomever they would like.

 

[Some guy]

How much weight does the committee place on winning the B1G conference championship, regardless of record? I've never been clear on that.

As much emphasis on it as they need to get Ohio state into the playoff and leave Penn state big ten champ at home

Precedent already set they might take a 1 loss non champ over a 2 loss champ from 2016
2017 tells us they’d pick a one loss non champ over a 2 loss P5 champ

there is no data to suggest they would take a 2 loss non champ over a 2 loss champ
There is no data to suggest they would take a 1 loss non champ over a 1 loss champ
*EXCEPTION BEING NOTRE DAME

 

[MaxyJR1]

Beat Wisconsin by six. Wisconsin only put up ten points. Yes....the Iowa game was a fluke loss.

But how do you figure they are better than the Gophers based upon their games against the Hawks and Badgers?

I don't know for sure, but how we do against Illinois might give some perspective.

 

[stocker08]

I don't know for sure, but how we do against Illinois might give some perspective.

Every game gives perspective. Iowa got lucky and Illinois caught them with a hobbled QB. The Wisconsin game will tell us the most.....but even that was week 1.

 

[MirandaB]

My conspiracy mind is saying the Iowa AD ranked the Gophers high so in the event they beat us, it's a quality win, or a loss against a ranked opponent which also looks betters.

 

[MGGopher]

My conspiracy mind is saying the Iowa AD ranked the Gophers high so in the event they beat us, it's a quality win, or a loss against a ranked opponent which also looks betters.

Oh, it's very clear they're propping up the B1G West so that champ ends up in the 8-12 range in final rankings thereby giving another quality win to the East champ and making the Rose Bowl happy if they're "stuck" with the West champ.

But I don't care. Minnesota is ranked #20. And that makes me happy!

 

[disco]

If wisconsin struggles with Rutgers they might be.



honestly the problem isn’t with the committee. It is what they have been tasked with. They are told to rank the best things. Which is subjective.
They should’ve been told to rank the best resumes.

They honestly could ignore everything and rank whoever number 1. Give the rationale they think that’s the best team. And the committee would be doing what they were asked to do

Sure. They could rank UTSA number one if they wanted. And nobody could stop them.

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Every game gives perspective. Iowa got lucky and Illinois caught them with a hobbled QB. The Wisconsin game will tell us the most.....but even that was week 1.

Realistically, if you take away maroon colored glasses, that was a terrible choke job by Mertz and UW. Clifford did hit on two or three deep balls but didn't UW have 5 turnovers and 3 inside the 5 or 10 yard line? Mertz missed a wide open WR to lose it too. He's almost solely responsible for all of their losses come to think of it.

 

[stocker08]

Realistically, if you take away maroon colored glasses, that was a terrible choke job by Mertz and UW. Clifford did hit on two or three deep balls but didn't UW have 5 turnovers and 3 inside the 5 or 10 yard line? Mertz missed a wide open WR to lose it too. He's almost solely responsible for all of their losses come to think of it.

I hardly remember their week one matchup with PSU. The fact is that Mertz isn't very good. The Gophers offense is better.

 

[matt]

My conspiracy mind is saying the Iowa AD ranked the Gophers high so in the event they beat us, it's a quality win, or a loss against a ranked opponent which also looks betters.

My conspiracy theory is they are inflating Minnesota, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State’s rankings to justify higher rankings for Ohio State and Alabama. Those three teams are each a few spots higher than they should be, and they are the best teams Ohio Stage and Alabama have beaten.