College Football Playoff Rankings

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Released tomorrow. A writer for NCAA.com put out his predictions. Gophers at #20. Iowa at #16 and Wisconsin at #23.

www.ncaa.com

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What the CFP top 25 might look like in Week 10

Here's what we think the first College Football Playoff rankings will look like when the first CFP rankings of the season are announced at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 2
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

Collegefootballnews has the Gophers at #21

collegefootballnews.com

College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction: Week 1, November 2

The College Football Playoff rankings come out on Tuesday night November 2nd. What will they be and what will they look like? We give our best guess and prediction.
collegefootballnews.com collegefootballnews.com

Fivethirtyeight has the Gophers at #16. The highest of any unranked team.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 



So let me get this right the CFP rankings are going to rank a 6-2 Gopher team with no substantial victories over anyone and a BG loss at #16 or around there. When in 2019 we were 10-2 with a win against #8 Penn State they didn't rank us that high.

The NCAA and the wonks who run the show over there will not do the Gophers any favors and I doubt they will now. Do I think we should be ranked - YES. Do I think we could win the rest of our games - YES. Will we get respect from the NCAA - NO. NCAA and there rankings are just as much about money (They exchanged RTB for RIC (Rake In the Cash)) as they are about football.
 

For those who didn't see my post on another thread, these are the rankings that matter for the Rose Bowl this year if the Big Ten champion goes to the playoff. These rankings are a possible tie-breaker.

btn.com

Big Ten Football Division Tiebreakers - Big Ten Network

(Updated Nov. 2, 2015) The Big Ten football championship will be decided by a game played between the two division champions. A team or teams that are not eligible to participate in a postseason football bowl game as a result of NCAA and/or Big Ten sanctions shall not be eligible to participate...
btn.com btn.com
 


gophernut1 said:
So let me get this right the CFP rankings are going to rank a 6-2 Gopher team with no substantial victories over anyone and a BG loss at #16 or around there. When in 2019 we were 10-2 with a win against #8 Penn State they didn't rank us that high.

The NCAA and the wonks who run the show over there will not do the Gophers any favors and I doubt they will now. Do I think we should be ranked - YES. Do I think we could win the rest of our games - YES. Will we get respect from the NCAA - NO. NCAA and there rankings are just as much about money (They exchanged RTB for RIC (Rake In the Cash)) as they are about football.
Click to expand...

There are very few teams who have substantial victories.

Purdue thought they had one, not looking like it.
Iowa thought they had one, not looking like it.
Etc.

I understand your argument, but you need to keep in mind there aren't many teams beating Alabama, Ohio St, and Georgia every week.
 

gophernut1 said:
So let me get this right the CFP rankings are going to rank a 6-2 Gopher team with no substantial victories over anyone and a BG loss at #16 or around there. When in 2019 we were 10-2 with a win against #8 Penn State they didn't rank us that high.

The NCAA and the wonks who run the show over there will not do the Gophers any favors and I doubt they will now. Do I think we should be ranked - YES. Do I think we could win the rest of our games - YES. Will we get respect from the NCAA - NO. NCAA and there rankings are just as much about money (They exchanged RTB for RIC (Rake In the Cash)) as they are about football.
Click to expand...
This isn't an NCAA thing is it? I thought this was a consortium of football people and not run by the NCAA.
 

GoForGold said:
For those who didn't see my post on another thread, these are the rankings that matter for the Rose Bowl this year if the Big Ten champion goes to the playoff. These rankings are a possible tie-breaker.

btn.com

Big Ten Football Division Tiebreakers - Big Ten Network

(Updated Nov. 2, 2015) The Big Ten football championship will be decided by a game played between the two division champions. A team or teams that are not eligible to participate in a postseason football bowl game as a result of NCAA and/or Big Ten sanctions shall not be eligible to participate...
btn.com btn.com
Click to expand...
It's not really a tiebreaker if I understand it correctly.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

tournamentofroses.com

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL SELECTION PROCEDURES - Tournament of Roses

The selection process for the Rose Bowl Game has, in […]
tournamentofroses.com tournamentofroses.com
 

I'd say the only realistic path to the Rose Bowl is to win the Big Ten Championship game. The Gophers are highly unlikely to win in the tiebreaker. Too many losses and yes the damned BG game could cost us. Also was posted above "It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team." Again too many losses overall.
 
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gophernut1 said:
So let me get this right the CFP rankings are going to rank a 6-2 Gopher team with no substantial victories over anyone and a BG loss at #16 or around there. When in 2019 we were 10-2 with a win against #8 Penn State they didn't rank us that high.

The NCAA and the wonks who run the show over there will not do the Gophers any favors and I doubt they will now. Do I think we should be ranked - YES. Do I think we could win the rest of our games - YES. Will we get respect from the NCAA - NO. NCAA and there rankings are just as much about money (They exchanged RTB for RIC (Rake In the Cash)) as they are about football.
Click to expand...

I highly doubt the Gophers will be ranked #16. I think sneaking in at #25 is realistic.
 

noamfromm said:
It's not really a tiebreaker if I understand it correctly.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

tournamentofroses.com

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL SELECTION PROCEDURES - Tournament of Roses

The selection process for the Rose Bowl Game has, in […]
tournamentofroses.com tournamentofroses.com
Click to expand...
OK, you might be right. It's hard to interpret all that jargon in the tiebreaker criteria. I need the Tiebreaker for Dummies version.
 
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Not out yet? It’s 4:46 PM!

Nevermind…I’ll be watching it on ESPN at 7 PM 😬
 

GoForGold said:
OK, you might be right. It's hard to interpret all that jargon in the tiebreaker criteria. I need the Tiebreaker for Dummies version.
Click to expand...
Its reads like -- if there is a team we want to take that is within "several" ranking spots from another team we can take them
 



538 still gives the Gophers a 2% chance of making CFP, with a 9% chance of winning Big Ten.

Since there are plenty of outcomes that involve winning Big Ten with a third (or fourth) loss, they are actually kind of positive on the chances of a 11-2 Big Ten Champs Gopher team making it.
 

Face The Facts said:
There are very few teams who have substantial victories.

Purdue thought they had one, not looking like it.
Iowa thought they had one, not looking like it.
Etc.

I understand your argument, but you need to keep in mind there aren't many teams beating Alabama, Ohio St, and Georgia every week.
Click to expand...

This is sort of the "I don't want to be part of any club that would have me as a member" situation

Any fancy team Minnesota upsets suddenly has the stain of a loss to icky Minnesota. So the "good wins" often degrade. Look how good Iowa seemed by wrecking top 20 Indiana week 1. Not so much today.
 

noamfromm said:
Its reads like -- if there is a team we want to take that is within "several" ranking spots from another team we can take them
Click to expand...
Simply win the Big Ten and go to Rose Bowl
Lose title game and maybe get chosen if 10-3, but likely the 2nd place team from the East.
 

GoForGold said:
I'd say the only realistic path to the Rose Bowl is to win the Big Ten Championship game. The Gophers are highly unlikely to win in the tiebreaker. Too many losses and yes the damned BG game could cost us. Also was posted above "It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team." Again too many losses overall.
Click to expand...
We would need MSU to lose probably 2 games (@Purdue, Maryland, @OSU, PSU), and the Gophers to win out (other than the championship game). Or OSU to win out, and MSU to win out except for a loss to OSU. Depending on the rest of the field, could the B1G get two playoff teams? If not, we would need to cheer for Sparty to lose.

In this scenario, MI and MSU both have 2 losses, and PSU has 3 or more.

Possibly the more interesting scenario is what happens on the Pac12 side. If Oregon wins out, do they sneak into the playoff? If they do, the second place Pac12 team going to the Rose Bowl would be WAY worse.
 

gophernut1 said:
So let me get this right the CFP rankings are going to rank a 6-2 Gopher team with no substantial victories over anyone and a BG loss at #16 or around there. When in 2019 we were 10-2 with a win against #8 Penn State they didn't rank us that high.

The NCAA and the wonks who run the show over there will not do the Gophers any favors and I doubt they will now. Do I think we should be ranked - YES. Do I think we could win the rest of our games - YES. Will we get respect from the NCAA - NO. NCAA and there rankings are just as much about money (They exchanged RTB for RIC (Rake In the Cash)) as they are about football.
Click to expand...

Well.....the two actual rankings have them at #20 and #21. FiveThirtyEight has teams listed by potential chance to make the playoffs based on whatever metrics they use. So that's not really and actual CFP ranking.
 


GoForGold said:
I'd say the only realistic path to the Rose Bowl is to win the Big Ten Championship game. The Gophers are highly unlikely to win in the tiebreaker. Too many losses and yes the damned BG game could cost us. Also was posted above "It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team." Again too many losses overall.
Click to expand...

Hard to say what will happen. Coming down the stretch....the CFP I think is more likely to make larger moves. If the Gophers rattle off eight straight wins to find themselves 10-2 and in the BTCG.....I'd probably be surprised if they weren't ranked higher than Michigan and Michigan State at that point. That's assuming both lose to OSU and Michigan State picks up another loss somewhere.

At that point....I could see the BTCG being the final determination on where the Gophers stand in relation to Michigan and MSU strictly by how well they compete in comparison to those other two.
 

stocker08 said:
Hard to say what will happen. Coming down the stretch....the CFP I think is more likely to make larger moves. If the Gophers rattle off eight straight wins to find themselves 10-2 and in the BTCG.....I'd probably be surprised if they weren't ranked higher than Michigan and Michigan State at that point. That's assuming both lose to OSU and Michigan State picks up another loss somewhere.

At that point....I could see the BTCG being the final determination on where the Gophers stand in relation to Michigan and MSU strictly by how well they compete in comparison to those other two.
Click to expand...
The criteria the Rose Bowl committee posted is very wishy-washy. They can choose any of a number of criteria in no particular order, so basically they can choose whoever they want in a tiebreaker. It's all open to speculation at this point.
 



When I didn't see the Gophers in that first grouping.....I figured that was it. Pleasantly surprised. And while you can't cry over spilt milk.....that Bowling Green game might be what kept us out of the top 10 in these first rankings.
 

stocker08 said:
When I didn't see the Gophers in that first grouping.....I figured that was it. Pleasantly surprised. And while you can't cry over spilt milk.....that Bowling Green game might be what kept us out of the top 10 in these first rankings.
Click to expand...
I'd tend to agree, definitely keeping us out of the top 15 for sure, but with Baylor and OK state at 11 and 12 I could see a 7-1 Gophers being placed there as well
 


bc2211 said:
Bama at 2 is absurd. They’ve got a very unimpressive resume and a bad loss.
Click to expand...
As long as the loss is not to that team from Ohio they are ok. That team is of course the worst team in the history of college football. :p
 
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bc2211 said:
Bama at 2 is absurd. They’ve got a very unimpressive resume and a bad loss.
Click to expand...

The nice thing about the way the top four is set up right now....things should take care of themselves. If Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship....they are out. OSU can play themselves in by knocking MSU out (they will).
 

stocker08 said:
The nice thing about the way the top four is set up right now....things should take care of themselves. If Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship....they are out. OSU can play themselves in by knocking MSU out (they will).
Click to expand...
Perhaps, but if Bama beats Georgia it’s a mess of how much the committee values the SEC.

The problem I have with it right now is that Bama has the worst loss of the top 6, and a mediocre best win.
 

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