Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

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This guy is from Barstool, so that's about all I needed to know on that.
 

I have seen quite a few tweets/rumors/speculation involving Florida State to the B1G.

Obviously, that all hinges on getting out of the Grant of Rights. But - FWIW - I saw a suggestion that FSU - if it can get out of the GOR - could theoretically pay an 'exit fee' in installments - and still wind up ahead financially by getting B1G TV money.

at this point - there are still multiple options:
- B1G does nothing
- B1G adds Oregon and Washington
- B1G adds Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford
- B1G adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson (yes - Clemson).

who the bleep knows? But TV seems to be driving a lot of that. lots of talk about ESPN and Fox battling to lock up desirable teams/TV markets.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I have seen quite a few tweets/rumors/speculation involving Florida State to the B1G.

Obviously, that all hinges on getting out of the Grant of Rights. But - FWIW - I saw a suggestion that FSU - if it can get out of the GOR - could theoretically pay an 'exit fee' in installments - and still wind up ahead financially by getting B1G TV money.

at this point - there are still multiple options:
- B1G does nothing
- B1G adds Oregon and Washington
- B1G adds Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford
- B1G adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson (yes - Clemson).

who the bleep knows? But TV seems to be driving a lot of that. lots of talk about ESPN and Fox battling to lock up desirable teams/TV markets.
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I have a really hard time believing Stanford doesn't end up in the B1G.
 





goldengophers said:
Based on what? :rolleyes:
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They're never going to play the big money NIL game because of their admission standards - they're closer to U of Chicago or the Ivies than a P5 program in this regard. It will likely become increasingly difficult for them to compete at this level.

While they have a lot of wealthy alumni, it doesn't seem that football matters much to the alumni or the students. They're in a big media market (along with Cal), but does that even matter all that much anymore?

They wouldn't be a terrible fit in the WCC.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I have seen quite a few tweets/rumors/speculation involving Florida State to the B1G.

Obviously, that all hinges on getting out of the Grant of Rights. But - FWIW - I saw a suggestion that FSU - if it can get out of the GOR - could theoretically pay an 'exit fee' in installments - and still wind up ahead financially by getting B1G TV money.

at this point - there are still multiple options:
- B1G does nothing
- B1G adds Oregon and Washington
- B1G adds Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford
- B1G adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson (yes - Clemson).

who the bleep knows? But TV seems to be driving a lot of that. lots of talk about ESPN and Fox battling to lock up desirable teams/TV markets.
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I have no idea, but I see option 3 as least likely.
Cal adds absolutely nothing for the big ten.
 

Some guy said:
I have no idea, but I see option 3 as least likely.
Cal adds absolutely nothing for the big In St
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I'm sure there is a lot better data available than when Rutgers and Maryland came on board that tells the Big 10 that neither Cal or Stanford adds much value. It's San Francisco and the bay area. Based solely on population and television sets, at least one of the two would seem a no brainer, and it would have made all the sense in the world to add USC and either Cal or Sanford, rather than UCLA, adding LA and the big northern CA markets. But the analytics must say that neither of these programs add value commensurate to the market.
 



goldengophers said:
I have a really hard time believing Stanford doesn't end up in the B1G.
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I agree. While Stanford doesn’t pump a lot of money into football and basketball, they are still the most successful sports school in the country with 152 national team championships, and have won 26 of the 29 Director’s cups ever awarded.

Academically they are ranked 4th in prestige, 4th in endowment size (about 42 billion), 11th ranked research university and of course are an AAU institution.

Plus, they are in the 6th largest media market.
 

on today's Realignment Calendar:

Pac-12 Commissioners meeting this morning. George Kliavkoff is supposedly going to finally present a proposal for a media rights deal. several outlets are reporting/speculating that the deal is going to be heavily weighted to streaming (Apple) and the financial terms will come in somewhere near $20-million/yr per school. (possibility of unequal payout where some teams get more $$ than others....) it has also been suggested that the deal will have incentives that could be reached based on viewership and new subscribers for the streaming service.

and..................the Arizona Board of Regents is meeting this afternoon. what that might/could be about is open to speculation. but a lot of people are connecting the dots to suggest that Arizona may be ready to jump to the Big-12 IF the Pac-12 media deal comes in too low for Zona's liking.
 

disco said:
They're never going to play the big money NIL game because of their admission standards - they're closer to U of Chicago or the Ivies than a P5 program in this regard. It will likely become increasingly difficult for them to compete at this level.

While they have a lot of wealthy alumni, it doesn't seem that football matters much to the alumni or the students. They're in a big media market (along with Cal), but does that even matter all that much anymore?

They wouldn't be a terrible fit in the WCC.
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I don't see this happening. Its 2024 recruiting class is top 20.
 

Pete Thamel reported yesterday that Az, ASU, and Utah have joined at the hip as a package deal.
 


mngolf said:
Pete Thamel reported yesterday that Az, ASU, and Utah have joined at the hip as a package deal.
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I forget now where I read it, and there is of course a myriad of “reports” out there, most of them bogus. Anyway, what I remember reading was that those three had an “agreement” to leave together but that the landing spot off all 3 might not be the same place. Utah potentially looking at the Big10 or the SEC. Personally, I’d love Utah in the Big10 if we expand again, and the one plus to the Utes is that it would give USC and UCLA a western foe for travel without it being another LA team or Oregon, which USC reportedly doesn’t want in the Big10.
 

U2Gopher said:
I forget now where I read it, and there is of course a myriad of “reports” out there, most of them bogus. Anyway, what I remember reading was that those three had an “agreement” to leave together but that the landing spot off all 3 might not be the same place. Utah potentially looking at the Big10 or the SEC. Personally, I’d love Utah in the Big10 if we expand again, and the one plus to the Utes is that it would give USC and UCLA a western foe for travel without it being another LA team or Oregon, which USC reportedly doesn’t want in the Big10.
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I don't see Utah being anywhere but B12. SEC doesn't want out of their little region and I don't think Utah brings what B1G wants. But I think we'll see real soon either way.
 

OK - I have seen at least two different sites reporting that the Pac-12 met today, and a new TV plan was apparently presented, but it was not approved. According to Pete Thamel, the deal was "primarily" streaming on Apple. The deal reportedly included tiers of incentives, allowing schools to earn more $$ if certain subscription numbers or goals were met. NO decision on the deal. Campus leaders reportedly asked for more time to evaluate the proposal. Thamel's report says the deal is tricky to evaluate because the incentives could make a big difference in how much $$ a school actually receives.

with a deal on the table - but no approval - what does Arizona do? Board of Regents meet later today.

on Utah - saw one report that Utah may not want to be in the same conference with BYU for.....reasons.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
OK - I have seen at least two different sites reporting that the Pac-12 met today, and a new TV plan was apparently presented, but it was not approved. According to Pete Thamel, the deal was "primarily" streaming on Apple. The deal reportedly included tiers of incentives, allowing schools to earn more $$ if certain subscription numbers or goals were met. NO decision on the deal. Campus leaders reportedly asked for more time to evaluate the proposal. Thamel's report says the deal is tricky to evaluate because the incentives could make a big difference in how much $$ a school actually receives.

with a deal on the table - but no approval - what does Arizona do? Board of Regents meet later today.

on Utah - saw one report that Utah may not want to be in the same conference with BYU for.....reasons.
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Report I saw said $20M per but incentives could get it up closer to $30M.

No school can "depend" on incentives, nor should they want to accept primarily streaming.
 

U2Gopher said:
I forget now where I read it, and there is of course a myriad of “reports” out there, most of them bogus. Anyway, what I remember reading was that those three had an “agreement” to leave together but that the landing spot off all 3 might not be the same place. Utah potentially looking at the Big10 or the SEC. Personally, I’d love Utah in the Big10 if we expand again, and the one plus to the Utes is that it would give USC and UCLA a western foe for travel without it being another LA team or Oregon, which USC reportedly doesn’t want in the Big10.
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Hard to see the B1G interested in Utah. The entire state has a smaller population than the Twin Cities. Very regional and to me is sort of a land locked island, if that makes any sense. Big 12 makes the most sense, given the BYU rivalry.
 

mngolf said:
Report I saw said $20M per but incentives could get it up closer to $30M.

No school can "depend" on incentives, nor should they want to accept primarily streaming.
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Yeh, I would think the guaranteed $$ needs to be as good or better than the Big 12.
 

Sadly probably yes.

But remember when all the cool kids are kicking people out the group that aren’t as cool as them and you are in the inner circle, the day could come when you aren’t….
 

PMWinSTP said:
Hard to see the B1G interested in Utah. The entire state has a smaller population than the Twin Cities. Very regional and to me is sort of a land locked island, if that makes any sense. Big 12 makes the most sense, given the BYU rivalry.
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The Big 10 doesn't seem to value growth properties. It's something like the 37th largest media market but is one of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing market in the country. The market is comparable to Oregon's market, but unlike Oregon, it is growing. But this doesn't seem to be solely about shear number of eyeballs and television sets anymore, but who is actually tuning in. From growth perspective there's a business case to be made but to get to the point that the growth actually matures into value is probably so far in the future that the media as we know it will no longer exists.
 

swede2 said:
The Big 10 doesn't seem to value growth properties. It's something like the 37th largest media market but is one of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing market in the country. The market is comparable to Oregon's market, but unlike Oregon, it is growing. But this doesn't seem to be solely about shear number of eyeballs and television sets anymore, but who is actually tuning in. From growth perspective there's a business case to be made but to get to the point that the growth actually matures into value is probably so far in the future that the media as we know it will no longer exists.
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I think the B1G knows extremely well how to value its targets. I'm not one who thinks Oregon is in the next top four. I think it is Irish, Washington, Stanford, and Cal. Much like SoCal, B1G will look to lock up the NorCal market by grabbing both Stanford and Cal.

WIth the musical chairs that is going on, the Irish are going to have to participate and neither the ACC or SEC are a fit.
 


PMWinSTP said:
I think the B1G knows extremely well how to value its targets. I'm not one who thinks Oregon is in the next top four. I think it is Irish, Washington, Stanford, and Cal. Much like SoCal, B1G will look to lock up the NorCal market by grabbing both Stanford and Cal.

WIth the musical chairs that is going on, the Irish are going to have to participate and neither the ACC or SEC are a fit.
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I agree with all except Notre Dame. Their football team is so wrapped up in its national independent branding, I don't think they'll let that go. I doubt they want to play 2nd/3rd/4th fiddle to OSU, MI and USC in conference.

Your take on Cal and the NorCal market is interesting. I hadn't really thought of it that way.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I agree with all except Notre Dame. Their football team is so wrapped up in its national independent branding, I don't think they'll let that go. I doubt they want to play 2nd/3rd/4th fiddle to OSU, MI and USC in conference.

Your take on Cal and the NorCal market is interesting. I hadn't really thought of it that way.
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Just posted on the other thread. Wetzel reporting that B1G is talking to OU, UW, Stan, Cal right now about joining.
 

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