HOOP DREAMS
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Hollins > Welch
GW = Wrong again just like with the Trevor "Uh Oh"
GW did some research on freshman Big Ten pg's & why we shouldn't expect Andre to play at a high level. Lets see how they stacked up now that the season is coming to an end.
________________
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/113184?referrer_id=388419
For months, the expectations have been steadily high for Minnesota freshman combo guard Dre Hollins. Contrary to the majority of the media and fan base, I’ve always believed that incoming junior Julian Welch would be the best point guard option for the Gophers in 2011-12 and continue to believe so. Over time, both the majority of the media and fans have gradually drifted toward accepting the idea of Welch as a possibility to begin the year at point guard, even though he is still is a relatively unknown quantity.
However, the expectations of Andre continue to be high and with Welch still affected somewhat by a tender ankle, the youngster from Tennessee may very well start in Friday’s opener against a good Bucknell team.
Regardless of who starts, Hollins has the opportunity to earn a lot of minutes this year. What are reasonable expectations to place on this young man who had 8 assists and no turnovers in the team's first exhibition game? As some like to point out, he is a "top 100 recruit" that scored 46 against Findlay Prep and was the 2011 Class AAA Mr. Basketball in Tennessee. Then again, he wasn't really a top 100 recruit under most definitions (not in the RSCI top 100, or Scout top 100, but #110 Rivals and #79 ESPN) and being Mr. Basketball doesn't assure success in Division I basketball (see TN '09 Mr. Basketball Drew Kelly, who in one game scored 67 points on 26/33 shooting his senior year of high school, but did nothing at Miami (OH) and has done little at Morehead State).
Just how good Hollins' career at Minnesota can be is debatable, but Gopher fans should be glad that he is at the ‘U’. He’s a good ball player. Dre hasn't played a ton at the point guard position, but he's smart and a hard worker, both of which should help him. In addition, it's likely he'll see some of his floor time playing off the ball. If the Gophers were really going to be the running and pressing team that is currently being advertised, his adjustment to the speed of the college game would be even more difficult, but in reality the team's pace of play will only be a little faster than a year ago and will be a far cry from a "run and gun" style. The biggest problem facing Andre Hollins as a point guard is that he is in his first year of college. As Al McGuire said, “the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores”.
A freshman guard that adds significant value to his team is rare. (As a side note, first year JUCO players are rarely studs either.) A good year for Dre would be one in which he plays good perimeter defense, is average when shooting the ball and has an assist rate that is higher than his turnover rate. An inconsistent guard who averages 6 points per game, is a mediocre shooter and turns the ball over at a higher-than-average rate may not live up to the expectations of some followers of the Gophers, but that type of a performance is in line with what I’m looking for.
Some players are incredible from day one, but they are the exception. Even most highly sought after recruits usually show a fraction of their eventual selves in their first year. Listed below are certain statistics for a number of recent Big Ten point guards. These figures illustrate the progression over the players' careers, but also just how mediocre (or relatively poor) some very good players were in their first year.
Notes: The recruiting rankings don't mean a lot to me, but are included for the reader. Figures for ORtg (offensive rating), Poss% (possessions used), eFG% (effective field goal percentage), Ast (assist rate) and TO (turnover rate) were obtained from kenpom.com
Talor Battle, Penn State (N/A RSCI; #92 ESPN, #131 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 38.1 20.2 111.9 28.5 52.3 19.8 12.0
JR 37.0 18.5 106.5 29.0 49.8 28.0 13.7
SO 37.4 16.7 109.9 27.0 49.5 29.6 15.4
FR 30.2 10.2 93.6 23.2 42.3 22.7 20.1
Demetri McCamey, Illinois (#71 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 14.6 110.7 25.3 55.3 35.9 20.8
JR 34.5 15.1 105.7 26.8 52.0 40.8 21.9
SO 30.6 11.5 99.1 24.6 49.3 30.5 20.4
FR 27.3 8.2 91.1 22.3 45.5 26.0 26.2
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State (#34 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 17.0 105.8 26.9 48.7 23.7 17.1
JR 31.1 14.8 110.1 25.4 50.1 25.8 18.4
SO 31.9 14.7 110.4 25.4 44.2 29.6 16.2
FR 25.1 10.3 103.4 25.3 46.3 30.0 19.8
Al Nolen, Minnesota (N/A RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss%
eFG% Ast TO
SR 29.1 8.4 102.4 19.4 39.7 23.4 22.2
JR 25.4 6.7 108.7
18.7 42.9 31.9 19.6
SO 26.5 6.5 100.4 19.1 38.9 31.6 21.1
FR 22.6 4.3 97.0 16.1 41.2 28.3 30.3
Darius Morris, Michigan (N/A RSCI; 77 Rivals; 100 ESPN)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SO 34.8 15.0 108.9 29.3 50.9 44.4 18.4
FR 24.3 4.4 88.7 15.5 43.4 21.6 27.0
Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (N/A RSCI; 124 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
JR 36.5 18.1 126.9 27.4 51.7 30.4 8.5
SO 29.5 10.0 110.1 22.3 45.7 25.8 11.8
FR 13.2 1.6 80.9 13.7 29.5 17.2 19.1
Comparing the number Andre Hollins had a great freshman season, factor in mpg and he is right there at the top.
GW = Wrong again just like with the Trevor "Uh Oh"
GW did some research on freshman Big Ten pg's & why we shouldn't expect Andre to play at a high level. Lets see how they stacked up now that the season is coming to an end.
________________
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/113184?referrer_id=388419
For months, the expectations have been steadily high for Minnesota freshman combo guard Dre Hollins. Contrary to the majority of the media and fan base, I’ve always believed that incoming junior Julian Welch would be the best point guard option for the Gophers in 2011-12 and continue to believe so. Over time, both the majority of the media and fans have gradually drifted toward accepting the idea of Welch as a possibility to begin the year at point guard, even though he is still is a relatively unknown quantity.
However, the expectations of Andre continue to be high and with Welch still affected somewhat by a tender ankle, the youngster from Tennessee may very well start in Friday’s opener against a good Bucknell team.
Regardless of who starts, Hollins has the opportunity to earn a lot of minutes this year. What are reasonable expectations to place on this young man who had 8 assists and no turnovers in the team's first exhibition game? As some like to point out, he is a "top 100 recruit" that scored 46 against Findlay Prep and was the 2011 Class AAA Mr. Basketball in Tennessee. Then again, he wasn't really a top 100 recruit under most definitions (not in the RSCI top 100, or Scout top 100, but #110 Rivals and #79 ESPN) and being Mr. Basketball doesn't assure success in Division I basketball (see TN '09 Mr. Basketball Drew Kelly, who in one game scored 67 points on 26/33 shooting his senior year of high school, but did nothing at Miami (OH) and has done little at Morehead State).
Just how good Hollins' career at Minnesota can be is debatable, but Gopher fans should be glad that he is at the ‘U’. He’s a good ball player. Dre hasn't played a ton at the point guard position, but he's smart and a hard worker, both of which should help him. In addition, it's likely he'll see some of his floor time playing off the ball. If the Gophers were really going to be the running and pressing team that is currently being advertised, his adjustment to the speed of the college game would be even more difficult, but in reality the team's pace of play will only be a little faster than a year ago and will be a far cry from a "run and gun" style. The biggest problem facing Andre Hollins as a point guard is that he is in his first year of college. As Al McGuire said, “the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores”.
A freshman guard that adds significant value to his team is rare. (As a side note, first year JUCO players are rarely studs either.) A good year for Dre would be one in which he plays good perimeter defense, is average when shooting the ball and has an assist rate that is higher than his turnover rate. An inconsistent guard who averages 6 points per game, is a mediocre shooter and turns the ball over at a higher-than-average rate may not live up to the expectations of some followers of the Gophers, but that type of a performance is in line with what I’m looking for.
Some players are incredible from day one, but they are the exception. Even most highly sought after recruits usually show a fraction of their eventual selves in their first year. Listed below are certain statistics for a number of recent Big Ten point guards. These figures illustrate the progression over the players' careers, but also just how mediocre (or relatively poor) some very good players were in their first year.
Notes: The recruiting rankings don't mean a lot to me, but are included for the reader. Figures for ORtg (offensive rating), Poss% (possessions used), eFG% (effective field goal percentage), Ast (assist rate) and TO (turnover rate) were obtained from kenpom.com
Talor Battle, Penn State (N/A RSCI; #92 ESPN, #131 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 38.1 20.2 111.9 28.5 52.3 19.8 12.0
JR 37.0 18.5 106.5 29.0 49.8 28.0 13.7
SO 37.4 16.7 109.9 27.0 49.5 29.6 15.4
FR 30.2 10.2 93.6 23.2 42.3 22.7 20.1
Demetri McCamey, Illinois (#71 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 14.6 110.7 25.3 55.3 35.9 20.8
JR 34.5 15.1 105.7 26.8 52.0 40.8 21.9
SO 30.6 11.5 99.1 24.6 49.3 30.5 20.4
FR 27.3 8.2 91.1 22.3 45.5 26.0 26.2
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State (#34 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 17.0 105.8 26.9 48.7 23.7 17.1
JR 31.1 14.8 110.1 25.4 50.1 25.8 18.4
SO 31.9 14.7 110.4 25.4 44.2 29.6 16.2
FR 25.1 10.3 103.4 25.3 46.3 30.0 19.8
Al Nolen, Minnesota (N/A RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss%
eFG% Ast TO
SR 29.1 8.4 102.4 19.4 39.7 23.4 22.2
JR 25.4 6.7 108.7
18.7 42.9 31.9 19.6
SO 26.5 6.5 100.4 19.1 38.9 31.6 21.1
FR 22.6 4.3 97.0 16.1 41.2 28.3 30.3
Darius Morris, Michigan (N/A RSCI; 77 Rivals; 100 ESPN)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SO 34.8 15.0 108.9 29.3 50.9 44.4 18.4
FR 24.3 4.4 88.7 15.5 43.4 21.6 27.0
Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (N/A RSCI; 124 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
JR 36.5 18.1 126.9 27.4 51.7 30.4 8.5
SO 29.5 10.0 110.1 22.3 45.7 25.8 11.8
FR 13.2 1.6 80.9 13.7 29.5 17.2 19.1
Comparing the number Andre Hollins had a great freshman season, factor in mpg and he is right there at the top.
