All Things Gophers 2022-23 Schedule Thread

SelectionSunday

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
22,901
Reaction score
1,341
Points
113
A final look at the Gophers schedule with opponents final 2022 NET in parentheses. Big Ten dates TBD.

MINNESOTA GOPHERS
Average Non-Conference NET (10/2329):
232.9
Average Conference NET (20/1086): 54.3
Average Overall NET (30/3415): 113.833
NCAA Qualifiers: 15

Nov. 7: WESTERN MICHIGAN (329)
Nov. 11: SAINT FRANCIS-NY (321)
Nov. 14: DEPAUL (103)
Nov. 18: CENTRAL MICHIGAN (318)
Nov. 21: vs. Cal Baptist (222)
Nov. 23: vs. Southern Illinois (137)/UNLV (97)
Nov. 28: @ Virginia Tech (22)
Dec. 11: MISSISSIPPI STATE (60)
Dec. 14: ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (352)
Dec. 22: CHICAGO (340)
Dec. 29: ALCORN (262)

ILLINOIS* (15)
@ Illinois* (15)
INDIANA* (44)
IOWA* (14)

MARYLAND* (90)
@ Maryland* (90)
MICHIGAN* (27)
@ Michigan* (27)
@ Michigan State* (38)

NEBRASKA* (145)
@ Nebraska* (145)
@ Northwestern* (91)
@ Ohio State* (23)
PENN STATE* (88)
PURDUE* (12)
@ Purdue* (12)
RUTGERS* (80)
@ Rutgers* (80)
WISCONSIN* (25)
@ Wisconsin* (25)


March 8-12: Big Ten Tournament
 




60's Guy

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2010
Messages
6,703
Reaction score
1,759
Points
113
That is A LOT of lousy teams. Must not have been able to schedule the 6 teams lower than Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Not that it should be the goal of how you schedule but how long do we stay undefeated?
Even with this schedule? 2 and 0, 5 and 0, or 7 and 0?
 


Gophers7633

Active member
Joined
Feb 9, 2017
Messages
468
Reaction score
167
Points
43
Not that it should be the goal of how you schedule but how long do we stay undefeated?
Even with this schedule? 2 and 0, 5 and 0, or 7 and 0?

It all depends on expectation. If we believe to be a team that will be on the bubble(which I think is my expectation), we can't afford anything other than a 10-1 OOC record. Going 3-1 against Miss St, DePaul, VT and UNLV(assuming we play them in the MTE title game) is a must. It wouldn't surprise me to see us end up with one of the worst OOC SoS's in the country(like in the 330's +). With that being the case, I think we would need to get to 12/13 wins in the B10 to feel safe about making the tournament if we end up with 0/1 losses OOC. 22-9(12-8) would be interesting to see where that puts us metric-wise heading into the B10 tournament.
 

goldenboy

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 25, 2008
Messages
1,121
Reaction score
349
Points
83
It looks like a schedule a last place team would put together. Gotta find a few wins somewhere, so play the Sisters of the Poor.
 


leib0039

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2019
Messages
955
Reaction score
1,330
Points
93
I dont actually know if its Ben, Coyle, 50-50 who sets the schedule but to me this is unacceptable. I think most knew making the tourney year 2 (esp without Fox now) was unlikely but now it feels almost impossible. Our OOC SOS is going to be among the 5 worst in the country which comes back to bite you as a bubble team. Last year were 6-1 in Q3 and 5-0 in Q4, figure this year we might play 9 Q4 games. Our net ranking is likely to be around 100 (unless we REALLY surprise this year at which point the bubble wouldnt be in play anyway). It doesnt seem like a big deal but playing say team 225 vs 325 makes a pretty big difference at the end of the year. Im not saying we need Duke/KU/AZ on the schedule but how about like Longwood or Winthrop not Chicago St and StF NY
 




gopherguy15

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 25, 2017
Messages
574
Reaction score
371
Points
63
I rarely get too caught up with non-conference schedules, but I'm a little dumbfounded with the mid-major selections this year. When it comes to scheduling the 'easy' opponents, coaches are always trying to 'game the NET' by staying away from teams that have big roster turnover, avoiding those that always end up 300+, checking previous conference standings, etc. It's not a science and involves some guessing, but as a power conference team you do your best to inflate your NET profile, regardless if you're a sure-fire NCAA tournament team or not. The NCAA posts the last three years of the NET on their site (most recent to oldest)...

Chicago St - 340, 346, 353
Ark Pine Bluff - 352, 342, 348
Alcorn St - 262, 329, 324
Western Mich - 329, 301, 235
Central Mich - 318, 307, 198

The top three are annual NET tankers. It's pretty easy to see you stay away from those teams or schedule only one per year. And when it comes to the Michigan teams, they are simply heading in the wrong direction. There are plenty of mid-majors out there that typically fall in the 200-275 NET range. I don't know why they are not trying to schedule those teams instead...
 

goldenboy

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 25, 2008
Messages
1,121
Reaction score
349
Points
83
The guy Tubby had on his staff (Joe somebody?) really knew how to schedule non-con opponents. Winnable but not NET killers.
 

GopherBlood666

Well-known member
Joined
May 17, 2019
Messages
2,125
Reaction score
1,657
Points
113
I dont actually know if its Ben, Coyle, 50-50 who sets the schedule but to me this is unacceptable. I think most knew making the tourney year 2 (esp without Fox now) was unlikely but now it feels almost impossible. Our OOC SOS is going to be among the 5 worst in the country which comes back to bite you as a bubble team. Last year were 6-1 in Q3 and 5-0 in Q4, figure this year we might play 9 Q4 games. Our net ranking is likely to be around 100 (unless we REALLY surprise this year at which point the bubble wouldnt be in play anyway). It doesnt seem like a big deal but playing say team 225 vs 325 makes a pretty big difference at the end of the year. Im not saying we need Duke/KU/AZ on the schedule but how about like Longwood or Winthrop not Chicago St and StF NY
If we can't make the dance based on our conference resume, we probably don't deserve to be dancing. Non-con probably makes a big difference in a one or two bid league, we have an entire conference slate to prove we belong. We hired Ben to win big, not limp in based on non-con success.
 



Ope3

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 12, 2008
Messages
4,121
Reaction score
2,212
Points
113
A final look at the Gophers schedule with opponents final 2022 NET in parentheses. Big Ten dates TBD.

MINNESOTA GOPHERS
Average Non-Conference NET (10/2329):
232.9
Average Conference NET (20/1086): 54.3
Average Overall NET (30/3415): 113.833
NCAA Qualifiers: 15

Nov. 7: WESTERN MICHIGAN (329)
Nov. 11: SAINT FRANCIS-NY (321)
Nov. 14: DEPAUL (103)
Nov. 18: CENTRAL MICHIGAN (318)
Nov. 21: vs. Cal Baptist (222)
Nov. 23: vs. Southern Illinois (137)/UNLV (97)
Nov. 28: @ Virginia Tech (22)
Dec. 11: MISSISSIPPI STATE (60)
Dec. 14: ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (352)
Dec. 22: CHICAGO (340)
Dec. 29: ALCORN (262)

P U.
 

2nd Degree Gopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 26, 2008
Messages
1,889
Reaction score
1,057
Points
113
The guy Tubby had on his staff (Joe somebody?) really knew how to schedule non-con opponents. Winnable but not NET killers.
Joe Esposito. Followed Tubby from stop to stop for quite awhile. He's now Associate Head Coach at UMKC.
 

Fleckoff

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 16, 2021
Messages
580
Reaction score
592
Points
93
It all depends on expectation. If we believe to be a team that will be on the bubble(which I think is my expectation), we can't afford anything other than a 10-1 OOC record. Going 3-1 against Miss St, DePaul, VT and UNLV(assuming we play them in the MTE title game) is a must. It wouldn't surprise me to see us end up with one of the worst OOC SoS's in the country(like in the 330's +). With that being the case, I think we would need to get to 12/13 wins in the B10 to feel safe about making the tournament if we end up with 0/1 losses OOC. 22-9(12-8) would be interesting to see where that puts us metric-wise heading into the B10 tournament.
If we go 10-1 in the non con, 10-10 gets us to 20 wins and will be in, as long as the one is to Va Tech or Miss State, there won't be aby horrible losses on there Part of the reason Rutgers needed to win 13 last year was they had three really bad losses in the non con. Pretty much every conference game will be a quad one or two, so if we go 10-10 in league play, avoid the bad losses in non con, you're guaranteed to pick up enough quality wins in conference to make it. This schedule will allow us to pick up some wins while we break in several new players, so I don't really have a problem with it. Next year with alot of guys coming back I hope we challenge ourselves a bit more, hopefully that's part of the plan.
 

60's Guy

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2010
Messages
6,703
Reaction score
1,759
Points
113
More important to me, in the long run it is somewhere between impossible and unlikely you have given your team the best chance to be prepared to compete in the Big Ten. You can't go from 250 to 330 NET ranked opponents to top 50 opponents in conference play and expect your guys not to crumble. It often only takes one bad three minute stretch to sabotage your fate versus a top team. There is a far greater chance you can weather the storm or bounce back if you had some prep playing good teams before conference play.
 

SelectionSunday

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
22,901
Reaction score
1,341
Points
113
More important to me, in the long run it is somewhere between impossible and unlikely you have given your team the best chance to be prepared to compete in the Big Ten. You can't go from 250 to 330 NET ranked opponents to top 50 opponents in conference play and expect your guys not to crumble. It often only takes one bad three minute stretch to sabotage your fate versus a top team. There is a far greater chance you can weather the storm or bounce back if you had some prep playing good teams before conference play.
This. 👍🏼
 

Drake University Gopher

Active member
Joined
Oct 21, 2010
Messages
425
Reaction score
136
Points
43
You guys are all worried about scheduling and I’m just worried about staying healthy. Maybe now (until we get a little more roster stability) we can get a few games to rest our players so we’re not going 6 deep in the B1G tourney. I know we’re close, but I really don’t mind this year 2.
 

fan of Ray Williams

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2009
Messages
8,561
Reaction score
2,617
Points
113
This mentioning winning 10 to even 12 games in conference play is really optimistic. Would be a huge, huge accomplishment in the 2nd year, considering a winning conference record has happened only 3 times in the past 25 years.
 

Fleckoff

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 16, 2021
Messages
580
Reaction score
592
Points
93
Miss. St an SEC team, Va Tech an ACC team, De Paul in the Big East UNLV a middle of the pack Mountain West team, plus there's two Big Ten games in December, they'll be ready for January, if they lose in the conference season it's because they weren't good enough. If Betts enrolls early that will make 5/11 scholarship guys freshmen, another three from the portal, one back from injury, leaving 2/11 guys who saw minutes with this team. They need a couple of cream puffs to figure somethings out, but if this mix is good enough which I think it is to battle for a tourney birth they'll be fine by the time conference play rolls around. with the NET, name of the game is avoid the bad loss
 

Gophers7633

Active member
Joined
Feb 9, 2017
Messages
468
Reaction score
167
Points
43
If we go 10-1 in the non con, 10-10 gets us to 20 wins and will be in, as long as the one is to Va Tech or Miss State, there won't be aby horrible losses on there Part of the reason Rutgers needed to win 13 last year was they had three really bad losses in the non con. Pretty much every conference game will be a quad one or two, so if we go 10-10 in league play, avoid the bad losses in non con, you're guaranteed to pick up enough quality wins in conference to make it. This schedule will allow us to pick up some wins while we break in several new players, so I don't really have a problem with it. Next year with alot of guys coming back I hope we challenge ourselves a bit more, hopefully that's part of the plan.

I disagree. Just look at a team like Wake Forest this past season. 10-1 OOC, 13-8 in conference(including the ACCT). Their OOC SoS was 277. Honestly, ours will be lucky to even be that good. They weren't even one of the first 4 out. I don't think the B1G will be as good as it has been with all the attrition, so we may be looking at an ACC type of year for the league. I'm gonna guess we're gonna need 22/23 wins to feel safe given our SoS is going to be pretty bad.
 

Fleckoff

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 16, 2021
Messages
580
Reaction score
592
Points
93
I disagree. Just look at a team like Wake Forest this past season. 10-1 OOC, 13-8 in conference(including the ACCT). Their OOC SoS was 277. Honestly, ours will be lucky to even be that good. They weren't even one of the first 4 out. I don't think the B1G will be as good as it has been with all the attrition, so we may be looking at an ACC type of year for the league. I'm gonna guess we're gonna need 22/23 wins to feel safe given our SoS is going to be pretty bad.
Wake Forest didn't get a lot of quad one opportunities in the ACC last year, ACC had a down regular season last year, think WCC and the MW almost had as many at large bids, Wake didn't take enough advantage of the quad one opportunities that they had where as in the Big Ten pretty much every road win is a quad one and the majority of your home games are quad one or two
 

Gophers7633

Active member
Joined
Feb 9, 2017
Messages
468
Reaction score
167
Points
43
Wake Forest didn't get a lot of quad one opportunities in the ACC last year, ACC had a down regular season last year, think WCC and the MW almost had as many at large bids, Wake didn't take enough advantage of the quad one opportunities that they had where as in the Big Ten pretty much every road win is a quad one and the majority of your home games are quad one or two

Wake had a combined 13 Q1/Q2 games last season. Our OOC schedule is most likely going to provide two such games(@VT and vs. UNLV) although UNLV being a top 100 team isn't a guarantee. I don't think the B1G will be as good as it has been the last couple years. Could be like the 2018 season, probably slightly better. I'm going to guess we'll probably get 14/15 combined Q1/Q2 games from conference play, so slightly more than Wake. But they won 23 games and didn't really come close. We could win 20 games next season and still only have 5/6 Q1/Q2 wins. Which won't be nearly enough.
 

ecoperson

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 23, 2009
Messages
1,444
Reaction score
1,707
Points
113
I believe talk of competing for a tournament bid is hugely optimistic considering there are only two players returning who played last year... only one of whom played significant minutes.

Last year was a scramble of stop gap players under an unprecedented transfer free-for-all. With nearly a completely new roster again, we will finally see whether Johnson is capable of building a competitive developmental program.

There are going to be a lot of sour faces in early 2023 if some are already expecting a middle of the pack team in the B1G this season when we just wrapped the 4th of July holiday. Let's wait until we see them on the court this fall against some live bodies before we start playing Nostradamus.
 

Gophers7633

Active member
Joined
Feb 9, 2017
Messages
468
Reaction score
167
Points
43
I believe talk of competing for a tournament bid is hugely optimistic considering there are only two players returning who played last year... only one of whom played significant minutes.

Last year was a scramble of stop gap players under an unprecedented transfer free-for-all. With nearly a completely new roster again, we will finally see whether Johnson is capable of building a competitive developmental program.

There are going to be a lot of sour faces in early 2023 if some are already expecting a middle of the pack team in the B1G this season when we just wrapped the 4th of July holiday. Let's wait until we see them on the court this fall against some live bodies before we start playing Nostradamus.

I've set my expectation as a bubble team(last 4 in, to first 8/10 out). I think we have a pretty big upgrade in talent. We should have two top 15 conference players with Battle and Garcia. We'll have more depth in the front court.

That's why I'm pretty bummed about the OOC schedule. Our SoS is going to be so awful, IMO it's going to take 12/13 wins in the B1G, to be on the bubble, and that's assuming we only lose once against Miss St, UNLV, DePaul, VT(at worse I think we should be 3-1).

Also, I think the B1G takes a step back. Indiana is probably the only team that projects to be better out of the teams that made the tournament. Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin all lost lottery picks, OSU lost 2 draft picks. Michigan lost 2 draft picks. MSU lost 3 of their 4 best players. I think its going to be a down year. We'll see how it plays out.
 

Fleckoff

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 16, 2021
Messages
580
Reaction score
592
Points
93
Wake had a combined 13 Q1/Q2 games last season. Our OOC schedule is most likely going to provide two such games(@VT and vs. UNLV) although UNLV being a top 100 team isn't a guarantee. I don't think the B1G will be as good as it has been the last couple years. Could be like the 2018 season, probably slightly better. I'm going to guess we'll probably get 14/15 combined Q1/Q2 games from conference play, so slightly more than Wake. But they won 23 games and didn't really come close. We could win 20 games next season and still only have 5/6 Q1/Q2 wins. Which won't be nearly enough.
I'll never say never, but I highly doubt the ACC Challenge will be as disastrous as it was in 2018, but out of those 13 games were 8-9 of them Quad 2? Big Ten traditionally offers way more Quad one opportunities because they tend to win head to head vs the other leagues Bottom line over the years the Big Ten continued to re load and I expect that trend to continue, programs like Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State and Sparty will continue to earn the benefit of the doubt until they don't.
 

Roland Brooks

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 5, 2010
Messages
1,889
Reaction score
981
Points
113
Aside from the two D3 games is UST’s schedule tougher?…I admit too lazy to run the numbers..
 

gopherguy15

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 25, 2017
Messages
574
Reaction score
371
Points
63
I've set my expectation as a bubble team(last 4 in, to first 8/10 out). I think we have a pretty big upgrade in talent. We should have two top 15 conference players with Battle and Garcia. We'll have more depth in the front court.

That's why I'm pretty bummed about the OOC schedule. Our SoS is going to be so awful, IMO it's going to take 12/13 wins in the B1G, to be on the bubble, and that's assuming we only lose once against Miss St, UNLV, DePaul, VT(at worse I think we should be 3-1).

Also, I think the B1G takes a step back. Indiana is probably the only team that projects to be better out of the teams that made the tournament. Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin all lost lottery picks, OSU lost 2 draft picks. Michigan lost 2 draft picks. MSU lost 3 of their 4 best players. I think its going to be a down year. We'll see how it plays out.

I'm with you, though I won't begin to guess the Big Ten wins needed. I don't mind the power 6 opponents + UNLV (assuming we beat Cal Baptist) on our non-conference schedule. Was hoping for a different Gavitt games matchup, but whatever. It's the multiple low end mid-major teams that will drag this SOS down immensely. I also think the Big Ten takes a step back this year.

We'll see how it plays out, but on paper this non-conference schedule could haunt the Gophers when February arrives and the bubble starts to take shape.
 

Gophers7633

Active member
Joined
Feb 9, 2017
Messages
468
Reaction score
167
Points
43
Aside from the two D3 games is UST’s schedule tougher?…I admit too lazy to run the numbers..

It will honestly be pretty close. The avg KenPom rating last year of the teams on their schedule is 248. For the Gophers known 10 opponents(we will play either Southern Illinois or UNLV) it is 232. But, UST has @Creighton who was rated 50 last year, and we have VT who was rated 19 last year, so they will be closer to what the other was last year, so if you flip it, the avg rating for UST would be 245 and for us it would be 235.

In the end I'm going to guess they are about the same. But they definitely have the toughest overall game with at Creighton.
 




Top Bottom