All Things 2023 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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GophersInIowa said:
I've seen some, including Phil Mackey, say they should trade Thielen and then replace him with a WR in the 1st round.

You don't draft a #2 WR in the 1st round. Crazy. I'm not against trading or dropping Thielen and drafting a WR, but you pick someone in later rounds.
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Thielen cannot be back next year. His cap # is $19 million. Unfortunately, they only save $6 million by cutting/trading him. But they have to do it. But I doubt he has any trade value. If he does it's a 7th rounder. There are quite a few WR's in FA this year. I'd wait for the 2nd waive and get a cheap veteran for $3-4 million.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I mostly agree unless Jaxon Smith-Njigba is available. I think he'll be a star and one of the safer picks at that point. Having 2 elite WR's would be huge for Cousins and a future young QB. It would be similar to having Chase and Higgins in Cincinnati.
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Yep. In that case I would consider them #1A and #1B. I can't imagine someone like him will be there at 23.
 

howeda7 said:
Thielen cannot be back next year. His cap # is $19 million. Unfortunately, they only save $6 million by cutting/trading him. But they have to do it. But I doubt he has any trade value. If he does it's a 7th rounder. There are quite a few WR's in FA this year. I'd wait for the 2nd waive and get a cheap veteran for $3-4 million.
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That's my thinking. Trade or release him, pick up a veteran for cheap and then draft a WR in rounds 4-5.
 


GophersInIowa said:
That's my thinking. Trade or release him, pick up a veteran for cheap and then draft a WR in rounds 4-5.
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There's a scenario where Theilen signing for in the ballpark of $4-$5M makes sense for both sides. I forget the contract specifics but that's how it was laid out in a Vikings podcast I was listening to a few days ago
 


Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
There's a scenario where Theilen signing for in the ballpark of $4-$5M makes sense for both sides. I forget the contract specifics but that's how it was laid out in a Vikings podcast I was listening to a few days ago
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That would be fine too. If he's willing to do that then he would be a fairly cheap veteran guy to go along with a rookie.
 

GophersInIowa said:
That would be fine too. If he's willing to do that then he would be a fairly cheap veteran guy to go along with a rookie.
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I think it was on Locked On Vikings, maybe the Monday podcast this week. He gets pretty into the weeds sometimes, more than the casual fan needs/wants to know, but sometimes some good information. Basically, there's a dollar amount for the renegotiated contract (who knows what that number is right now?) where it's beneficial for both the player and the team. Essentially it may be slightly over what he can get on the open market, but it's good for the team as well; good for both for a variety of reasons.

Anyway, his best guess was that mutual number could/would be in the $4-$5M ballpark for 2023, could be a tiny bit more, who knows. I'd have to listen to it again
 

with only 4 picks in the draft (as of now) the Vikes cannot afford to miss on any of those selections.
It's certainly possible they might trade down to acquire more picks, but that just moves you further away from being able to land a player who can make an instant impact.

and - considering all the question marks on defense, I would be surprised if they go offense with their top pick.

(but whoever they pick, they'll tell us that he was the highest-rated player on their board, and they can't believe he was still available when their pick came up......)
 

short ornery norwegian said:
with only 4 picks in the draft (as of now) the Vikes cannot afford to miss on any of those selections.
It's certainly possible they might trade down to acquire more picks, but that just moves you further away from being able to land a player who can make an instant impact.

and - considering all the question marks on defense, I would be surprised if they go offense with their top pick.

(but whoever they pick, they'll tell us that he was the highest-rated player on their board, and they can't believe he was still available when their pick came up......)
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They should trade Hunter and Cook for more picks. Hunter might even net a 1st rounder.
 



Just how bad does Eric Bienemy's baggage have to be that he can't even get remotely considered for an HC gig when there are black candidates being hired every year across the league?

There has to be even more than the fact that he's been arrested four different times. The entire league must have a laundry list of things nobody knows about at this point?

WaPo Saying WaPo Things About The Usual Stuff; NFL HC Hiring

>> "Former NFL player LeSean McCoy said last year that Bieniemy doesn’t relate well to players, either.

“There’s a reason why every year they hype him up to get a job and then when the time comes, nobody hires him because they know the type of coach he really is,” McCoy said. He added that the coach talks to players a “certain way.”

>>"John McClain appeared on OutKick 360 this week and explained how teams view the Chiefs’ staff.

“Anybody who thinks [Bieniemy is] running all that offense without Andy [Reid] having a heavy hand on it is nuts and people in the NFL know that,” McClain said. “I think the ship has sailed on Eric Bieniemy being a head coach.”
 

GophersInIowa said:
That would be fine too. If he's willing to do that then he would be a fairly cheap veteran guy to go along with a rookie.
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Wait, 2023 and 24 are the last two years (excluding the void year in 25) of Theilen's contract.

I was told that the Player's Union would not want a player to purposefully get out of their current contract in order to sign a much smaller one?

If Theilen can do this .... why can't Rodgers do exactly the same thing for some other team in 2023?
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Just how bad does Eric Bienemy's baggage have to be that he can't even get remotely considered for an HC gig when there are black candidates being hired every year across the league?

There has to be even more than the fact that he's been arrested four different times. The entire league must have a laundry list of things nobody knows about at this point?

WaPo Saying WaPo Things About The Usual Stuff; NFL HC Hiring

>> "Former NFL player LeSean McCoy said last year that Bieniemy doesn’t relate well to players, either.

“There’s a reason why every year they hype him up to get a job and then when the time comes, nobody hires him because they know the type of coach he really is,” McCoy said. He added that the coach talks to players a “certain way.”

>>"John McClain appeared on OutKick 360 this week and explained how teams view the Chiefs’ staff.

“Anybody who thinks [Bieniemy is] running all that offense without Andy [Reid] having a heavy hand on it is nuts and people in the NFL know that,” McClain said. “I think the ship has sailed on Eric Bieniemy being a head coach.”
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The last team that took a flyer on an Andy Reid OC was the Vikings with Brad Childress. That might be a red flag to teams about Reid OCs.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Wait, 2023 and 24 are the last two years (excluding the void year in 25) of Theilen's contract.

I was told that the Player's Union would not want a player to purposefully get out of their current contract in order to sign a much smaller one?

If Theilen can do this .... why can't Rodgers do exactly the same thing for some other team in 2023?
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Because Theilen knows if he doesn't take a pay cut, he will be released and his value as a free agent is $4 million or less. Aaron Rodgers is in no danger of being released.
 



Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Just how bad does Eric Bienemy's baggage have to be that he can't even get remotely considered for an HC gig when there are black candidates being hired every year across the league?

There has to be even more than the fact that he's been arrested four different times. The entire league must have a laundry list of things nobody knows about at this point?

WaPo Saying WaPo Things About The Usual Stuff; NFL HC Hiring

>> "Former NFL player LeSean McCoy said last year that Bieniemy doesn’t relate well to players, either.

“There’s a reason why every year they hype him up to get a job and then when the time comes, nobody hires him because they know the type of coach he really is,” McCoy said. He added that the coach talks to players a “certain way.”

>>"John McClain appeared on OutKick 360 this week and explained how teams view the Chiefs’ staff.

“Anybody who thinks [Bieniemy is] running all that offense without Andy [Reid] having a heavy hand on it is nuts and people in the NFL know that,” McClain said. “I think the ship has sailed on Eric Bieniemy being a head coach.”
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Yeah there's something that's keeping teams away from him.
 

howeda7 said:
Because Theilen knows if he doesn't take a pay cut, he will be released and his value as a free agent is $4 million or less. Aaron Rodgers is in no danger of being released.
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apparently Thielen was on with Pat McAfee and said that he and the Vikings are "working through some stuff." Thielen was quoted as saying "They're going to try to do something, but we'll see."

the deadline is mid-March for when Thielen's base salary becomes fully guaranteed.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
apparently Thielen was on with Pat McAfee and said that he and the Vikings are "working through some stuff." Thielen was quoted as saying "They're going to try to do something, but we'll see."

the deadline is mid-March for when Thielen's base salary becomes fully guaranteed.
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I don't mind keeping him at the right price. But that price is low.
 

howeda7 said:
Because Theilen knows if he doesn't take a pay cut, he will be released and his value as a free agent is $4 million or less. Aaron Rodgers is in no danger of being released.
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So there is no rule against a player choosing to sign a contract for (significantly) less money than is remaining due on their current contract. Nor is there such a thing of "the player's union wouldn't want/allow that".

I can see where any cash that has already changed hands must count against the team's cap somehow, in some year(s).

But if Theilen can just hand-waive away any remaining due dollars (that haven't already been paid to him) and say "... nah, keep it. Just let me sign a one-year deal for $4M and we'll call it good", then so can any player, if they so choose.


What am I missing with Rodgers, going to say, Las Vegas?


I don't know if he would need to sign a new contract with GB and then be traded, or be traded and then sign a new contract with LV, in such a hypothetical. But clearly it could be done.

GB would still be on the hook for any cash they've already paid him upfront that hasn't hit their cap yet, in some way that is congruent with the fine print of the rules.
 

Gophers_4life said:
So there is no rule against a player choosing to sign a contract for (significantly) less money than is remaining due on their current contract. Nor is there such a thing of "the player's union wouldn't want/allow that".

I can see where any cash that has already changed hands must count against the team's cap somehow, in some year(s).

But if Theilen can just hand-waive away any remaining due dollars (that haven't already been paid to him) and say "... nah, keep it. Just let me sign a one-year deal for $4M and we'll call it good", then so can any player, if they so choose.


What am I missing with Rodgers, going to say, Las Vegas?


I don't know if he would need to sign a new contract with GB and then be traded, or be traded and then sign a new contract with LV, in such a hypothetical. But clearly it could be done.

GB would still be on the hook for any cash they've already paid him upfront that hasn't hit their cap yet, in some way that is congruent with the fine print of the rules.
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Aaron Rodgers is to due make something like $40 million next year. Can he extend the contract and re-structure to make the cap # better if someone trades for him? Yes. Is he going to say "I love San Francisco so much, I'd like you to cut my salary from $40 million to $10 million"? No. That's not going to happen. Is there a "rule" against it? No. Is it a real thing that could happen? Also no.

Theilen's base cap # is $19 million next year. The dead $$ is $13 million, so the Vikings only save $6 million cutting him. For that reason, they are probably willing to pay him more than any other team would, but still not what they are under contract for. So it behooves both them and Theilen to work something out that involves a substantial pay cut for him but is still more than he will get anywhere else.

It helps that he apparently wants to stay. Often, players in that situation refuse a pay cut and prefer to go elsewhere even if they know they will get less $$.
 

howeda7 said:
Aaron Rodgers is to due make something like $40 million next year. Can he extend the contract and re-structure to make the cap # better if someone trades for him? Yes. Is he going to say "I love San Francisco so much, I'd like you to cut my salary from $40 million to $10 million"? No. That's not going to happen. Is there a "rule" against it? No. Is it a real thing that could happen? Also no.

Theilen's base cap # is $19 million next year. The dead $$ is $13 million, so the Vikings only save $6 million cutting him. For that reason, they are probably willing to pay him more than any other team would, but still not what they are under contract for. So it behooves both them and Theilen to work something out that involves a substantial pay cut for him but is still more than he will get anywhere else.

It helps that he apparently wants to stay. Often, players in that situation refuse a pay cut and prefer to go elsewhere even if they know they will get less $$.
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This. I would add in the fact that Thielen's remaining guaranteed $ owed to him is low as compared to Rodgers. If the Vikes can't work out a deal and can't find a trade partner (who would need to either take on his current contract, or re-structure his current one), they would need to either pay him the salary agreed to in his contract in 2023 (not gonna happen), or cut him. If they cut him, they still owe him all remaining guaranteed $ left in his contract and are hit by dead cap money in 23 and 24. The amount of guaranteed money left in Thielen's deal is around $7mil if my math is correct. The bigger issue isn't what they owe him, it's what the cap hit is, which is predicated on his overall contract, not just his guaranteed money. Rodgers' contract has too much guaranteed money left, and the cap hit is obscene, so the Packers can't just cut him. Apples and oranges situation, and it has nothing to do with what the players union "will allow". They don't predicate any individual deal, per se. It's not a traditional union, in the sense that all players know they have a small window to make money, so they do everything they can to maximize the amount of money they collect in that window. The player's union is there to negotiate FA terms, revenue sharing split, vet minimums, off-season and in-season player work day requirements, retirement accounts, retired player health benefits, etc.
 

To my point about Rodgers. The cash he is owed, and the dead cap hit is astronomical. This is what happens when teams kick the can down the road and "restructure" bad contracts and make them worse ones down the road (hello, Adam Thielen and Harrison Smith). GMs and coaches mostly live a year-by-year existence, and worry about the future down the road, if they're still around then.

Capture1.JPG
 

Remaining guaranteed money that hasn't been paid to a player doesn't count if the player signs a new contract.

Correct?

If you release them and they don't play again, then yes you still owe them that money.
 

I don't pretend to understand the nuances of NFL and NBA contracts.

that is why pro teams pay millions of dollars to front-office guys with computers who live and breathe this stuff 24/7.

but - even if a player might in certain circumstances be willing to waive money he was owed, every other player and agent in the league would be furious for setting a bad precedent. it ain't gonna happen.

if you agree to a contract, you live with the consequences, good and bad. ask the Wild about dealing with dead cap space. they're hosed until they get Suter and Parise's dead cap $ off the books.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
but - even if a player might in certain circumstances be willing to waive money he was owed, every other player and agent in the league would be furious for setting a bad precedent. it ain't gonna happen.
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We're literally discussing this exact thing happening with Theilen.

I would guess it happens every year.
 

Darvin Cook contract cap space freed up.

Thielen restructuring now.

Harrison Smith is still worth it.

I think Kendricks has a good season in a 4-3 scheme.

The defensive line will be effective in a 4-3.

Spend cap space on defense.

Last season Vikings used two top picks o. Defensive backs who were hurt. Assume they will contribute this season.

Looks fine to me now that the horrible 3-4 defense is gone.
 


Bfan said:
Darvin Cook contract cap space freed up.

Thielen restructuring now.

Harrison Smith is still worth it.

I think Kendricks has a good season in a 4-3 scheme.

The defensive line will be effective in a 4-3.

Spend cap space on defense.

Last season Vikings used two top picks o. Defensive backs who were hurt. Assume they will contribute this season.

Looks fine to me now that the horrible 3-4 defense is gone.
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Kendricks and Smith have been done for 2 years. Slow and always late to the play.

Good grief!
 

kg21 said:
Kendricks and Smith have been done for 2 years. Slow and always late to the play.

Good grief!
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That may be. They are cap cut targets for a reason.

So I took the contrarian position there.

I think they still have some football in them.

And the team has other holes. Maybe put them off a year.

You may be right and probably more likely.
 

ESPN's way too early 2023 Power Rankings

9. Minnesota Vikings​


2022 record: 13-4

Offseason in three or fewer words: Overhaul the lineup

An atypical combination of big cap numbers, expiring contracts, aging veterans and diminishing performance means the Vikings will need to make some significant changes to their starting lineup in the coming months. Six of their existing starters will be at least 31 when the 2023 season starts, and quarterback Kirk Cousins (35) is the only one who is assured of a return. As many as nine defensive starting spots could change hands. It will be a massive effort. -- Kevin Seifert

www.espn.com

Way-too-early NFL Power Rankings: Where do the Super Bowl champs land?

So long, 2022 NFL season -- we're looking ahead to 2023. Which teams rank in our early top 10? And which teams have fallen?
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 

Iceland12 said:
ESPN's way too early 2023 Power Rankings

9. Minnesota Vikings​


2022 record: 13-4

Offseason in three or fewer words: Overhaul the lineup

An atypical combination of big cap numbers, expiring contracts, aging veterans and diminishing performance means the Vikings will need to make some significant changes to their starting lineup in the coming months. Six of their existing starters will be at least 31 when the 2023 season starts, and quarterback Kirk Cousins (35) is the only one who is assured of a return. As many as nine defensive starting spots could change hands. It will be a massive effort. -- Kevin Seifert

www.espn.com

Way-too-early NFL Power Rankings: Where do the Super Bowl champs land?

So long, 2022 NFL season -- we're looking ahead to 2023. Which teams rank in our early top 10? And which teams have fallen?
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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9=1 in the NFC North
 


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